Big Thinkers: Orlov's Book and Current Events - Part 1

Thu, Sep 5, 2013 - 12:47am
The Sky is Falling! Or is it?
Dmitry Orlov’s 2013 book “The Five Stages of Collapse – Survivors’ Toolkit” is required reading. I do not say that lightly. It is a must read; do not delay. It is here:
and there are reviews posted for those inclined. I am not doing a book review. I am trying to pin down a realistic time-line, and the markers of same, in order that we all can prepare accordingly. Nothing I have read to date is as well analyzed, or presented, so for that, I am in awe. But, naturally, I have my own thoughts as to the reality that all five stages of collapse actually occur. So, this is Part I. Part II will be next Wednesday, as it all should make more sense as the Syrian situation unfolds.
From the introduction of the book through the afterward, the book is mesmerizing both in its insightful analysis, and its use of examples. It is full of humor, too. While I quarrel with the constant references to global warming–I am not a believer in that theory at all–the book is simply astonishing for its clear, yet compelling, observations. Oh, did I mention that Mr. Orlov was born in Russia, having moved to the United States as a teenager? Or that Mr. Orlov is an engineer with skills in many fields including high energy physics research, e-commerce and Internet security? Or that Mr. Orlov traveled back and forth to Russia repeatedly to observe the Soviet collapse during the late 80s and mid 90s?
All of these facts cement his credentials for me, and makes this book such a compelling read. I find it extremely important that we examine Mr. Orlov’s prism through which he views the world, because he alone seems to have the unique insight to have synthesized a world view based on personal experience as well as his education and obvious intellect. One can quarrel with his conclusions, but they are based on solid facts and experiences completely foreign to me that is for sure. Hence, I absorbed the book in rapt fascination, and I now look at the world events with a nod to the possibilities that Orlov’s predictions are accurate.
Mr. Orlov was born in Russia during the Cold War era. It is fascinating to think that he then left Russia and moved to the United States, where he then got to play video games, listen to Western pop-culture music and watch Hollywood movies. Certainly he had a taste of hard living in Russia, compared to the easy life in the United States. This had to have played a huge influence upon young Orlov.
Then, as the communist experiment began its death spasms, Mr. Orlov’s family and friends and he himself were there to witness them all to include the collapse. Personally, I remember being in an airport in Alabama at the time watching CNN showing images of the Soviet Union collapse on the video monitor. It was unbelievable, shocking–I was a former soldier, inculcated to hate the evil empire, they were the enemy dammit!; yet, my plane still showed up and left on time and I got to my destination. No one seemed to mind, or notice, and life just went on.
So, it’s not like the collapse of the fiat system in general and perhaps the USA in particular will be any life altering universe changing occurrence, although it will probably feel like that to many who are directly, initially affected. No, what Mr. Orlov writes about is a steady progression of a decaying, deteriorating, behemoth of a system, which announces its deterioration in measurable, meaningful ways. It is no mystery, nor should it be.
Anything which by definition that is unsustainable will come to an end. There is no sane person presently arguing that the current fiat system is sustainable. So, the fiat system will end, and the question then becomes what will it look like when it does start to end? Can the eventual collapse be stopped mid stream, like a magic stick save? How will we know the collapse is upon us? If the collapse is gradual, then how long will it take? What should we expect, at any given point in time, then, along the collapse continuum?
Mr. Orlov provides all the tools to reach conclusions and answers for all of these questions in detail and with examples from history. He adroitly describes an orderly process marked by five discrete stages of collapse, not all of which necessarily must occur, but which stages will occur in progressive fashion should efforts not be made to stave off the final, ruinous, back to the Stone Age collapse.
Those five stages are, in order, (1) Financial Collapse; (2) Commercial Collapse; (3) Political Collapse; (4) Social Collapse, and finally, (5) Cultural Collapse.
Without taking too much time to restate history, we all pretty much know that the financial collapse is occurring as we speak, with the first hint and outward manifestation of financial collapse occurring in 2008 and continuing ever since. Here is what Orlov says about Stage 1, the Financial Collapse: “Faith in business as usual is lost. The future is no longer assumed to resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out and access to capital is lost.” [p.14].
At this point, I firmly believe that the financial collapse is ongoing just as described, and accelerating. Understand that the process of the ongoing deterioration of the system is a gradual marginal process, and that there is no definitive point in time when there is at one moment a blissful, peaceful feeling that everything is perfectly fine, and then at the next moment there is sudden chaos and anarchy with rioting in the streets and images of roving bands of thugs streaming across our televisions. Instead, the financial collapse will continue its progress marginally, inexorably, step-by-step until such time as there is a commercial collapse. This is a completely different viewpoint I had when I first came to tfmr. I initially felt that collapse was IMMINENT!! Grab the weapons, food, water and gold/silver, time to bug out!
Well, I was dead wrong. Stupidly so. But how could I have been so misguided? Was it gullibility? Madison Avenue marketing? Human nature normalcy bias?
Whatever. Only now, I see things in a different, more analytical light, thanks to Mr. Orlov’s writings. Make no mistake, though. It is crystal clear that the Financial Collapse is ongoing, right now, leading soon enough I believe, though gradually to Stage 2, Commercial Collapse.
Understand that Santa told everyone to get out of the financial system. Cyprus banks initiated the bail-in. The ground work has been laid out. It is all legal and all the details worked out. Plenty has been written about the pending stealing of funds on deposit at banks, retirement accounts, name it. Look at what is happening in Argentina. If those Argentinian bond holders are stiffed, then that supposedly valuable New York paper is not so valuable now, is it? All of this is coming to pass as predicted, and the signs are obvious to anyone who wants to look.
The fiat system is broken. Risk assessment is now based on predicting the words of the Fed bankster in charge, then front run on huge computers to shear the sheep of fractions of pennies. The worlds’ unregulated derivatives dwarf the world GDP. A small hiccup will destroy the entire scheme, overnight. We are there.
This leads us to Stage 2, the Commercial Collapse. Orlov says this: “Faith that the market shall provide is lost. Money is devalued and or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down in widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.” [p.14].
It sure does not look like this Stage yet to me, but it sure seems damn close, too. But, by looking closely, the Syrian situation is telegraphing the proximity of when this Stage will occur. Many, many commentators have weighed in about Syria, and how the whole military situation, the bombing, the invasion, the troops really point in one direction;
The US President, a laughing stock, says at one moment that Syria crossed a red line, but now tries to wiggle out from under his own words, like a hack criminal defense attorney arguing for leniency for his recidivist client. The Syrian distraction is just that, a ruse. The real reason, they say, is resources, namely, gas pipelines to feed the industrialized world in general, and to perpetuate the governing structures of some middle east countries. So does this not seem to point towards the imminent arrival of Stage 2? Soon enough we will know.
Believe what you want to believe, but the next Stage, Commercial Collapse, knowing it is upon us, preparing do deal with it and live through it, is damn important to survival of us regular folks that is for sure. It is also after this Stage that I believe that a concerted effort to become politically active and strive for limited government will have the biggest effects.
So, for now, I leave you with this Part I and invite comments, criticisms, and the like. Try to focus on Orlov’s definitions of the first two Stages.
Next week I will dig into Stages 3-5, and evaluate details as well as strategies for rising up and making a difference for Stage 3. I would not be doing all this analysis if I did not believe that there is a possibility for real reform during Stage 3. So, I am not totally a doomsday believer I once was, but things sure look grim, so don’t let up on the preparation effort that is for sure.

About the Author


Be Prepared
Sep 7, 2013 - 8:34am

Knowledge vs Conjecture

CL has brought us a framework in which to see how our current state of affairs might align to some thoughts about how empires/countries collapse towards their demise. This thread has shifted somewhat into seeing a connecting thread into any piece of news or conjecture and neatly fitting into another example or step relating to the demise of the U.S. It's important, though, to thread carefully and remind ourselves that we can also be blinded by "normalcy bias" in looking at any piece of news, gossip or conjecture as fulfilling our thoughts thereby confirming and supporting those perceptions.

As an awaken group, I do think it's healthy to push the limits of any discussion to see where the outliers are as compared to what the MSM is feeding to us for consumption. Finding and maintaining a semblance of truth is difficult in these manufacturer times, but bending information to fit is also a problem. We don't want to become sheeple of another order where we blindly see conspiracies everywhere we look... I bring this up to push each other to seek a base of knowledge and information that is as close to the truth as possible. :-)

Sep 7, 2013 - 8:34am

@Mr. Fix . . . re: BHO vs. bankers . . .

I would think if the bankers thought obama was off-course, and has pushed this thing too far, he'd be Arkancided as was JFK. Of course, this is all happening very quickly now--so they may not have had time to create the cover story.

I heard months ago that obama would not finish out his second term . . . the reason was given, but I need not repeat it here.

Sep 7, 2013 - 8:02am

Atarangi - poor form

>>>Why is that dude above Obama wearing Wimmin's panties on his head?<<<

This comment is poor form on your part, Sir.


Sep 7, 2013 - 7:54am

The evil amongst us

For those taking the time to chime in on sociopaths vs psychopaths, thank you. I believe it is important to know one's enemy.

The following link has some very interesting comments, which I find more revealing than the article itself. But then, how can you tell if a socio/psychopath is telling the truth...any truth?

And for those who are curious about themselves, there is this one....I dare you to try, and report back. I'll admit that I didn't try it, as I believe myself too empathic to be one of those "special" people. I cannot even watch America's funniest videos without cringing and averting my eyes from other's pain, and news stories of cruelty always bring tears to my eyes. But then, how do you know that I'm telling you the truth?

Urban RomanGeorge Clooney
Sep 7, 2013 - 7:53am

RE: Devious indeed.


It's worse than that -- the Rothchild clan planned all this in minute detail 500 years ago, including the collection of yahoos at the G20.

Good post, though. Yeah, these arrogant narcissistic assholes will fragment. No damn telling where the pieces will fall.

Sep 7, 2013 - 7:44am

some people

will believe anything in order to feed and justify their paranoia.........and that's meant to be explanatory and not derogatory........actually another case [tho variable] of human nature.

even to the point of ignoring basic human traits and nature, as communism does..... and the fallacy of believing someone in power is going to purposefully destroy the basis of their own power.......which is ridiculous unless they are a foreign agent......which as much as i REALLY detest obozo, he is obviously not........only a socialist which there are more n more and alot of already.

when its really extend and pretend and keep the wheels rolling thru any means.....and expand your power base-not destroy it...........which IS human nature.

along with maximize today's position at the possible [even probable] risk of tomorrow's.

it's what has made us animals the masters of the rest of the animals on the planet, including other 'human' species-they are extinct afterall and we are not............and will not be for a long awhile yet.....we are too resourceful.

but yes, at this point it will cost us something...........and sometime in the future possibly almost everything.

Sep 7, 2013 - 5:16am

Anything that happens you will bend to fit your theory

Like I always say, he is determined to destroy the United States, and what the heck, why not take out all of Western civilization while he's at it? This would explain the war that seems to be brewing behind the scenes between the Pentagon and the White House, it's kind of like the one world order folks versus radical Islam. Although both sides have been working towards the destruction of the United States for a long time, the European elites that run the banking cabal might have bitten off more than they can chew when they put Obama in the White House, he seems to have deceived them as well.

What a carefully crafted plan. Each new event, or non-event, in this case the potential blowing up of Syria, you will interpret as the next devious step in a master plan that has so many heads you yourself are now having to specify which banking cartel is meant to be in charge.

And now Obama is a Saudi agent? Those banking cartel people are awesome - in their apparent stupidity and failure to vet their puppet. How will he get those Soviet troops here now? Or maybe it was a mock fight, so they could hide their cooperation. Devious indeed.

This is a floating stew of paranoia. Is it the Pope at the head of it all? Of course it is, you just wont say so out of respect for TF. He always chooses the US president, and the European elite, all of them, and the ECB heads. Honestly the more you rant the more you contradict yourself.

We are much closer when we discuss sociopaths and psychopaths and the reasons individuals seek power and control.

You are not actually alone in having been closely affected by mental illness, and it is ludicrous to use that as a claim to a superior understanding. I too have that kind of knowledge, and we reach totally different conclusions. Mine is that this collection of sociopaths and psychopaths cooperate when it is to their individual best interests and immediately fracture when those interests are not being met. Their interests often do align of course, as when grabbing power in an organization. But once they have it, the shooting begins, as Stalin so clearly demonstrated.

Sep 7, 2013 - 5:11am

Obama spat the dummy? - -

The article about Obama spitting his dummy at g20, throwing his teddy bear out of the cot and calling Putin a jackass looks like a load of old cobblers.

Sep 7, 2013 - 4:04am

O Saudi Agent

Damn that Ann is a hellion...and I mean that in a good way. (I kept imaging her and the fella talking politics over a pizza, and the poor dude could hardly get a word in edgewise)

Yes, this rings pretty much true, as O seems to be pretty much a Saudi stooge...and most likely he was groomed to be exactly what the world bankers wanted him to be...a nice young man, with a sweet family, who could read pretty well from a teleprompter, get himself elected, and do their bidding "from here to eternity." But if not, there was always a stooge named Mc Cain willing to bend over for them, up down and sideways.

Big picture: as they say the "best-laid plans of mice and men often go astray."

No matter the conniving, the deceit, and endless N.W.O. contrivances to keep the odds for power stacked in their favor, perhaps it's the "butterfly effect," or some random black swan that will bring these greedy monsters down to their knees.

Wasn't it LTCM that thought they sort of had a handle on chaos theory?

Sort of reminds me of the "Newly Wed Game" of the 70's where men would guess their brides answers to even simple questions, with about a 50% success rate.

You know how they say: "First thought, best thought," or don't second guess yourself...well my first thought is that the money printing game that the FED and all the central banks have been doing, is now coming home to roost...and my best thought is not a not a good thought all, because TPTB are now going to do their best to start WWIII.

Mr. Fix
Sep 7, 2013 - 2:33am

Guys, listen to this!!! Obama is a saudi agent!


Published on Sep 5, 2013

This Labor Day weekend, Obama announced that he has decided to use military force against Syria and would seek authorization from Congress. But Ann Barnhardt, founder of the former Barnhardt Capital Management, believes this war will end up involving more countries than only the U.S. and Syria; Barnhardt predicts this war will be World War III.

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