A Big, Fat Zero (public)

Mon, Aug 19, 2013 - 1:26pm

The subscriber base reached a consensus over the weekend that important articles such as this one should always be made "public" within 24-48 hours. So here you go...

A doughnut. A cookie. A goose egg. Call it what you want and it's still the same. A big, fat zero. It's not often that I get all worked up on a Saturday but, when I noticed this, it was clear that I needed to write up a new post.

"What in the world are you talking about, Turd?'"

Comex August gold delivery notices. Would you like to know how many went out yesterday? Zero. Zilch. Nada. In other words...none.

And this is happening in the midst of an incredible surge of global demand for physical gold. To refresh your memory or in case you missed it, this data comes from a World Gold Council (not exactly our best friend) report that summarized global demand for the second quarter.

On the demand side we have:

  • Demand from India and China alone in Q2 was 310 tonnes and 276 tonnes or 586 tonnes combined. This demand alone vastly outnumbers the ETF outflows.
  • Globally, jewelry demand was up 37% in Q2 2013 to 576 tonnes (t) from 421t in the same quarter last year, reaching its highest level since Q3 2008. In China, demand was up 54% compared to a year ago; while in India demand increased by 51%.
  • There were also significant increases in demand for gold jewelry in other parts of the world: the Middle East region was up by 33%, and in Turkey demand grew by 38%.
  • Bar and coin investment grew by 78% globally compared to the same quarter last year, topping 500 tonnes in a quarter for the first time. In China, demand for gold bars and coins surged 157% compared with the same quarter last year, while in India it jumped 116% to a record 122t. Taking jewelry demand and bar and coin investment together, global consumer demand totaled 1,083t in the quarter, 53% higher than a year ago.
  • For the tenth consecutive quarter, central banks were net buyers of gold, purchasing 71t, which reinforces the trend that began in Q1 2011

But on the supply side of the equation, we have this:

  • On the supply side, recycling fell 21% in the quarter while mine production was 4% higher than a year ago, at 732t. In total, supply was 6% lower than a year ago.

I would also ask you to once again consider these charts. Thank you, Jesse! (https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/08/comex-gold-remains-at-...)

So, let me see if I've got this straight...

Global, physical demand is surging and even on The Comex we've seen this this trend influence things. How?

Last December, a month that is typically one of the biggest delivery months of the year for Comex gold, I was surprised to note that The Comex only delivered 3,253 contracts. Then, once February rolled around, got an even bigger surprise. For the February delivery month, The Comex delivered 13,070 contracts. Holy cow, that's a lot! The trend continued in April as The Comex delivered 11,632 contracts and June saw 9,869 delivered. But now in August....even though there have been no signs of decreased global demand....there have only been 2,965 deliveries? AND ZERO YESTERDAY? Seriously??

And what if I threw this next log on the fire???...

The cumulative total deliveries for the last four delivery months is 37,824 contracts. During that period, JPMorgan settled (stopped) a total of 2,162 contracts directly into their proprietary (house) account. That's 5.71% of all deliveries for the past four delivery months.

This month, of the 2,965 gold deliveries made through last Thursday, JPM had stopped into their house account 2,151 of them (72%). That's interesting, isn't it? Just this month alone, JPM has stopped as many contracts for themselves as they had in the previous four months combined.

But wait, there's more...Over the past nine days (8/5 - 8/15), The Comex has delivered just 1,003 contracts and the JPM house account has stopped 945 of them. That's 94%! And now yesterday, 8/16, The Comex has no deliveries at all? Seriously??

So now, suddenly, even though global demand does not seem to be falling off, The Comex is on a run rate of just 4,000 deliveries again. Hmmm. The average total deliveries for the previous three delivery months this year is 11,524 and yet this month is coming in 60% less? Seriously??

Does anyone else see and smell a very smoky fire here? Here are just some random dots. Feel free to connect them:

  • The CoT and BPR reports show that JPM has flipped a 50,000+ contract net short Comex position into an 85,000+ net long position over the past eight months.
  • Though they had shown very little interest in silver deliveries earlier this year, JPM's demand for silver deliveries into their house account rose to 2,824 of 3,444 total Comex deliveries for July. That's 82%.
  • First Notice Day for the July silver contract was Friday, June 28. On that day, silver rose 92¢ from $18.60 to $19.52. By July 16th, it had risen to $20. Yesterday, it closed at $23.37.
  • First Notice Day for the August gold contract was Wednesday, July 31. It was a very volatile day. Gold traded $15 higher before closing $20 lower at $1313. Yesterday, gold closed at $1371 and then traded even higher on The Globex with cash gold closing at $1376.

So, if you're like me and you think that this points to even higher prices ahead, you'd probably like some charts with a few mileposts for the road ahead. Here you go. The journey won't be easy but it certainly seems to be heading in one direction.

OK, I think I'll stop there. It's after noon on a Saturday and MrsF is calling. Go now and get some rest. I'm going to need you back here on Monday with your gameface on. It promises to be a very interesting week and remainder of the month...and year....and next year...


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 19, 2013 - 1:27pm

Re public releases

Maybe we'll do one of these per week, depending upon the timeliness and importance of the content.

Aug 19, 2013 - 1:30pm


Turd any Comments?

Just a heads up to those whose emotions are affected by violent moves in gold and silver prices... HANG ON TIGHT THIS WEEK! There are a few things that are pointing to something big hitting this week or next. This would be OFFICIAL market manipulation moves and not necessarily the handy work the banking cabal working on their own. Obama is calling in all the heads of the big financial regulators for meetings tomorrow...in which he usually gives them "stand down" orders on market surveillance for an upcoming operation. Also, the silver COT's are showing that SOMEONE is massively shorting on the latest rise in the price of silver. Although in the past it has usually been JP Morgan, I believe that it may be someone else this time...a non-regulated hedge fund like BLACKROCK. This would be part of their takeover plans of the silver rigging reigns. Not sure if they will spike the price up or down but in the past it has been down. Again, my advice to everyone is to sit on the sidelines with physical metal in hand and wait out the manipulations. FYI - You should be excited about these moves because this is all part of the END GAME. The more action we see....the closer we are to the END! May the Road you choose be the Right Road. Bix Weir www.RoadtoRoota.com PS - For those who missed my alert last Friday about getting out of Gold you can find it here.. ALERT: Get out of GOLD and into Silver NOW! https://www.roadtoroota.com/public/1251.cfm
Aug 19, 2013 - 1:32pm

GOFO still negtive!

is this the beginning of the permanent backwardation that Professor Fekete was talking about?

Aug 19, 2013 - 1:32pm

Time will tell, I guess

It promises to be a wild week, nonetheless.

Aug 19, 2013 - 1:33pm

It sure looks like it.

It sure looks like it.

Aug 19, 2013 - 1:38pm

World Gold Council's Grubb: Speculative Shorts Caused Gold Plung

World Gold Council's Grubb: Speculative Shorts Caused Gold Plunge

Very interesting interview. Grubb says futures, not ETFs were the source of the decline. In fact, "to some degree, the ETFs have become a source of physical gold for the market. If you have backwardation in the gold futures, the ETFs almost become a cheap source of physical gold for consumers who are prepared to pay a premium in Eastern markets," he said.

Aug 19, 2013 - 1:44pm

Is the government trying to break up JPMorgan?


"The United States government has made it a priority to break this company," said Dick Bove, vice president of equity research at Rafferty Capital Markets. "In my view, it wants the firm broken up and it wants the management changed. Every action that it has taken in the past few years is oriented toward this goal."

Bove alleged that there are "eight U.S. government agencies seeking ways to harm" JPMorgan and purposely linked confidential documents to the Times as part of the effort, in which he believes the press also has been complicit.

"The government and the press are out to breakup JPMorgan Chase," he said. "Its shareholders have a stake in this attack. They need to be careful."

spin? propaganda? foretelling? disinfo? ????

Aug 19, 2013 - 1:48pm

Lets see.

This "could" be the perfect contrarian trap tomorrow.

What if the metals MOPE training has been deemed effective?... and since the short-time shorts that have rushed back in very recently, could they be sitting ducks for an unexpected contrarian move tomorrow?

At the very least, we know the move has the potential to be big. Its either look out below like April, or watch out above...in fact, put your jetpack helmet on....and take an anti-nausea pill as the negative-G's tomorrow (to the upside) could make you sick. (which would be a great thing)

For the faint hearted, sleep will not be easy tonight.


Ps. I am going with the latter.

Aug 19, 2013 - 1:48pm

Seventh on the freebie post?

Thanks for making this public!

Aug 19, 2013 - 1:49pm

got bling?

Blinged out: New Apple iPhone may be gold

Apple will be selling its next generation iPhone in a gold shade, according to a report.......a new low-cost iPhone dubbed the iPhone 5C, are reportedly going to be revealed Sept. 10, according to All Things D. It's also been rumored that the new iPhone 5C will feature a fingerprint scanner, which would allow the iPhone owner to unlock their phone with their finger.

I guess those with bling will be giving the gov't their fingerprints now as well!

Got Bling?

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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