New from Paul Mylchreest

Tue, Aug 27, 2013 - 5:00pm

Just wanted to be sure that this got a fair hearing on Main Street.

I met Paul through NN-L. He is an outstanding analyst and his research papers are always first rate. Below is a Scribd doc of his latest: "Collateral: Could the Post-Lehman Reflation Be Reaching Its Limits?"

Please take the time to read and consider the entire article but you'll want to pay particular attention from page 14 on as Paul discusses the current backwardation and negative forward rates in gold.


Thunder Road Report August by zerohedge

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 27, 2013 - 5:04pm

Good read

Has some useful information, but seriously, just keep stacking. It's the only way forward....

And, first? bitchez?

Aug 27, 2013 - 5:26pm


My favorite number!

Aug 27, 2013 - 5:27pm

Yealp #2 it is

Thanks for the public post Turd!

I have been craving a Thunder Road Report for some time now.

Page 7 (and beyond) should be understood with regards to the OpEd from Saturday Titled:

The Institution of Money

By argentus maximus | Saturday, August 24, 2013 Both OpEd's are very prudent to understanding the relationship of all this and enjoyed both! Thank You!!!
Aug 27, 2013 - 5:29pm

Good read.

....and I read it BEFORE claiming top ten again.


Aug 27, 2013 - 5:31pm

ZH been on about collateral

The tylers or at least one of them has been beating the collateral shortage issue for a while now especially in regards to repo and bonds. Rob Kirby disagress basically stating the fed can set interest rate to anything they need to through various mechanisms like swaps. But I think ZH position is on to something general.

In the end, when it comes down to everyday business, its all about collateral. Real businessmen need to feel somewhat assured they can get something for what they are doing. All sorts of financial instituitions have formal collateral definitions and many have been changing in recent years. But in the end that doesn't mean shit. Sure it lets banks and other parasites operate with more ease but in the end its the actual businesses that need to feel comfortable about what is going on. You offer your car up as collateral on the deal and it goes south I get a car. You offer up some bond backed bullshit derivitized three ways to sunday and I may say "How about your car instead?".

These formal "rules" are slowly erroding and being invalidated through lack of trust. Too many promises are going to be broken. Too many things redefined in desperation. Too many contracts abrogated through pure BS. And then we will be back to something we should never left: "Talk is cheap, but whiskey costs money", "Put up or shut up", "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".

The more nervous people get the less "collateral" there will be. This will not be linear. And the redefinitions of what is acceptable collateral from a pinhead economist's point of view seems like an easy win. In reality it is actually tightening the collateral situation as the savvy people who need to do real stuff smell desparation and become more stringent.

Aug 27, 2013 - 5:41pm

Numero Seven

From the cracks I see in the facade, Paul Mylchreest is probably right on in seeing problems emerging for the current debt bubble.


Aug 27, 2013 - 5:51pm

Yes, it's definitely war - BBC Newsnight - live - right now..

A UK Govt spokesperson in the studio just said "the key thing is that people are very keen for a punitive strike, something that involves cruise missiles fired from submarines and warships out in the Mediterranean... missiles should be fired into Syria and military targets"

"people are very keen for a punitive strike" What people? There is NO questioning about that.

The agenda is war. No doubt about it.

The forced message is that everyone in the UK is behind it. That's what they say, so it must be true.


Aug 27, 2013 - 6:22pm


Ethos, Pathos and Logos.

They use these three modes of communication to lie to us:

  • Ethos is an appeal to ethics, and it is a means of convincing someone of the character or credibility of the persuader.
  • Pathos is an appeal to emotion, and is a way of convincing an audience of an argument by creating an emotional response.
  • Logos is an appeal to logic, and is a way of persuading an audience by reason.

Aug 27, 2013 - 6:43pm

Ethos, Pathos and Logos ?

Ethos = Conservative Alpha Male approach .... Pathos = Socialist, Female, Pathetic .... Logos = My Libertarians and totally outnumbered .... sigh ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Cacophony Of Armchair Generals At Xero Edge Is Deafening World Tour PS: A Cutting Edge implies direction of the cut .... not a mixed bag of Conspiracy Breathing Socialists and Anarchists .... with a few sensible Libertarians mixed in !

Howard Roark
Aug 27, 2013 - 6:48pm


I´m following the Chuck Hagel on BBC, it´s just China, China, China... even when talking about the region. Well of course, but nothing of substance. Directly, I mean.

As to the dimensions of analizyng discourse (ethos, pathos, logos), I guess that gubs, politicians and MSM are only worried about the first two: ethos and pathos. That´s why the political struggle gives so much attention to character (ethos) assassinations and marketing the most mainstream ideas from socialism, gaining strength from from emotions/sentiments like envy (pathos).

The logos dimension, it´s another story. And that´s the way this community can make a difference: show through reason and logic the consequences of this great experiment we are living.

Kudos Bollocks!

Now reading the entire Thunder Road report.



Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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