Big Thinkers: Orlov's Book and Current Events - Part 1

352
Thu, Sep 5, 2013 - 12:47am
The Sky is Falling! Or is it?
Dmitry Orlov’s 2013 book “The Five Stages of Collapse – Survivors’ Toolkit” is required reading. I do not say that lightly. It is a must read; do not delay. It is here:
and there are reviews posted for those inclined. I am not doing a book review. I am trying to pin down a realistic time-line, and the markers of same, in order that we all can prepare accordingly. Nothing I have read to date is as well analyzed, or presented, so for that, I am in awe. But, naturally, I have my own thoughts as to the reality that all five stages of collapse actually occur. So, this is Part I. Part II will be next Wednesday, as it all should make more sense as the Syrian situation unfolds.
From the introduction of the book through the afterward, the book is mesmerizing both in its insightful analysis, and its use of examples. It is full of humor, too. While I quarrel with the constant references to global warming–I am not a believer in that theory at all–the book is simply astonishing for its clear, yet compelling, observations. Oh, did I mention that Mr. Orlov was born in Russia, having moved to the United States as a teenager? Or that Mr. Orlov is an engineer with skills in many fields including high energy physics research, e-commerce and Internet security? Or that Mr. Orlov traveled back and forth to Russia repeatedly to observe the Soviet collapse during the late 80s and mid 90s?
All of these facts cement his credentials for me, and makes this book such a compelling read. I find it extremely important that we examine Mr. Orlov’s prism through which he views the world, because he alone seems to have the unique insight to have synthesized a world view based on personal experience as well as his education and obvious intellect. One can quarrel with his conclusions, but they are based on solid facts and experiences completely foreign to me that is for sure. Hence, I absorbed the book in rapt fascination, and I now look at the world events with a nod to the possibilities that Orlov’s predictions are accurate.
Mr. Orlov was born in Russia during the Cold War era. It is fascinating to think that he then left Russia and moved to the United States, where he then got to play video games, listen to Western pop-culture music and watch Hollywood movies. Certainly he had a taste of hard living in Russia, compared to the easy life in the United States. This had to have played a huge influence upon young Orlov.
Then, as the communist experiment began its death spasms, Mr. Orlov’s family and friends and he himself were there to witness them all to include the collapse. Personally, I remember being in an airport in Alabama at the time watching CNN showing images of the Soviet Union collapse on the video monitor. It was unbelievable, shocking–I was a former soldier, inculcated to hate the evil empire, they were the enemy dammit!; yet, my plane still showed up and left on time and I got to my destination. No one seemed to mind, or notice, and life just went on.
So, it’s not like the collapse of the fiat system in general and perhaps the USA in particular will be any life altering universe changing occurrence, although it will probably feel like that to many who are directly, initially affected. No, what Mr. Orlov writes about is a steady progression of a decaying, deteriorating, behemoth of a system, which announces its deterioration in measurable, meaningful ways. It is no mystery, nor should it be.
Anything which by definition that is unsustainable will come to an end. There is no sane person presently arguing that the current fiat system is sustainable. So, the fiat system will end, and the question then becomes what will it look like when it does start to end? Can the eventual collapse be stopped mid stream, like a magic stick save? How will we know the collapse is upon us? If the collapse is gradual, then how long will it take? What should we expect, at any given point in time, then, along the collapse continuum?
Mr. Orlov provides all the tools to reach conclusions and answers for all of these questions in detail and with examples from history. He adroitly describes an orderly process marked by five discrete stages of collapse, not all of which necessarily must occur, but which stages will occur in progressive fashion should efforts not be made to stave off the final, ruinous, back to the Stone Age collapse.
Those five stages are, in order, (1) Financial Collapse; (2) Commercial Collapse; (3) Political Collapse; (4) Social Collapse, and finally, (5) Cultural Collapse.
Without taking too much time to restate history, we all pretty much know that the financial collapse is occurring as we speak, with the first hint and outward manifestation of financial collapse occurring in 2008 and continuing ever since. Here is what Orlov says about Stage 1, the Financial Collapse: “Faith in business as usual is lost. The future is no longer assumed to resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out and access to capital is lost.” [p.14].
At this point, I firmly believe that the financial collapse is ongoing just as described, and accelerating. Understand that the process of the ongoing deterioration of the system is a gradual marginal process, and that there is no definitive point in time when there is at one moment a blissful, peaceful feeling that everything is perfectly fine, and then at the next moment there is sudden chaos and anarchy with rioting in the streets and images of roving bands of thugs streaming across our televisions. Instead, the financial collapse will continue its progress marginally, inexorably, step-by-step until such time as there is a commercial collapse. This is a completely different viewpoint I had when I first came to tfmr. I initially felt that collapse was IMMINENT!! Grab the weapons, food, water and gold/silver, time to bug out!
Well, I was dead wrong. Stupidly so. But how could I have been so misguided? Was it gullibility? Madison Avenue marketing? Human nature normalcy bias?
Whatever. Only now, I see things in a different, more analytical light, thanks to Mr. Orlov’s writings. Make no mistake, though. It is crystal clear that the Financial Collapse is ongoing, right now, leading soon enough I believe, though gradually to Stage 2, Commercial Collapse.
Understand that Santa told everyone to get out of the financial system. Cyprus banks initiated the bail-in. The ground work has been laid out. It is all legal and all the details worked out. Plenty has been written about the pending stealing of funds on deposit at banks, retirement accounts, name it. Look at what is happening in Argentina. If those Argentinian bond holders are stiffed, then that supposedly valuable New York paper is not so valuable now, is it? All of this is coming to pass as predicted, and the signs are obvious to anyone who wants to look.
The fiat system is broken. Risk assessment is now based on predicting the words of the Fed bankster in charge, then front run on huge computers to shear the sheep of fractions of pennies. The worlds’ unregulated derivatives dwarf the world GDP. A small hiccup will destroy the entire scheme, overnight. We are there.
This leads us to Stage 2, the Commercial Collapse. Orlov says this: “Faith that the market shall provide is lost. Money is devalued and or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down in widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.” [p.14].
It sure does not look like this Stage yet to me, but it sure seems damn close, too. But, by looking closely, the Syrian situation is telegraphing the proximity of when this Stage will occur. Many, many commentators have weighed in about Syria, and how the whole military situation, the bombing, the invasion, the troops really point in one direction;
The US President, a laughing stock, says at one moment that Syria crossed a red line, but now tries to wiggle out from under his own words, like a hack criminal defense attorney arguing for leniency for his recidivist client. The Syrian distraction is just that, a ruse. The real reason, they say, is resources, namely, gas pipelines to feed the industrialized world in general, and to perpetuate the governing structures of some middle east countries. So does this not seem to point towards the imminent arrival of Stage 2? Soon enough we will know.
Believe what you want to believe, but the next Stage, Commercial Collapse, knowing it is upon us, preparing do deal with it and live through it, is damn important to survival of us regular folks that is for sure. It is also after this Stage that I believe that a concerted effort to become politically active and strive for limited government will have the biggest effects.
So, for now, I leave you with this Part I and invite comments, criticisms, and the like. Try to focus on Orlov’s definitions of the first two Stages.
Next week I will dig into Stages 3-5, and evaluate details as well as strategies for rising up and making a difference for Stage 3. I would not be doing all this analysis if I did not believe that there is a possibility for real reform during Stage 3. So, I am not totally a doomsday believer I once was, but things sure look grim, so don’t let up on the preparation effort that is for sure.

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SilverSurfers
Sep 11, 2013 - 9:47am

As a Parent

One boy kicks a signs, falls on another, scalp bleeds, and off to the hospital quick, but doctor was preoccupied with HOW IT HAPPENED, than the injury, ready to inform the state.

Pet chicken pecks one boy in the eyes, no damage, but the doctor order me to get rid of the chicken or he is calling social services.

On boy cusses out a teacher and got spanked for it, next day, the teachers call the police, because the child got a rear end paddling.

Social services is going tell parents how to parent, as they screw up more and more young lives.

California says that children can pick which bath room they want.

High school boys are allowed to wear makeup with metalized faces.

Teachers teach that billy and bobby can live happily ever after together.

Teachers ask for address, phone, parent name, but step over the line asking for child's mental state, to enable totalitarian intrusion into private lives.

Speak your mind in California, and you are likely to end up in a mental ward.

Its becoming a police state in California, state spies are every where, parenting by parents be damn, the state knows better.

The Liberals know better.

Screw em all, I will do my best to protect my children from the state.

===

The Big One? Birthers? Obama is not resigning, unless something else big.

Dyna mo hum
Sep 8, 2013 - 8:52pm

We might have to agree to disagree Mr. Fix

"what do you think could possibly motivate a man like this to resign"? More scandals more lies from his administration and of course "the big one" that has not hit yet. I don't think zero can run out the clock.

Mr. Fix
Sep 8, 2013 - 8:01pm

Dyna mo hum:

All of the reasons that you cite as to why Pres. Obama would resign, overlook one particularly pertinent point.

If president Obama's goals were to build a better America, then resignation would be a viable outcome, since he would perceive himself as an unmitigated failure.

However,

Since Pres. Barack Obama is on a mission to destroy the United States, and destroy every known alliance internationally, in his own mind, and in the minds of the people who closely work around him, he has had an incredibly successful presidency, nearly all of the goals that he has set out to achieve have been accomplished. (I only said nearly all of the goals, because he's about to get even more outrageous then he has ever been before).

Within his own inner circle, There is nothing but happiness and a sense of accomplishment.

Why would he ever want to redesign in the mists of that?

Now I'll grant you, he's pissing off a lot of people, but that is also by design, and he only sees it as an accomplishment.

Anybody that could force Obama to resign, has already been either killed or paid off. He is completely surrounded by traitors to the United States, there will be no dissension amongst his ranks.

So what do you think could possibly motivate a man like this to resign?

Dyna mo hum
Sep 8, 2013 - 7:48pm
Bollocks
Sep 8, 2013 - 7:28pm

Tres late to this party, but after reading the comments..

I just ordered this book. Thanks CAL . I look forward to reading it.

Dyna mo hum
Sep 8, 2013 - 6:15pm

I think Barry will resign sooner than later

Hey that's a challenge. He is quietly losing his faithful base. The black congressional caucus has been told to stand down and so far they have but look for that to change soon. Not that the black caucus is relevant but I used them as an example. Barry has presided over one train wreck after another now for months on end. I think the WH advisors he has are in total disarray. Conspiracy theory's aside he appears to have made a complete ass of his attempts at any kind of international and economic policy not to mention what the military folks think of his blunders. Just stand back and think about what a mess he is in.. Some may agree with my assertions some may not. The question is how much ridicule can he stand daily? BTW get to know this guy. >>>>>

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Mr. Fix
Sep 8, 2013 - 4:45pm

@ Dyna mo hum

Pres. Obama is already provably guilty of assisting Al Qaeda, and the Muslim Brotherhood whose charter states that they are dedicated to the destruction of the United States.

If anyone was going to bring him up on charges for aiding and abetting the enemy, they already would have.

Obama is not going anywhere.

Urban Roman
Sep 8, 2013 - 4:33pm

@Dyna mo,

It's Bush's faullt, and you're a racist.

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