Dog's Gulch

129
Tue, Sep 3, 2013 - 8:32am

The following is a cooperative effort by yours truly, and fellow Turdite Gold Dog- we hope you find it worthwhile and add your comments and thoughts!

Timeline/Scenario:

October 2013: With oil prices averaging $133/barrel (WTI, light sweet crude), high energy prices initiate a worldwide economic slowdown, portrayed by the financial press as “a pause in the global recovery”. Following a month-long pullback to 1603, on Wednesday, October 16th the S&P 500 opens limit down and trading is halted. The exchange goes limit-down on seven of the following thirteen trading days, and despite “extraordinary measures” taken by the Fed and the US Government to backstop the markets, by the first week in December the S&P sits at 784. The market wealth of investors has been halved in just over six weeks.

June 2014: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa announce the BRICS Development Bank Trade Settlement System. Each nation’s currency can be converted to the “unit credits” currency measure (quickly named “the Bricky” by the western financial press) offering direct convertibility to each country’s currency at a pre-determined level based on backing by gold and other commodities. China announces national gold reserves of 9,000 tons, Russia 7,500. Within three months, more than two dozen more nations worldwide sign agreements to conduct trade using the units credits system. When Saudi Arabia announces oil and natural gas sales to China denominated in the “unit credit” system, the Dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency, and the USD price of crude spikes to $268/ barrel.

May 2015: Public outcry over drastically rising food prices spurs the passage of H.R. 5722, the nationalization of all US railways, in order "to facilitate cheap transportation and economic recovery”. The US Department of Agriculture announces a nationwide farm licensing program, whereby all farmers must meet certain criteria for certification on a yearly basis, including proof of sales of staple crops at pre-determined prices. As these prices are at or below the cost of production given the rising price of gasoline, many farmers are faced with the choice of going bankrupt or selling their farms. The resulting foreclosure sales make three large New York banks and two private equity firms the five largest landowners in the US.

July, 2016: With black market sales of food estimated to be at 40% of total sales nationwide, inflation goes parabolic and the US Dollar heads rapidly towards its intrinsic value. A barter economy is increasingly running parallel to the official economy. What had been a trickle of people leaving urban areas for rural areas becomes a deluge as sporadic food riots become an unremarkable event. The mass exodus from the cities later becomes known as the “summer migration”, and some urban and suburban areas see a 40% depopulation from pre-crisis levels. The national guard of all 50 states is permanently placed under the direction of the Department of Homeland Security, as martial law is invoked nationwide. Nobody knows what is going to happen next.

NOW… it’s September of 2013 again, present day. To paraphrase the great Keanu Reeves in Speed; “Pop quiz, hotshot: You have three years to prepare for incipient hyperinflation and widespread societal instability. You know you can’t go it alone and your job is to come up with the ideal location, community makeup, system of local governance, and security preparations to deal with this situation. What do you do?”

Good question. In the comments of my last blogpost, our friend Gold Dog had some outstanding contributions, and I approached him about co-writing this post- he graciously agreed! So without further ado, here’s what our friend Gold Dog had to say on the subject:

Location: I think we would all agree that distance from large metros, 100% reliable water, (drinking and irrigation), good land, and low interference from local authorities are key. My own preference would to be within reasonable distance from a smallish city of 80 or 100 thousand so that construction materials and medical care would be available pre-disaster. The "end of the road" on a smaller community might be helpful if we could tap into city services. Expected Code of Conduct including Fair Dinkum trading with all members is high on my list. If you are having a piss poor day and there is nothing anyone can do to help you out right now, keep it to yourself. The "Bitching Stick" comes out Thursday nights so we can clear the air before the big weekend dance!

General Preparedness: It would be a good idea to assemble all of the basic stuff that you can find on any of the thousand lists out there and from time to time I add to the pile of T.P., paper towels, garbage bags, etc. as the mood hits me. For example, if the shelf life on the sprouting seeds is long enough I will grab some today. The two main things that concern me about this are mobility and preserving wealth after the reset. On mobility, I currently have a couple of locations that we can run to and enough SUV capacity to bring the majority of our stuff along with us, provided that travel is allowed. If not, our neighborhood is a good one and most of us get it. As part of that plan I have enough seeds to start food production and enough chow to get us through until the food production starts to pay off. We have been giving a lot of thought to getting to somewhere that currently exists on a subsistence basis, the idea being that the people there are already geared to the lifestyle and we can insert ourselves in a low key way and trade for our daily needs. They already know how to get by on the bare minimum. PM's figure in the mix. My instinct is to go 50% cash and 50% tangibles....I would appreciate input on this from my fellow Turdites!

Group Governance: As far as I can tell there have been three predominant types of small group or tribal Governance;

1- Strong man style....I am in charge or I am gonna kill you or at least kick your ass and have my way with your wimmin.

2- Hereditary/consensus....The son of the chief becomes the new chief. Much of this is conceded to because dad has passed on his knowledge to his son and this wisdom is usually vital to the tribes survival. Move or stay? Plant or hunt? It seems that if the son is a dolt a strong advisor(s) will emerge and the tribe will hope that the grandson is more like gramps.

3- A newer and now more prevalent style seen in many native cultures, I think literacy has a big effect on this, is some form of democracy with a "town council" elected for some number of years. Looking at what's up with the Eskimos and the Indians here in North America they seem to, for the most part, want a direct vote or referendum on the big stuff.

Tribal people derived their customs over many generations, and these usually are for the benefit of the organism as a whole. Newer, more literate groups will use a base document; for example, the US Constitution

So now it’s up to you, Turdville: Again, figure you have three years to prepare for incipient hyperinflation and widespread societal instability. You know you can’t go it alone and your job is to come up with the ideal location, community makeup, system of local governance, and security preparations to deal with this situation. What do you do? Let's say, hypothetically, that we found a place for Turdites to form a community that would be self sustaining and self protecting:

- Where would this place be and what would this place look like?

-What would be the primary goals informing such a community- what would you be trying to accomplish?

-What would the governing body be comprised of and how would it be selected?

- Could we be self-sustaining and how would we go about 1. Having people make their homes on-site and doing the work there now, vs. 2. Members for whom this would be a retreat but would not be living there?

-What would the maximum population be and what would be rules for bringing in new members/family members?

- How could we expel anti-social members? (Cal Lawyer?)

- In the big picture, can something like this work?

Feel free to share your thoughts on any of these questions individually, or tackle the whole thing if you feel like it. Remember, there are many ways to go about something like this and what works for someone else may not work for you, so keep an open mind regarding different approaches, and have at it!

Your friends, Gold Dog and Pining

About the Author

  129 Comments

silver66
Sep 3, 2013 - 8:51am

Second

and I read the article

Silver66

hans007
Sep 3, 2013 - 8:52am

ithink the timeline is a bit

ithink the timeline is a bit too short, but basically agree this is what is going to happen. lets say 10 years and im a believer

Howard Roark
Sep 3, 2013 - 9:04am

Third?

Read the post and comments. Religion? Well that´s a personal choice right? Or DGulch is going to be a religious sect camp? Salut, HR

dgstage
Sep 3, 2013 - 9:04am

Thanks Pining and GD

Interesting

God and Christ, not religion, would have to be part of the plan.

Mantis
Sep 3, 2013 - 9:10am

questins. .

Very thought provoking.. pondering some questions now

would you be looking to be self sufficient in energy, invest in solar panels or a windmill or something?

how about internet access? are you assuming a life offline?

what about other countries? will this fate be more or less specific to the USA ?

ag1969
Sep 3, 2013 - 9:22am

I don't think we should expel Cal Lawyer....

...before we even get started. He seems like a decent chap. Do we just have a blanket policy that no lawyers are allowed? LMAO

6th Amendment

In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the State and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor, and to have the Assistance of Counsel for his defence.

Sep 3, 2013 - 9:24am

Just to be clear

We envisioned this as a theoretical exercise, where people described their own answers to these questions- so if your ideal would be religious-based, explain how that would work. If you would want off-grid, how would you do it?

There are no 'correct' answers from our perspective, And I would assume that many models could work.

tyberious
Sep 3, 2013 - 9:35am

10 years

Not even! That timeline seems about right provided that we dont enter WWIII! If hostilities increase in the ME, China, Russia or any of the BRIICS could dump UST, or at the G20 announce their new trade settlement, pushing up the timeline. I hope we have 2-3 years but that's only hope.

tyberious
Sep 3, 2013 - 9:39am
wouldyoubelieve...
Sep 3, 2013 - 10:03am

1st person

to even mention setting up a central bank is executed summarily, convicted by that statement alone, and any further mention of such idea or person is met with a likewise punishment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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