More Evidence That JPM Has Cornered Comex Gold

468
Sat, Aug 31, 2013 - 11:36am

If I can bring all of this together, it will go a long way toward proving correct Ted Butler's theory on JPM's current corner of the Comex gold futures market.

So, let's start with Uncle Ted and his assertions. Recall that Ted is a first-rate analyst who has been trading commodities for about 40 years. He has paid particular interest to the silver manipulation for the past 20. He writes an excellent newsletter to which you can subscribe by clicking here: https://www.butlerresearch.com

Using the CFTC-issued weekly and monthly data (Commitment of Traders & Bank Participation Report), Ted has followed along over the past eight months of position changes and, over that time, the changes have been dramatic. As you know, The Bullion Banks were caught heavily short at the initiation of QE∞ last autumn. I contend that this entire manufactured correction scheme was initiated by The Bullion Banks to give them an opportunity to get out from under their naked short positions and move net long. Ted has concluded that it's not the Bullion Banks per se. Instead, the scheme was initiated by JPM solely for the benefit of JPMand, from a net short gold position in excess of 50,000 contracts last December, JPM has now transitioned into a net long gold position of more than 65,000 contracts. IF THIS IS TRUE, there can be absolutely no doubt as to:

  • The motive behind the counter-intuitive price correction AND
  • The certainty of a very large and significant UP move for gold in the very near future.
  • I did not set out to prove or disprove Ted's assertions. After following the Comex gold and silver deliveries these past 60 days, simple curiosity led me to do some research on recent delivery patterns. What I found not only piqued my interest, I think it proves Ted correct. And again, IF TED IS CORRECT, then there is most certainly a very big move coming in gold.

    So, let's start here: After taking into their house account (again, this means stopping the metal to themselves, into their own, proprietary account) 280 of 3,922 Dec12 silver deliveries, 970 of 2,526 March13 silver deliveries, a big fat zero of 3,416 May13 silver deliveries, JPM stopped to themselves 2,824 of the 3,444 July13 silver deliveries. That's 82%. For obvious reasons, this anomaly got my attention.

    As I've been chronicling here all month, this trend continued into the August13 gold delivery period. Last Thursday alone, the final day of August deliveries, the JPM house account took down 154 of the 164 Aug13 gold deliveries. This brings their monthly total to 3,151 of the 4,075 contracts delivered. That's 77.3%! What's more, after the initial surge of 1,962 deliveries on the 1st and 2nd of the month, the JPM house account claimed for itself 1,945 of the 2,113 remaining deliveries. That's 92%!

    With this as inspiration, I went back and reviewed the previous delivery months for gold on The Comex. These delivery months in 2013 have been February, April, June and now August. What I found is startling.

    Let's start with February. Before we begin, recall that for every buyer, there is a seller...and...for every person or entity taking delivery, there is an issuer from whose vaults that metal will flow. Further, keep this in mind...If you have been naked shorting paper contracts all month, you stand the risk that the entity on the other side of your trade will stand for delivery. So, it follows that, when we see one firm taking consistently taking delivery and another firm consistently issuing the metal, we can deduce who has been shorting all along and who has been buying. Does that make sense? I hope so. If it doesn't. then please re-read that info before proceeding. It is critical that you understand this.

    OK, back to February. During that month, the Feb13 contract was in its delivery period. What initially caught everyone by surprise was the sheer volume of deliveries. After just 3,253 in Dec12, a month which is usually one of the biggest delivery months of the year, the delivery total for February surged to 13,070. Of that total, the DeutscheBank house account took 5,917 and the HSBC house account took 4,879. Between the two of them, they accounted for 82% of all Feb deliveries. And just whom was issuing this metal? JPMorgan. For the month, JPM issued 7,854 of the 13,070 delivery requests. That's 60%. Also getting in on the act was Scotia. They got clipped for the issuance of 3,644 contracts. That's 28%. So, the DB and HSBC house accounts took 82% of the deliveries while the JPM (house and customer) and Scotia house accounts supplied 88%. And don't forget, this was a lot of metal! Thirteen thousand and seventy Comex contracts is 1,307,000 troy ounces, which equates to 40.6 metric tonnes.

    Suddenly, the deliveries for March surged, too. Instead of the moribund 500 or so settlements that we typically see in this "non-delivery" month, March13 saw an incredible 4,229 made...more than last December! I'm quite certain that that has never happened before. So what happened? Why was the March total about 3,000 to 3,500 more than typical and expected? Keep reading...

    After getting clipped for 3,644 deliveries in February, Scotia immediately went on to warpath to get that gold back. For the month of March, the Scotia house account took in 3,383 deliveries while at the same time issuing 179. All totaled, Scotia net deliveries were 3,204 of the 4,229 deliveries for March. That's 76% and, if you take that away, you're left with just the typical 1,025 March deliveries. (Actually, it's not that typical. The Barclays customer account took 834 of the 1,025.) Oh, you're probably wondering which firm provided the metal for all those deliveries? JPM. For March, JPM issued 1,813 out of their house account and 2,209 out of their customer account. That's a total of 4,022 or 95% of all March deliveries.

    The next month is April and, once again, it's a delivery month. The surge in total deliveries continued as 11,632 contracts were delivered to eager buyers. Of those, HSBC was again the big winner with 3,954 deliveries into their house account. Scotia took 3,292 and Barclays got in on the act with 1,276. Between the three of them, these proprietary house accounts combined for 73% of all April13 gold deliveries. And who got stuck with the bill? DB paid out 992 and Scotia paid out 595. This left the balance with none other than JPM and they issued 9,690 contracts or 83%. 5,990 came out of JPM house and 3,700 came out of their customer accounts. Again and just for fun, 9,690 Comex settlements means that JPM had to ship out another 969,000 troy ounces or 30.1 metric tonnes.

    So now it's May and, remarkably, the trend of deliveries in traditional non-delivery months continues and, whaddayaknow, it's a near-repeat of March. Of the 3,050 total deliveries in May, the Scotia house account took 1,746 or 57%. And guess who provided the metal...again? JPM. This time they got stuck providing 97% of the metal or 2,948 of the 3,050 deliveries. What's more, they issued the vast majority of this out of their customer account, which was raided for 2,781 of the 2,948 contracts. Again, "customer" gold is metal held on deposit for JPM customers. This is registered and eligible gold and, as we've seen for years, JPM is able to shift it around wherever they see fit. (And who are JPM's "customers"? Well, wouldn't you like to know?...)

    Finally, this trend repeated one more time during the delivery month of June. For the month, 9,869 contracts were delivered. Once again, HSBC grabbed the lion's share, moving 4,935 (almost exactly half) of the deliveries directly into their house account. The Barclays house account took 2,000 and, for the first time since last December, the JPM house account claimed 547 or 5.5%. Issuing? You guessed it. JPM issued 7,425 or 75% while Barclays and DB added about 1,400.

    So, through adding all of this together we get this. For the 3 delivery months of Feb, Apr and June plus the traditional non-delivery months of March and May:

    HSBC House Account: 13,768 deliveries. Total issuance: One. Yes, you read that right. One.

    Scotia House Account: 8,932 deliveries. Total issuance: 4,259

    DeutscheBank House Account: 5,918 deliveries. Total issuance: 1,746

    Barclays House and Customer: 5,384 deliveries. Total issuance: 908

    JPM Customer: 1,444 deliveries. Total issuance: 16,758

    JPM House: 547 deliveries. Total issuance: 15,181

    OK, now before we go any further, I want you to take a second and review this excellent piece by Mark McHugh from back in April. Not only had he spotted this trend, he also goes on to explain how and why the deliveries out of the "customer" account should almost always match. There should not be a significant disparity. https://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress.com/2013/04/26/jamie-dimon-has-issu...

    Can you see what has transpired here?

    Desperate to cover and eliminate their 50,000 contract short position but not wanting to do so through the actual buying of futures contracts for fear of disrupting the building price collapse, JPM decided to eliminate most of the position by settling and closing the short contracts in physical metal, instead. They likely made this decision in the expectation of re-acquiring the metal in the near future at lower prices. So confident were they in this eventuality, they even used customer gold to settle more than half of these obligations.

    The month of June marked the bottom for the manufactured "correction" with price beginning the month at $1390 before trading down to a low of $1179 and closing out the month at $1224. Price has since continued to recover to a last of $1375.

    Not coincidentally, June was also when Uncle Ted first noticed the change of position for JPM and he reported it in early July after reviewing the Bank Participation Report changes from June. Ted got me all worked up so I did some of my own research and wrote about it here. (https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4824/amazing-cot-and-bpr-gold) The gist of it is this: After years of being net short, the U.S bullion banks were net long, so much so that on the July BPR, they were suddenly net long almost 45,000 Comex gold contracts! This trend then continued onto the August BPR (https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4929/reconciliation) which showed the four largest U.S. banks to be net long an astounding 59,473 contracts.

    It's important to note here that the BPR does not provide specifics. It simply aggregates the positions of the four largest U.S. bullion banks and the 20 largest non-U.S. bullion banks. So, it's impossible to say with certainty how the 59,473 contract net long position is divided. But consider this:

    On the BPR dated 2/5/13, the 4 U.S. banks had a combined net short position of 69,300 contracts. After five months of deliveries and a $500 price drop, the 4 banks had flipped to 59,473 contracts net long. Now, go back up and reconsider all of the delivery totals listed above. Can you connect the dots??? If not, I'll do it for you.

    JPMorgan decided late last year to rig the gold market lower in order to create the ideal conditions under which they could flip a 50,000 net short position to a sizeable net long position. Price, delivery notices and the CFTC-supplied reports document that they accomplished this feat by covering and delivering shorts while at the same time initiating and buying longs. They have no doubt been on the buy side of the record-setting Large Spec selling: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-22/they-better-pray-there-no-short-squeeze.

    And here is where it begins to come together...

    If this is the case, and JPM is now net long a massive amount of gold futures, we should expect a complete change in the recent delivery pattern on The Comex. Instead of JPM being the primary issuer, they should be the primary stopper. Additionally, instead of the other banks being the stoppers, they should now be the issuers, particularly the non-U.S. banks as the August BPR showed them to have a net short position in excess of 22,000 contracts.

    And what has happened this month? Exactly that! As stated above, of the 4,075 total contracts deliveries in August, and noting the huge dropoff from the volume of the three previous delivery months, 3,414 were stopped by JPM with 3,151 specifically designated for the JPM house account. And which firms have been issuing? Deutsche issued 1,116, Barclays has done 447 and Scotia accounted for 463. That's a total of 2026 or 49.7%. Note that all three are non-U.S. banks!

    To me, this proves that Ted is correct. Not only is JPM net long the entire 59,473 shown on the August BPR, their position is likely even higher, offset in the net total by a net short position held by the other three U.S. banks included in the report.

    And now...finally...here's the rub. The Big Kahuna. The Grand Finale. JPM is likely going to want back most, if not all, of the 3,193,900 ounces of gold that they delivered earlier this year. (16,758 customer + 15,181 house = 31,939 contracts = 3,193,900 troy ounces = 99.341 metric tonnes of gold) But the other banks aren't budging...at least not yet. There were only 4,075 total deliveries in August! And note that HSBC has taken delivery of 13,768 contracts so far in 2013 while delivering just ONE. And who is HSBC??? Yes, they're an English company but what do the "H" and "S" stand for? Do you really think that they are going to be in any hurry to return this 1,376,700 ounces of gold to The Comex and JPMorgan??? I'd say that this is pretty unlikely. Think about it. If HSBC would have simply played ball and handed back to JPM the 4,935 contracts that it settled to itself in June, total deliveries for August would have been at 9,000 not 4,000, a pace that would have matched February, April and June. Instead, total delivery volume came in at just 4,075 and JPM was left grasping to deliver any contract it can get its grubby little hands on as the final two delivery days saw JPM House stop 395 of the 419 remaining deliveries (19 out of every 20).

    So, most importantly, what happens next?

    Right now, the total open interest for the typically slow delivery month of October is just 23,758. Of that total, how many do you think are held long by JPM? 5,000? I'll guess we'll see when the deliveries begin next month. More significantly, the total open interest of the December contract stands at 229,838 (that's 60% of the entire Comex gold complex) and this is where JPM likely holds the majority of its net long position. If that's correct...and it most likely is...what the heck is going to happen in December? Is JPM going to simply roll into the Feb14 and the Apr14 OR are they going to stand for delivery AND, if they stand for delivery, are they going to attempt to extract 20,000 contracts or more worth of gold from the other BBs? And if the other BBs get wind of this, are they just going to sit idly by and wait to deliver or will they begin to move net long before it even gets that far? And then you're only left with Spec Shorts who don't have the capability to deliver 2,000,000 ounces of gold because they don't have it. They're just short the paper!

    All of this could and should set off a buying frenzy/short-covering spree like no one has ever seen. Not only could and should price move higher in the weeks and months ahead, it should move dramatically higher, catching nearly everyone (except the readers of this site) by complete surprise.

    Of course, all sorts of unforeseen events could come along and derail this plan so caution is always warranted. War could erupt in the MENA. Another Financial Collapse could materialize. Maybe India really will dump 200 metric tonnes onto the market. Any of these things could happen and nullify this forecast. However, I firmly believe that it is highly likely that this plays out almost exactly as I've described above.

    I hope you're ready. Prepare accordingly.

    TF


    About the Author

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      468 Comments

      Refresh
    BagOfGoldmurphy
    Sep 2, 2013 - 9:18pm

    Murphy...

    did you notice that Motley Fool is under your tail?!?...

    Bag Of Gold

    ag1969
    Sep 2, 2013 - 9:06pm

    Hmmm... The New York Times?

    Chasing JPMorgan Chase

    Not too long ago, JPMorgan Chase and its chief executive, Jamie Dimon, were celebrated for navigating the 2008 financial crisis, which brought other big banks to their knees. Now this one-time darling of federal regulators, long thought to be the best managed of all the big banks, is in trouble or apparently headed there on multiple fronts. While the outcome of the various investigations into the bank’s dealings remains unclear, they raise the obvious question of whether banks have become not only too big to fail but too big to manage.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/02/opinion/chasing-jpmorgan-chase.html?_r=0

    murphy
    Sep 2, 2013 - 9:06pm

    BOG

    Nicely switched up! Don't worry Mouse and I have sniffed out MF. We will keep guard of him in the tent.

    edit: Forgot to mention I'm glad to see 66 got his Maple leaf avatar into your work of art.

    Bollocks
    Sep 2, 2013 - 9:01pm

    FURST! (had to)

    Fiction, Fact Or Scandal Of Epic Proportions?

    I've hacked colonel Anthony Jamie MacDonald mail he is intelligence US Army Staff boss. First I hacked his Link3dIn account and got access to his mail through it then.

    Among mail Mayhem like Amazon mails I've found his correspondence with his colleague Eugene Furst. He congratulates Col. with success and gives a link to the Washington Post publication about chemical attack in Syria on August 21. Furst also mentions it was “well staged”. Holy shit. I was shocked my eyes refused to believe it. Bloody bastards they “staged” a chemical attack.

    Then a friend of Anthony MacDonald's wife Jennifer writes she was shocked seeing on TV the children died after chemical attack in Syria. Jennifer answers she saw the story but Tony calm her down saying children were alive and the scene was staged.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-02/fiction-fact-or-scandal-epic-p...

    Sloppy Goatpants
    Sep 2, 2013 - 8:58pm

    John Kerry's face of doom

    Might be off topic but it's something that's been bugging me because I have alot of experience in facial reconstructive surgery.

    John Kerry's bizzaro face is soooo creepy I just can't get past the frozen facade to even start to listen to the blatant lies anymore.

    Not only has this guy had a REALLY bad face lift (I say BAD because his facial nerve function is almost non-existent), he's also had fat injections into his cheeks (probably from his abdomen), a really skeletonizing blepharoplasty (eyelid debulking) and a bit of Botox to boot.

    It's almost something out of a B-horror flick where you're waiting for the devil's true form to melt thru the latex coating...

    How could someone with his military history ever get to this point? One wonders...

    BTW--I've been shelling my dem Senators with emails and phone calls all weekend. Wishing for some (any) type of effect on their upcoming Syria vote... I think the House could have a chance but we've got to at least try with the Senate.

    Occasnltrvlr
    Sep 2, 2013 - 8:58pm

    It'll Be De Fault Of The Government...

    ...If they spend too much time yakking about Syria.

    (Check-f'ing-mate. Regards, Vlad)

    Mr. Fix
    Sep 2, 2013 - 8:53pm

    This seems to have turned into a worthwhile discussion.

    Hat tip to "question" who said that the only moral use of government is to protect an individual's rights.

    That's it folks, and it is the exact opposite of what we have in the world today. When I said before that the only two rules that humanity needs (don't lie, don't steal) I was being quite serious, and this would inherently disqualify all governments as currently constructed, since without exception, none of them could exist following those two simple rules.

    Violence is immoral under any circumstances with only one exception, self-defense. This by itself would eliminate war, since most of them have been started under the pretext of either taking other people's stuff, or making sure they believe in the right God.

    Most human beings just want to be left alone to pursue their own hopes and dreams, raise their own families, contribute to their own charities, and share what they have with their friends.

    Government tends to stand in the way of all of these goals, and yet it advertises that it is “for the people”.

    I don't mind the concept of private self-defense, but you better be able to defend yourself from your defenders.

    It's really that simple. What we have to contend with now is a system on the verge of collapse, and the concepts that I am sharing with the community at large have no chance of implementation in the current system, I only wanted to raise them with the collective conscious here so that they might be remembered when those who survive the collapse can work towards building a new system, one that cherishes the individual, and his rights.

    I do not believe in anarchy, and I do not believe that that would be the result of no government, although the way the current system has been arranged, yes, in a government collapse, anarchy would would be the result, because it has been carefully designed to be the outcome of a failed government.

    Because of generations if not centuries of governments encroaching on individual liberty, and creating systems that can not survive without government, anarchy from the collapse of our current system is quite predictable.

    I believe that it is survivable, at least to the extent that humanity will not cease to exist.

    The question is will humanity learned its lesson? Will people once again willingly hand over their sovereignty to other people and volunteer to serve them? Probably, but it is not inevitable.

    I believe it is a matter of education, and not the kind that you get at public school, or for the most part, most private schools.

    As a child, I was left alone a lot. I used my time to pursue my own interests, and by the time I was 12, I was an accomplished musician, and could disassemble and rebuild any car, with a complete understanding of how they worked, and most importantly, when one didn't, why.

    By the time I was a teenager, I was quite capable of earning a living by performing services for others that they were willing to pay for. I have earned a living using that simple philosophy my entire life.

    Nowadays, most graduates are incapable of living on their own, this is indisputable, and many are saddled with debts they will never be able to repay for an education in a field where there is no work.

    Maybe I am being overly simplistic, but the complexity of modern society is not necessarily beneficial to humanity, of course some people profit from it wildly, and I will admit that entertainment and communications have surpassed my wildest dreams, but is it really necessary?

    Of course I like driving my El Dorado down the interstate with the top down, at a high rate of speed with no particular place to go, mainly because I love it, it is one of my favorite pastimes.

    But if there was no El Dorado, and there was no interstate, I'm sure I would find some other way to amuse myself.

    I enjoy opening up my MacBook Pro, and conversing with the citizens of Turdville. Many of the conversations are both thought-provoking, educational, and yes, entertaining, but if this was unavailable to me, of course, I would find some other way to amuse myself, and more importantly, pass what I know onto others.

    It is entirely possible that I would be far more productive without all of these complex toys that I have for my amusement.

    To even postulate that all of my toys are good and that a government is required for them seriously messes with my belief system, that I even need them in the first place.

    I must take a little road trip now to a local mall to pick my daughter up from the movies with her friends.

    Obviously I will be using a lot of things provided for me by the government in order to perform that basic function.

    But was it really necessary to begin with?

    There are plenty of changes coming in the near future, but for now, life goes on.

    See you all later.

    ggnewmexGeorge Clooney
    Sep 2, 2013 - 8:47pm

    If one believes in no Gov't

    Look no farther than Africa.

    To be sure, our current government is quite farcical, yet for all its faults, things are pretty good. Look to Africa, that is a country with unimaginable beauty,just like the USA. It is resource rich, just ask China.

    However, there is no central government, and everyone (country) is out for the individual/ richest leader. If there was a central government there, I contend that the continent would be just as rich as the USA.

    So, while I agree with much of our current government, it is still a wonderful system when there is collective good being sought.

    288

    tmosley
    Sep 2, 2013 - 8:18pm

    @xty: If you are going to

    @xty:

    If you are going to talk about how an anarcho-capitalist society would or would not work, I would suggest you first consult the master, Murray Rothbard (https://mises.org/document/1850/Nations-by-Consent-Decomposing-the-Natio...), or just read the wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anarcho_capitalism

    Courts work by the fact that any who don't respond to a summons are considered outlaws, and will not have their rights defended by others. In Xeer, the closest thing to an Ancap society currently on Earth, it is UNTHINKABLE not to respond to a summons, because as an outlaw, they could be murdered in the street, robbed, beaten, raped, ANYTHING, and no-one would come to their defense in any organized way.

    Public property would work much the same way it would today. That the property is public does NOT mean that it is owned by everyone (and therefore no-one), but rather it means that it is free for anyone's use. A good example would be a McDonald's bathroom. The bathroom is property of the owner of the franchise, but anyone can use it.

    Occasnltrvlr
    Sep 2, 2013 - 8:18pm

    I Believe the Wandering Motley Fool...

    ...May have visited Mongolia!!

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