Big Thinkers: Orlov's Book and Current Events - Part 1

352
Thu, Sep 5, 2013 - 12:47am
The Sky is Falling! Or is it?
Dmitry Orlov’s 2013 book “The Five Stages of Collapse – Survivors’ Toolkit” is required reading. I do not say that lightly. It is a must read; do not delay. It is here:
and there are reviews posted for those inclined. I am not doing a book review. I am trying to pin down a realistic time-line, and the markers of same, in order that we all can prepare accordingly. Nothing I have read to date is as well analyzed, or presented, so for that, I am in awe. But, naturally, I have my own thoughts as to the reality that all five stages of collapse actually occur. So, this is Part I. Part II will be next Wednesday, as it all should make more sense as the Syrian situation unfolds.
From the introduction of the book through the afterward, the book is mesmerizing both in its insightful analysis, and its use of examples. It is full of humor, too. While I quarrel with the constant references to global warming–I am not a believer in that theory at all–the book is simply astonishing for its clear, yet compelling, observations. Oh, did I mention that Mr. Orlov was born in Russia, having moved to the United States as a teenager? Or that Mr. Orlov is an engineer with skills in many fields including high energy physics research, e-commerce and Internet security? Or that Mr. Orlov traveled back and forth to Russia repeatedly to observe the Soviet collapse during the late 80s and mid 90s?
All of these facts cement his credentials for me, and makes this book such a compelling read. I find it extremely important that we examine Mr. Orlov’s prism through which he views the world, because he alone seems to have the unique insight to have synthesized a world view based on personal experience as well as his education and obvious intellect. One can quarrel with his conclusions, but they are based on solid facts and experiences completely foreign to me that is for sure. Hence, I absorbed the book in rapt fascination, and I now look at the world events with a nod to the possibilities that Orlov’s predictions are accurate.
Mr. Orlov was born in Russia during the Cold War era. It is fascinating to think that he then left Russia and moved to the United States, where he then got to play video games, listen to Western pop-culture music and watch Hollywood movies. Certainly he had a taste of hard living in Russia, compared to the easy life in the United States. This had to have played a huge influence upon young Orlov.
Then, as the communist experiment began its death spasms, Mr. Orlov’s family and friends and he himself were there to witness them all to include the collapse. Personally, I remember being in an airport in Alabama at the time watching CNN showing images of the Soviet Union collapse on the video monitor. It was unbelievable, shocking–I was a former soldier, inculcated to hate the evil empire, they were the enemy dammit!; yet, my plane still showed up and left on time and I got to my destination. No one seemed to mind, or notice, and life just went on.
So, it’s not like the collapse of the fiat system in general and perhaps the USA in particular will be any life altering universe changing occurrence, although it will probably feel like that to many who are directly, initially affected. No, what Mr. Orlov writes about is a steady progression of a decaying, deteriorating, behemoth of a system, which announces its deterioration in measurable, meaningful ways. It is no mystery, nor should it be.
Anything which by definition that is unsustainable will come to an end. There is no sane person presently arguing that the current fiat system is sustainable. So, the fiat system will end, and the question then becomes what will it look like when it does start to end? Can the eventual collapse be stopped mid stream, like a magic stick save? How will we know the collapse is upon us? If the collapse is gradual, then how long will it take? What should we expect, at any given point in time, then, along the collapse continuum?
Mr. Orlov provides all the tools to reach conclusions and answers for all of these questions in detail and with examples from history. He adroitly describes an orderly process marked by five discrete stages of collapse, not all of which necessarily must occur, but which stages will occur in progressive fashion should efforts not be made to stave off the final, ruinous, back to the Stone Age collapse.
Those five stages are, in order, (1) Financial Collapse; (2) Commercial Collapse; (3) Political Collapse; (4) Social Collapse, and finally, (5) Cultural Collapse.
Without taking too much time to restate history, we all pretty much know that the financial collapse is occurring as we speak, with the first hint and outward manifestation of financial collapse occurring in 2008 and continuing ever since. Here is what Orlov says about Stage 1, the Financial Collapse: “Faith in business as usual is lost. The future is no longer assumed to resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out and access to capital is lost.” [p.14].
At this point, I firmly believe that the financial collapse is ongoing just as described, and accelerating. Understand that the process of the ongoing deterioration of the system is a gradual marginal process, and that there is no definitive point in time when there is at one moment a blissful, peaceful feeling that everything is perfectly fine, and then at the next moment there is sudden chaos and anarchy with rioting in the streets and images of roving bands of thugs streaming across our televisions. Instead, the financial collapse will continue its progress marginally, inexorably, step-by-step until such time as there is a commercial collapse. This is a completely different viewpoint I had when I first came to tfmr. I initially felt that collapse was IMMINENT!! Grab the weapons, food, water and gold/silver, time to bug out!
Well, I was dead wrong. Stupidly so. But how could I have been so misguided? Was it gullibility? Madison Avenue marketing? Human nature normalcy bias?
Whatever. Only now, I see things in a different, more analytical light, thanks to Mr. Orlov’s writings. Make no mistake, though. It is crystal clear that the Financial Collapse is ongoing, right now, leading soon enough I believe, though gradually to Stage 2, Commercial Collapse.
Understand that Santa told everyone to get out of the financial system. Cyprus banks initiated the bail-in. The ground work has been laid out. It is all legal and all the details worked out. Plenty has been written about the pending stealing of funds on deposit at banks, retirement accounts, name it. Look at what is happening in Argentina. If those Argentinian bond holders are stiffed, then that supposedly valuable New York paper is not so valuable now, is it? All of this is coming to pass as predicted, and the signs are obvious to anyone who wants to look.
The fiat system is broken. Risk assessment is now based on predicting the words of the Fed bankster in charge, then front run on huge computers to shear the sheep of fractions of pennies. The worlds’ unregulated derivatives dwarf the world GDP. A small hiccup will destroy the entire scheme, overnight. We are there.
This leads us to Stage 2, the Commercial Collapse. Orlov says this: “Faith that the market shall provide is lost. Money is devalued and or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down in widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.” [p.14].
It sure does not look like this Stage yet to me, but it sure seems damn close, too. But, by looking closely, the Syrian situation is telegraphing the proximity of when this Stage will occur. Many, many commentators have weighed in about Syria, and how the whole military situation, the bombing, the invasion, the troops really point in one direction;
The US President, a laughing stock, says at one moment that Syria crossed a red line, but now tries to wiggle out from under his own words, like a hack criminal defense attorney arguing for leniency for his recidivist client. The Syrian distraction is just that, a ruse. The real reason, they say, is resources, namely, gas pipelines to feed the industrialized world in general, and to perpetuate the governing structures of some middle east countries. So does this not seem to point towards the imminent arrival of Stage 2? Soon enough we will know.
Believe what you want to believe, but the next Stage, Commercial Collapse, knowing it is upon us, preparing do deal with it and live through it, is damn important to survival of us regular folks that is for sure. It is also after this Stage that I believe that a concerted effort to become politically active and strive for limited government will have the biggest effects.
So, for now, I leave you with this Part I and invite comments, criticisms, and the like. Try to focus on Orlov’s definitions of the first two Stages.
Next week I will dig into Stages 3-5, and evaluate details as well as strategies for rising up and making a difference for Stage 3. I would not be doing all this analysis if I did not believe that there is a possibility for real reform during Stage 3. So, I am not totally a doomsday believer I once was, but things sure look grim, so don’t let up on the preparation effort that is for sure.

About the Author

  352 Comments

Sep 5, 2013 - 10:02am

Yes, it is different this time, what was I thinking ...

arghhh.

(That was sarcasm, in case I am more opaque than usual. Must be a dark mood making me cryptic. It is not different this time, it will unfold slowly and then quickly, but not in a radically different fashion. Could be 100 years of decay under a NWO, for example. I think things might be a little more like they always are, and a little like the always weren't, for many a year to come.)

Patrancus
Sep 5, 2013 - 10:08am
Deerhunter
Sep 5, 2013 - 10:12am

Think of one in six

Think of one in six Americans, legal and illegal being fed by your tax dollars. Think of just over a million dollars per missile being lobbed at Syria. Think of sex education being taught to second and third graders and men marrying each other or women being an alternate legitimate option not only discussed but encouraged to our kids in government schools. Great Awakening? I think not. Possible ? All things are possible with God. How can a twenty foot missile with a 1000 lbs payload cost over one million dollars. It could be made of solid platinum and not cost that much. Follow the money. Almighty dollar? There is only one Almighty. In God we trust?? I think not nor have we for more than two generations. What is coming to America is festering and floating to the top now like pond scum. Stagnant water breeds disease. Dis- ease---- but they that wait upon the Lord shall renew their strength, the will run and not be weary and shall walk and not faint. Great Awakening? I hope. How do they begin?? One man and woman and child at a time looking up and crying out for help,,, if I offend anyone here, I will not apologize, if you don't like what I write it is certainly your choice, truth needs no defense, have a great day.

Monedas
Sep 5, 2013 - 10:15am

You're pretty safe, Xty !

The Negroes of Ohio and Pennsylvania don't swim well .... heavy bones .... especially in cold, fresh water .... which is less buoyant .... and they don't seem to have any of those Haitian "yachts" (really poor Negroes are more inventive) to storm the Ontario beaches .... and seek asylum ! LOL Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad I Suppose That Was Rayciss World Tour

Monedas
Sep 5, 2013 - 10:24am

This place needs some EXCITEMENT !

Those last two posts .... were not hateful .... they were civil .... and raised legitimate concerns .... and would sure as Heck Fire stimulate a little lively conversation .... and don't worry about me .... I can not only take the heat .... I enjoy it ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Mind Of Steel And Balls Of Brass World Tour

Monedas
Sep 5, 2013 - 10:34am

Now you know .... why McCain was playing poker !

People hate BOREDOM .... and congressional hearings .... and unfortunately this blog .... have become too PC .... Predictably Conservative ! Maybe we could get some Black Caucus women to join TFMR .... they'd fit right in .... they were born boring ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad I Deal In Solutions To Boring World Tour PS: Print those posts .... dare ya .... you know they would liven up the debate ?

zman
Sep 5, 2013 - 10:40am

10 year bond

As the 10 year bond approaching the 3.00% level (now at 2.98%), one would think it would be bullish for the PM's, but thus far, it has not.

Interest rates have a way long to go higher before it would be bullish for gold, if rates were even to move much higher in the years ahead.

Monedasag1969
Sep 5, 2013 - 10:54am

AG1969 !

Jon Stewart missed .... telling every one .... that Wolf Blitzer believed McCain .... for more than a moment .... when McCain said he had lost thousands of dollars .... and the stupid McCain .... was a convenient foil .... to detract from the Secretary of State John Heinz' pathetic performance .... doesn't anyone listen to Rush ? Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Rush Is Show Prep For The MSM And They Still Get It Wrong World Tour

monkrymonkry
Sep 5, 2013 - 10:58am

Copper fixed

S-ware now reporting copper back to $3.2x, it was at $2.14 not sure what is to blame, probably kitco's kcast.

MonedasDeerhunter
Sep 5, 2013 - 11:01am

OneEagleSings ?

Believe me, a missile .... with a 1000 lb payload .... fully fueled and all .... made of Platinum .... would cost more than a million .... way more .... it would have to be re-engineered from the ground up .... to account for the extra weight .... but, your point is well taken .... missiles aren't cheap ! LOL Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Resident Of Realville World Tour

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