Distracted

402
Fri, Jul 19, 2013 - 12:34pm

I keep trying to type up this post while at the same time watching The British Open. It's now 10:45 EDT. The British Open is winning.

I don't know why I enjoy watching links golf so much. I think it dates back to when I was a Teenage Turd, ESPN was in its infancy and they used to show old British Open highlights for programming. As an aspiring, young golfer, I found it fascinating. But now it just frustrates me. Why? Eight years ago this fall, my good friend BucketHead (and helluva golfer) died of a brain tumor that I will always blame on his incessant cellphone use. I pledged then that I would soon cross "Golf in Scotland" off of my bucket list. Eight years on and I still haven't pulled it off. Fortunately, I'm still healthy and fit so perhaps next year will be the year. However, the state of the global financial system is far from "healthy". Will The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment continue for another year or is massive change right around the corner? I wish I could say with certainty but I can't. All I can do is prepare...and twist Sweetness' arm for 2014. I need him to come with me so that I can fund my trip with a daily nassau.

I have hope that we are beginning to see a bit of a sea change in gold. Does anyone else sense a "buy the dip" mentality emerging? Since the snapback bounce off of the lows of July 5, gold has been beaten back from $1300 and toward $1270 on three occasions and each of those dips have been bought.

So now here we are, two hours away from closing out our second, consecutive UP week in gold. IF we can hold on...and it looks like we will as we're up about $12 on the week right now...it will set up an interesting week next. Why? As you can see below, since this brutal smashdown scheme began last autumn, gold has never had three, consecutive UP weeks. Would a third week next be a conclusive sign of a bottom? Of course not! It would, however, be another positive signal that we are getting very close. With August13 option expiry next Thursday, anything is possible. Given the overall bearish sentiment and Spec Short market control, there exists a pretty good opportunity for The Cartel to squeeze some of those who have sold the $1300+ calls. We'll see...

There's not much to discuss in silver at this moment. It's still being held below $20 and its chart doesn't look as interesting as gold's. The next bit of excitement will come when price finally encounters the top of the channel again. Can/will it break out or will it simply drop lower again? WTFK but we should get an answer in a week or two.

GOFO rates were stable today but still deeply negative for a record-shattering tenth day in a row. As mentioned above, Aug13 option expiry is next Thursday and FND is on the 31st. The negative GOFO rates and the sharply declining Comex stocks would seem to indicate that the next few weeks are going to be interesting, to say the least. Jesse offers an excellent summation here. I suggest you read it. https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/07/comex-registered-gold-fall-to-another.html

(Remember, "eligible" or "total" gold is simply the unallocated gold held in the vaults. To be deliverable, the gold must be classified as "registered". As of last evening, total Registered gold at the Comex fell to 29.56 metric tonnes. This is enough gold to physically deliver just 9,504 contracts in August.)

A few words on crude here, which is kickin-ass-and-takin-names, much to the bewilderment of many. For example, there's this complete idiot who somehow achieved contributor status at ZeroHedge. I'm not sure this guy could find his ass with both hands and the recent movement in crude has him all aflutter. https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-07-18/gasoline-supplies-highest-july-period-1992

Look, this isn't complicated. Since the overthrow of the Egyptian government two weeks ago, crude has risen over $10. Why? The Muslim Brotherhood is the parent organization of nearly every terrorist group in the MENA. Taking power in Egypt was the culmination of 80+ years of effort. They ain't gonna take their forced removal quietly. Already, a completely overlooked and unreported WAR is taking place in the Sinai Peninsula. If you failed World Geography back in school, you might want to take a look at this map:

Crude is rallying because of realistic fears of supply disruption. Remember, what does one do in a futures market if one is concerned about future supply issues? You hedge and lock in price and delivery today by buying a futures contract. More buyers than sellers mean higher prices. Period. And here we are.

The Big Question is: What happens next? We're already seeing some downside volatility today:

Did President Milhous send out some cronies to plant the predictable rumors of Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases in a pathetic attempt to talk down price? If not today, they'll try that oft-repeated trick soon, of that you can be certain. Regardless, I've told you for months that there need be no concern over Hot War in the MENA until and unless crude makes a sustained move through $100. Well, here we are. What happens next is anyone's guess but, if crude bursts through the early 2011 highs of $114, watch out! And get your ass out of The Middle East!!

Finally, today, we've got to talk about this: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-18/jobs-number-bs-says-former-head-bls.

And here's the source link to read, too: https://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/bls_number_is_bs_jaKS2Nc8Yu2TrnETK2bXEM

We talk about LIES and MOPE and SPIN all the time here. Maybe you, my dear reader, think that I'm the one who is full of it. That I'm the one who lies and spins. Well, I submit to you the information above.

Understand this: Keith Hall was, from 2008 to 2012, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the BLS. The Head Honcho. The Big Cheese. If anybody is going to know the inner working of the BLS, it's this guy. And what does he say in the article above? That's it's all bullshit. (Thus the justification for our term "BLSBS".) Hall explains as much right here:

“Right now [it’s] misleadingly low,” says Hall, who believes a truer reading of those now wanting a job but without one to be more than 10 percent.
The fly in the ointment is the BLS employment-to-population ratio, which is currently at 58.7 percent. “It’s lower than it was when the recession ended. I think that’s a remarkable statistic,” says Hall, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va.
That level tells Hall the real unemployment rate is actually about 3 percentage points higher than the BLS number. If the jobless rate is unacceptable at 7.6 percent, it’d be shockingly bad if he is right and the true rate is 10.6 percent."

If the "unemployment rate" was actually reported at 10.6% instead of 7.6%, what would be the status of:

  • The treasury market and interest rates
  • The stock market
  • QE "taper"
  • Milhous' approval rating
  • Congress' approval rating

You see, it's all lies! The actual data doesn't matter, just make up a number and have CNBS report it. It's all good and the music plays a little bit longer. But the Day of Reckoning is coming. Like any other human endeavor, you can lie and cheat your way through life for a while...but eventually it catches up with you and it all comes crashing down. Will The End come next week or next month? Hell, I don't know. If I've learned anything these past four years it's that I should never underestimate the power of TPTB to extend and pretend their way to a maintenance of their power. With the politicians, bureaucrats and media in your corner, you're bound to have temporary success in avoiding reality. But this will end and, when it does, you're going to be grateful for every ounce of physical gold and silver you have in your possession. These last nine months of contrived Bullion Bank scheming will be a long-forgotten memory.

Have a great weekend.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  402 Comments

  Refresh
SilverSurfers
Jul 21, 2013 - 6:53pm

The Big Question

We stand at the threshold of totalitarian-Socialism, but it will not last, it will snap, so what is the outcome? Freedom, Economic Collapse, Civil War, Total Anarchy, or Totalitarian Stalinism? You make the call.

Today, the most fundamental question of all was posed to USA.

Will A Lincoln’s December 2nd 1862, last hope of earth implode into ruination ala Alex de Toucqueville, or do we see the light and implement the solutions now presented before your eyes.

https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/07/20/space-time_event_horizon_detection.thtml
https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/07/20/bill_oreilly_blames_congress.thtml
https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/07/16/libereen_invitation_to_rove_and_ingraham.thtml
https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/07/17/usa_wall_street_and_2016_presidency.thtml
https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/07/04/2016_presidential_bid,_hat_in_the_ring.thtml
https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/07/06/usa_should_rally_to_libertarian-green_banner.thtml

Proposed First Cut of Administration:

Derrick Michael Reid President (Libertarian Green Peace Real Monetarialist)
Rand Paul would make a good Vice President (Libertarian)
Karl Rove would made a good Chief of Staff (Republican)
Laura Ingraham would make a good Press Secretary (Republican)
Dianne Finestein would make a good Secretary of State (Democrat)
Loretta Sanchez would make a good Treasury Secretary (Democrat)
William Black would make a good Attorney General (Independent) I like the beard actually.
Martin E Dempsey Secretary Dept of Defense (Independent)
Johathan Greenert Chairman Joint Chief of Staff (Independent)
Donald Trump Dept of Commerce (Republican)
XX Dept of Education (Democrat most likely)
XX Dept of Transportation (Republican most likely)
XX Dept of Housing and Urban Development (Democrat most likely)
XX Dept of Labor (Republican most likely)
XX Dept of Homeland Security (NRA qualified ranking member most likely)
XX Dept of the Interior (Green Peace qualified ranking member most likely)
XX Chairman of the Federal Reserve (OWS qualified ranking member most likely)

US Black Caucus I am a populace running for president 2016 trying to put together a dream team. Racists are not welcomed. Please kindly provide me the best you got for the following 4 positions. Thanks You Derrick Michael Reid XX Dept of Education (Democrat most likely)
XX Dept of Transportation (Republican most likely)
XX Dept of Housing and Urban Development (Democrat most likely)
XX Dept of Labor (Republican most likely)
bucktooth
Jul 21, 2013 - 6:48pm

kingbee4

I wasn't aware that the data was one members personal opinion. Still, for a rule of thumb, the 10 oz of au and 500 ag, to me, seems to be a reasonable target. Some people may think it is to much, others not enough, and others that the mix is off.

Bucktooth Bank : Not a member of FDIC

cavalier
Jul 21, 2013 - 6:44pm

Silver up 2 per cent; Gold up 1.5 per cent

Good move for gold and silver.

while the after hours or really before hours frequently fluctuate,

it's a nice move for now.

Kcap
Jul 21, 2013 - 6:43pm

@dstage

Not sure whoever wrote that understands the meaning of "false flag".

Kcap

dgstage
Jul 21, 2013 - 6:42pm
sebo
Jul 21, 2013 - 6:36pm

FROM THE NEFARIUM

including high octane speculation on creating metals via cold fusion (starting around 14:00 min)

NEWS AND VIEWS FROM THE NEFARIUM JULY 18 2013
Sad-descent
Jul 21, 2013 - 6:34pm

Re: Gold open

Kind of odd to have that big a jump right out of the gate isn't it. Asia hasn't opened yet.

Zoltan
Jul 21, 2013 - 6:33pm

Weird ND Open

Still visible on the silver one minute tick chart.

Ticks at 15:00, 15:02 then starting at 15:07. Maybe some one could capture it? (sorry don't know how or would do it myself).

Nothing to see here though, please move along. /s

Nice to see some price action to the upside.

On the JPM fire story seems to be a few things that were not quite right. No police at all (I know that they were busy with the TM rallies but still a big fire/rescue response like that and not one cop car?) fireman not doing much, no smoke, questions as to where the fire was in relation to the vault. I think that video was current due to the Zimmerman reference and the way people were dressed. Also that blogger has a history and it was a recent post by him.

Guess we will find out soon enough if we have a "force manure" this week (1000 hat tips to the Turdite who coined that gem).

Z

DirkDirkler
Jul 21, 2013 - 6:31pm

Look who's

short covering.

Mickey
Jul 21, 2013 - 6:29pm

Euro asia currency forum

There is one at an inland city in China late September, actually at the hotel I will be at then. I scheduled a trip to China and being there and attending.

have to find out whats happening.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
4/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

Recent Comments

by Texas Sandman, 8 min 51 sec ago
by billhilly, 15 min 25 sec ago
by scoremore, 37 min 7 sec ago
by scoremore, 56 min 2 sec ago
randomness