Big Thinkers: Orlov's Book and Current Events - Part 1

352
Thu, Sep 5, 2013 - 12:47am
The Sky is Falling! Or is it?
Dmitry Orlov’s 2013 book “The Five Stages of Collapse – Survivors’ Toolkit” is required reading. I do not say that lightly. It is a must read; do not delay. It is here:
and there are reviews posted for those inclined. I am not doing a book review. I am trying to pin down a realistic time-line, and the markers of same, in order that we all can prepare accordingly. Nothing I have read to date is as well analyzed, or presented, so for that, I am in awe. But, naturally, I have my own thoughts as to the reality that all five stages of collapse actually occur. So, this is Part I. Part II will be next Wednesday, as it all should make more sense as the Syrian situation unfolds.
From the introduction of the book through the afterward, the book is mesmerizing both in its insightful analysis, and its use of examples. It is full of humor, too. While I quarrel with the constant references to global warming–I am not a believer in that theory at all–the book is simply astonishing for its clear, yet compelling, observations. Oh, did I mention that Mr. Orlov was born in Russia, having moved to the United States as a teenager? Or that Mr. Orlov is an engineer with skills in many fields including high energy physics research, e-commerce and Internet security? Or that Mr. Orlov traveled back and forth to Russia repeatedly to observe the Soviet collapse during the late 80s and mid 90s?
All of these facts cement his credentials for me, and makes this book such a compelling read. I find it extremely important that we examine Mr. Orlov’s prism through which he views the world, because he alone seems to have the unique insight to have synthesized a world view based on personal experience as well as his education and obvious intellect. One can quarrel with his conclusions, but they are based on solid facts and experiences completely foreign to me that is for sure. Hence, I absorbed the book in rapt fascination, and I now look at the world events with a nod to the possibilities that Orlov’s predictions are accurate.
Mr. Orlov was born in Russia during the Cold War era. It is fascinating to think that he then left Russia and moved to the United States, where he then got to play video games, listen to Western pop-culture music and watch Hollywood movies. Certainly he had a taste of hard living in Russia, compared to the easy life in the United States. This had to have played a huge influence upon young Orlov.
Then, as the communist experiment began its death spasms, Mr. Orlov’s family and friends and he himself were there to witness them all to include the collapse. Personally, I remember being in an airport in Alabama at the time watching CNN showing images of the Soviet Union collapse on the video monitor. It was unbelievable, shocking–I was a former soldier, inculcated to hate the evil empire, they were the enemy dammit!; yet, my plane still showed up and left on time and I got to my destination. No one seemed to mind, or notice, and life just went on.
So, it’s not like the collapse of the fiat system in general and perhaps the USA in particular will be any life altering universe changing occurrence, although it will probably feel like that to many who are directly, initially affected. No, what Mr. Orlov writes about is a steady progression of a decaying, deteriorating, behemoth of a system, which announces its deterioration in measurable, meaningful ways. It is no mystery, nor should it be.
Anything which by definition that is unsustainable will come to an end. There is no sane person presently arguing that the current fiat system is sustainable. So, the fiat system will end, and the question then becomes what will it look like when it does start to end? Can the eventual collapse be stopped mid stream, like a magic stick save? How will we know the collapse is upon us? If the collapse is gradual, then how long will it take? What should we expect, at any given point in time, then, along the collapse continuum?
Mr. Orlov provides all the tools to reach conclusions and answers for all of these questions in detail and with examples from history. He adroitly describes an orderly process marked by five discrete stages of collapse, not all of which necessarily must occur, but which stages will occur in progressive fashion should efforts not be made to stave off the final, ruinous, back to the Stone Age collapse.
Those five stages are, in order, (1) Financial Collapse; (2) Commercial Collapse; (3) Political Collapse; (4) Social Collapse, and finally, (5) Cultural Collapse.
Without taking too much time to restate history, we all pretty much know that the financial collapse is occurring as we speak, with the first hint and outward manifestation of financial collapse occurring in 2008 and continuing ever since. Here is what Orlov says about Stage 1, the Financial Collapse: “Faith in business as usual is lost. The future is no longer assumed to resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out and access to capital is lost.” [p.14].
At this point, I firmly believe that the financial collapse is ongoing just as described, and accelerating. Understand that the process of the ongoing deterioration of the system is a gradual marginal process, and that there is no definitive point in time when there is at one moment a blissful, peaceful feeling that everything is perfectly fine, and then at the next moment there is sudden chaos and anarchy with rioting in the streets and images of roving bands of thugs streaming across our televisions. Instead, the financial collapse will continue its progress marginally, inexorably, step-by-step until such time as there is a commercial collapse. This is a completely different viewpoint I had when I first came to tfmr. I initially felt that collapse was IMMINENT!! Grab the weapons, food, water and gold/silver, time to bug out!
Well, I was dead wrong. Stupidly so. But how could I have been so misguided? Was it gullibility? Madison Avenue marketing? Human nature normalcy bias?
Whatever. Only now, I see things in a different, more analytical light, thanks to Mr. Orlov’s writings. Make no mistake, though. It is crystal clear that the Financial Collapse is ongoing, right now, leading soon enough I believe, though gradually to Stage 2, Commercial Collapse.
Understand that Santa told everyone to get out of the financial system. Cyprus banks initiated the bail-in. The ground work has been laid out. It is all legal and all the details worked out. Plenty has been written about the pending stealing of funds on deposit at banks, retirement accounts, name it. Look at what is happening in Argentina. If those Argentinian bond holders are stiffed, then that supposedly valuable New York paper is not so valuable now, is it? All of this is coming to pass as predicted, and the signs are obvious to anyone who wants to look.
The fiat system is broken. Risk assessment is now based on predicting the words of the Fed bankster in charge, then front run on huge computers to shear the sheep of fractions of pennies. The worlds’ unregulated derivatives dwarf the world GDP. A small hiccup will destroy the entire scheme, overnight. We are there.
This leads us to Stage 2, the Commercial Collapse. Orlov says this: “Faith that the market shall provide is lost. Money is devalued and or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down in widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.” [p.14].
It sure does not look like this Stage yet to me, but it sure seems damn close, too. But, by looking closely, the Syrian situation is telegraphing the proximity of when this Stage will occur. Many, many commentators have weighed in about Syria, and how the whole military situation, the bombing, the invasion, the troops really point in one direction;
The US President, a laughing stock, says at one moment that Syria crossed a red line, but now tries to wiggle out from under his own words, like a hack criminal defense attorney arguing for leniency for his recidivist client. The Syrian distraction is just that, a ruse. The real reason, they say, is resources, namely, gas pipelines to feed the industrialized world in general, and to perpetuate the governing structures of some middle east countries. So does this not seem to point towards the imminent arrival of Stage 2? Soon enough we will know.
Believe what you want to believe, but the next Stage, Commercial Collapse, knowing it is upon us, preparing do deal with it and live through it, is damn important to survival of us regular folks that is for sure. It is also after this Stage that I believe that a concerted effort to become politically active and strive for limited government will have the biggest effects.
So, for now, I leave you with this Part I and invite comments, criticisms, and the like. Try to focus on Orlov’s definitions of the first two Stages.
Next week I will dig into Stages 3-5, and evaluate details as well as strategies for rising up and making a difference for Stage 3. I would not be doing all this analysis if I did not believe that there is a possibility for real reform during Stage 3. So, I am not totally a doomsday believer I once was, but things sure look grim, so don’t let up on the preparation effort that is for sure.

About the Author

  352 Comments

tonyw bullion only
Sep 5, 2013 - 11:01am

Don't remember who said this

My take is "Things take longer than you expect to happen but when they happen the consequences are greater than anyone thought."

ag1969
Sep 5, 2013 - 11:02am

Obama knew

As we predicted, there has been an onslaught of lies and an orgy of government and media-driven propaganda designed to sway public opinion towards a new war in Syria. Here’s what you need to know…

It appears now that the US, Britain and its allies have been lying to the public about recent events in Syria. More evidence of both American and British involvement in the coordination and the timing of the August 21, 2013 alleged ‘chemical attacked’ is now surfacing, and will continue to surface long after this US-Israeli centered military operation is underway. Of course, there is no case for war based on the false premises which are presently being stuffed down the throats of a public who overwhelmingly do not want to see another war waged by the United States-led axis powers.

Here one item which our readers might consider sharing far and wide, written this week by Yossef Bodansky, the Director of Research at the International Strategic Studies Association (ISSA) and Senior Editor of Defense & Foreign Affairs publications (including the Global Information System: GIS), was, for more than a decade, the Director of the US House of Representatives Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare.

Readers might also consider inquiring about which British MPs and US Congressman, or Senators were present at, or around the period mentioned below, meeting with the rebel Free Syrian Army command, and ask if they have in fact violated the law, or their legal role as your elected representatives. It seems that we are being lied to…
.

Did the White House Help Plan the Syrian Chemical Attack?

.
Yossef Bodansky
Global Research
There is a growing volume of new evidence from numerous sources in the Middle East — mostly affiliated with the Syrian opposition and its sponsors and supporters — which makes a very strong case, based on solid circumstantial evidence, that the August 21, 2013, chemical strike in the Damascus suburbs was indeed a pre-meditated provocation by the Syrian opposition.

The extent of US foreknowledge of this provocation needs further investigation because available data puts the “horror” of the Barack Obama White House in a different and disturbing light. https://the-tap.blogspot.com/2013/09/obama-knew.html
zman
Sep 5, 2013 - 11:04am

Paul Van Eeden

"Fair market value for gold is $950-$1000 per ounce."

He is an investor in the junior gold sector, his claim is based on inflation.

https://www.palisadecapitalcorp.com/Palisade_Capital/Palisade_Radio.html

tyberious
Sep 5, 2013 - 11:33am

GoldSeek Live! With Jim

GoldSeek Live! With Jim Willie of the “Hat Trick Letter” and Rudi Fronk, Chairman & CEO of Seabridge Gold Inc. this coming Monday, September 9th

emotionallyrational
Sep 5, 2013 - 11:41am

Seeing that it is election time Down Under

Thought I'd share a party I just stumbled upon:

Their Aims & objectives:

a)To advocate and lobby for the concept and introduction of an “honest money system”;

b)To advocate and lobby for the introduction of a “fair tax”;

c)To endorse a system of “fair trade”, until such time as free trade is the best policy for Australia to adopt;

d)To protect our natural rights, and ensure that natural justice is practiced and upheld, with the introduction of an Australian Bill of Rights to be built into our federal constitution;

e)To move Australia’s legal system towards a system focused on justice, rather than the letter of the law;

f)To move Australia towards a system of governance that embraces Citizens Initiated Referenda (CIR)

g)To advocate and lobby for a small and efficient government, the eradication of much red-tape, and to allow for private enterprise and the market to work with minimal government intervention;

h) To implement processes and procedures that will prevent and filter out corruption in government, and to allow for greater transparency in all bureaucracies;

i)To focus on policies and initiatives that will protect and improve
the environment;

j)To ensure that our over-all approach and philosophies are consistent with a democratic,sovereign nation, that will not allow for offshore interests, including but not restricted to the UN, WTO, and WHO, to hold undue influence over Australia’s affairs. We will aim to protect, and maintain, our nation’s sovereignty, and revise any international treaties/ agreements that infringe on our nation’s sovereignty, affairs, and our way of life.

I was really excited to just KNOW that there is a political party out there that I can relate to.


Read up on them here if you are interested: https://sovereigntyparty.org.au/

Patrancus
Sep 5, 2013 - 11:42am

Inflation

Suppose anyone shelling out cash flow for their kids in college would argue about whether or not we have a little inflation in this Obummer gooberment managed economic chaos? Their is plenty enough inflation around for all if you are forced to meet with it head on.

tyberious
Sep 5, 2013 - 11:54am

JPMorgan To Stop Making

JPMorgan To Stop Making Student Loans

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2013 - 11:46

If you know you are adding more fuel to the latest and greatest credit bubble - that of student loans - and the blended return will be zero at best, why do it? That's precisely the question JPM appears to have asked itself, and when taking into consideration the persistently rising debt rates and thus the even lower probability of repayment, came to the only logical conclusion possible:

  • JPMORGAN CHASE TO STOP MAKING STUDENT LOANS -MEMO - RTRS
  • JPMORGAN CHASE WILL STOP ACCEPTING APPLICATION FOR STUDENT LOANS ON OCTOBER 12

Which means that the government, that one lender that can't and won't pull out from the student loan bubble until it finally blows up, will be even more on the hook, and require yet another bailout of this latest $1+ trillion debt house of cards.

ag1969
Sep 5, 2013 - 12:13pm

Sinclair

Dear CIGAs,

This was first proposed in Cyprus then adopted by Poland.

The radar screens of many governments are clearly focused on pension funds so you must consider what this means to you. At the very least do not make this potential problem in Euroland and North America any larger as few will listen to my counsel to close the retirement accounts by transferring the investment to your name directly, and pay the taxes due. It is time you must GOTS and financially head for the hills.

Gold is for savings. Fiat currency is for transactions.

Poland reduces public debt through pension funds overhaul
Wed Sep 4, 2013 12:56pm EDT
By Dagmara Leszkowicz and Chris Borowski

* Reform moves bond assets from private to state fund
* Some equity assets to gradually move to state as well
* Changes seen reducing Polish public debt by 8 pct of GDP
* Funds say moves could be unconstitutional
* Warnings that private pension funds could be wiped out

https://www.jsmineset.com/2013/09/05/in-the-news-today-1637/

Magpie
Sep 5, 2013 - 12:29pm

Will this time be different?

Katrina comes to mind. From the news coverage I remember, it seems as though all five stages occurred in rapid succession.

(Mr. Fix, when you read Orlov's book you may recognize yourself and Mrs. Fix in his introduction. )

ag1969
Sep 5, 2013 - 12:33pm

Magpie

That is hilarious. Only because I wish you could read the PM Mr. Fix sent me this morning. Suffice it to say, I am pretty sure he noticed exactly what you are pointing out and made the same connection. LMAO

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Forum Discussion

by NW VIEW, 2 hours 38 min ago
by sierra skier, 8 hours 55 min ago
by NW VIEW, 9 hours 57 min ago
by Porros, Aug 21, 2019 - 5:00am
by sierra skier, Aug 20, 2019 - 5:12pm
randomness