Big Thinkers: Orlov's Book and Current Events - Part 1

352
Thu, Sep 5, 2013 - 12:47am
The Sky is Falling! Or is it?
Dmitry Orlov’s 2013 book “The Five Stages of Collapse – Survivors’ Toolkit” is required reading. I do not say that lightly. It is a must read; do not delay. It is here:
and there are reviews posted for those inclined. I am not doing a book review. I am trying to pin down a realistic time-line, and the markers of same, in order that we all can prepare accordingly. Nothing I have read to date is as well analyzed, or presented, so for that, I am in awe. But, naturally, I have my own thoughts as to the reality that all five stages of collapse actually occur. So, this is Part I. Part II will be next Wednesday, as it all should make more sense as the Syrian situation unfolds.
From the introduction of the book through the afterward, the book is mesmerizing both in its insightful analysis, and its use of examples. It is full of humor, too. While I quarrel with the constant references to global warming–I am not a believer in that theory at all–the book is simply astonishing for its clear, yet compelling, observations. Oh, did I mention that Mr. Orlov was born in Russia, having moved to the United States as a teenager? Or that Mr. Orlov is an engineer with skills in many fields including high energy physics research, e-commerce and Internet security? Or that Mr. Orlov traveled back and forth to Russia repeatedly to observe the Soviet collapse during the late 80s and mid 90s?
All of these facts cement his credentials for me, and makes this book such a compelling read. I find it extremely important that we examine Mr. Orlov’s prism through which he views the world, because he alone seems to have the unique insight to have synthesized a world view based on personal experience as well as his education and obvious intellect. One can quarrel with his conclusions, but they are based on solid facts and experiences completely foreign to me that is for sure. Hence, I absorbed the book in rapt fascination, and I now look at the world events with a nod to the possibilities that Orlov’s predictions are accurate.
Mr. Orlov was born in Russia during the Cold War era. It is fascinating to think that he then left Russia and moved to the United States, where he then got to play video games, listen to Western pop-culture music and watch Hollywood movies. Certainly he had a taste of hard living in Russia, compared to the easy life in the United States. This had to have played a huge influence upon young Orlov.
Then, as the communist experiment began its death spasms, Mr. Orlov’s family and friends and he himself were there to witness them all to include the collapse. Personally, I remember being in an airport in Alabama at the time watching CNN showing images of the Soviet Union collapse on the video monitor. It was unbelievable, shocking–I was a former soldier, inculcated to hate the evil empire, they were the enemy dammit!; yet, my plane still showed up and left on time and I got to my destination. No one seemed to mind, or notice, and life just went on.
So, it’s not like the collapse of the fiat system in general and perhaps the USA in particular will be any life altering universe changing occurrence, although it will probably feel like that to many who are directly, initially affected. No, what Mr. Orlov writes about is a steady progression of a decaying, deteriorating, behemoth of a system, which announces its deterioration in measurable, meaningful ways. It is no mystery, nor should it be.
Anything which by definition that is unsustainable will come to an end. There is no sane person presently arguing that the current fiat system is sustainable. So, the fiat system will end, and the question then becomes what will it look like when it does start to end? Can the eventual collapse be stopped mid stream, like a magic stick save? How will we know the collapse is upon us? If the collapse is gradual, then how long will it take? What should we expect, at any given point in time, then, along the collapse continuum?
Mr. Orlov provides all the tools to reach conclusions and answers for all of these questions in detail and with examples from history. He adroitly describes an orderly process marked by five discrete stages of collapse, not all of which necessarily must occur, but which stages will occur in progressive fashion should efforts not be made to stave off the final, ruinous, back to the Stone Age collapse.
Those five stages are, in order, (1) Financial Collapse; (2) Commercial Collapse; (3) Political Collapse; (4) Social Collapse, and finally, (5) Cultural Collapse.
Without taking too much time to restate history, we all pretty much know that the financial collapse is occurring as we speak, with the first hint and outward manifestation of financial collapse occurring in 2008 and continuing ever since. Here is what Orlov says about Stage 1, the Financial Collapse: “Faith in business as usual is lost. The future is no longer assumed to resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out and access to capital is lost.” [p.14].
At this point, I firmly believe that the financial collapse is ongoing just as described, and accelerating. Understand that the process of the ongoing deterioration of the system is a gradual marginal process, and that there is no definitive point in time when there is at one moment a blissful, peaceful feeling that everything is perfectly fine, and then at the next moment there is sudden chaos and anarchy with rioting in the streets and images of roving bands of thugs streaming across our televisions. Instead, the financial collapse will continue its progress marginally, inexorably, step-by-step until such time as there is a commercial collapse. This is a completely different viewpoint I had when I first came to tfmr. I initially felt that collapse was IMMINENT!! Grab the weapons, food, water and gold/silver, time to bug out!
Well, I was dead wrong. Stupidly so. But how could I have been so misguided? Was it gullibility? Madison Avenue marketing? Human nature normalcy bias?
Whatever. Only now, I see things in a different, more analytical light, thanks to Mr. Orlov’s writings. Make no mistake, though. It is crystal clear that the Financial Collapse is ongoing, right now, leading soon enough I believe, though gradually to Stage 2, Commercial Collapse.
Understand that Santa told everyone to get out of the financial system. Cyprus banks initiated the bail-in. The ground work has been laid out. It is all legal and all the details worked out. Plenty has been written about the pending stealing of funds on deposit at banks, retirement accounts, name it. Look at what is happening in Argentina. If those Argentinian bond holders are stiffed, then that supposedly valuable New York paper is not so valuable now, is it? All of this is coming to pass as predicted, and the signs are obvious to anyone who wants to look.
The fiat system is broken. Risk assessment is now based on predicting the words of the Fed bankster in charge, then front run on huge computers to shear the sheep of fractions of pennies. The worlds’ unregulated derivatives dwarf the world GDP. A small hiccup will destroy the entire scheme, overnight. We are there.
This leads us to Stage 2, the Commercial Collapse. Orlov says this: “Faith that the market shall provide is lost. Money is devalued and or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down in widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.” [p.14].
It sure does not look like this Stage yet to me, but it sure seems damn close, too. But, by looking closely, the Syrian situation is telegraphing the proximity of when this Stage will occur. Many, many commentators have weighed in about Syria, and how the whole military situation, the bombing, the invasion, the troops really point in one direction;
The US President, a laughing stock, says at one moment that Syria crossed a red line, but now tries to wiggle out from under his own words, like a hack criminal defense attorney arguing for leniency for his recidivist client. The Syrian distraction is just that, a ruse. The real reason, they say, is resources, namely, gas pipelines to feed the industrialized world in general, and to perpetuate the governing structures of some middle east countries. So does this not seem to point towards the imminent arrival of Stage 2? Soon enough we will know.
Believe what you want to believe, but the next Stage, Commercial Collapse, knowing it is upon us, preparing do deal with it and live through it, is damn important to survival of us regular folks that is for sure. It is also after this Stage that I believe that a concerted effort to become politically active and strive for limited government will have the biggest effects.
So, for now, I leave you with this Part I and invite comments, criticisms, and the like. Try to focus on Orlov’s definitions of the first two Stages.
Next week I will dig into Stages 3-5, and evaluate details as well as strategies for rising up and making a difference for Stage 3. I would not be doing all this analysis if I did not believe that there is a possibility for real reform during Stage 3. So, I am not totally a doomsday believer I once was, but things sure look grim, so don’t let up on the preparation effort that is for sure.

About the Author

  352 Comments

silver66George Clooney
Sep 5, 2013 - 9:07am

Xty--collapse not a bad thing

Richard Maybury is of the same thought process as him. For those that have not read Richard he publishes the Early Warning Report (google it) and has published a series of books. The books ar ethe Uncle Eric series. I would suggest buying and givint to your children to read after you have read them

Silver66

Sep 5, 2013 - 9:07am

Layers of chess: G20 meeting starts today

Obama just arrived in St. Petersburg and the meetings will be today and tomorrow... remember, a committee topic is slated to be Reinventing Bretton Woods and it looks like the committee and panel discussion are primarily Russians.

I suspect the press (NYT) coverage will be focused on Syria and stuff like this:

Putin told Russian state television that it was “completely ridiculous” to conclude that Syrian forces were responsible for a chemical weapons attack on Aug. 21, and he said Secretary of State John Kerry “is lying and knows he is lying” about Al-Qaeda’s presence in Syria.... Mr. Obama canceled plans to stop in Moscow first for a separate meeting with Mr. Putin and opted against even a standard courtesy call on his host here in St. Petersburg.

The two will inevitably see each other and even talk on the sidelines of the official meetings here while everyone watches their body language, but even that was made harder by a last-minute change of the seating chart. Leaders at such summit meetings are typically seated in the alphabetical order of their country names. But according to the Russian newspaper Izvestiya, the Russian government decided to use English letters, not Russian letters, effectively moving Mr. Obama and Mr. Putin farther away from each other.

The important stuff seems like it will be ignored by the press. Certain countries have grown disillusioned with the USD/Bretton Woods system and if moves are made away from this system or plans hinted at publicly in these meetings, that would be the real news. I wonder if we will even learn about it, from whatever sources we can find? Keep your eyes and ears open, Turdites.

¤
Sep 5, 2013 - 9:23am

P4

Thanks for that G20 heads up and the link.

I agree...we're in a distractive news cycle right now while lots of other big issue's are getting less air time.

I'll keep my eye's peeled for any notable low key G20 comments.

Watcher
Sep 5, 2013 - 9:33am

Russia Warns Of Nuclear Disaster If Syria Is Attacked...

Russia Warns Of Nuclear Disaster If Syria Is Attacked...

Of course Spetsnaz could make sure this happens:

"From the first moment of the first day of war the main forces of spetsnaz go into action. From then on the terror is conducted in the name of the Soviet Union and of the Communist leadership: 'red terror'.

But between the 'grey' and the 'red' terror there may be an intermediate period — the 'pink' terror, when active military operations have not yet begun and there is still peace, but when some of the best spetsnaz units have already gone into action. The situation is complicated by the fact that, on the one hand, Soviet fighting units are already in battle, but that, on the other hand, they are not yet operating in the name of the Soviet Union. This is an exceptionally risky moment for the Soviet high command. But he who risks nothing gains nothing. The Soviet commanders want to gain a great deal, and so are ready to risk a lot. A great deal has of course been done to reduce the level of risk. Only a relatively small number of spetsnaz troops take part in the 'pink' terror, but they are the best people in spetsnaz — professional athletes of Olympic class. Everything has been done to make sure that not one of them should fall into the hands of the enemy before the outbreak of war. A great deal has also been done to ensure that, if one of them should fall into enemy hands at that moment, it would be very difficult to establish his connection with any country whatsoever."

https://militera.lib.ru/research/suvorov6/15.html

ag1969
Sep 5, 2013 - 9:42am

Global Leadership Reset: On Eve of G20, Putin Calls Kerry a Liar

Just before Russian President Vladimir Putin opened the G20 summit in St. Petersburg, he blasted the Obama administration on Wednesday for what he termed its propaganda on military action against Syria. “We talk with these people,” he said about Secretary of State John Kerry, the administration’s chief political spokesperson making the case for war. “We assume that they are decent. But he lies. And he knows that he lies. That’s pathetic.”

https://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2013/09/04/Putin-Obama-Kerry-G20

ag1969
Sep 5, 2013 - 9:48am

Hilarious

Jon Stewart went NUTS about the U.S. going to War in Syria!

https://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-september-4-2013/groundhog-deja-clusterf--k

Mr. Fix
Sep 5, 2013 - 9:49am

Xty,

if I inferred by my post that I completely disagreed with the author, then I might have been misinterpreted, as I find all five steps both valid and particularly pertinent to the situation that we find ourselves in now.

Of course I agree that the stages have been repeated throughout history on a regular basis, and that societal collapse is predictable, and it is due to the nature of man. On all that we agree.

I was only offering for consideration that past collapses, have usually been the result of human nature such as absolute power corrupts absolutely, and that sooner or later the corruption takes down the entire system.

I was only offering as evidence that there has been a premeditated undermining of all five steps over the past several generations, and that this particular collapse seems to have been pre-engineered, and built into the system in ways that previous collapses have not.

The five steps if left to natural causes would unfold in roughly the order in which they are stated.

It is my contention that at least the last two and probably three steps have already passed.

So to give you an example, if you were to take the fall of the Roman empire, the steps unfolded in the right order, because the corruption of the oligarchs at the top eventually crash the entire system, and it unfolded one step at a time. It is unlikely that the ancient Romans set out to crash their empire from the get-go. They were simply unable to keep their system intact, it collapsed as a result of its economy and its capital being squandered, to enrich the oligarchs.

I am only proposing this small difference here in that this time the elites at the top had a predetermined plan to use the five steps, and bring about their completion, and that when the currency finally collapses, we will find that the remaining steps have already been pre-initiated intentionally, and that the total collapse was the goal in the first place, not the result.

It's kind of like reversing cause and effect.

I know that California Lawyer said that he will be addressing points three, four, and five, next week,

and admittedly, I am off topic by jumping the gun, but historically speaking those steps are the result of the first two steps, this time, those steps, particularly four and five, have been intentionally and systematically undermined for decades.

In the Great Depression, for example, people still had faith in politicians, faith in God and each other, faith in society as a whole, and people worked hard to help each other survive what was arguably an economic collapse.

It will not be that way this time, since then, the very aspects that help hold society together despite extreme poverty, have been carefully and systematically removed. They are already gone. That was my point.

monkry
Sep 5, 2013 - 9:51am

Copper-down over a buck

Is this right? Copper down by over a buck this a.m.?

hai
Sep 5, 2013 - 9:54am
Monedas
Sep 5, 2013 - 10:01am

Thanks Katie Rosebud !

But, why should I seek your advice .... you had to live in several communes .... to decide with heavy heart ....they had not yet been perfected .... or mankind was not yet deserving to enjoy their benefits .... you seem to still be living in a modified commune .... with larcenous, temporary workers .... living in motorhomes on your property .... your hippie days must have broke your mother's heart .... and she's still crying ? Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Post This World Tour

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