Big Thinkers: Orlov's Book and Current Events - Part 1

352
Thu, Sep 5, 2013 - 12:47am
The Sky is Falling! Or is it?
Dmitry Orlov’s 2013 book “The Five Stages of Collapse – Survivors’ Toolkit” is required reading. I do not say that lightly. It is a must read; do not delay. It is here:
and there are reviews posted for those inclined. I am not doing a book review. I am trying to pin down a realistic time-line, and the markers of same, in order that we all can prepare accordingly. Nothing I have read to date is as well analyzed, or presented, so for that, I am in awe. But, naturally, I have my own thoughts as to the reality that all five stages of collapse actually occur. So, this is Part I. Part II will be next Wednesday, as it all should make more sense as the Syrian situation unfolds.
From the introduction of the book through the afterward, the book is mesmerizing both in its insightful analysis, and its use of examples. It is full of humor, too. While I quarrel with the constant references to global warming–I am not a believer in that theory at all–the book is simply astonishing for its clear, yet compelling, observations. Oh, did I mention that Mr. Orlov was born in Russia, having moved to the United States as a teenager? Or that Mr. Orlov is an engineer with skills in many fields including high energy physics research, e-commerce and Internet security? Or that Mr. Orlov traveled back and forth to Russia repeatedly to observe the Soviet collapse during the late 80s and mid 90s?
All of these facts cement his credentials for me, and makes this book such a compelling read. I find it extremely important that we examine Mr. Orlov’s prism through which he views the world, because he alone seems to have the unique insight to have synthesized a world view based on personal experience as well as his education and obvious intellect. One can quarrel with his conclusions, but they are based on solid facts and experiences completely foreign to me that is for sure. Hence, I absorbed the book in rapt fascination, and I now look at the world events with a nod to the possibilities that Orlov’s predictions are accurate.
Mr. Orlov was born in Russia during the Cold War era. It is fascinating to think that he then left Russia and moved to the United States, where he then got to play video games, listen to Western pop-culture music and watch Hollywood movies. Certainly he had a taste of hard living in Russia, compared to the easy life in the United States. This had to have played a huge influence upon young Orlov.
Then, as the communist experiment began its death spasms, Mr. Orlov’s family and friends and he himself were there to witness them all to include the collapse. Personally, I remember being in an airport in Alabama at the time watching CNN showing images of the Soviet Union collapse on the video monitor. It was unbelievable, shocking–I was a former soldier, inculcated to hate the evil empire, they were the enemy dammit!; yet, my plane still showed up and left on time and I got to my destination. No one seemed to mind, or notice, and life just went on.
So, it’s not like the collapse of the fiat system in general and perhaps the USA in particular will be any life altering universe changing occurrence, although it will probably feel like that to many who are directly, initially affected. No, what Mr. Orlov writes about is a steady progression of a decaying, deteriorating, behemoth of a system, which announces its deterioration in measurable, meaningful ways. It is no mystery, nor should it be.
Anything which by definition that is unsustainable will come to an end. There is no sane person presently arguing that the current fiat system is sustainable. So, the fiat system will end, and the question then becomes what will it look like when it does start to end? Can the eventual collapse be stopped mid stream, like a magic stick save? How will we know the collapse is upon us? If the collapse is gradual, then how long will it take? What should we expect, at any given point in time, then, along the collapse continuum?
Mr. Orlov provides all the tools to reach conclusions and answers for all of these questions in detail and with examples from history. He adroitly describes an orderly process marked by five discrete stages of collapse, not all of which necessarily must occur, but which stages will occur in progressive fashion should efforts not be made to stave off the final, ruinous, back to the Stone Age collapse.
Those five stages are, in order, (1) Financial Collapse; (2) Commercial Collapse; (3) Political Collapse; (4) Social Collapse, and finally, (5) Cultural Collapse.
Without taking too much time to restate history, we all pretty much know that the financial collapse is occurring as we speak, with the first hint and outward manifestation of financial collapse occurring in 2008 and continuing ever since. Here is what Orlov says about Stage 1, the Financial Collapse: “Faith in business as usual is lost. The future is no longer assumed to resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out and access to capital is lost.” [p.14].
At this point, I firmly believe that the financial collapse is ongoing just as described, and accelerating. Understand that the process of the ongoing deterioration of the system is a gradual marginal process, and that there is no definitive point in time when there is at one moment a blissful, peaceful feeling that everything is perfectly fine, and then at the next moment there is sudden chaos and anarchy with rioting in the streets and images of roving bands of thugs streaming across our televisions. Instead, the financial collapse will continue its progress marginally, inexorably, step-by-step until such time as there is a commercial collapse. This is a completely different viewpoint I had when I first came to tfmr. I initially felt that collapse was IMMINENT!! Grab the weapons, food, water and gold/silver, time to bug out!
Well, I was dead wrong. Stupidly so. But how could I have been so misguided? Was it gullibility? Madison Avenue marketing? Human nature normalcy bias?
Whatever. Only now, I see things in a different, more analytical light, thanks to Mr. Orlov’s writings. Make no mistake, though. It is crystal clear that the Financial Collapse is ongoing, right now, leading soon enough I believe, though gradually to Stage 2, Commercial Collapse.
Understand that Santa told everyone to get out of the financial system. Cyprus banks initiated the bail-in. The ground work has been laid out. It is all legal and all the details worked out. Plenty has been written about the pending stealing of funds on deposit at banks, retirement accounts, name it. Look at what is happening in Argentina. If those Argentinian bond holders are stiffed, then that supposedly valuable New York paper is not so valuable now, is it? All of this is coming to pass as predicted, and the signs are obvious to anyone who wants to look.
The fiat system is broken. Risk assessment is now based on predicting the words of the Fed bankster in charge, then front run on huge computers to shear the sheep of fractions of pennies. The worlds’ unregulated derivatives dwarf the world GDP. A small hiccup will destroy the entire scheme, overnight. We are there.
This leads us to Stage 2, the Commercial Collapse. Orlov says this: “Faith that the market shall provide is lost. Money is devalued and or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down in widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.” [p.14].
It sure does not look like this Stage yet to me, but it sure seems damn close, too. But, by looking closely, the Syrian situation is telegraphing the proximity of when this Stage will occur. Many, many commentators have weighed in about Syria, and how the whole military situation, the bombing, the invasion, the troops really point in one direction;
The US President, a laughing stock, says at one moment that Syria crossed a red line, but now tries to wiggle out from under his own words, like a hack criminal defense attorney arguing for leniency for his recidivist client. The Syrian distraction is just that, a ruse. The real reason, they say, is resources, namely, gas pipelines to feed the industrialized world in general, and to perpetuate the governing structures of some middle east countries. So does this not seem to point towards the imminent arrival of Stage 2? Soon enough we will know.
Believe what you want to believe, but the next Stage, Commercial Collapse, knowing it is upon us, preparing do deal with it and live through it, is damn important to survival of us regular folks that is for sure. It is also after this Stage that I believe that a concerted effort to become politically active and strive for limited government will have the biggest effects.
So, for now, I leave you with this Part I and invite comments, criticisms, and the like. Try to focus on Orlov’s definitions of the first two Stages.
Next week I will dig into Stages 3-5, and evaluate details as well as strategies for rising up and making a difference for Stage 3. I would not be doing all this analysis if I did not believe that there is a possibility for real reform during Stage 3. So, I am not totally a doomsday believer I once was, but things sure look grim, so don’t let up on the preparation effort that is for sure.

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Hunt brother
Sep 6, 2013 - 9:27pm

Gold will march higher like 1977

Ram Jam "Black Betty" - YouTube

► 3:56► 3:56 www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMLnDuzgkjo Feb 2, 2006 - Uploaded by toddski

relish in the burn-out bearded idiocy of Ram Jam! as seen on VictimofTime.com and don't ...

This band plays outdoors! Definitely 1977, remember Jimmy Carter...great for gold. Hunt.

¤
Sep 6, 2013 - 9:13pm

Fuel

Aboard the U.S.S. JFK

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Metallica - Wherever I May Roam Lyrics
maravich44¤
Sep 6, 2013 - 8:51pm

gonna spread..

some hat tips around to some fine people. be nice to one another. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOJ8M6LHQls https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOkjaQ1E6QQ

Mr. Fix
Sep 6, 2013 - 8:45pm

ancientmoney

Stories about nuclear warheads surreptitiously being moved around are popping up all over the place,

some of them are even making mainstream news, for example Lindsey Graham's statement.

I think this upcoming war is going to be significantly worse than a shot across the bow.

From what I've read, the big boys generally don't break out their nukes unless there is a reasonably good possibility that they intend to use them.

If they don't watch their step, they could actually cause more than an economic implosion.

ancientmoney
Sep 6, 2013 - 8:30pm
SteveWthe_circle
Sep 6, 2013 - 8:24pm

@the_circle: Potential false flag in South Carolina

I don't generally give much weight to Alex Jones but the dots do fit with Lindsay Graham warning of a potential false flag in S. Carolina.

https://charlotte.cbslocal.com/2013/09/03/graham-nukes-in-hands-of-terro...

I can't imagine things are so bad that they have to go this far.

¤
Sep 6, 2013 - 7:38pm

War and the effects on the markets

What will happen to shares if the West strikes Syria?

As the world waits to see whether America will attack Syria, we look at how stock markets have behaved during previous conflicts

7:30PM BST 06 Sep 2013

Stock markets provide historians with rich data and many studies have been made of how markets perform during times of crisis, especially war.

The increased likelihood of a Western strike on Syria has encouraged analysts to look again at previous conflicts to see what lessons can be drawn.

The pattern most often cited – and which seems to be borne out, at least in conflicts over the past three decades – is that markets are volatile and weak for a period heading towards the event. Then, around the moment conflict actually begins, shares rebound.

In general the rebound follows more of a straight line and is greater than the preceding decline.

The rapid rallies seem more linked to the firing of the first salvos in any conflict than to any emerging understanding of how or when the episodes would end. The pattern bears out the famous investment epithet attributed to Nathan Rothschild in 1815 (see report, right): "Buy on the sound of cannons."

Analysis by Deutsche Bank, and circulated to its institutional clients, studied 12 conflicts over the past 30 years. The first was the missile strike ordered by President Reagan on Libya in April 1986. This was a response to the bombing, 10 days earlier, of a Berlin nightclub in which American soldiers were killed.

The most recent of the 12 conflicts analysed by Deutsche was the March 2011 deployment of aircraft over Libya – Operation Ellamy – when a coalition of Western states including Britain intervened in the Libyan civil war.

Between these two conflicts Deutsche Bank looked at 10 other events involving US and Western forces, including the 1991 Gulf War, the 1996 Iraqi Kurdish conflict, the Afghanistan war in late 2001 and the 2003 Iraq war.

With each event, analysts sought to identify a precise date on which the US entered the conflict, and then study the market either side of this date by examining the commonly followed S&P 500 index of leading US companies. Three data points were collected for each event: the highest point in the three months preceding the strike date, the strike date itself and the market's position one month after the strike date.

In all 12 cases the market on the strike date was below the high point of the three previous months, although the fall varied. The smallest drop was 1pc (Bosnia, August 1995) and the largest 15pc (Afghanistan, 2001).

The data relating to the weeks after the strike was more dramatic. Although many of those conflicts would drag on for months or years, the S&P tended to rise sharply after intervention. In every single case the index rose during the month following the strike, by as much as 18pc (the 1991 Gulf War).....(more)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/10290802/W...

abguy4
Sep 6, 2013 - 7:24pm

Thank GOD for Egon

Egon Von Greyerz on King World today;

''There is no change in my forecasts for gold and silver. I see a very strong 12 months coming. My short-term targets are still the same -- $2,500 for gold and $70 for silver. Of course they will be much higher thereafter.”

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/9/6_Th...$2,500_%26_Silver_Will_Spike_To_$70.html

I luv Egon

Thank GOD for Egon

I obviously have everything riding on his scenario

If he's wrong - just shoot me

seriously

just shoot me...................please

KerbouchardNana
Sep 6, 2013 - 7:17pm

For the life of me...

...I cannot understand why people accept the income tax as necessary.

It's immoral and unethical to tax a man's labor. It's a form of servitude. Our Maker has created this world as a kind of school. It's difficult and challenging enough trying to survive within the limited framework of opposites that this world is built upon, without stealing a man's livelihood.

What right has anyone to the fruits of our labor?

Certain taxes and tariffs I have no problem with, but the income tax is an abomination.

Thanks for listening! :-)

¤
Sep 6, 2013 - 7:08pm

Moondance

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