Big Thinkers: Orlov's Book and Current Events - Part 1

Thu, Sep 5, 2013 - 12:47am
The Sky is Falling! Or is it?
Dmitry Orlov’s 2013 book “The Five Stages of Collapse – Survivors’ Toolkit” is required reading. I do not say that lightly. It is a must read; do not delay. It is here:
and there are reviews posted for those inclined. I am not doing a book review. I am trying to pin down a realistic time-line, and the markers of same, in order that we all can prepare accordingly. Nothing I have read to date is as well analyzed, or presented, so for that, I am in awe. But, naturally, I have my own thoughts as to the reality that all five stages of collapse actually occur. So, this is Part I. Part II will be next Wednesday, as it all should make more sense as the Syrian situation unfolds.
From the introduction of the book through the afterward, the book is mesmerizing both in its insightful analysis, and its use of examples. It is full of humor, too. While I quarrel with the constant references to global warming–I am not a believer in that theory at all–the book is simply astonishing for its clear, yet compelling, observations. Oh, did I mention that Mr. Orlov was born in Russia, having moved to the United States as a teenager? Or that Mr. Orlov is an engineer with skills in many fields including high energy physics research, e-commerce and Internet security? Or that Mr. Orlov traveled back and forth to Russia repeatedly to observe the Soviet collapse during the late 80s and mid 90s?
All of these facts cement his credentials for me, and makes this book such a compelling read. I find it extremely important that we examine Mr. Orlov’s prism through which he views the world, because he alone seems to have the unique insight to have synthesized a world view based on personal experience as well as his education and obvious intellect. One can quarrel with his conclusions, but they are based on solid facts and experiences completely foreign to me that is for sure. Hence, I absorbed the book in rapt fascination, and I now look at the world events with a nod to the possibilities that Orlov’s predictions are accurate.
Mr. Orlov was born in Russia during the Cold War era. It is fascinating to think that he then left Russia and moved to the United States, where he then got to play video games, listen to Western pop-culture music and watch Hollywood movies. Certainly he had a taste of hard living in Russia, compared to the easy life in the United States. This had to have played a huge influence upon young Orlov.
Then, as the communist experiment began its death spasms, Mr. Orlov’s family and friends and he himself were there to witness them all to include the collapse. Personally, I remember being in an airport in Alabama at the time watching CNN showing images of the Soviet Union collapse on the video monitor. It was unbelievable, shocking–I was a former soldier, inculcated to hate the evil empire, they were the enemy dammit!; yet, my plane still showed up and left on time and I got to my destination. No one seemed to mind, or notice, and life just went on.
So, it’s not like the collapse of the fiat system in general and perhaps the USA in particular will be any life altering universe changing occurrence, although it will probably feel like that to many who are directly, initially affected. No, what Mr. Orlov writes about is a steady progression of a decaying, deteriorating, behemoth of a system, which announces its deterioration in measurable, meaningful ways. It is no mystery, nor should it be.
Anything which by definition that is unsustainable will come to an end. There is no sane person presently arguing that the current fiat system is sustainable. So, the fiat system will end, and the question then becomes what will it look like when it does start to end? Can the eventual collapse be stopped mid stream, like a magic stick save? How will we know the collapse is upon us? If the collapse is gradual, then how long will it take? What should we expect, at any given point in time, then, along the collapse continuum?
Mr. Orlov provides all the tools to reach conclusions and answers for all of these questions in detail and with examples from history. He adroitly describes an orderly process marked by five discrete stages of collapse, not all of which necessarily must occur, but which stages will occur in progressive fashion should efforts not be made to stave off the final, ruinous, back to the Stone Age collapse.
Those five stages are, in order, (1) Financial Collapse; (2) Commercial Collapse; (3) Political Collapse; (4) Social Collapse, and finally, (5) Cultural Collapse.
Without taking too much time to restate history, we all pretty much know that the financial collapse is occurring as we speak, with the first hint and outward manifestation of financial collapse occurring in 2008 and continuing ever since. Here is what Orlov says about Stage 1, the Financial Collapse: “Faith in business as usual is lost. The future is no longer assumed to resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out and access to capital is lost.” [p.14].
At this point, I firmly believe that the financial collapse is ongoing just as described, and accelerating. Understand that the process of the ongoing deterioration of the system is a gradual marginal process, and that there is no definitive point in time when there is at one moment a blissful, peaceful feeling that everything is perfectly fine, and then at the next moment there is sudden chaos and anarchy with rioting in the streets and images of roving bands of thugs streaming across our televisions. Instead, the financial collapse will continue its progress marginally, inexorably, step-by-step until such time as there is a commercial collapse. This is a completely different viewpoint I had when I first came to tfmr. I initially felt that collapse was IMMINENT!! Grab the weapons, food, water and gold/silver, time to bug out!
Well, I was dead wrong. Stupidly so. But how could I have been so misguided? Was it gullibility? Madison Avenue marketing? Human nature normalcy bias?
Whatever. Only now, I see things in a different, more analytical light, thanks to Mr. Orlov’s writings. Make no mistake, though. It is crystal clear that the Financial Collapse is ongoing, right now, leading soon enough I believe, though gradually to Stage 2, Commercial Collapse.
Understand that Santa told everyone to get out of the financial system. Cyprus banks initiated the bail-in. The ground work has been laid out. It is all legal and all the details worked out. Plenty has been written about the pending stealing of funds on deposit at banks, retirement accounts, name it. Look at what is happening in Argentina. If those Argentinian bond holders are stiffed, then that supposedly valuable New York paper is not so valuable now, is it? All of this is coming to pass as predicted, and the signs are obvious to anyone who wants to look.
The fiat system is broken. Risk assessment is now based on predicting the words of the Fed bankster in charge, then front run on huge computers to shear the sheep of fractions of pennies. The worlds’ unregulated derivatives dwarf the world GDP. A small hiccup will destroy the entire scheme, overnight. We are there.
This leads us to Stage 2, the Commercial Collapse. Orlov says this: “Faith that the market shall provide is lost. Money is devalued and or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down in widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.” [p.14].
It sure does not look like this Stage yet to me, but it sure seems damn close, too. But, by looking closely, the Syrian situation is telegraphing the proximity of when this Stage will occur. Many, many commentators have weighed in about Syria, and how the whole military situation, the bombing, the invasion, the troops really point in one direction;
The US President, a laughing stock, says at one moment that Syria crossed a red line, but now tries to wiggle out from under his own words, like a hack criminal defense attorney arguing for leniency for his recidivist client. The Syrian distraction is just that, a ruse. The real reason, they say, is resources, namely, gas pipelines to feed the industrialized world in general, and to perpetuate the governing structures of some middle east countries. So does this not seem to point towards the imminent arrival of Stage 2? Soon enough we will know.
Believe what you want to believe, but the next Stage, Commercial Collapse, knowing it is upon us, preparing do deal with it and live through it, is damn important to survival of us regular folks that is for sure. It is also after this Stage that I believe that a concerted effort to become politically active and strive for limited government will have the biggest effects.
So, for now, I leave you with this Part I and invite comments, criticisms, and the like. Try to focus on Orlov’s definitions of the first two Stages.
Next week I will dig into Stages 3-5, and evaluate details as well as strategies for rising up and making a difference for Stage 3. I would not be doing all this analysis if I did not believe that there is a possibility for real reform during Stage 3. So, I am not totally a doomsday believer I once was, but things sure look grim, so don’t let up on the preparation effort that is for sure.

About the Author


Sep 8, 2013 - 10:35am

Mr Fix and Reality Biter

Thank you for your posts. They resonate your truths, and they are greatly appreciated.

Sep 8, 2013 - 9:45am
Sep 8, 2013 - 9:37am

RE: Some Answers

Mr. Fix wrote:

What I am saying is that the system is intentionally being undermined and steered towards a certain collapse, and as quickly as possible to boot. The exits are being closed, and this collapse is being engineered to create as much hardship as possible, for as many people as possible.

If you look at Albert Pike's three wars from 1871, this third world war makes perfect sense. The major global leaders are purposely taking action to set up this third war. In 1871 Pike said the third war would be between Jews and Arabs and then extend on a broader scope to encompass a conflict between nihilists (atheists/communists/fascists) and Christians. So, it looks like we have exactly that shaping up. Since such a thing could hardly be foreseen 150 years before it just accidently exactly happened, it has to have been a plan. We should not be surprised to see the global leaders implementing it, when the global leaders are the ones that conceived it. They are simply carrying out the plan, even though it means shooting at each other, because they want to induce enough chaos such that they can end up owning everything. The Bible and the Sibyls say they will succeed, except that God carves out His niche and saves a remnant from total global domination by the elitists. The globalists know what is coming and can position themselves to survive. Lindsey Williams says the many of the elitists he knew have built places in Alaska, because they know how bad it is going to get here. The trick is to stay alive through the crash and the war and be part of God's niche when the smoke clears.


gold slut
Sep 8, 2013 - 7:14am

@ Dyna Mo

Laws only apply to little people (serfs)!

Dyna mo hum
Sep 8, 2013 - 2:07am
SamSchleppsMr. Fix
Sep 7, 2013 - 10:38pm

Grist for the Mill

Sorry if this link was already posted, but it sure lays out some downside in the USA intervening in Syria. Mr. Fix, if its communicated like this then the USA should be able to see it a mile away and yet they poke away - grist for your mill. They are begging for a Russia / Iranian response and setting themselves up to be whacked - "they" the Obama led USA

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Mr. Fix
Sep 7, 2013 - 9:16pm

Xty, At least we agree on a few things,

But you will have to admit, I am more consistent in my views then inconsistent.

As of yet, there has been no appreciable rise in the price of gold and silver despite all the experts repeatedly pronouncing that it will go up substantially in the near future, and this has been going on for well over a year.

Also, as of yet, president Barack Obama has consistently worked to undermine the United States both domestically and globally. When I say that every decision he makes has been carefully considered to have the worst possible consequences for the United States, he has not done anything to dissuade anyone with that particular point of view.

As for timing, I will concede that I don't know what the exact outcome he has intended, but I'm working from the premise that he will do as much damage as he can for as long as he can, and you will know for certain that I was correct before the end of his term.

Did you listen to the interview?

There's an awful lot of facts there, and I didn't hear any of them being disputed.

As I put in the above post, discussing other people's motives can be tricky, ultimately we won't know.

I do stand by my assertion, but unless you have really gotten to know a true psychopath, it is hard for the average person to comprehend how anyone could derive sheer pleasure by creating misery and others.

Most people simply aren't wired that way.

I did state before, that I am not 100% sure of what Barack Obama's motives are, that is between him and his maker.

The video does clearly explain exactly what the plan he has been working is, and exactly how he got into the position is in, and it is quite consistent with everything I have been saying for quite some time now.

If you're still in doubt, at least give the first 5 min. a try, just hearing somebody else speak clearly the exact same things I've been saying for the past few years will probably feel different for you than it did for me, and it will be easy for you to dismiss her as another whack job, but her points are well researched, and I find them valid.

Mr. Fix
Sep 7, 2013 - 8:31pm

realitybiter: Thank you for your help, and some answers.

Excellent post!

Thank you for shining a lot of light on a lot of lies. Sometimes, trying to discuss what's really going on, can be difficult, especially with somebody that still believes what they see on the news.

I think a lot of people are realizing that the news is probably not what is being reported, just what they want you to think.

That's the first step, but after that, it becomes a crapshoot, because the truth can quickly become stranger than fiction, I try to evaluate multiple sides of any argument, and in the end, decide which one has the most pieces that actually fit.

Here's where I'm at:

The economic collapse that we were talking about on this thread, is not part of a natural cycle,

granted, given enough time the system would collapse under its own weight. I am not arguing that.

What I am saying is that the system is intentionally being undermined and steered towards a certain collapse, and as quickly as possible to boot. The exits are being closed, and this collapse is being engineered to create as much hardship as possible, for as many people as possible.

The motivation becomes a little bit trickier to discern, because it is apparent that there are multiple conflicting interests involved, and I suspect that they will agree to a point, until they disagree.

With a threat of thermonuclear war, I suspect we have at least gotten to the point where there is more than a little bit of trivial disagreement.

Has some of you will note, the things that I've been saying about our Commander-in-Chief, for the past couple years are be coming to self evident to ignore. This leads to motivation, something that I had only left to speculation.

Yes, I speculate a lot. With an absence of hard evidence, trying to discern what another individual's motives are, speculation becomes a useful tool, although I will concede that no one actually knows what's going on inside someone else's head, we can just look at their actions, and try to draw some conclusions, based on our own knowledge of the situation.

Last night, I was having a little bit of fun letting my mind wander as to where this could be going and why.

I did say that I felt that president Obama was on a Jihad, he is a man on a mission, and I absolutely refuse to assign stupidity to explain his actions. Even a monkey with a dart board would get it right occasionally,

but to be wrong every single time? That takes intent, and a strategy.

By sheer coincidence, and I mean that in that I was not looking for it, I came up with the video that I posted at about 2 AM yesterday morning, it explains in detail how Barack Obama is an agent for Saudi Arabia, literally installed in power through the same means in the work of fiction entitled the Manchurian candidate.

It was even pointed out in the interview that every single action Obama takes has been carefully designed to have the worst possible outcome for the United States. I jumped when I heard it, because I've never heard anyone else say that before.

The 45 min. explanation covers a lot of ground, and I am satisfied that it explains more about what we are dealing with today than any other conspiracy theory I have read in the last five years.

Simply stated, this one adds up.

I apologize to all of you for occasionally coming up with a theory, that later on turns out to have holes in it,

there are so many different pieces to the puzzle, and I do not have all the facts, so I tend to fill them in with a wild guess that seems plausible at the time.

There is more than enough circumstantial and actual evidence in existence today to build a pretty convincing case that Barack Obama is in fact a foreign agent, working for interests that do not even consider what the American public wants. There is no evidence to the contrary.

There is plenty of evidence that Barack Obama is not even an American citizen, and that his past has either been buried or fabricated, there is virtually no evidence to support a counter argument.

Yes, I know I come down hard on this man far more than should be considered appropriate on a precious metals site, but when you consider that the entire government has been captured by criminals, and then want to consider why fundamentals don't mean anything anymore in the price of gold and silver, so you start looking at the criminals behind the scenes, and lo and behold, you would invariably wind up all the way at the top.

I really just try to take this where the evidence leads, I don't really care if my conclusions seem outrageous,

I only care if they're plausible, because the line of crap we are being fed in the press is not plausible.

I only offer my thoughts on this particular thread about the subject matter above because I think it's relevant.

If the United States is being systematically destroyed by a criminal at the very top, then to say that he intends to finish the job before he leaves office is not all that much of a stretch.

Sep 7, 2013 - 7:31pm


I don't think we share enough common perspective to have a productive discussion.

Probably best if any dialog between the two of us sticks to gold and silver. I'll do my part.


Sep 7, 2013 - 7:07pm

@ Thorus - -

I don't mean to offend you or anyone by showing disrespect for religion. Religion has a long history of persecution of anyone who doesn't tow the line. Rule by fear has historically worked well to subdue the masses into not questioning the morality of these people. In my country people are starting to wake up to the extent of the damage that has been done to innocent children by these monsters. Perhaps if more people had the audacity to question these power structures and not be afraid to ridicule them, we would have a lot less sexually abused children whose lives are a living nightmare.

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Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods