Mystery Theater: GOFAUX artifacts and Germanic bankster tragedy

Fri, Sep 6, 2013 - 4:09pm

As you may have noticed, there has been a bit of discussion lately about the GOFO – the Gold Forward Offered Rate, published by the LBMA and generated by the member banks. According to the LBMA, it “represent the rates at which dealers will lend gold on a swap basis against US dollars”.

In more detail from the official LBMA FAQ (emphasis mine):

“The contributors are the Market Making Members of the LBMA: The Bank of Nova Scotia–ScotiaMocatta, Barclays Bank Plc, Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC Bank USA London Branch, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase Bank, Société Générale and UBS AG.

The means are set at 11 am London time. These are the rates shown on the LBMA website. To show derived gold lease rates, the GOFO means are subtracted from the corresponding values of the LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rates) US dollar means. These rates are also available on the LBMA website.

At 10.30 am London time, the Reuters page is cleared of all rates. Contributors then enter their rates for all time periods. A minimum of six contributors must enter rates in order for the means to be calculated. At 11.00 am, the mean is established for each maturity by discarding the highest and lowest quotations in each period and averaging the remaining rates.

They provide a basis for some finance and loan agreements as well as for the settlement of gold Interest Rate Swaps.”

All of the numbers displayed in the charts below can be found at these sources:

LBMA Gold Forwards

LBMA Gold Fixings

SPDR GLD Historical Data

The more recent activity of the various maturities can be followed here:

  Image cannot be displayed

The longer-term picture looks thus:

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Unsatisfied with the clarity these charts provide as to HOW exactly GOFO may presage up- or downturns in gold price (which is a perennially popular, yet to my feeble mind insufficiently explained 'truism'), I decided to play around with the numbers a little bit. Everything that follows on this topic is pure ‘sophistry’ for lack of a better term. None of the metrics displayed have been sanctioned by any precious metals gurus, analysts, bankers or economists (that I know of – though examples of similar approaches would be very welcome).

So, what is a lad to do when trying to analyze a trend over time, and the straight numbers don’t offer clarity? Why, make the dataset more complicated, of course! What I’ve done below is remarkably simple (and only debatably useful) – calculated the per-ounce cost of borrowing gold on a swap basis against USD, adjusted to the prevailing gold price at the time. Behold: GOFAUX™

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In the interest of saving a bit of time, I will spare you the other (less productive) rabbit holes I went down and try to cut straight to the chase. But one interjection is needed – why plot the data only from 2000? A strange little set of things happened from 1999 onwards, timeline courtesy of Bloomberg:

May 1999: Bank of England announces sales of gold reserves in five auctions.

August 1999: Gold falls to low of $251.95

September 1999: First Central Bank Gold Agreement announced where 15 European central banks including the European Central Bank agreed to limit collective sales to 2,000 metric tons over five years through 2004.

2003: First gold-backed exchange-traded fund started.

March 2004: Second Central Bank Gold Agreement limiting collective sales of European central banks to 2,500 tons through 2009.

November 2004: SPDR Gold Trust, world’s biggest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, created.

So, suspending disbelief for a moment, please consider the following in light of the fact that you are reading the ramblings of a dope with a spreadsheet and a penchant for goal-seeking patterns that he WANTS to be able to see:

  • There is an odd similarity in the shape of the GOFAUX™ (daily GOFO x daily gold PM London fix price) curve and that of the prevalent gold prices ca. 1358 days later (the average of the timespans between ‘peaks’ and ‘lows’ on the chart).
  • Any and all economic, financial, demographic data – heck ANY data controlled and disseminated by .gov, banks and MSM is suspect. The very basis of all of this could very well be mere fantasy based on garbage in, garbage out.
  • There could be NO rational connection between DAILY gyrations in GOFO and gold prices from 4.5 years ago to the activity of the gold markets TODAY. Could there? This has all got to be irrelevant, arbitrary conjecture from a dilettante.
  • Well, I thought there has GOT to be some fallacy involved in my train of thought. There MUST be a fundamental (and quite simple) obvious explanation for seeing this. And there very well may be, I look forward to your thoughts on this.

    But taking this madness one step further, I did one more transformation – I shifted the dates for this arbitrary and artificial GOFO/ounce metric by the average number of days between peaks/troughs ‘observed’ (capriciously picked by eyeballing the chart in haste, due to a lack of graphing/analytic software to plot and capture ACTUAL highs and lows, slopes, differences and retracements). The chart below displays gold price in ‘real’ time, and lined up with it shows the GOFAUX average values from 1358 trading days prior.

      Image cannot be displayed

    The correlation coefficient for the 1,130 data points involved: 0.9063. If the thought process and underlying data could be considered sound, the odds of this occurring by chance would be VERY CLOSELY asymptotic to zero.

    In the interest of getting this posted, further detailed speculation on this imaginary and potentially specious metric will have to wait for another day. But some baseline assumptions/questions:

  • Is it POSSIBLE that entities (banks, dealers, hedge funds, ETFs, sovereigns and agents of all of the above) engaged in MASSIVE amounts of gold leasing and lending in the 2004-2008 timeframe, creating (unreported) long-term lending agreements with (unreported) swap/lease rates, with a maturity of, oh I dunno, 5 years or so?
  • Could the current activity we are witnessing in both gold prices and GOFO rates be in part due to the expiration of these contracts on a very literal, day-by-day basis? What, exactly WOULD we expect to be happening if this were the case? How would registered/disclosed gold inventories change? What exactly would the lessor and the lender be doing, what specific assets would they be moving (or not moving) upon reaching the maturity of these make-believe long-term gold lending contracts?
  • GOFO can clearly go negative, while actual gold price cannot (at least in accounting terms). The correlation depicted above HAS to break at some point between now and 4.5 years from now (when the negative average GOFO rate would drag the GOFAUX in to subzero values). WHEN, exactly, can this be expected to occur?
  • Completely non-sequitur (?) secondary mystery of the week -- question for the German-speaking Turdites (and perhaps Jim Willie's source):

    There is a potentially very bizarre (though of course possibly explained via completely mundane reasons) scandal of sorts in the German/Swiss financial sector that caught my eye. There was an article (and embedded compilation of links to background stories) that sounds like something straight out of Jim Willie’s accounts:

    “New details are emerging about the suicide of Pierre Wauthier, the 53-year old CFO of Zurich Insurance, that can only be bad for Josef Ackermann, his boss and the former CEO of Deutsche Bank. After Wauthier took his own life last week Ackermann promptly resigned as Zurich’s chairman, saying it was because Wauthier’s family was blaming him—an explanation that seemed dubious to some. Now, various reports published over the last 24 hours have revealed a troubled relationship between the two men. […]

    The CFO’s body was discovered by police on Monday, August 26, when he didn’t show up for work. According to the Wall Street Journal, Ackermann called a meeting of Zurich’s board of directors the next day. During the meeting, he read Wauthier’s suicide note, which repeatedly heaped blame on Ackermann and his tough management style. Ackermann was apparently deeply affected, and wouldn’t respond to directors’ phone calls after the meeting adjourned.

    When the meeting commenced the next afternoon, Ackermann dropped a bombshell: he announced his resignation, effective immediately.

      Image cannot be displayed

    (Pierre on the left, Herr JosefA on the right)

    Think of it this way, as a matter of perspective – JamieD resigns from the top dog spot at JPM to enjoy his spoils of war, and to take the ‘golf-intensive’ job of replacing aging Uncle Warren as the head of Berkshire Hathaway. Two years later, instead of resigning in protest (and taking an even-better option at another financial powerhouse), the CFO of the latter company commits suicide and scrawls a dying condemnation of the top bankster in his own blood.

    Is it just ME that thinks this is EXTREMELY unusual for Swiss financial circles? That there may be more behind this tragedy of avoidable, violent catharsis presumably stemming from gargantuan hubris on the part of Uncle Josef? A true moral conflict on the part of Pierre coming out of the realization of what he had done (presumably under the direction/pressure of JosefA)? Bankster infighting collateral damage, aimed at removing JosefA much as DSK was publicly drawn-and-quartered – and Pierre was a mere bishop sacrificed to checkmate the King (aka guided-projectile Arkancide)?

    About the Author


    Green LanternMr. Fix
    Sep 6, 2013 - 9:35pm

    Mr. Fix "but the charts and

    Mr. Fix "but the charts and numbers don't mean squat"

    Are you sure you know enough about the subject to make such a sweeping generalization? I'd suggest it depends on who is reading it.

    There are about a 1000 people a day (that's the last number I saw reported) reading the set up in the forums because the individual who started it, AM, as well as other contributors have done some amazing work using charts but they are not using standard TA. Have you visited that forum?

    Go to this page and read fotoscanners comment. That's alot of being right for something doesn't mean squat.

    If you decide to read any of the reading recommendations in that forum that were put out in it's early stages, you would find out that there is a limit to how much human intervention can have upon a cycle. While they can effect the trend, they can not eradicate a cycle. And that can be read in the charts. I can't read tea leafs, I can't read lines on a palm and I'm not much better at deciphering charts. Although I can't paint, I know a good piece of art when i see it.

    "You are assumed to control events. You say, "Go' and men go: 'Come,' and they come. You can arrange, within measure, that armies take or leave the field. In extremes you can say, "this man may live; that man, die.' You achieve a measure of order, for that is the condition of power. but i do not see that events follow your will." Zeus summarizes "Power Exists. At any given minute, any given man may be completely in its grip. Or, for that matter, kingdoms or continents. When I say you take too seriously, I mean you assume it's lasting effects can be willed by it's holder. This is an illusion."

    Sep 6, 2013 - 9:27pm

    Mr Fix

    Posting this here, instead of posting on the (old, dead) thread where it occurred:

    Quoth Mr Fix, in an attempt to make the case herewith that society is collapsing: "Just the people I know who like to restore old cars that I see at the local car show on weekends, are all retirees, and many of them are pushing 80, and then notice, that there is nobody coming along to replace them. Who is going to fix these gorgeous cars when they finally die? Their own children are not even interested in them. At least when I was in high school, some of my classmates and I actually liked to build things. Nobody even wants to know how they work anymore."

    BFD. Stop talking like an old fart, wringing your hands... "what ARE these young people coming to?!" {pout pout}. Listen: Young people have PLENTY of energy and interest in building things of all kinds. You're just too ignorant and blind to be aware of WHAT, specifically. Sorry to be so harsh, but it pisses me off sometimes to read your rambling rants, issued as though they were providing some great insight into our social situation.

    Who cares about your old cars? Well, YOU do, of course. But why should young people care about them? They're YESTERDAY. They represent a dying age. Young people are interested in other things. Look up the maker movement: people that are interested in MAKING THINGS. ALL KINDS OF THINGS. WITH THEIR HANDS, AND TOOLS. It is a big and growing movement, with magazines, forums, expos in major cities, shared maker spaces (shops) opening up in most cities, etc. Look up computer programming, web programming, crowdsourcing, crowdfunding, collaborative work, networking, the peer to peer movement, the open source movement, nanotechnology, 3-D printing, social media, and much more -- all of the vital new things that new generations are preoccupied with, and the things that are really driving progress today. Things that are MUCH bigger and vastly more significant than your fucking old museum-piece cars. Read Wired magazine. Read Read Listen to ted talks - Spend some time on and and (Yes, there's a proportion of shallow trash on the links I just suggested. Welcome to the big broad world called POPULAR CULTURE. There's a lot to it. Trash, and non-trash.) Break out of your stultifying narrowness and ignorance. Turn off the right-wing talk radio, close down the Godlikeproductions tab, and expand your horizons.

    (Oh yes: there is a place for museum-piece cars. I am all in favor of preserving such relics, very carefully, for posterity. That is the role of museums and other such collections.)

    More Mr FIx: "As a populous, we've been herded into big cities, to live in tall buildings, where neighbors do not even talk to each other, we can walk through our entire day, see hundreds of faces, and not be able to connect a single name to any of them. This is a societal collapse, masses without friends, without family, without even people to talk to, lonely, and isolated, in a collapse, they will have no one to turn to."

    What the F are you talking about? What city are you talking about? No, wait: I think you're talking about SUBURBIA, NOT CITIES. Real CITIES are not like that AT ALL. Real CITIES are intimate places, where people (most people, anyway) see familiar faces every day, scores of them, and have dozens of people to whom then can turn. Have you ever lived in a real city, or visited one? This is in contrast to rural life, in which, typically, there is much less social contact. Also in contrast to suburban life, which is notorious for its isolation and asociality.

    Sep 6, 2013 - 8:49pm


    The correlation coefficient for the 1,130 data points involved: 0.9063. If the thought process and underlying data could be considered sound, the odds of this occurring by chance would be VERY CLOSELY asymptotic to zero.

    Not sure what you mean by thought process being correct, but where do you come up with the odds of this occurring by chance being zero? I see charts comparing previous time series with current time series from time to time, and a correlation coefficient of .9063 doesn't seem extreme to me.

    On the "correlation does not imply causation" thing, what I would look out for in this case is spurious correlation, that is it may due to a third unknown casual variable. For example, say we record monthly number of homicides x and the monthly number of religious meetings y for several cities of varying sizes, the data will probably indicate a high correlation. But it is the fluctuation of a third variable (city population) that causes x and y to vary in the same direction.

    Is it POSSIBLE that entities (banks, dealers, hedge funds, ETFs, sovereigns and agents of all of the above) engaged in MASSIVE amounts of gold leasing and lending in the 2004-2008 timeframe, creating (unreported) long-term lending agreements with (unreported) swap/lease rates, with a maturity of, oh I dunno, 5 years or so?

    Anything is possible, a better question is it likely. I'm not sure why someone would lease gold for five years, maybe a gold miner would to pay for exploration costs, only thing I can think of.

    Could the current activity we are witnessing in both gold prices and GOFO rates be in part due to the expiration of these contracts on a very literal, day-by-day basis? What, exactly WOULD we expect to be happening if this were the case? How would registered/disclosed gold inventories change? What exactly would the lessor and the lender be doing, what specific assets would they be moving (or not moving) upon reaching the maturity of these make-believe long-term gold lending contracts?

    Why do you call these make-believe contracts? Why wouldn't the lender want his gold back? If the lender didn't demand his gold back, why would lessor re-lease the contract at these low/negative rates? I don't understand the argument saying low/negative rates translates into tight physical demand, I'd think it would be the exact opposite. I picture the lease rates correlation to physical demand working as this guy explains in this article.

    In November 2006, I remember like it was yesterday, I walked into my office on a Monday morning and platinum was up $200. It had jumped from the $1200 level to over $1400 dollars. This was more than a 16% move from one day to the next. The chatter and market reports back then were that a bank trader was short a large amount of platinum, and was being forced to deliver on his short position on that Monday by other players who had got wind of his problems, and took the opportunity to profit from it.

    Because his short position was so large, and because the platinum market is so small, his covering drove the price up. This happened because typically in the platinum market, much of the metal is out on leases. It would take some time to get all the metal back to make the delivery.

    In this circumstance there were industrial users who knew their leases were coming due at that specific time period too. Because of this large short covering in platinum, the price shot up not just on the commodity but on the platinum lease rate as well. That day in fact, the industrial customer that was expecting to pay 3% to 4% for a 1-year lease was being offered at between 100% to 120% per annum! The consumer had no choice but either to return the platinum they'd leased, buy it outright, or accept the new rate.

    In this instance, the best way to manage the situation was to lease day by day. As it worked out, the market calmed down and three days later the lease rates were essentially back to normal. But if the industrial consumer had decided to buy it at that elevated price level, he would have suffered a major – and unnecessary – rise to his costs. By the end of that week, the platinum price had also retreated.

    Anyways, great article, one of my all time favorites here, I just started taking grad school statistics a couple weeks ago, using math to make sense of the data is the only way to figure out what's really going on/making the market move IMO.

    Sep 6, 2013 - 8:46pm

    The Moody Blues: Departure

    Give this a listen...

    The Moody Blues: Departure-Ride My SeeSaw.

    >>>>>>>>Clickable Zoomed In Grid Map<<<<<<<<<<<

    The Garden of Earthly Delights ca. 1500 - Bosch

    Amboy Dukes, The Journey to the Center of the Mind ~joey .wmv

    Mr. Fix
    Sep 6, 2013 - 8:10pm

    "Against all of humanity."



    Aeschylus stated, In war, truth is the first casualty.”
    The Third World War has clearly already begun, as it is a war being waged by the global shadow banking system against all of humanity. [Read more...]

    Sep 6, 2013 - 7:49pm

    Is Iran planning revenge strikes if US hits Syria?

    Is Iran planning revenge strikes if US hits Syria?

    Published September 06, 2013

      Image cannot be displayed

    U.S. officials have intercepted intelligence indicating Iran recently urged militants to strike the U.S. embassy in Baghdad -- raising the possibility that the country is looking to orchestrate revenge attacks if the United States launches missiles at its ally Syria.

    The Wall Street Journal first reported that the U.S. had intercepted an order from Iran to militants in Iraq, telling them to attack if there is a Syria strike.

    A senior military source told Fox News that there is indeed such an intelligence intercept, but the intelligence has not been completely vetted.

    Still, a separate senior U.S. official said it's quite common for Iran to be giving orders to hit the embassy in Baghdad. When rockets hit the compound, the orders are often traced back to elements in Iran.

    This official said he was not aware of any increased security at the Baghdad embassy, or any reductions in embassy staff, as a protective measure. The Baghdad embassy remains the largest, most heavily fortified embassy in the world.

    Amid the heightened tensions, though, the U.S. is taking other precautionary measures. The warnings and precautions underscore the risk the U.S. could be taking by launching a military hit on a Middle East country embroiled in civil war.

    The State Department on Friday ordered nonessential American diplomats and the families of staffers at the U.S. Embassy in Beirut to leave Lebanon immediately due to security concerns as Congress debates whether to authorize an attack on Syria. The department also authorized the voluntary departure of diplomats and families at the U.S. Consulate in Adana, Turkey, which is the closest American diplomatic post to Syria in Turkey.

    In a new travel warning for Lebanon, the department said it had instructed nonessential staffers to leave Beirut and urged private American citizens to depart the country "due to threats to U.S. mission facilities and personnel."

    "The potential in Lebanon for a spontaneous upsurge in violence remains," it said.

    The step had been under consideration since last week when Obama said he was contemplating military action against the Syrian government for its alleged chemical weapons attack last month that the administration said killed more than 1,400 people near Damascus.

    Hezbollah, an Assad ally that has sent fighters into Syria, is based in Lebanon and the department noted that Hezbollah "maintains a strong presence in parts of the southern suburbs of Beirut, portions of the Bekaa Valley and areas in South Lebanon."

    The Journal report also quoted U.S. officials saying they fear Hezbollah could attack the U.S. embassy in Beirut.

    The message purportedly from Iran was intercepted recently, according to the Journal, and came from the head of the Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force. It reportedly went to Shiite militia groups in Iraq.

    Read more:

    Mr. Fix
    Sep 6, 2013 - 7:29pm

    I just love all the scandal and conspiracy,

    but the charts and numbers don't mean squat.

    Sep 6, 2013 - 7:27pm

    The Orwellian Debate Over Isolationism

    The Orwellian Debate Over Isolationism

    By James R. Holmes

    September 6, 2013

      Image cannot be displayed


    Amazing, isn't it, how much of political discourse comes down to hanging an unflattering label on your opponents? After all, if people assume your opponent is a nasty so-and-so of one type or another, no one will listen to him. You win by default. This practice infuriated George Orwell, mainly, it seems, because it involved using words imprecisely. Name-calling debased and impoverished the English language, whereas restoring clarity and precision to the language was Orwell's lifelong quest.

    Exhibit A: the term fascist. Orwell published a hilarious essay in the Tribune in 1944, showing that serious people had called every major political movement in English society fascist. Conservatives, socialists, godless commies, pro-war types, war resisters — all were fascists!

    A term that describes everything describes nothing. From this Orwell concluded that the term had become "essentially meaningless." He returned to this point in his classic essay on "Politics and the English Language," with which I torment new students at the beginning of every term. Orwell concludes that "The word Fascism has now no meaning except in so far as it signifies 'something not desirable.'" Many different abstract words — "democracy" and so forth — likewise stand at risk of losing all meaning.

    The great George would have a field day with the debate over whether to intervene in Syria. In some quarters it appears that opposing military action qualifies a skeptic as an "isolationist." This is clearly something not desirable in the dominant reading of U.S. diplomatic history.

    Isolationism — or "isolationism, so called," in the words of University of Pennsylvania historian Walter McDougall — ran rampant in interwar America, fueled by inordinate fears of a new world war. It neutered the League of Nations while delaying rearmament for the eventual showdown with the Axis. Lesson: Isolationism = Bad.

    But were the isolationists really isolationist? America was no Hermit Kingdom like North Korea. It was no Japan under the Tokugawa shoguns, a country that secluded itself from the world for over two centuries until being pried open by Commodore Perry's black ships at gunpoint. Now that's isolation.

    Isolationist politicians like Senator Arthur Vandenberg and Senator William Borah were comfortable with carrying on foreign commerce, and with maintaining diplomatic relations with foreign countries. At most they were selectively isolationist, imploring the United States to shun military alliances and other entanglements. McDougall maintains that "unilateralism" — retaining Washington's liberty of action rather than committing in advance to the use of force — is a more fitting term for the Vandenbergs and Borahs of the foreign-policy world.

    So let's infuse some Orwellian perspective into the debate over Syria. If an opponent of intervention wants not just to forego punishing the Assad regime but to cancel all overseas ventures involving force, then fine. He may qualify as an isolationist to the limited extent that the interwar isolationists did. If not, it's time to find another term — even though it may not be as much fun as tarring those with whom you disagree.

    So It Goes
    Sep 6, 2013 - 7:00pm

    This is obviously very bad news

    This is obviously very bad news.

    There is no way to game this as a positive. If true it is lose/lose time.

    But a comment made me spit out a drink through my nose - it so hits the mark. I laughed so hard that I thought I would share: Gotta keep laughing - I'm going for a walk.

    McMolotov   Image cannot be displayed

    I graduated college 11 short years ago. The possibilities sucked ass, and it's been all downhill from there.

    I have this stupid grin on my face and I can't get rid of it. I don't know if it's because I think they've fucked up this time, or if I know we're completely screwed and this is all so retarded it's funny.

    I'm also leaning heavily in favor of the idea that I've finally gone insane.

    Sep 6, 2013 - 7:00pm

    California Gold Rush - 1848

    Geological Survey Reveals Numerous Gold Sources in Yemen


    On January 24, 1848, while examining the tailrace draining water from his sawmill by the American River, James Marshall spotted some gleaming yellow lumps in the bottom of the channel. This documentary tells the story of what happened next.

      Image cannot be displayedThe Californian Gold Rush drew prospectors from all corners of the globe, eager for the easy and rich pickings available. Within the space of five years, San Francisco grew from a sleepy village of just 800 people to a cosmopolitan city boasting 12 daily newspapers and 27 foreign consulates. Entire communities sprang up, with the service industries supplying tools, food, women and liquor often making more money than the prospectors themselves.

      Image cannot be displayedThe film follows the stories of a small group of diverse characters -- Chinese and Chilean, Northerner and Southerner, black and white -- from the early euphoria to the darker times of fierce competition for the few lucrative mines. The Gold Rush made many people very rich, but James Marshall was not one of them. His discovery robbed him of his land and his livelihood. He invested in one failed mine and ended up penniless in a cabin after a state pension dried up. In 1886, a year after his death, a monument was erected to him as the man who started it all. James was not the only loser in an event that transformed a city, a fledgling state and an entire nation.

    1 of 5 California Gold Rush 1848 mp4
    2 of 5 California Gold Rush 1848 mp4
    3 of 5 California Gold Rush 1848 mp4
    4 of 5 California Gold Rush 1848 mp4
    5 of 5 California Gold Rush 1848 mp4

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