Three Things Everyone Should Read

Fri, Aug 30, 2013 - 10:51am

Most everyone knows by now that the only two "technical analysts" to whom I pay any attention are Louise Yamada and Tom Fitzpatrick.

Tom Fitzpatrick is one of the chief TA guys at Citigroup and maybe I just like him because so often him analysis mirrors mine. Regardless, whenever he makes his work public, you need to always read through it. Therefore, please be sure to check out these three links. Much of what is covered is familiar to the readers here at TFMR but it's always a good thing to be reminded of why the bullish argument for the metals is so powerful.

One more thing...last week I wrote what I believe to be one of the most significant articles I have ever written. My plan is to update that post with the final August delivery numbers and release it publicly tomorrow so please be sure to check back over the 3-day weekend. If you're not a GoldMember and therefore haven't had a chance to read it yet, you're going to want to. It's pretty good stuff.

Have a great weekend!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 30, 2013 - 10:54am


fast enough... but 2nd?

Aug 30, 2013 - 10:59am


first amendment

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances

Aug 30, 2013 - 11:03am

3rd ?

Here I am, once again.

Gold Dog
Aug 30, 2013 - 11:03am

Who was that nephew?

That dude can party....I think my eyes are bleeding!


Aug 30, 2013 - 11:08am

just lookin' around...........

just reading the latest on the free side.......and got in early......

waiting to see what the long holiday weekend brings us in the M.E.

my stack is on sound worries here

Aug 30, 2013 - 11:15am

Why were so few AGEs sold in August?

While we have discussed it before, I just do not understand how it is possible that only 8,500 gold eagles have been sold in August. This is far less by factors than any other month this year. Yet all the reasons for buying gold are valid this month, in fact even more so based on the facts Turd has shown us about demand for gold and JPMorgan taking most of the deliveries for gold this month.

I went to provident and put 10,000 ASEs in my basket and they appear to have them in stock. I did not check out since the cost was $14,504,200. Does this mean that supply from the mint is not the problem, but rather lack of buying demand?

It makes no sense to me. What is going on?

Aug 30, 2013 - 11:23am


Read fitz' analysis yesterday, but when did Citi become a voice to listen to? Always thought to take their writings as contrary.

I don't know who the 'good guys' are anymore.

Aug 30, 2013 - 11:26am

Citibank says gold and silver

Citibank says gold and silver to rise?

This is the confirmation I was looking for to sell more silver stocks! Hope to buy physical later with the cash I raise.

Also the EE is losing more allies for the Syria strike? It seems less likely for a war now. Fantastic! Bankster wars, take a hike!

Another thing that is bothering me is there may be a lots of arm twisting of India and SE Asian countries to release their gold or their currencies will keep falling. Even if India does not release their physical and only deal with paper gold , the news can send PMs tumbling down. Take this into consideration when placing your bets. GL to all.

Iceberg Slim
Aug 30, 2013 - 11:27am

AGE Mintage for August

I'm inclined to believe that the very low AGE's mintage/sales in August is due to the limited edition reverse proof American Gold Buffalo that the mint released. Gold bullion blanks that would have normally been used for AGE's were instead used to the Buffalo's.

If you remember, now the Mint no longer needs to mint bullion coins to meet demand, it only has to make enough coins "in amounts the treas sec see's fit".

Aug 30, 2013 - 11:32am

gold back up

above 1401 phew!

Aug 30, 2013 - 11:42am


Whats with all this metals talk? i thought this was a conspiricy site

Just kiddin, hope those forecasts are correct. Still looking forward to the day my wife has to eat her words about my poor investment choices

Aug 30, 2013 - 11:44am

I'm just sayin

Tom F knows his stuff and you need to read it. Throw it out if you want but I've read his stuff for years and I value his perspective.

Again, he and Louise Yamada are the only two technicians I follow.

Aug 30, 2013 - 12:08pm

Email blast from Dr. Janda


This is the most important article you will read in your lifetime...... I kid you not. READ IT AND READ IT NOW...... THEN PASS IT ON TO EVERYONE YOU KNOW AND LOVE!!!!
We are at the precipice of World War III ...... a war which will kill millions and leave those left on Earth forever in horror. The difference between 2013 and 1913 and 1944 is the Internet and the ability to stop propaganda in it's tracks before bombs and cruise missiles start to fly...... that is where we come in.
The Noble Peace Prize Winner Obama is about to launch an Unconstitutional War on fraudulent and propagandized information in order to protect the petrodollar and divert attention away from the economic implosion occurring at home. After you read the article take a listen to my segment on the War from last Sunday...... it will tell you want you need to know and what the Powers That be do not want you to hear.
Dave Janda
ancientmoney Iceberg Slim
Aug 30, 2013 - 12:10pm

@Cavalier and Iceberg Slim re: ASEs and AGEs . . .

It seems that there are enough AGEs available in the market right now. My on-line dealer has no delays in shipping AGEs or any other one-ounce gold coin for that matter.

On the other hand, this dealer has two-week delays on shipping ASEs and silver Maples, and a three-week delay on junk silver (pre-1965 U.S. coinage). However, he only deals in monster boxes of the popular silver Eagles and Maples.

Aug 30, 2013 - 12:10pm

Silver & Gold Regaining Their Lustre

Aug. 30, 2013, 8:28 a.m. EDT

Gold looks good here, but silver looks even better

By Mike Paulenoff

The big-picture pattern in spot gold suggests strongly that a major correction within the 1999-2011 bull market transpired between the Sept. 6, 2011, high at $1921.50 and the June 24, 2013, low at $1180.04. In addition, a new bull phase, or upleg, is in its infancy that should propel spot gold to new all-time (nominal) highs in the weeks and months ahead.

With the foregoing in mind, the June-August up-move of 22% ($254) is at a bit of a crossroads as the rally has entered an important resistance zone at the intersection of the flattening 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), now at $1425, and the nearest-term resistance line at $1415.

If any forthcoming weakness in spot gold can hold above $1395-$1390, the pattern off the low will remain exceptionally powerful and promising, and will argue that the next up-move should propel prices toward a test of the major breakdown plateau at $1522-$1527, on the way to $1560-$1590.

Only a decline that breaks $1360-$1350 will compromise my current very constructive outlook for gold.

Silver, arguably, holds more promise than gold, if only because our work on the gold/silver ratio favors the relative outperformance of silver. We analyze and track the Sprott Physical Silver Trust ETF PSLV -0.94% , which has been in an up-move since Aug. 7.

On Monday, Aug. 12, PSLV gapped up from its prior close at $8.15. All of the action between June 20 and Aug. 12 represents an "island cluster reversal," which in English means that a gap on the way down in June has been matched by a gap on the way up in August that has separated the entire timeframe from the rest of the chart.

As we noted to members on Aug. 12, this island cluster reversal has the potential to be a technical game-changer for PSLV, i.e., an indication of a major bottom in the physical silver ETF, which so far has proven accurate.

That said, however, we noted that PSLV certainly has challenges directly ahead (actually, overhead) starting at the $9.40-$9.80 resistance plateau, a sustained hurdle of which should trigger a very powerful buy signal.

Sure enough, since reaching near that level on Wednesday, Aug. 28, the ETF has pulled back. Wednesday's downside reversal and Thursday's downside follow-through in PSLV, in sympathy with the correction in the precious metals and the miners, should find support and new buying interest in the $9.10-$9.40 target zone. This is where I am expecting a powerful upside reversal to propel PSLV above the flattening 200-day EMA at $10.00, on the way to $11.00-$11.20.

See charts illustrating the technical patterns in spot gold and the physical silver ETF (PSLV).

ancientmoney ¤
Aug 30, 2013 - 12:17pm

@DPH re: silver looks even better . . .

I think so, too.

It has been my thought that JPM has been creating a stir in COMEX and GLD gold stocks to draw attention away from the seemingly comatose silver market.

Ever since the Cyprus Steal (actually well before it happened), gold stocks are being reported to be draining out of comex and GLD.

However, regardless what happens to silver prices, the stocks hardly change at all at comex or SLV.

To my way of thinking, knowing how JPM/Fed has operated for at least since Bear Stearns and Lehman were turned to dust (or rather, given to JPM), this is an ongoing false flag to keep people away from buying silver.

As I have said, as have many notable experts (I am not one, BTW), silver is the Achilles heel of the fiat financial system.

Aug 30, 2013 - 12:19pm

After these last two posts, I expect Motley Fool to barge in any

time now and challenge anything good said about silver . . .

Aug 30, 2013 - 12:32pm

Where is the discussion

On GOFO rates now in the positive? Also, I don't see Obama moving forward with any action in the ME. Perhaps a targeted strike, but I don't think the situation escalates much beyond some sabre rattling. Argentus and Ilya are calling for a drop in gold and silver through the first week or two of September. These guys have nailed it the past few months. I think we may see some good buying opportunities in the miners (if you're a sadist) and the metals over the next several weeks.

Aug 30, 2013 - 12:40pm


Wow, the one day I forget to check them, and there is a big move. Thanks for posting that.

ForWhomTheTollBuilds cavalier
Aug 30, 2013 - 12:40pm

Why were so few AGEs sold in August?

I don't have an answer to your question, but I have a prediction about how the event will be treated by the MSM who had no interest in the record breaking sales this years so far.

Headline: "US Mint: Demand for PMs UTTERLY COLLAPSE."

"We've never seen anything like this" said an official who is considering sending layoff notices to mint workers. "Many of these people spent their wages on bullion, thinking it would protect them somehow. Now they are double screwed".

The stunning drop in consumer demand mirrors the catastrophic collapse in demand exhibited by discerning investors who dumped their investments earlier in the year. "It seems retail is always the last to know" said the official, starting off into space.

Aug 30, 2013 - 12:48pm

ancient, re mf

That WOULD be par for the course, wouldn't it?

What will he do when the GSR goes to 30:1?

ancientmoney ForWhomTheTollBuilds
Aug 30, 2013 - 12:55pm

@Forwhomthetollbuilds re: so few AGEs?

ASE sales on pace for record sales.

Seems people see the relative value of silver when the price ratio is 60:1. Looks like the reason for fewer AGE sales is a lot of smart shoppers.

Aug 30, 2013 - 1:00pm

Saudi WMD?

Seems to me, it is been spun that Saudi is manipulating the world. Controlling Chechen terrorists etc...

That Obama is being played by the Saudi's.

So... The Saudi's have WMD and gave them to and pay the Syrian rebels to overthrow Assad. And Saudi terrorists did 9/11 AND Chechens did Boston Bomb.

Yet it seems that 9/11 did not go down as they claim it did. That Boston was not what it seems.

So this is all done by Saudi? Ermmm How about Saudi is doing the dirty work for Uncle Sam. It was just following orders. ERGO (where did Saudi get WMD?) Uncle Sam is responsible for genocide in Syria and 9/11 and Boston Bomb and... IRAQ and Afghanistan and Libya and is now about to launch cruise missiles on Syria.

Just sayin

Aug 30, 2013 - 1:02pm
ancientmoney Bugzy
Aug 30, 2013 - 1:24pm

@Bugzy re: Saudis involvement . . .

U.S. has provided the Saudi elite emirs with massive protection for decades in return for cheap oil. Or, at least what we have perceived as cheap oil.

The petrodollar regime took over after Nixon took us off gold standard in 1971. It already existed prior, but became the de facto method of trade settlement thereafter.

FOFOA says the Saudis also received a lot of western gold over the years in the exchange, as they did not want just worthless dollars in exchange for the oil.

The Saudis can afford better than anyone to do the "payola" routine for whatever dirty deed needs to be done anywhere in the world, but especially in ME.

John Galt Bugzy
Aug 30, 2013 - 1:27pm

@ Bugzy re: Just Sayin (a little more)

In addition to the points you have raised there are other puppet masters at work in the Middle East, including one nation (who shall not be named) that is perceived by many the ultimate string puller controlling US government action - especially in the Middle East.

When you consider that so many strings and so many puppets are tangled together in this region (with different puppets at different times all being masqueraded as THE puppet master), it becomes ever more clear that the real puppet masters are the one who remains invisible.

P.S. To those who object to this "conspiracy nonsense" being raised on Main Street, keep in mind that it's in keeping with what Turd decided to post on this thread. And since the discussion is "supposed to be" about PMs those looking to score big on the PM trade should see their Au investments skyrocket in fiat denominated terms with any outbreak in hostilities. And Ag investors can be reassured too, because not only with those assets rise in value in fiat based terms, but each cruise missile launched will also vaporize approx. 500 oz. of global Ag supply. How's that for industrial supply demand? (sarc off)

Aug 30, 2013 - 1:28pm

Ever since the negativity was

Ever since the negativity was cut in half back on Monday, we've been discussing this.

Big move again today and now just the one-month is negative, which is a huge change since last week. To me this indicates a sudden appearance of supply, most likely leased gold from the BIS. Maybe the "Indian Leasing Story" is actually happening? Something has changed because suddenly there seems to be a supply relief.

As this portends to short-term certainly doesn't help. Let's see if other factors such as JPM's corner have a greater impact.

Aug 30, 2013 - 1:38pm
Aug 30, 2013 - 1:43pm


Yes indeed, it is entirely possible that crying near walls is the chief puppet master.

ancientmoney TF
Aug 30, 2013 - 1:44pm

@Turd re: GOFO rates turned positive . . .

Another angle nobody discusses is that not long before this period of manipulations came about (it seems to have been in the last year or two, as recollection serves--or not), was the removal of SOFO rate reporting.

My guess is that they knew SOFO would go and stay negative, so best to remove it altogether so nobody asked any tough questions.

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