Big Thinkers: Orlov's Book and Current Events - Part 1

Thu, Sep 5, 2013 - 12:47am
The Sky is Falling! Or is it?
Dmitry Orlov’s 2013 book “The Five Stages of Collapse – Survivors’ Toolkit” is required reading. I do not say that lightly. It is a must read; do not delay. It is here:
and there are reviews posted for those inclined. I am not doing a book review. I am trying to pin down a realistic time-line, and the markers of same, in order that we all can prepare accordingly. Nothing I have read to date is as well analyzed, or presented, so for that, I am in awe. But, naturally, I have my own thoughts as to the reality that all five stages of collapse actually occur. So, this is Part I. Part II will be next Wednesday, as it all should make more sense as the Syrian situation unfolds.
From the introduction of the book through the afterward, the book is mesmerizing both in its insightful analysis, and its use of examples. It is full of humor, too. While I quarrel with the constant references to global warming–I am not a believer in that theory at all–the book is simply astonishing for its clear, yet compelling, observations. Oh, did I mention that Mr. Orlov was born in Russia, having moved to the United States as a teenager? Or that Mr. Orlov is an engineer with skills in many fields including high energy physics research, e-commerce and Internet security? Or that Mr. Orlov traveled back and forth to Russia repeatedly to observe the Soviet collapse during the late 80s and mid 90s?
All of these facts cement his credentials for me, and makes this book such a compelling read. I find it extremely important that we examine Mr. Orlov’s prism through which he views the world, because he alone seems to have the unique insight to have synthesized a world view based on personal experience as well as his education and obvious intellect. One can quarrel with his conclusions, but they are based on solid facts and experiences completely foreign to me that is for sure. Hence, I absorbed the book in rapt fascination, and I now look at the world events with a nod to the possibilities that Orlov’s predictions are accurate.
Mr. Orlov was born in Russia during the Cold War era. It is fascinating to think that he then left Russia and moved to the United States, where he then got to play video games, listen to Western pop-culture music and watch Hollywood movies. Certainly he had a taste of hard living in Russia, compared to the easy life in the United States. This had to have played a huge influence upon young Orlov.
Then, as the communist experiment began its death spasms, Mr. Orlov’s family and friends and he himself were there to witness them all to include the collapse. Personally, I remember being in an airport in Alabama at the time watching CNN showing images of the Soviet Union collapse on the video monitor. It was unbelievable, shocking–I was a former soldier, inculcated to hate the evil empire, they were the enemy dammit!; yet, my plane still showed up and left on time and I got to my destination. No one seemed to mind, or notice, and life just went on.
So, it’s not like the collapse of the fiat system in general and perhaps the USA in particular will be any life altering universe changing occurrence, although it will probably feel like that to many who are directly, initially affected. No, what Mr. Orlov writes about is a steady progression of a decaying, deteriorating, behemoth of a system, which announces its deterioration in measurable, meaningful ways. It is no mystery, nor should it be.
Anything which by definition that is unsustainable will come to an end. There is no sane person presently arguing that the current fiat system is sustainable. So, the fiat system will end, and the question then becomes what will it look like when it does start to end? Can the eventual collapse be stopped mid stream, like a magic stick save? How will we know the collapse is upon us? If the collapse is gradual, then how long will it take? What should we expect, at any given point in time, then, along the collapse continuum?
Mr. Orlov provides all the tools to reach conclusions and answers for all of these questions in detail and with examples from history. He adroitly describes an orderly process marked by five discrete stages of collapse, not all of which necessarily must occur, but which stages will occur in progressive fashion should efforts not be made to stave off the final, ruinous, back to the Stone Age collapse.
Those five stages are, in order, (1) Financial Collapse; (2) Commercial Collapse; (3) Political Collapse; (4) Social Collapse, and finally, (5) Cultural Collapse.
Without taking too much time to restate history, we all pretty much know that the financial collapse is occurring as we speak, with the first hint and outward manifestation of financial collapse occurring in 2008 and continuing ever since. Here is what Orlov says about Stage 1, the Financial Collapse: “Faith in business as usual is lost. The future is no longer assumed to resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out and access to capital is lost.” [p.14].
At this point, I firmly believe that the financial collapse is ongoing just as described, and accelerating. Understand that the process of the ongoing deterioration of the system is a gradual marginal process, and that there is no definitive point in time when there is at one moment a blissful, peaceful feeling that everything is perfectly fine, and then at the next moment there is sudden chaos and anarchy with rioting in the streets and images of roving bands of thugs streaming across our televisions. Instead, the financial collapse will continue its progress marginally, inexorably, step-by-step until such time as there is a commercial collapse. This is a completely different viewpoint I had when I first came to tfmr. I initially felt that collapse was IMMINENT!! Grab the weapons, food, water and gold/silver, time to bug out!
Well, I was dead wrong. Stupidly so. But how could I have been so misguided? Was it gullibility? Madison Avenue marketing? Human nature normalcy bias?
Whatever. Only now, I see things in a different, more analytical light, thanks to Mr. Orlov’s writings. Make no mistake, though. It is crystal clear that the Financial Collapse is ongoing, right now, leading soon enough I believe, though gradually to Stage 2, Commercial Collapse.
Understand that Santa told everyone to get out of the financial system. Cyprus banks initiated the bail-in. The ground work has been laid out. It is all legal and all the details worked out. Plenty has been written about the pending stealing of funds on deposit at banks, retirement accounts, name it. Look at what is happening in Argentina. If those Argentinian bond holders are stiffed, then that supposedly valuable New York paper is not so valuable now, is it? All of this is coming to pass as predicted, and the signs are obvious to anyone who wants to look.
The fiat system is broken. Risk assessment is now based on predicting the words of the Fed bankster in charge, then front run on huge computers to shear the sheep of fractions of pennies. The worlds’ unregulated derivatives dwarf the world GDP. A small hiccup will destroy the entire scheme, overnight. We are there.
This leads us to Stage 2, the Commercial Collapse. Orlov says this: “Faith that the market shall provide is lost. Money is devalued and or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down in widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.” [p.14].
It sure does not look like this Stage yet to me, but it sure seems damn close, too. But, by looking closely, the Syrian situation is telegraphing the proximity of when this Stage will occur. Many, many commentators have weighed in about Syria, and how the whole military situation, the bombing, the invasion, the troops really point in one direction;
The US President, a laughing stock, says at one moment that Syria crossed a red line, but now tries to wiggle out from under his own words, like a hack criminal defense attorney arguing for leniency for his recidivist client. The Syrian distraction is just that, a ruse. The real reason, they say, is resources, namely, gas pipelines to feed the industrialized world in general, and to perpetuate the governing structures of some middle east countries. So does this not seem to point towards the imminent arrival of Stage 2? Soon enough we will know.
Believe what you want to believe, but the next Stage, Commercial Collapse, knowing it is upon us, preparing do deal with it and live through it, is damn important to survival of us regular folks that is for sure. It is also after this Stage that I believe that a concerted effort to become politically active and strive for limited government will have the biggest effects.
So, for now, I leave you with this Part I and invite comments, criticisms, and the like. Try to focus on Orlov’s definitions of the first two Stages.
Next week I will dig into Stages 3-5, and evaluate details as well as strategies for rising up and making a difference for Stage 3. I would not be doing all this analysis if I did not believe that there is a possibility for real reform during Stage 3. So, I am not totally a doomsday believer I once was, but things sure look grim, so don’t let up on the preparation effort that is for sure.

About the Author


Sep 7, 2013 - 3:30pm

Dismissing Conspiracy

as a possibility is dismissing what you know is truth. A couple of obvious examples. Gulf of Tonkin. Listen to what the sec of defense at that time said, Mcnamara. This is not guesswork or paranoia. It is historical fact. And that was the straw used to break the back and send us into a fruitless war, killing millions of Vietnamese, 58,000 Americans. This is all what we know. Other things we know. We never found WMD's in Iraq. We never connected Saddam to 9/11, Jessica Lynch was not the fabled Rambo that they made her out to be (she wrote a book about it). Pat Tillman was not shot by insurgents, but his own troops at around 50 yards (you can see clearly at that distance)....and took over a year to break the cover-up (read Where Men Win Glory) if you don't want to read... and last week John Kerry cited the picture from BBC as the display of hundreds of children that had been chemically killed in Syria....until the photographer of the picture called him on it, stating that this photo was taken 10 years ago in Iraq and it was a picture: Marco DiLauro was the photographer and you will find the picture on his webpage. It has been there for 10 years. Maybe Kerry knew. Maybe he is just a puppet. Someone knew. You know it is a lie. This is the truth. So, knowing that the media lies, the politicians lie, is it appropriate to dismiss folks as conspiracy theorists when they simply present an argument based on things outside the media political story? Conspiracy theorists are as likely to be revealing the truth as the media. It would be helpful to start discrediting " News" and those that report the news as "News Theorists" It sure as hell ain't the truth. You KNOW this. If any of us lied like this in court we would never be called as witness again, and all of our testimony would be discharged. And yet, we all keep listening to these liars. I would much rather listen to Alex Jones and at least stimulate my mind towards the truth than knowingly listen to Bill O'Rielly, or Anderson Cooper, KNOWING that they are deliberately steering me away from the truth. Wake up people. Follow your heart and your mind, not the BS that the MSM feeds you. The other issue is these conspiracies are conspiracies- in that more than one person was involved in creating the fabrication.....but that doesn't mean everyone involved was also knowledgeable about it. Lots of fools are useful tools. Get the environmentalists all wound up and they will kill people. Or how about the evangelicals....or this race or that race....pretty soon they are doing the heavy lifting for the puppeteers and the puppet has no idea why it is really doing what it is doing.....but that little voice inside does...listen to it. Would you send your kids to Syria to fight? Oh, I forgot, we'll just bomb them and then instruct them not to retaliate. riiiiiight. Could we see that news theorists pic again? Another lie or admission of incompetence was Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz vs the US Army pre-Iraq, early 2003. R&W contended that it would only take tens of thousands of troops and $50B to invade Iraq. The Army said it would take hundreds of thousands of troops (it did) they ran General Shinseki out of Washington...: The W regime was all neocon. We KNOW that they lied constantly. I gave you a few, just off the top of my head, above...that is not paranoia, but fact, documented. Now who are those neocons that fed us that BS? Oh...Weekly Standard founder and editor is the son of the Godfather of the neocon movement....this is fact. Irving Kristol: Bill Kristol is to neocons as you know who was to you know who in Nazi Germany. political propaganda. These people wrote PNAC. Read it. They specifically suggested in 1998 that it would take a new pearl harbor to convince ma and pa american to go to war in MENA..... quote: "Further, the process of transformation, even if it brings revolutionary change, is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event – like a new Pearl Harbor. that was written Kristol and his staff in September 2000: page 51 of I don't remember that group getting grilled post 9/11- If I said you somebody should kill your neighbor and they ended up dead I think the cops may grill you a bit..never happened.....oh, I forgot, they were the cops! (the neocons) isn't that strange? Now we are getting into theory....but the motivation is fact. This is all known fact. Syria will be limited? Sure, just like Iraq took only 10 thousand troops, cost $50B, and was over in months.... wake up. Quit following those insane "News Theorists" Follow your eyes, your brain, and your ability to think with unbiased criticality. There are so many lies, piled higher and higher, that it would be crazy to not consider that there is something MUCH more sinister afoot. Maybe they want WW3. Maybe they will use that as an excuse to reset everything, to dismiss the would be simple to blame it on an outside force and then kill the currency and all debts.... what frightens me, and this is paranoia, is I know that these people could give a shit about human life, American or otherwise. I know they use false flags as a matter of practice. Now don't you think that if they fail with there botched photo project in Syria that they will try something else? On American soil, just to be really convincing? Yes, that is theory. The neocons are crazy, committed, and they own the media. (one example would be Kristol owning WS. Be very cautious in believing that tin foil hat "news theory...."

Sep 7, 2013 - 3:16pm


One heck of a tale, and what you wrote jives really well with the picture of PPs I had in my mind, once you teased it into the forefront.

For my part, like many others, I have most likely felt the backlash of PP actions, but never without a fight. In other words, I believe I am very empathic, but also very defensive, so while trying to accomodate good people, I am always on the look-out for, and analyize any perceived mal intent towards myself and others. Successfully? Probably most of the time.

In the final analysis though...I really just don't know, but try to keep on the lookout.

Just being wary has its own costs, especially with trust. Do I sound confused? I usually am...LOL!

Sep 7, 2013 - 2:23pm

P-P's and ET's, more on Psychopaths

Bugszy, Treefrog, Zenpuppy, Mr Fix, Benque and all others who have chimed in on the sociopath/psychopath theme;

One facet of that topic that I am exploring is that psycho-paths (p-p’s), identify certain personalities as easy targets (ET’s), and so we find that these ET’s receive more than their fair share of experiences with P-P’s. We may as well own up to it – you know who you are. Empaths are certainly high on the list for plucking. In other words, having a p-p in your life is a prime indicator that you are seen as easy prey (Ouch~!), and one of the characteristics of p-p’s is that they can identify E-T’s from the crowd and then prey on them until they are bored – which occurs very rapidly. The ET then discovers that the p-p has planned the destruction of the relationship so well in advance that there is nothing left, no ‘catching-up’ in the ensuing fray. The only thing left is the baleful bleating and wailing by the ET. P-P’s plan well in advance. They often will plan an act of aggression/exploitation whose results may not materialize for 5 or ten years. And ALWAYS, they will be the very one saying, “Gee, who could have seen that coming?”

Treefrog, you mentioned ‘Bi-Polar’ as one of the over-lying disorders, which at this point I think is a misdiagnosis, as applied to PP’s. In the case of P-P’s there is ;

  1. The Act or the Front. This is a well-studied and carefully crafted act presented to the rest of mankind, and it is variable according to the specific audience. Chameleon like.
  2. The actual P-P person – devoid of all the typical characteristics of 96-99% of the population. Not one bit of the typical emotional basis. Throw out all your psych texts. Seriously, these are aliens walking amongst us.

So, I’m saying there is, and remains, only the One P-P, it is not a bi-polar personality. It is just that at certain times the ‘Front’ is too cumbersome or tedious to maintain, or perhaps they just don’t give-a-damn, temporarily. They know full well that when they later revert to the Front personality, all is forgotten, all is forgiven. You know – the make-up sex – isn’t it Great?

You see, these psychos are totally different - totally
as soon as you try to think about them - you are wrong. Sorry, you are wrong.
Why? Simply because all your thinking is based on logic and reality;
that is not where they live and operate from. I grew-up with a P-P. My older sister.
One of the wild things that I learned is that the P-P’s
completely and totally understand US (the 99%) – to an absolutely finite degree~!
Yup - read that again until it sinks-in.
They understand us BETTER than we understand ourselves
and that's why they are so masterful at manipulating us.
They use every emotion and motivation we have - against us~!
AND - this is most important - they are not encumbered one iota by emotion/empathy - none~!
They are actors who fake emotions very selectively in order to appeal to our emotions.
Another p-p actually told me that to my face. That’s another characteristic. They will tell you exactly what they are up to, and then go ahead and do it right in your face.

They especially like the “In-yur–face” acts, don’t they?
I guess I have been studying these psychos all my life.

And I must add that if you have had a classical psychology training (I did), based largely on Behaviorism, you are gonna have to totally forget all you were taught. It’s less than useless, it’s an encumbrance.

PP’s are born that way with all their characteristics built into the genes, or Spirit, if you like. My sister was that way from birth – literally.

Let me skip the early years for now and get right to her puberty. She was a good(!) looking blonde. She was screwing the town sheriff when she was 14 ½. P-P’s like to screw with each other especially if that screwing makes the other P-P your bitch – Got that? At 14 she made the town sheriff her bitch. Yup! That’s how she got a ‘free’ horse and boarding at his stables. When she got her first car at 16, she was pulled-over for speeding maybe a dozen times in our township and all the other local towns – she never got one ticket. She just told the cops to call back to the office and talk to their boss about who they had pulled-over. One time she saw the blinking red light while she was speeding and on her way to the stable/sheriff’s house. So, she just kept going and pulled into the driveway at the sheriff’s house, with the cop in tow. Then she got out and confronted the dumb-founded cop. The cops soon learned to not see that Lavender ’57 Bel Air doing 65 in a 35 zone.
I really need to get started on that book about sis..................................

Thank You ALL for the Great weekend discussions.

Sep 7, 2013 - 11:51am

@Rico re: astonishing statements . . .

Why do you have the need to take my words out of context? I did not make a prediction that in the next 6-12 months anything in particular will happen (though some things will, I fear). Here is what I said, in its full context:

"Daystar has opined that we can expect an EMP attack, or similar resulting attack, as part of our future. The taking down of the grid will not only destroy computing, but the modern world as well, in most places. We will then return to a pure, physical world. In 6-12 months, half or more of the population will be gone.

Of course, a nuclear war or false flag will obviate the need for an EMP. "

I was expounding on Daystar's opinion, as I understand it. If an EMP attack occurs, then I expect the population reductions to occur within 6-12 mos. from the attack. So, you don't need to hold your breath . . .

Sep 7, 2013 - 11:07am
Sep 7, 2013 - 10:37am

From ancientmoney:  "In 6-12

From ancientmoney: "In 6-12 months, half or more of the population will be gone."

That is a truly astonishing statement, and it will take just a relatively short period of time to establish the veracity of it, and the value of ancientmoney's ideas.

Be Prepared
Sep 7, 2013 - 9:08am
Sep 7, 2013 - 8:54am

Thanks Boatboy

I suppose your profession would expose you to more "exposed" sociopathic behaviour than just about any other. How on earth do you cope with it? Is this why police, judges, lawyers, etc can become so cynical and unfeeling (not all, of course)?

Sep 7, 2013 - 8:49am


Benque - I've recently read "The Sociopath Next Door" by Martha Stout, Ph.D., in which she claims 1 in 25 humans are sociopaths - 4%. This fact has been very helpful to me in explaining some of the bizarre behavior I've encountered in 40yrs of legal practice!

Sep 7, 2013 - 8:49am

This article shows that the bankers run the show . . .

It's been posted before, but it certainly rings true. In 2007, a U.S. high-ranking General (for got his name as I have a good memory--it's just short) said he got a memo erasing these same countries as part of the plan for the next 5 years for U.S. military:

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