More Evidence That JPM Has Cornered Comex Gold

468
Sat, Aug 31, 2013 - 11:36am

If I can bring all of this together, it will go a long way toward proving correct Ted Butler's theory on JPM's current corner of the Comex gold futures market.

So, let's start with Uncle Ted and his assertions. Recall that Ted is a first-rate analyst who has been trading commodities for about 40 years. He has paid particular interest to the silver manipulation for the past 20. He writes an excellent newsletter to which you can subscribe by clicking here: https://www.butlerresearch.com

Using the CFTC-issued weekly and monthly data (Commitment of Traders & Bank Participation Report), Ted has followed along over the past eight months of position changes and, over that time, the changes have been dramatic. As you know, The Bullion Banks were caught heavily short at the initiation of QE∞ last autumn. I contend that this entire manufactured correction scheme was initiated by The Bullion Banks to give them an opportunity to get out from under their naked short positions and move net long. Ted has concluded that it's not the Bullion Banks per se. Instead, the scheme was initiated by JPM solely for the benefit of JPMand, from a net short gold position in excess of 50,000 contracts last December, JPM has now transitioned into a net long gold position of more than 65,000 contracts. IF THIS IS TRUE, there can be absolutely no doubt as to:

  • The motive behind the counter-intuitive price correction AND
  • The certainty of a very large and significant UP move for gold in the very near future.
  • I did not set out to prove or disprove Ted's assertions. After following the Comex gold and silver deliveries these past 60 days, simple curiosity led me to do some research on recent delivery patterns. What I found not only piqued my interest, I think it proves Ted correct. And again, IF TED IS CORRECT, then there is most certainly a very big move coming in gold.

    So, let's start here: After taking into their house account (again, this means stopping the metal to themselves, into their own, proprietary account) 280 of 3,922 Dec12 silver deliveries, 970 of 2,526 March13 silver deliveries, a big fat zero of 3,416 May13 silver deliveries, JPM stopped to themselves 2,824 of the 3,444 July13 silver deliveries. That's 82%. For obvious reasons, this anomaly got my attention.

    As I've been chronicling here all month, this trend continued into the August13 gold delivery period. Last Thursday alone, the final day of August deliveries, the JPM house account took down 154 of the 164 Aug13 gold deliveries. This brings their monthly total to 3,151 of the 4,075 contracts delivered. That's 77.3%! What's more, after the initial surge of 1,962 deliveries on the 1st and 2nd of the month, the JPM house account claimed for itself 1,945 of the 2,113 remaining deliveries. That's 92%!

    With this as inspiration, I went back and reviewed the previous delivery months for gold on The Comex. These delivery months in 2013 have been February, April, June and now August. What I found is startling.

    Let's start with February. Before we begin, recall that for every buyer, there is a seller...and...for every person or entity taking delivery, there is an issuer from whose vaults that metal will flow. Further, keep this in mind...If you have been naked shorting paper contracts all month, you stand the risk that the entity on the other side of your trade will stand for delivery. So, it follows that, when we see one firm taking consistently taking delivery and another firm consistently issuing the metal, we can deduce who has been shorting all along and who has been buying. Does that make sense? I hope so. If it doesn't. then please re-read that info before proceeding. It is critical that you understand this.

    OK, back to February. During that month, the Feb13 contract was in its delivery period. What initially caught everyone by surprise was the sheer volume of deliveries. After just 3,253 in Dec12, a month which is usually one of the biggest delivery months of the year, the delivery total for February surged to 13,070. Of that total, the DeutscheBank house account took 5,917 and the HSBC house account took 4,879. Between the two of them, they accounted for 82% of all Feb deliveries. And just whom was issuing this metal? JPMorgan. For the month, JPM issued 7,854 of the 13,070 delivery requests. That's 60%. Also getting in on the act was Scotia. They got clipped for the issuance of 3,644 contracts. That's 28%. So, the DB and HSBC house accounts took 82% of the deliveries while the JPM (house and customer) and Scotia house accounts supplied 88%. And don't forget, this was a lot of metal! Thirteen thousand and seventy Comex contracts is 1,307,000 troy ounces, which equates to 40.6 metric tonnes.

    Suddenly, the deliveries for March surged, too. Instead of the moribund 500 or so settlements that we typically see in this "non-delivery" month, March13 saw an incredible 4,229 made...more than last December! I'm quite certain that that has never happened before. So what happened? Why was the March total about 3,000 to 3,500 more than typical and expected? Keep reading...

    After getting clipped for 3,644 deliveries in February, Scotia immediately went on to warpath to get that gold back. For the month of March, the Scotia house account took in 3,383 deliveries while at the same time issuing 179. All totaled, Scotia net deliveries were 3,204 of the 4,229 deliveries for March. That's 76% and, if you take that away, you're left with just the typical 1,025 March deliveries. (Actually, it's not that typical. The Barclays customer account took 834 of the 1,025.) Oh, you're probably wondering which firm provided the metal for all those deliveries? JPM. For March, JPM issued 1,813 out of their house account and 2,209 out of their customer account. That's a total of 4,022 or 95% of all March deliveries.

    The next month is April and, once again, it's a delivery month. The surge in total deliveries continued as 11,632 contracts were delivered to eager buyers. Of those, HSBC was again the big winner with 3,954 deliveries into their house account. Scotia took 3,292 and Barclays got in on the act with 1,276. Between the three of them, these proprietary house accounts combined for 73% of all April13 gold deliveries. And who got stuck with the bill? DB paid out 992 and Scotia paid out 595. This left the balance with none other than JPM and they issued 9,690 contracts or 83%. 5,990 came out of JPM house and 3,700 came out of their customer accounts. Again and just for fun, 9,690 Comex settlements means that JPM had to ship out another 969,000 troy ounces or 30.1 metric tonnes.

    So now it's May and, remarkably, the trend of deliveries in traditional non-delivery months continues and, whaddayaknow, it's a near-repeat of March. Of the 3,050 total deliveries in May, the Scotia house account took 1,746 or 57%. And guess who provided the metal...again? JPM. This time they got stuck providing 97% of the metal or 2,948 of the 3,050 deliveries. What's more, they issued the vast majority of this out of their customer account, which was raided for 2,781 of the 2,948 contracts. Again, "customer" gold is metal held on deposit for JPM customers. This is registered and eligible gold and, as we've seen for years, JPM is able to shift it around wherever they see fit. (And who are JPM's "customers"? Well, wouldn't you like to know?...)

    Finally, this trend repeated one more time during the delivery month of June. For the month, 9,869 contracts were delivered. Once again, HSBC grabbed the lion's share, moving 4,935 (almost exactly half) of the deliveries directly into their house account. The Barclays house account took 2,000 and, for the first time since last December, the JPM house account claimed 547 or 5.5%. Issuing? You guessed it. JPM issued 7,425 or 75% while Barclays and DB added about 1,400.

    So, through adding all of this together we get this. For the 3 delivery months of Feb, Apr and June plus the traditional non-delivery months of March and May:

    HSBC House Account: 13,768 deliveries. Total issuance: One. Yes, you read that right. One.

    Scotia House Account: 8,932 deliveries. Total issuance: 4,259

    DeutscheBank House Account: 5,918 deliveries. Total issuance: 1,746

    Barclays House and Customer: 5,384 deliveries. Total issuance: 908

    JPM Customer: 1,444 deliveries. Total issuance: 16,758

    JPM House: 547 deliveries. Total issuance: 15,181

    OK, now before we go any further, I want you to take a second and review this excellent piece by Mark McHugh from back in April. Not only had he spotted this trend, he also goes on to explain how and why the deliveries out of the "customer" account should almost always match. There should not be a significant disparity. https://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress.com/2013/04/26/jamie-dimon-has-issu...

    Can you see what has transpired here?

    Desperate to cover and eliminate their 50,000 contract short position but not wanting to do so through the actual buying of futures contracts for fear of disrupting the building price collapse, JPM decided to eliminate most of the position by settling and closing the short contracts in physical metal, instead. They likely made this decision in the expectation of re-acquiring the metal in the near future at lower prices. So confident were they in this eventuality, they even used customer gold to settle more than half of these obligations.

    The month of June marked the bottom for the manufactured "correction" with price beginning the month at $1390 before trading down to a low of $1179 and closing out the month at $1224. Price has since continued to recover to a last of $1375.

    Not coincidentally, June was also when Uncle Ted first noticed the change of position for JPM and he reported it in early July after reviewing the Bank Participation Report changes from June. Ted got me all worked up so I did some of my own research and wrote about it here. (https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4824/amazing-cot-and-bpr-gold) The gist of it is this: After years of being net short, the U.S bullion banks were net long, so much so that on the July BPR, they were suddenly net long almost 45,000 Comex gold contracts! This trend then continued onto the August BPR (https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4929/reconciliation) which showed the four largest U.S. banks to be net long an astounding 59,473 contracts.

    It's important to note here that the BPR does not provide specifics. It simply aggregates the positions of the four largest U.S. bullion banks and the 20 largest non-U.S. bullion banks. So, it's impossible to say with certainty how the 59,473 contract net long position is divided. But consider this:

    On the BPR dated 2/5/13, the 4 U.S. banks had a combined net short position of 69,300 contracts. After five months of deliveries and a $500 price drop, the 4 banks had flipped to 59,473 contracts net long. Now, go back up and reconsider all of the delivery totals listed above. Can you connect the dots??? If not, I'll do it for you.

    JPMorgan decided late last year to rig the gold market lower in order to create the ideal conditions under which they could flip a 50,000 net short position to a sizeable net long position. Price, delivery notices and the CFTC-supplied reports document that they accomplished this feat by covering and delivering shorts while at the same time initiating and buying longs. They have no doubt been on the buy side of the record-setting Large Spec selling: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-22/they-better-pray-there-no-short-squeeze.

    And here is where it begins to come together...

    If this is the case, and JPM is now net long a massive amount of gold futures, we should expect a complete change in the recent delivery pattern on The Comex. Instead of JPM being the primary issuer, they should be the primary stopper. Additionally, instead of the other banks being the stoppers, they should now be the issuers, particularly the non-U.S. banks as the August BPR showed them to have a net short position in excess of 22,000 contracts.

    And what has happened this month? Exactly that! As stated above, of the 4,075 total contracts deliveries in August, and noting the huge dropoff from the volume of the three previous delivery months, 3,414 were stopped by JPM with 3,151 specifically designated for the JPM house account. And which firms have been issuing? Deutsche issued 1,116, Barclays has done 447 and Scotia accounted for 463. That's a total of 2026 or 49.7%. Note that all three are non-U.S. banks!

    To me, this proves that Ted is correct. Not only is JPM net long the entire 59,473 shown on the August BPR, their position is likely even higher, offset in the net total by a net short position held by the other three U.S. banks included in the report.

    And now...finally...here's the rub. The Big Kahuna. The Grand Finale. JPM is likely going to want back most, if not all, of the 3,193,900 ounces of gold that they delivered earlier this year. (16,758 customer + 15,181 house = 31,939 contracts = 3,193,900 troy ounces = 99.341 metric tonnes of gold) But the other banks aren't budging...at least not yet. There were only 4,075 total deliveries in August! And note that HSBC has taken delivery of 13,768 contracts so far in 2013 while delivering just ONE. And who is HSBC??? Yes, they're an English company but what do the "H" and "S" stand for? Do you really think that they are going to be in any hurry to return this 1,376,700 ounces of gold to The Comex and JPMorgan??? I'd say that this is pretty unlikely. Think about it. If HSBC would have simply played ball and handed back to JPM the 4,935 contracts that it settled to itself in June, total deliveries for August would have been at 9,000 not 4,000, a pace that would have matched February, April and June. Instead, total delivery volume came in at just 4,075 and JPM was left grasping to deliver any contract it can get its grubby little hands on as the final two delivery days saw JPM House stop 395 of the 419 remaining deliveries (19 out of every 20).

    So, most importantly, what happens next?

    Right now, the total open interest for the typically slow delivery month of October is just 23,758. Of that total, how many do you think are held long by JPM? 5,000? I'll guess we'll see when the deliveries begin next month. More significantly, the total open interest of the December contract stands at 229,838 (that's 60% of the entire Comex gold complex) and this is where JPM likely holds the majority of its net long position. If that's correct...and it most likely is...what the heck is going to happen in December? Is JPM going to simply roll into the Feb14 and the Apr14 OR are they going to stand for delivery AND, if they stand for delivery, are they going to attempt to extract 20,000 contracts or more worth of gold from the other BBs? And if the other BBs get wind of this, are they just going to sit idly by and wait to deliver or will they begin to move net long before it even gets that far? And then you're only left with Spec Shorts who don't have the capability to deliver 2,000,000 ounces of gold because they don't have it. They're just short the paper!

    All of this could and should set off a buying frenzy/short-covering spree like no one has ever seen. Not only could and should price move higher in the weeks and months ahead, it should move dramatically higher, catching nearly everyone (except the readers of this site) by complete surprise.

    Of course, all sorts of unforeseen events could come along and derail this plan so caution is always warranted. War could erupt in the MENA. Another Financial Collapse could materialize. Maybe India really will dump 200 metric tonnes onto the market. Any of these things could happen and nullify this forecast. However, I firmly believe that it is highly likely that this plays out almost exactly as I've described above.

    I hope you're ready. Prepare accordingly.

    TF


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      468 Comments

      Refresh
    Dyna mo hum
    Sep 2, 2013 - 10:58pm

    Interstate system DOD

    It has been my understanding that our interstate system was a Department of Defense project. Eisenhower picked up on the idea from Hitler's autobahn in Germany. Great idea. Interstate entrances used to have small signs indicating it is a DOD project. The interstate system was for the military to move equipment quickly and even land aircraft on them. It evolved .

    alan2102
    Sep 2, 2013 - 10:57pm

    The Creed of The American Conservative (for Pining et alia)

    https://www.theamericanconservative.com/who-we-are/

    Who We Are

    Americans didn’t always think of themselves as conservatives. Our country has a revolutionary history, after all, and for much of the 19th century Americans could fairly have been described as classical liberals. “Conservative” was a label for the backward and authoritarian, the most hidebound elements of Old Europe. As late as July 1950, a witness reported of a man causing a public disturbance, ”He was using abusive and obscene language, calling people Conservatives and all that.”

    A people only begins to discover conservatism when it becomes aware of something it has lost. By the mid-20th century, Americans knew they had lost their independence from the wars and intrigues of the Old World, and they increasingly felt the loss of the habits that had defined their form of self-government. Now America was a nation of big business and even bigger government. It was perpetually armed for war, and to finance the armaments and the bigness of everything required tremendous economic stimulus – growth at all costs, whether following the formulas of John Maynard Keynes or those of his neoliberal opponents.

    The themes that run through the works of the first prominent figures to call themselves conservatives — thinkers such as Russell Kirk, Peter Viereck, and Robert Nisbet — are peace, community (which means self-government as well as civil society), and fiscal restraint. Today, many politicians and pundits who call themselves conservatives seem to stand for something else: war, every man for himself, and endless deficits and debt.

    What wrecked the good name of conservatism? Success. The conservative critique of the liberal welfare-warfare state was so powerful that special interests (such as those that President Eisenhower called the Military-Industrial Complex) and opportunistic politicians began to adopt the label and offer fame, money, and power to conservatives who would admit them to the fellowship. As well, there was another reaction against the new age of ideology and bigness, a populist reaction. Combining populist anger with the name of conservatism proved a winning formula for fundraisers and office-seekers. But instead of making the populist uprising more conservative, the effect was to remake conservatism as populism. Thus the principle conservative values of peace, community, and economic responsibility came to be lost amid wars and rumors of wars, military Keynesianism and promises of perpetual, debt-fueled growth.

    The original conservatives—and some of their libertarian and even liberal friends, those who were more conservative than they knew—had it right. Today the country pays the price for the left-wing ideologies that ran rampant in the 20th century and the right-wing, but not conservative, reaction that has only exacerbated the destruction wrought by the left. To solve the country’s seemingly intractable—and, in the long-term, lethal—strategic, economic, and socio-cultural problems requires a rediscovery of traditional conservatism.

    That’s the mission of The American Conservative.

    ............................................

    repeat: MILITARY KEYNESIANISM. That which has destroyed us.

    Mr. Fix
    Sep 2, 2013 - 10:42pm

    AG 1969, nice find!

    Conclusive evidence that people are actually waking up and realizing that their government is not working in their best interests.

    Having populations openly opposed to their own governments actions is a game changer, not that it will avert war, but without public support, they don't last very long.

    Whoever is behind releasing all this juicy information is doing God's work, undermining the Obama agenda by exposing it will sooner or later put an end to it.

    I just wonder how long the Internet will keep working now?

    SilverSurfers
    Sep 2, 2013 - 10:40pm

    GSR

    GSR < 25:1, maybe .... probably sweet 16

    The Crests - Sixteen Candles

    In other words alan, its only brilliant when it fits your perspective.

    When you appreciate brilliance, even when its totally wrong, then you are enlightened.

    China is hanging +/- a few cents, could be fireworks tomorrow.

    BHO in Syria, support?

    Probably not support or contrary support, but simply DONT KNOW and SIMPLY CONFUSED.

    Video unavailable
    ag1969
    Sep 2, 2013 - 10:34pm

    Syria Was The Tipping Point. The Empire Is Dead. Let’s Do Someth

    Syria Was The Tipping Point. The Empire Is Dead. Let’s Do Something New.

    Posted on September 3, 2013 by horse237

    The Empire died on the road to Damascus.

    My activism began as a child before the election of Kennedy. I knew who was going to assassinate him and why. When he was killed, hardly anyone was willing to listen to the truth because that would require them to get out of their comfort mode and actually risk their lives to do something. But now even the most ignorant have swung around and have learned to say No. Only 9% of Americans said they would support Obama if he attacked Syria. In Great Britain Obama only had 8% support. And that is with the corporate media not bothering to publish the Associated Press reporter who said the rebels did the gas attack.

    One reason for the wild swing in public opinion is the rise of the Internet which allows us to undo the lies we are told rather quickly. Does anyone still actually believe that 19 Arabs with box cutters did 911?

    Another reason for the sudden rise in resistance is that the lies are covering policies that have led us into demonstrable failures. The wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya have led us all to bankruptcy. Americans are literally dying because they cannot afford to fix their infrastructure. Their money had to go to fight wars for Israel. In 2001 General Wesley Clark saw a list of 7 nations the NeoCons wanted us to invade in 5 years. We wasted trillions of dollars for Israel that could have been better spent to prevent disasters like the Katrina flood and collapsing bridges. America has a deficit of 4 trillion dollars in urgent infrastructure repairs that must be done to prevent the nation from devolving into Third World status.

    https://vidrebel.wordpress.com/2013/09/03/syria-was-the-tipping-point-th...

    Mr. Fix
    Sep 2, 2013 - 10:28pm

    alan2102

    Sounds like progress to me!

    alan2102Mr. Fix
    Sep 2, 2013 - 10:24pm

    Mr Fix

    "How about the American interstate highway system? Truly a fantastic achievement, which arguably could not have happened without government, but then I ask you this: Was it really a good thing? With fossil fuels now in short supply, and supply chains spread over thousands of miles, would it have not been better for local communities to be considerably more self-sufficient? Relying on highways that span a continent to deliver essential services is a disaster in the making, since it is completely unsustainable, and the fast resources required to create such a system could have been infinitely better spent at the local level."

    That's an excellent point. My hat is off to you. Seriously.

    You see, Mr Fix, I don't think that everything you say is batshit crazy. I only think the things you say that are batshit crazy are batshit crazy. When you say something that is highly intelligent and perceptive, and factual, like that quoted passage, I recognize and will acknowledge it.

    Mr. Fix
    Sep 2, 2013 - 10:21pm

    "Quick Action".....HA HA HA !!!

    As More Fukushima Leaks Are "Discovered", Japan Vows "Quick Action"

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/02/2013 - 22:13

    First it was "contained." Then we found out there was a "small leak." Then, after numerous media reports confirmed it, Japan admitted there was "a big leak," which only became bigger with time. Then the severity level of Fukushima was raised from level 1 to level 3, the highest since the March 2011 disaster. And nowit is many leaks. According to AP, "Japan's top nuclear regulator raised safety concerns Monday about hastily built storage tanks and their foundations at the damaged Fukushima Dai-Ichi power plant after signs of new leaks of radioactive water. The latest leak was found over the weekend in a connecting pipe. The plant's operator, Tokyo Electric Power Co., said it suspects there may also have been leaks from three storage tanks because elevated radioactivity was detected near them. The levels were not considered deadly." Oh so it was not the 1.8 sieverts/hour reported over the weekend? Maybe in the case the honorable Prime Minister can take a big swig from the supposedly undeadly water.

    Occasnltrvlr
    Sep 2, 2013 - 10:17pm

    Feeling A Little Jaded

    One of countless jade shops in Kunming, with many different vendors, almost like a jade "flea market", not very far from the main train station.

    It sure can be beautiful, but I didn't know enough about it to even consider asking to see something.

    Mr. Fix
    Sep 2, 2013 - 10:17pm

    Fiction, Fact... Or Scandal? (Maybe Bollocks has somthing)

    Fiction, Fact... Or Scandal?

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/02/2013 - 20:40

    * * * We make no claims that any of the presented is in any way accurate or representative of the truth. It is sourced from a "hack" by €Wagn3r of what the hacker purports to be numerous emails of one Colonel Anthony James MacDonald, his wife, and various other "Pentagon officers." However, if accurate, the exposed data sheds some critical, if circumstantial, light on the events that transpired in the days ahead of the Wednesday, August 22 "nerve gas" chemical attack alleged to have been executed by Syria's president al-Assad, and presented "beyond a doubt" as such, and as the basis for full-scale military operations and "surgical strikes" targeting Syrian assets, which in the coming days will involve a Congressional vote to determine the fate of the Syrian government and ostensibly of ten of thousands of innocent civilians caught in the crossfire. While we doubt the Pentagon, the US Military, or any person in the administration will officially address these "hacked" emails, the world has a right to be aware of the existence of this information, and to come their own conclusions about the veracity of the official "case" for Syrian involvement * * *

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