Big Thinkers: Orlov's Book and Current Events - Part 1

352
Thu, Sep 5, 2013 - 12:47am
The Sky is Falling! Or is it?
Dmitry Orlov’s 2013 book “The Five Stages of Collapse – Survivors’ Toolkit” is required reading. I do not say that lightly. It is a must read; do not delay. It is here:
and there are reviews posted for those inclined. I am not doing a book review. I am trying to pin down a realistic time-line, and the markers of same, in order that we all can prepare accordingly. Nothing I have read to date is as well analyzed, or presented, so for that, I am in awe. But, naturally, I have my own thoughts as to the reality that all five stages of collapse actually occur. So, this is Part I. Part II will be next Wednesday, as it all should make more sense as the Syrian situation unfolds.
From the introduction of the book through the afterward, the book is mesmerizing both in its insightful analysis, and its use of examples. It is full of humor, too. While I quarrel with the constant references to global warming–I am not a believer in that theory at all–the book is simply astonishing for its clear, yet compelling, observations. Oh, did I mention that Mr. Orlov was born in Russia, having moved to the United States as a teenager? Or that Mr. Orlov is an engineer with skills in many fields including high energy physics research, e-commerce and Internet security? Or that Mr. Orlov traveled back and forth to Russia repeatedly to observe the Soviet collapse during the late 80s and mid 90s?
All of these facts cement his credentials for me, and makes this book such a compelling read. I find it extremely important that we examine Mr. Orlov’s prism through which he views the world, because he alone seems to have the unique insight to have synthesized a world view based on personal experience as well as his education and obvious intellect. One can quarrel with his conclusions, but they are based on solid facts and experiences completely foreign to me that is for sure. Hence, I absorbed the book in rapt fascination, and I now look at the world events with a nod to the possibilities that Orlov’s predictions are accurate.
Mr. Orlov was born in Russia during the Cold War era. It is fascinating to think that he then left Russia and moved to the United States, where he then got to play video games, listen to Western pop-culture music and watch Hollywood movies. Certainly he had a taste of hard living in Russia, compared to the easy life in the United States. This had to have played a huge influence upon young Orlov.
Then, as the communist experiment began its death spasms, Mr. Orlov’s family and friends and he himself were there to witness them all to include the collapse. Personally, I remember being in an airport in Alabama at the time watching CNN showing images of the Soviet Union collapse on the video monitor. It was unbelievable, shocking–I was a former soldier, inculcated to hate the evil empire, they were the enemy dammit!; yet, my plane still showed up and left on time and I got to my destination. No one seemed to mind, or notice, and life just went on.
So, it’s not like the collapse of the fiat system in general and perhaps the USA in particular will be any life altering universe changing occurrence, although it will probably feel like that to many who are directly, initially affected. No, what Mr. Orlov writes about is a steady progression of a decaying, deteriorating, behemoth of a system, which announces its deterioration in measurable, meaningful ways. It is no mystery, nor should it be.
Anything which by definition that is unsustainable will come to an end. There is no sane person presently arguing that the current fiat system is sustainable. So, the fiat system will end, and the question then becomes what will it look like when it does start to end? Can the eventual collapse be stopped mid stream, like a magic stick save? How will we know the collapse is upon us? If the collapse is gradual, then how long will it take? What should we expect, at any given point in time, then, along the collapse continuum?
Mr. Orlov provides all the tools to reach conclusions and answers for all of these questions in detail and with examples from history. He adroitly describes an orderly process marked by five discrete stages of collapse, not all of which necessarily must occur, but which stages will occur in progressive fashion should efforts not be made to stave off the final, ruinous, back to the Stone Age collapse.
Those five stages are, in order, (1) Financial Collapse; (2) Commercial Collapse; (3) Political Collapse; (4) Social Collapse, and finally, (5) Cultural Collapse.
Without taking too much time to restate history, we all pretty much know that the financial collapse is occurring as we speak, with the first hint and outward manifestation of financial collapse occurring in 2008 and continuing ever since. Here is what Orlov says about Stage 1, the Financial Collapse: “Faith in business as usual is lost. The future is no longer assumed to resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out and access to capital is lost.” [p.14].
At this point, I firmly believe that the financial collapse is ongoing just as described, and accelerating. Understand that the process of the ongoing deterioration of the system is a gradual marginal process, and that there is no definitive point in time when there is at one moment a blissful, peaceful feeling that everything is perfectly fine, and then at the next moment there is sudden chaos and anarchy with rioting in the streets and images of roving bands of thugs streaming across our televisions. Instead, the financial collapse will continue its progress marginally, inexorably, step-by-step until such time as there is a commercial collapse. This is a completely different viewpoint I had when I first came to tfmr. I initially felt that collapse was IMMINENT!! Grab the weapons, food, water and gold/silver, time to bug out!
Well, I was dead wrong. Stupidly so. But how could I have been so misguided? Was it gullibility? Madison Avenue marketing? Human nature normalcy bias?
Whatever. Only now, I see things in a different, more analytical light, thanks to Mr. Orlov’s writings. Make no mistake, though. It is crystal clear that the Financial Collapse is ongoing, right now, leading soon enough I believe, though gradually to Stage 2, Commercial Collapse.
Understand that Santa told everyone to get out of the financial system. Cyprus banks initiated the bail-in. The ground work has been laid out. It is all legal and all the details worked out. Plenty has been written about the pending stealing of funds on deposit at banks, retirement accounts, name it. Look at what is happening in Argentina. If those Argentinian bond holders are stiffed, then that supposedly valuable New York paper is not so valuable now, is it? All of this is coming to pass as predicted, and the signs are obvious to anyone who wants to look.
The fiat system is broken. Risk assessment is now based on predicting the words of the Fed bankster in charge, then front run on huge computers to shear the sheep of fractions of pennies. The worlds’ unregulated derivatives dwarf the world GDP. A small hiccup will destroy the entire scheme, overnight. We are there.
This leads us to Stage 2, the Commercial Collapse. Orlov says this: “Faith that the market shall provide is lost. Money is devalued and or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down in widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.” [p.14].
It sure does not look like this Stage yet to me, but it sure seems damn close, too. But, by looking closely, the Syrian situation is telegraphing the proximity of when this Stage will occur. Many, many commentators have weighed in about Syria, and how the whole military situation, the bombing, the invasion, the troops really point in one direction;
The US President, a laughing stock, says at one moment that Syria crossed a red line, but now tries to wiggle out from under his own words, like a hack criminal defense attorney arguing for leniency for his recidivist client. The Syrian distraction is just that, a ruse. The real reason, they say, is resources, namely, gas pipelines to feed the industrialized world in general, and to perpetuate the governing structures of some middle east countries. So does this not seem to point towards the imminent arrival of Stage 2? Soon enough we will know.
Believe what you want to believe, but the next Stage, Commercial Collapse, knowing it is upon us, preparing do deal with it and live through it, is damn important to survival of us regular folks that is for sure. It is also after this Stage that I believe that a concerted effort to become politically active and strive for limited government will have the biggest effects.
So, for now, I leave you with this Part I and invite comments, criticisms, and the like. Try to focus on Orlov’s definitions of the first two Stages.
Next week I will dig into Stages 3-5, and evaluate details as well as strategies for rising up and making a difference for Stage 3. I would not be doing all this analysis if I did not believe that there is a possibility for real reform during Stage 3. So, I am not totally a doomsday believer I once was, but things sure look grim, so don’t let up on the preparation effort that is for sure.

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zenguppy
Sep 7, 2013 - 2:09am

Mr. Fix

Good conversation, thank you...what you said pretty much nails it.

"The parents have eaten sour grapes, and the children's teeth are now set on edge!"

Ezekiel 18:2

Nigel Black
Sep 7, 2013 - 1:46am

Obama Calls Putin a Jackass

G20 Ends Abruptly as Obama Calls Putin a Jackass Posted by Andy Borowitz

ST. PETERSBURG (The Borowitz Report)—Hopes for a positive G20 summit crumbled today as President Obama blurted to Russia’s Vladimir Putin at a joint press appearance, “Everyone here thinks you’re a jackass.”

The press corps appeared stunned by the uncharacteristic outburst from Mr. Obama, who then unleashed a ten-minute tirade at the stone-faced Russian President.

“Look, I’m not just talking about Snowden and Syria,” Mr. Obama said. “What about Pussy Riot? What about your anti-gay laws? Total jackass moves, my friend.”

As Mr. Putin narrowed his eyes in frosty silence, Mr. Obama seemed to warm to his topic.

“If you think I’m the only one who feels this way, you’re kidding yourself,” Mr. Obama said, jabbing his finger in the direction of the Russian President’s face. “Ask Angela Merkel. Ask David Cameron. Ask the Turkish guy. Every last one of them thinks you’re a dick.”

Shortly after Mr. Obama’s volcanic performance, Mr. Putin released a terse official statement, reading, “I should be afraid of this skinny man? I wrestle bears.”

After one day of meetings, the G20 nations voted unanimously on a resolution that said maybe everyone should just go home.

original article:

https://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2013/09/g20-ends-abruptly-as-obama-calls-putin-a-jackass.html

Don't know if this is true, but it is funny...

Mr. Fix
Sep 7, 2013 - 1:33am

zenguppy

Thank you very much for sharing your insights with us tonight. I for one appreciate it.

I will grant you that he gets off on fooling people, but I think he has an agenda, and fooling a lot of people is a part of it. More like a man on a mission. Like I always say, he is determined to destroy the United States, and what the heck, why not take out all of Western civilization while he's at it? This would explain the war that seems to be brewing behind the scenes between the Pentagon and the White House, it's kind of like the one world order folks versus radical Islam. Although both sides have been working towards the destruction of the United States for a long time, the European elites that run the banking cabal might have bitten off more than they can chew when they put Obama in the White House, he seems to have deceived them as well. This might even get messier than anything they had intended. I don't even think Obama thinks he's fooling anyone anymore, I don't think he cares anymore. Some people say he's acting scared, I feel like he's acting untouchable, but that just might be a matter of perception. Either way, it's unfortunate that the only one who can stop him has to use a nuclear arsenal to do it.

zenguppy
Sep 7, 2013 - 1:06am

Mr. Fix

I think you're on to something here...being tossed into the cauldron of fire, and living closely for a time, next to those who think about you simply as "prey," to be used, or to be completely devoured (depending upon your state of alertness)...definitely gives one an "Eye Witness Report, channel 5 " perspective!

But O is a sociopath/pathological liar, not a psychopath, I think. Sociopaths get off on fooling people, of taking advantage of them in some way, and proving to themselves how much they are superior, and more than that, that they are demigods, if not outright gods!

The scary part with O the sociopath is that these folks don't like to be "found out"... seen for the pretenders that they are. Their well crafted "identity" is what they prize the very most.

...and if they become shamed or publicly humiliated

...then Katy bar the doors!

All hell could break loose.

atarangi
Sep 7, 2013 - 1:03am

Danger - -

This situation feels very dangerous because it is getting much closer to Russia and China's red line. Nobody is dumb enough to build up a massive defense system and then sit and wait for a bully to give them a hiding. Putin has got a plan up his sleeve if things get personal. He is going to look like a weak little sooky babe if he let's Obama give him a bloody nose. Men who are small in stature (Putin) and have big weapons, will always use them when threatened. If one nuke gets used a hundred will follow and It will all be over in a matter of hours. In a nookular war he who hesitates is the loser.

Mr. Fix
Sep 7, 2013 - 1:00am

In case you are interested in Illuminati mind control,

tonight's show 1am - 5am ET
10pm - 2am PT The Illuminati & Hip Hop Fri 09-06

Filling in for George, John B. Wells will welcome rapper, spoken word artist, and member of Public Enemy, Professor Griff, who will expose the Illuminati's take over of hip hop and how they use music and popular culture as mind control over society.

More » I have read much on this subject before, it's all about the degradation of cultural and societal structure, amazingly, Number four and five on the stages of collapse. I contend that the Illuminati has been working this angle on many levels for decades now, and they are going to discuss it tonight, starting in just a few minutes, live coast-to-coast. Sounds like a good bedtime story to me.
Mr. Fixtreefrog
Sep 7, 2013 - 12:50am

treefrog

Agreed, if past actions are any indication of future actions, this will not end well.

SteveWzenguppy
Sep 7, 2013 - 12:49am

zenguppy

I'll agree to disagree on the semantics/definition.

I like to take the amoral/without conscience or remorse/lack of empathy as a common underlying biologically conditioned behaviour and consider that those psychopaths who are able to function relatively normally (that you call sociopaths) do so because of their intellect.

treefrogMr. Fix
Sep 7, 2013 - 12:42am

mr fix, how dangerous do i think it is?

like i said before,it's like a well tossed salad, kinda hard to guess what piece is coming to the surface next.

what troubles me most is obozo's seeming inability/unwillingness to compromise or back down. as things look now, i don't think it will end well.

Mr. Fix
Sep 7, 2013 - 12:40am

It gets even better,

Does anybody remember the anachronism MAD ( Mutually Assured Destruction)?

It was the basic premise of the Cold War that if both sides had enough weaponry to annihilate the other side many times over, then nobody would be insane enough to take the first shot, and thereby everyone would be safe.

Now let's take the theory that our fearless commander-in-chief is actually a Muslim extremist performing his holy jihad, with the intention of wiping out the infidels with a nuclear arsenal.

Would it not be a viable plan to assume office of the President of the United States, and then launch a nuclear strike on Russia?

Mutually assured destruction would be no defense at all, these guys think they have a reward in heaven, and that they are doing God's will. The ultimate suicide bomber.

And the mind blowing part of it, is because he is a psychopathic pathological liar, normal people don't see it, because they can't even comprehend it.

It's the ultimate surprise attack.

I think Vladimir Putin is onto him.

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