Big Thinkers: Orlov's Book and Current Events - Part 1

352
Thu, Sep 5, 2013 - 12:47am
The Sky is Falling! Or is it?
Dmitry Orlov’s 2013 book “The Five Stages of Collapse – Survivors’ Toolkit” is required reading. I do not say that lightly. It is a must read; do not delay. It is here:
and there are reviews posted for those inclined. I am not doing a book review. I am trying to pin down a realistic time-line, and the markers of same, in order that we all can prepare accordingly. Nothing I have read to date is as well analyzed, or presented, so for that, I am in awe. But, naturally, I have my own thoughts as to the reality that all five stages of collapse actually occur. So, this is Part I. Part II will be next Wednesday, as it all should make more sense as the Syrian situation unfolds.
From the introduction of the book through the afterward, the book is mesmerizing both in its insightful analysis, and its use of examples. It is full of humor, too. While I quarrel with the constant references to global warming–I am not a believer in that theory at all–the book is simply astonishing for its clear, yet compelling, observations. Oh, did I mention that Mr. Orlov was born in Russia, having moved to the United States as a teenager? Or that Mr. Orlov is an engineer with skills in many fields including high energy physics research, e-commerce and Internet security? Or that Mr. Orlov traveled back and forth to Russia repeatedly to observe the Soviet collapse during the late 80s and mid 90s?
All of these facts cement his credentials for me, and makes this book such a compelling read. I find it extremely important that we examine Mr. Orlov’s prism through which he views the world, because he alone seems to have the unique insight to have synthesized a world view based on personal experience as well as his education and obvious intellect. One can quarrel with his conclusions, but they are based on solid facts and experiences completely foreign to me that is for sure. Hence, I absorbed the book in rapt fascination, and I now look at the world events with a nod to the possibilities that Orlov’s predictions are accurate.
Mr. Orlov was born in Russia during the Cold War era. It is fascinating to think that he then left Russia and moved to the United States, where he then got to play video games, listen to Western pop-culture music and watch Hollywood movies. Certainly he had a taste of hard living in Russia, compared to the easy life in the United States. This had to have played a huge influence upon young Orlov.
Then, as the communist experiment began its death spasms, Mr. Orlov’s family and friends and he himself were there to witness them all to include the collapse. Personally, I remember being in an airport in Alabama at the time watching CNN showing images of the Soviet Union collapse on the video monitor. It was unbelievable, shocking–I was a former soldier, inculcated to hate the evil empire, they were the enemy dammit!; yet, my plane still showed up and left on time and I got to my destination. No one seemed to mind, or notice, and life just went on.
So, it’s not like the collapse of the fiat system in general and perhaps the USA in particular will be any life altering universe changing occurrence, although it will probably feel like that to many who are directly, initially affected. No, what Mr. Orlov writes about is a steady progression of a decaying, deteriorating, behemoth of a system, which announces its deterioration in measurable, meaningful ways. It is no mystery, nor should it be.
Anything which by definition that is unsustainable will come to an end. There is no sane person presently arguing that the current fiat system is sustainable. So, the fiat system will end, and the question then becomes what will it look like when it does start to end? Can the eventual collapse be stopped mid stream, like a magic stick save? How will we know the collapse is upon us? If the collapse is gradual, then how long will it take? What should we expect, at any given point in time, then, along the collapse continuum?
Mr. Orlov provides all the tools to reach conclusions and answers for all of these questions in detail and with examples from history. He adroitly describes an orderly process marked by five discrete stages of collapse, not all of which necessarily must occur, but which stages will occur in progressive fashion should efforts not be made to stave off the final, ruinous, back to the Stone Age collapse.
Those five stages are, in order, (1) Financial Collapse; (2) Commercial Collapse; (3) Political Collapse; (4) Social Collapse, and finally, (5) Cultural Collapse.
Without taking too much time to restate history, we all pretty much know that the financial collapse is occurring as we speak, with the first hint and outward manifestation of financial collapse occurring in 2008 and continuing ever since. Here is what Orlov says about Stage 1, the Financial Collapse: “Faith in business as usual is lost. The future is no longer assumed to resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out and access to capital is lost.” [p.14].
At this point, I firmly believe that the financial collapse is ongoing just as described, and accelerating. Understand that the process of the ongoing deterioration of the system is a gradual marginal process, and that there is no definitive point in time when there is at one moment a blissful, peaceful feeling that everything is perfectly fine, and then at the next moment there is sudden chaos and anarchy with rioting in the streets and images of roving bands of thugs streaming across our televisions. Instead, the financial collapse will continue its progress marginally, inexorably, step-by-step until such time as there is a commercial collapse. This is a completely different viewpoint I had when I first came to tfmr. I initially felt that collapse was IMMINENT!! Grab the weapons, food, water and gold/silver, time to bug out!
Well, I was dead wrong. Stupidly so. But how could I have been so misguided? Was it gullibility? Madison Avenue marketing? Human nature normalcy bias?
Whatever. Only now, I see things in a different, more analytical light, thanks to Mr. Orlov’s writings. Make no mistake, though. It is crystal clear that the Financial Collapse is ongoing, right now, leading soon enough I believe, though gradually to Stage 2, Commercial Collapse.
Understand that Santa told everyone to get out of the financial system. Cyprus banks initiated the bail-in. The ground work has been laid out. It is all legal and all the details worked out. Plenty has been written about the pending stealing of funds on deposit at banks, retirement accounts, name it. Look at what is happening in Argentina. If those Argentinian bond holders are stiffed, then that supposedly valuable New York paper is not so valuable now, is it? All of this is coming to pass as predicted, and the signs are obvious to anyone who wants to look.
The fiat system is broken. Risk assessment is now based on predicting the words of the Fed bankster in charge, then front run on huge computers to shear the sheep of fractions of pennies. The worlds’ unregulated derivatives dwarf the world GDP. A small hiccup will destroy the entire scheme, overnight. We are there.
This leads us to Stage 2, the Commercial Collapse. Orlov says this: “Faith that the market shall provide is lost. Money is devalued and or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down in widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.” [p.14].
It sure does not look like this Stage yet to me, but it sure seems damn close, too. But, by looking closely, the Syrian situation is telegraphing the proximity of when this Stage will occur. Many, many commentators have weighed in about Syria, and how the whole military situation, the bombing, the invasion, the troops really point in one direction;
The US President, a laughing stock, says at one moment that Syria crossed a red line, but now tries to wiggle out from under his own words, like a hack criminal defense attorney arguing for leniency for his recidivist client. The Syrian distraction is just that, a ruse. The real reason, they say, is resources, namely, gas pipelines to feed the industrialized world in general, and to perpetuate the governing structures of some middle east countries. So does this not seem to point towards the imminent arrival of Stage 2? Soon enough we will know.
Believe what you want to believe, but the next Stage, Commercial Collapse, knowing it is upon us, preparing do deal with it and live through it, is damn important to survival of us regular folks that is for sure. It is also after this Stage that I believe that a concerted effort to become politically active and strive for limited government will have the biggest effects.
So, for now, I leave you with this Part I and invite comments, criticisms, and the like. Try to focus on Orlov’s definitions of the first two Stages.
Next week I will dig into Stages 3-5, and evaluate details as well as strategies for rising up and making a difference for Stage 3. I would not be doing all this analysis if I did not believe that there is a possibility for real reform during Stage 3. So, I am not totally a doomsday believer I once was, but things sure look grim, so don’t let up on the preparation effort that is for sure.
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About the Author

  352 Comments

SilverFocker
Sep 5, 2013 - 9:39pm

Done with the Market

Yesterday My wife finally got out of the market........she quit her job of 15 years at the local hospital as a heart nurse. The place had been under investigation for some time for Fraud, but that is another story. She is now going to be a travel nurse, for a while.

We got an e-mail today confirming that her money is now out of the market and a check should be in her hands with 5-7 working days. I have had a long talk about what to do with this fiat, and the fact that she just flat-out sucks with money.....so I will pay off all her bills which will amount to around 7K, I will put 10K into Gold over time and keep 10K in cash at the bottom of the lake....I am looking at putting the rest into a few acres down the road from us. She is not to keen on this, yet she will at least have something to show for it.

Her new job pays close to 6k a month plus perdium, that will be a battle in itself as I will be putting half away into something else...did I mention she sucks with money.

As CL has opined another good thread....I will agree to the point that it will be a breakdown in a certain order, we are living it right now....Though I have not read the book mentioned yet. I would think that the author did not take into account of the 50% pulling and the other 50% riding......

IMO, I think this takes away any gradual decline below that line once the spigot is turned off. I have come to grips that people on a majority level just flat out suck, and those that do not is an ever shrinking populace, so if and when this thing implodes....it will not end well.

Libero
Sep 5, 2013 - 9:41pm

Us versus Them : Them Versus Us

So this is what Turd Ferguson's Metals Report Blog has become, a lunatic conspiracy hangout for delusional freedom fighters. Turd, you used to say "take it to the forums", but now you say, "Want to avoid all this infighting, subscribe to my $10 monthly site."

Nice business model. I expect it to fail.

Libero
Sep 5, 2013 - 10:10pm

Thanks for your input.

Thanks for your input.

I Run Bartertown
Sep 5, 2013 - 10:16pm

liberal-o

I'm sure TF is diligent in seeking business advice from marxists. I'm sure he'll take your opinion under advisement.

Guns n' Roses - Welcome to the jungle (subtitulado)

Subtitled in Mexican, in honor of Monedas.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This message brought to you by the Marketing Department for TFMR's Vault - "Pay up or Shut Up liberal-o"


Sep 5, 2013 - 10:24pm

Libero. somebody once said

Libero. somebody once said that a lunatic was a man who was surrounded by them. Let me know where I can send your prescription for lithium. 

The poet Rumi considered madmen the only individuals with a grasp of reality. 

I have yet to see you write a lucid, well thought out counter argument to anything you disagree with. This time you haven't even taken the time to let us know what it is that you disagree with. All I see coming from you are histrionic rants. Histrionic is a severe personality disorder. See, anybody can slander and cast aspersions using psychological buzz words. However, if you give me 30 minutes of your time, I could certify that diagnosis that would hold up in a court of law. Betchya. The difference between you doing it and me doing it is that I have the educational and work background to make it stick.

Libero
Sep 5, 2013 - 10:30pm

Green Lantern- you cannot debate with

delusionals. They will create a world that justifies their delusions... so I cannot argue with you anymore. You win.

DayStar
Sep 5, 2013 - 10:30pm

Harvey: It is interesting why

  • Harvey: It is interesting why the crooks decided to raid two days in a row. Something must be brewing behind the scenes as evidenced by the big rise in the 10 year USA interest rate, the huge rise in the Portuguese 10 year bond yield as well as the Spanish and Italian bonds.
  • GoldCore: The gold silver ratio is likely to trend lower and revert to its long term average and its geological ratio of 15 to 1 as a huge amount of silver has been used in industrial applications in recent years. Silver price appreciating to above it’s real inflation adjusted record high of $140/oz in 1980 seems likely due to increased industrial, investment and, potentially most importantly, store of value demand for what remains a very rare precious metal in a time of universal currency debasement.
  • Swansy Afonso and Pratik Parija: “There is a huge amount of scrap supply coming into the market. There is a liquidity crisis and people are selling and putting the money in the bank. “All the people who thought they were stuck with the gold when the prices fell are looking to exit and a lot of investor selling is happening,” Babu said. “There are no buyers in the market. Only sellers.” DS: This very much sounds like MOPE to me. Sentiment does not turn that quickly, and I don't believe these guys are telling the truth.
  • Jan Skoyles: The fact that 75 tonnes of gold left Poland at the beginning of WWII is in part thanks to an English Captain who helped Poland’s gold reserves escaped the clutches of the Nazis by taking it to Istanbul. It seems that the Poles are getting closer to achieving financial safety by finally withdrawing from British vaults what belonged to the Poles for almost a century.
  • Chris Powell: It was easily the most substantive speech by a Reserve Bank of India governor on his first day in office. Just two hours after the formal signing-in ceremony and a warm hug from his predecessor, Raghuram Rajan got down to business in a manner that surprised all.
  • Reuters: Gold buyers lined up to restart imports on Wednesday as the customs department clarified new rules, putting the world's biggest bullion buyer back in the market after a six-week gap and threatening government efforts to underpin the rupee.
  • Bloomberg: Gold shipments to China from Hong Kong increased in July as importers took advantage of local prices that were an average 2.1 percent higher than global markets and as mainland investors bought jewelry and coins.
  • Tyler Durden: Until now China had kept a relatively low profile on the Syria issue, occasionally issuing veiled support for the Assad regime. From the FT: "China warned on Thursday that military intervention in Syria would hurt the world economy and push up oil prices, reinforcing Vladimir Putin’s attempts to talk US President Barack Obama out of air strikes.“
  • Zero Hedge: War-weary 'real' Americans appear to have the ear of their representatives (for once). Message such as "you don't stop a war by getting involved and shooting more," and "once you start launching missiles, anything can happen," appear to have moved both the staunchest tea-party Republican and the most anti-war Democrats to shun the position of Boehner and Pelosi.
  • Greg Hunter (USAWatchdog.com): Former Assistant Treasury Secretary Dr. Paul Craig Roberts says,“Let’s cut to the chase. It’s got nothing to do with Syria. The reason they are looking for a fabricated excuse to attack Assad is to continue the radicalization of Muslims in the hopes this spreads into the Muslim populations of Russia and China. Washington intends to weaken the two giants it cannot run over.” Dr. Roberts goes on to warn, “I think this will lead to World War III, and that, of course, will be nuclear.”
  • Bill Holter: It is quite convenient to the U.S. to have the price of Gold drop into and during the G-20 summit. "Gold down and Dollar firm" can and will be pointed at as "stability" and thus a reason not to supplant the Dollar. I would say "good luck" with this because the rest of the world knows how tight the Gold market is. They can see it and feel it first hand.

All this and more on...

The Harvey Report

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/605706#comment-605706

DayStar

ancientmoney the_circle
Sep 5, 2013 - 10:36pm

@the_circle re: Info wars vid . . .

Yup, insane fits the description. 

Not that Alex Jones is insane, but its nutso that Lindsay Graham announced to the world that unless we attack Syria, South Carolina would be nuked by terrorists--right after it was leaked that nukes were secreted out of Dyess AFB en route to South Carolina, of all places!

Now, Graham is a banker-owned warhawk from the word go, but my God! This would be a false flag to end the world. Is he simply "in the know" and warning people to clear out, or is the cabal who handles Graham serious, and using him as a last-ditch mouthpiece to get their way?

Someone please prove this whole thing is off-base. Don't just wish it-- we all do that.


Sep 5, 2013 - 10:40pm

Hey Libero, Look what I

Hey Libero, Look what I found. More loons. 

The Center for Research on Globization.

Did The White House Help Plan The Syrian Chemical Attack.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/did-the-white-house-help-plan-the-syrian-c...

And golleee, it seems Leon Panetta is a conspiracy theorist too! Panetta : Chemical Weapons May Have Fallen Into The Hands Of Rebels

And once again, the guy in the black hat, with a Ph.D. from Oxford, is also a loon. False flag. crazy ass

NEWS AND VIEWS FROM THE NEFARIUM SEPT 5, 2013
ancientmoney
Sep 5, 2013 - 10:41pm
Magpie
Sep 5, 2013 - 10:50pm

I thought this was a joke

Our northern neighbors' version of an Onion story.

I was wrong.

Manchester United fans would probably riot at the mere mention.

I wonder how the parents know when to cheer?

https://www.cbc.ca/thisisthat/blog/2013/09/03/to-ensure-every-child-wins...

According to Association spokesperson, Helen Dabney-Coyle, "By removing the ball, it's absolutely impossible to say 'this team won' and 'this team lost' or 'this child is better at soccer than that child.'"

"We want our children to grow up learning that sport is not about competition, rather it's about using your imagination. If you imagine you're good at soccer, then, you are."

laugh laugh laugh

Dudley Do-Right
Sep 5, 2013 - 11:15pm

No, Magpie,

We're not quite that screwy up here, north of the border - this was CBC Radio being satirical, apparently re the notion of not keeping score, implemented for some kids' soccer playing in Ontario, I gather. 

DD

Occasnltrvlr
Sep 5, 2013 - 11:31pm

Not Keeping Score

Besides, that'll save someone upwards of two, maybe three seconds' work per match. wink

Magpie
Sep 5, 2013 - 11:42pm

Hmmmmmm

 I should have stayed with my first instincts, but when I checked the "About Us" page I thought it was a legit story. Guess the libs have gone so far that any loony story now seems plausible. Good for them.

Magpie
Sep 5, 2013 - 11:55pm

Retribution plans in the works

https://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014241278873238930045790572710192102...

WASHINGTON—The U.S. has intercepted an order from Iran to militants in Iraq to attack the U.S. Embassy and other American interests in Baghdad in the event of a strike on Syria, officials said, amid an expanding array of reprisal threats across the region.

Dyna mo hum
Sep 6, 2013 - 12:06am
DeaconBenjamin ag1969
Sep 6, 2013 - 12:14am

Senatorial Plane Crashes

Fine, then let's talk about the plane crash of Republican senatorial candidate Dick Obenshain of Virginia in 1978, or that of Oliver North's plane (just after he disembarked) during a senatorial primary election in the mid 1990s. 

DeaconBenjamin
Sep 6, 2013 - 12:35am
ag1969
Sep 6, 2013 - 12:45am
glimas
Sep 6, 2013 - 1:19am

bonds 10 yr for those who want to know cont.

OK: read responses while I typed earlier post. You guys aren't getting what's coming. My alarm is set for 2:30 a.m. so I can go bear and deer hunting this weekend so gonna be fast. Pay attention, the doing away with Glass Steagall starts to play into this one as well. Realistically its not how much the 10yr goes up...its how much and how FAST. Interest rate swaps are not for 50,000 years, they have a term. Whether in 6 months, 1 yr. 2 yr. etc. They go to the trash heap if conditions are not met in there time frame.

First go re read my first paragraph. The losses I described just took place in 2.5 months. These 10 yr pigs you hold for 10 years! What if interest and inflation continue or get worse which they currently are. Over the years what are your losses..? Say in 4 years? 6 years? Your losses multiply. What happens if rates rise to 5, 7, 9 percent. Talk about a blood bath.

Second say you are a primary dealer you have reserves with Ben. The 10 yr. is a tier one asset (100%), not like your shiny metal which is only a tier 3 asset (50 %) What does this mean? It means you can fractional reserve the deposited amount out 10x's minus the original deposit with Ben. You then use your prop desk to go make bets with this new found money. Into the market and buy equities, commodities, more 10 yrs bills, municipal bonds, junk bonds etc. Well as the 10 yr continues to rise it will affect all of these other paper assets. Hence a large bank who has played this game is looking at very very large losses. Hence somebody is gonna need a bail in. Buckle up its gonna get fugly. It gets worse, what if you move this funny money offshore to say London where they have less rules and regulation and you can even fractional reserve it out even more than the 10x's. These bastages need to hang! To think I have to bail in and save a Las Vegas Bank with my 401K, pension, savings, checking acct.......F@#^ that. Got PM's?

Agian I am just a low life middle class scum what do I know. From my reading, researching, trying to figure out what is and what is not..... this is what I have come to understand. I am infuriated that the average Joe has no idea what comes. Joe cares not what Wall Street and DC steal as long as he has a full tank of gas, Johnny is in football and Sally is in cheer. We are doomed rant off. Back to lurking....oh sleeping at this point.

Mr. Fix
Sep 6, 2013 - 1:19am

I for one, would like to discuss the topic.

And now, back on topic.

I hope everyone had a chance to at least read the introduction to the book, I did, but only had a chance to raise a couple of points this morning.

The author went into great detail to describe the reasons why this is such a hard topic for discussion, but one of the most pertinent and one's that I have not yet raised, was the five stages of grief that a human being will go through once they realize that a collapse is real, that it will happen, and that it is unavoidable. For example, when reading the story that Alex Jones has been covering for the past couple of days about the nuclear warhead being shipped to South Carolina, and then hearing Lindsey Graham explain that if we do not bomb Syria, there will be a nuclear detonation in Charleston, just confirms to me that these guys are serious, and that they will stop at nothing to make sure that this particular collapse is about as nasty as can be. What I feel when I see this story unfold is very unsettling, I suspect that there is still a small parts of me that hopes I'm wrong, and that I have just been reading a bunch of hype, and that all of my beliefs as to how this would unfold where just the product of an overactive imagination. It literally makes my skin flush, and sometimes I start to shake when things come to pass pretty much as predicted. I know I've made some outrageous assertions over the past couple of years, and on other sites before I was here, and being called names comes with the territory, it really doesn't phase me, but the news does, and it's not good.

In this morning's post, I just wanted to raise for discussion my assertion that out of the five steps of collapse, this particular time around at lease for the United States, the steps are out of order, so for the purpose of making this point, let's go through them one at a time, and I'll show you what I'm talking about.

Number five: cultural collapse.

There is no doubt that this has been going on for decades, as a matter of fact, what it means to be an American has been demolished, through the use of hyphenated terms such as African American, Latino American, Native American, Asian American, and the list is seemingly endless, it's gotten so bad, nobody knows what you mean when you simply state that someone is an American. After decades of open borders, sanctuary cities, and local, state, and federal authorities not just looking the other way but in fact encouraging illegal immigration, arguably bestowing more rights on people who arrived here illegally than those who have been lifelong multi-generational citizens. Then there's what we get to watch on television, I heard something about Miley Cyrus on some music awards show last week, that was pretty outrageous, but the television programming that I watched as a child has not been available for my daughter except in reruns. The stuff that is designed for children to watch today is morally bankrupt, and I don't even find it humorous. From an outsider looking in, Americans have become self obsessed, fat dumb and lazy, and it has become culturally acceptable to always take the easy way out, where people who do the hard work, are made to pay for their life of freebies. I know of at least one lady in Canada that would wholeheartedly agree that Americans in general think their shit don't stink, and are entitled to what they have, regardless of if they've ever worked for it.

Number four: societal collapse.

When half the children are raised by only one parent, because the state has provided every incentive to pump out as many babies as possible so you can get more money on your EBT card every month, you know you have a problem. When marriage is penalized, divorce rate is 50%, and of cohesive family unit is a rarity, the problems in society become apparent. When people don't talk to each other anymore, they just send a text message, when children are left at day care from nearly the time they are born, because both parents need to work to maintain their American dream, and pay their taxes, family life does not exist. When the old folks, only a few generations ago were looked up to as the wisest and most informed among us, are now herded off to retirement villages, segregated from the rest of the population, or worse yet, stuck in nursing homes, so they are no longer a burden to their families, you know something's very wrong. Just the people I know who like to restore old cars that I see at the local car show on weekends, are all retirees, and many of them are pushing 80, and then notice, that there is nobody coming along to replace them. Who is going to fix these gorgeous cars when they finally die? Their own children are not even interested in them. At least when I was in high school, some of my classmates and I actually liked to build things.

Nobody even wants to know how they work anymore. As a populous, we've been herded into big cities, to live in tall buildings, where neighbors do not even talk to each other, we can walk through our entire day, see hundreds of faces, and not be able to connect a single name to any of them. This is a societal collapse, masses without friends, without family, without even people to talk to, lonely, and isolated, in a collapse, they will have no one to turn to. I would say that societal collapse has already been accomplished.

Number three, the political collapse.

If this is defined by a populace that has no faith or trust in its leaders, we have undeniably reached that point, when only 9% of the population wants a war that the politicians are hell bent on starting. Gone are the days where calling a politician to express your concerns can be expected to have any results at all.

As some of you will remember, prior to the 2012 election, not only did I say that Obama would win, but that the election was rigged. With a complicit press, the poll numbers were rigged prior to the election to make an unelectable incumbent look like he actually had a chance. So it should come as no surprise that when all the polls closed, and the results were sent to George Soros's firm in Spain to tally up the results, of course the results were predetermined.

Our politicians today act in every possible way like people who are unaccountable to anyone. You may think some of my assertions are nutty, but you will have to agree with one thing, our political system is broken, the people are no longer represented.

Number two: the commercial collapse

again, this has been going on for decades, ever since the days of NAFTA, all of our jobs, all of our industry, has been shipped to countries with a lower cost of labor, lower taxes, less regulation, and more freedom to operate. The incestuous relation between the unions and government has put many companies out of business, but most have been sent abroad, and they will not be coming back. Most of what we buy now is made in another country, the supply chains stretch all the way around the world. We have been exporting our dollars which has created nothing but global inflation, since it is our biggest export, printed pieces of paper in exchange for real goods. How long can that keep going on? But it is a foregone conclusion, that if those little pieces of paper with all of that pretty green ink were to suddenly he recognized for its true value, then all of those products being shipped to our stores will instantly cease, and as a country, we no longer have the factories, or a workforce educated enough to run them, or even the resources to keep them open.

When the dollar collapses, it won't be a simple matter of exchanging it for a another form of currency, everything will grind to a halt, until we either build our own factories, or have something of real value to exchange for the goods that we import. This is coming very soon.

Okay, I've just done four of the stages of collapse, and most commonly accredited to what would happen in the event of a real economic collapse.

This country has survived economic collapse before, the Great Depression came and went, but the American people hung together, and rebuild a prosperous country. Even though the economy collapsed, we still had faith in our government, we still had faith in each other and our families, and we still had a culture that rewarded hard work and achievement. I would argue that systematically all the things that were in place that help us recover from the depression, these four items no longer exist in the United States.

There is a lot of revisionist history out there that credits World War II for rescuing our economy. That is only true to the extent that the rest of the world was bombed into the Stone Age, and we had the only remaining working factories, but the fact of the matter is we had spirit, we had each other, and a will and desire to be the best that we could be.

That is all gone now.

So that brings us to number one,

the financial collapse.

I saved the best for last, because if one was going to design the most hideously agonizing depression imaginable, a way to truly defeat a populous, and leave them with no resources whatsoever, it has already been done. Our currency that is backed by nothing except faith and confidence in our government,means it is truly backed by nothing. Although our government says it is "only" $17 trillion in debt, a real accounting of that debt brings it to well over 70 trillion. We are currently printing about half of what we spend as a nation, while every other nation in the world is working as quickly as possible to limit its exposure to the dollar, setting up bilateral trade agreements and are firmly aligning against us in that silly little war that our politicians seem to want so badly.

For all practical purposes, the dollar has become worthless, it's just nobody's noticed yet. How long can the dollar survive as the world's reserve currency, if the rest of the world is allied against us in war?

This morning, I discussed the bridge analogy, where the author stated that you could take an old decaying bridge, and know with absolute certainty that it was going to collapse into the river below, you can see the cracks, you can see the rust in the rebar through the cracks, and you know it's only a matter of time. He goes to great lengths to explain that no engineer can possibly determine exactly when that bridge will fall.

It is my contention that that bridge in our current situation although we know it will fall, it is also heavily laden with dynamite, and the fuse has already been lit. It's not just going to fall, it's going to explode. It's not just a matter of time, it's a relatively short amount of time. The only thing we don't know at this point is the length of the fuse.

California Lawyer: I thank you much for picking this topic, and taking the time to post it. Like you, I find it highly relevant to the situation we currently find ourselves in.

In a post I left this morning, I asked you why you changed your mind, and no longer felt that collapse was imminent. You did not expand on why you changed your belief, and I am looking forward to your next post.

In the Most Bizarre ofCoincidences, My Power Went out At the Beginning of My Second Attempt To Write This Postt ILet's Just Say It's Been an Eventful Four Hours A The For This I'm Running on Generator Backup,MA Dictate Is Not ResponTwo Commands to Change the Textt It Is Now One AM Eastern Standard Time, I Started Trying to Put This Together at Nine PMM.

Left Field Mr. Fix
Sep 6, 2013 - 1:28am

Mr fix

Just want to thank you for your efforts in putting together this thoughtful comment.

left field

Threefoottwo
Sep 6, 2013 - 1:31am

I am done reading this site

This was a very nice site back at the library. Tonight I conclude that it is no longer worth the time to read. Since the wealthy elite have been relegated to the vault, it stinks! There were a few great posts in the beginning of the new lower section, but the new leaders also have a full time job, and the quality of the material is eroding. Let me know if the site ever returns to normal. I may have to try to get the television back on line. Since the goberment revised the frequencies and bandwidth to give room for greater goberment bandwidth, reception totally stinks away from the city.

Thank you Turd for the work you did on the old site. We had a good thing going. If I was rich, I would pay to get into the vault, but I am a low tier member of the hated 47%.

38

Katie Rose
Sep 6, 2013 - 1:50am

Xty

One does not tell an 88 year old woman what to watch on TV.

One loves her and nurtures her, just as she loved and nurtured me as a small child.

And, if I feel it is appropriate, I will post spiritual posts as well.... wink

Mr. Fix
Sep 6, 2013 - 2:10am

Follow-up on preparations.

 Okay, it's taken me a few minutes, and then some to reboot my computer, and get my programming working, but it appears to be working perfect.

 Now here's a twist, when I started at 9 PM to write a simple synopsis on California Lawyer's book, I spent about an hour and half dictating it, after pondering it while working this afternoon. After I was convinced that it had come out nicely, had done all the editing, spell check, and formatting, on a separate program that works with Dictate, I went to copy it, and pressed the wrong button, and instantly, it was gone.

 After going to my mailbox again, my computer crashed, and I couldn't get the program to reboot. I worked on that for a while, and finally got it functioning, so at about 11 PM, I decided I would attempt to do it all over again, and I wasn't even done with the first paragraph, when all the lights went out.

 Realizing that my MacBook Pro at least had a charged battery, I just sat there and continued for another hour, until I was done. By then, my battery was nearly dead, and it was still pitch black in the house.

 So I decided to go out and fire up my generator, but I could not see a thing.

 Using the light from the electronic cigarette in my mouth, I scrounged around for an old lighter that I remembered seeing on my bedroom floor. Using that, I went room to room looking for candle.

 When I finally found a candle, and lit it, I realized my flashlight was out in my car.

 In the pitch black I made it to the car, and found that my flashlight had a dead battery.

 So in the pitch black I went to my trailer to get my generator out, but the contents of my old kitchen, and my old man cave were on top of the generator. In about 15 min., digging like a madman in the dark, I finally got down to the generator.

 Clearing a path to the door took another 10 min., and when I went to pull the cord off the cabinet door, a wall of cabinets toppled over, it looks like a bomb went off in there now.

 Fortunately, after running the wires, plugging them in, flicking the right switches, and pulling the rope, it started on the first pull. 

 Then I had to reset my cable box, reboot the modem, recharge the battery in my Mac book, and get the router working, and when I went to finish up that last post, my Dictate program went nuts, and wouldn't print what I was saying.

 Afraid that I would lose an entire evening's work, I just posted as it was, with all of the mistakes in place,

 I figured I'd edited after it posted.

 Plus, every time the electricity goes out here, the Internet usually follows soon after.

 It's almost 2 AM, time to turn off the generator, see if my radio is charged up yet, and find out if anyone knows why the lights went out.

 I've always prided myself in being prepared, I will have to tell you, tonight showed me that I have room for improvement.

 Good night.

atarangi
Sep 6, 2013 - 3:03am

spiritual posts - -

Katie Rose - your own spirit always comes across as something very strong and genuine. I am not a big fan of Biblical quotes. But coming from you I find them shrouded in heartfelt wisdom.

atarangi
Sep 6, 2013 - 4:12am

Mr. Fix - -

I don't know how you do it. I've tried everything to be as inspirational and prolific as you. Even tried a "'lasts 50% longer eveready battery". In my pants. It's the longest lasting battery you can buy. Dyna Mo Hum told me to try running around with wimmin's panties on my head. Didn't seem to do a thing. You don't suppose you could give me some advice. martin_with_panties_on_head.jpg

Boswell
Sep 6, 2013 - 5:16am

Re: "Preparations"

Mr Fix, I know the feeling. When I harvested my handful of peas and a couple shriveled carrots... I showed them to my "other" and said "Enjoy your share, Looks like we're gonna die when the SHTF!" ;-( But, the Yellow & Zuchinni squash will save us! ;-)

atarangi
Sep 6, 2013 - 5:24am

Allu akba - -

Hello is there anybody out there. I'm not sure why Americans go to sleep. If I was them I would be up guarding my property. Those terrorists can pop up any old time. I saw one just the other day. He was muttering something like " allu akba" I asked him what fuck are you talking about. Turns out that's muslim for " Double cheese and big mac "


Sep 6, 2013 - 5:31am

Katie, etc.

Didn't your mum tell you what to watch when you were a child? If your mum is getting terrified and crying as she watches TV and she is 88 you can and should so something. I refuse to believe that nurture is letting that occur.

IRB:

A lifetime of admiring and respecting women is challenged every time I read that angry, shrill nastiness.

You have respected and admired women all your life?

I am happy that you and Mr Fix are finding it necessary to discuss me via PM, and find it necessary to bring that to the main page. 

Much better than having any nastiness on here, and I know how much you hate nastiness.

So now I am in trouble both for being too positive and for being too nasty.

Geez louise,. And now Mr Fix thinks we should stay on topic. What a snarky bitch.

Yeah I'm in a bad mood, and yeah I find these threads angry and silly.

Enjoy discussing me behind my back, it must fill your days with joy. Or wait, you think joy is naive. Maybe it fills your days with angst, which you seem to enjoy.

edit to add: I am not shrill. Shrill means high pitched and piercing. IT IS HOPELESS! for example, is shrill, and that would be your pal Mr Fix, pas moi.

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