Distracted

402
Fri, Jul 19, 2013 - 12:34pm

I keep trying to type up this post while at the same time watching The British Open. It's now 10:45 EDT. The British Open is winning.

I don't know why I enjoy watching links golf so much. I think it dates back to when I was a Teenage Turd, ESPN was in its infancy and they used to show old British Open highlights for programming. As an aspiring, young golfer, I found it fascinating. But now it just frustrates me. Why? Eight years ago this fall, my good friend BucketHead (and helluva golfer) died of a brain tumor that I will always blame on his incessant cellphone use. I pledged then that I would soon cross "Golf in Scotland" off of my bucket list. Eight years on and I still haven't pulled it off. Fortunately, I'm still healthy and fit so perhaps next year will be the year. However, the state of the global financial system is far from "healthy". Will The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment continue for another year or is massive change right around the corner? I wish I could say with certainty but I can't. All I can do is prepare...and twist Sweetness' arm for 2014. I need him to come with me so that I can fund my trip with a daily nassau.

I have hope that we are beginning to see a bit of a sea change in gold. Does anyone else sense a "buy the dip" mentality emerging? Since the snapback bounce off of the lows of July 5, gold has been beaten back from $1300 and toward $1270 on three occasions and each of those dips have been bought.

So now here we are, two hours away from closing out our second, consecutive UP week in gold. IF we can hold on...and it looks like we will as we're up about $12 on the week right now...it will set up an interesting week next. Why? As you can see below, since this brutal smashdown scheme began last autumn, gold has never had three, consecutive UP weeks. Would a third week next be a conclusive sign of a bottom? Of course not! It would, however, be another positive signal that we are getting very close. With August13 option expiry next Thursday, anything is possible. Given the overall bearish sentiment and Spec Short market control, there exists a pretty good opportunity for The Cartel to squeeze some of those who have sold the $1300+ calls. We'll see...

There's not much to discuss in silver at this moment. It's still being held below $20 and its chart doesn't look as interesting as gold's. The next bit of excitement will come when price finally encounters the top of the channel again. Can/will it break out or will it simply drop lower again? WTFK but we should get an answer in a week or two.

GOFO rates were stable today but still deeply negative for a record-shattering tenth day in a row. As mentioned above, Aug13 option expiry is next Thursday and FND is on the 31st. The negative GOFO rates and the sharply declining Comex stocks would seem to indicate that the next few weeks are going to be interesting, to say the least. Jesse offers an excellent summation here. I suggest you read it. https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/07/comex-registered-gold-fall-to-another.html

(Remember, "eligible" or "total" gold is simply the unallocated gold held in the vaults. To be deliverable, the gold must be classified as "registered". As of last evening, total Registered gold at the Comex fell to 29.56 metric tonnes. This is enough gold to physically deliver just 9,504 contracts in August.)

A few words on crude here, which is kickin-ass-and-takin-names, much to the bewilderment of many. For example, there's this complete idiot who somehow achieved contributor status at ZeroHedge. I'm not sure this guy could find his ass with both hands and the recent movement in crude has him all aflutter. https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-07-18/gasoline-supplies-highest-july-period-1992

Look, this isn't complicated. Since the overthrow of the Egyptian government two weeks ago, crude has risen over $10. Why? The Muslim Brotherhood is the parent organization of nearly every terrorist group in the MENA. Taking power in Egypt was the culmination of 80+ years of effort. They ain't gonna take their forced removal quietly. Already, a completely overlooked and unreported WAR is taking place in the Sinai Peninsula. If you failed World Geography back in school, you might want to take a look at this map:

Crude is rallying because of realistic fears of supply disruption. Remember, what does one do in a futures market if one is concerned about future supply issues? You hedge and lock in price and delivery today by buying a futures contract. More buyers than sellers mean higher prices. Period. And here we are.

The Big Question is: What happens next? We're already seeing some downside volatility today:

Did President Milhous send out some cronies to plant the predictable rumors of Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases in a pathetic attempt to talk down price? If not today, they'll try that oft-repeated trick soon, of that you can be certain. Regardless, I've told you for months that there need be no concern over Hot War in the MENA until and unless crude makes a sustained move through $100. Well, here we are. What happens next is anyone's guess but, if crude bursts through the early 2011 highs of $114, watch out! And get your ass out of The Middle East!!

Finally, today, we've got to talk about this: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-18/jobs-number-bs-says-former-head-bls.

And here's the source link to read, too: https://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/bls_number_is_bs_jaKS2Nc8Yu2TrnETK2bXEM

We talk about LIES and MOPE and SPIN all the time here. Maybe you, my dear reader, think that I'm the one who is full of it. That I'm the one who lies and spins. Well, I submit to you the information above.

Understand this: Keith Hall was, from 2008 to 2012, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the BLS. The Head Honcho. The Big Cheese. If anybody is going to know the inner working of the BLS, it's this guy. And what does he say in the article above? That's it's all bullshit. (Thus the justification for our term "BLSBS".) Hall explains as much right here:

“Right now [it’s] misleadingly low,” says Hall, who believes a truer reading of those now wanting a job but without one to be more than 10 percent.
The fly in the ointment is the BLS employment-to-population ratio, which is currently at 58.7 percent. “It’s lower than it was when the recession ended. I think that’s a remarkable statistic,” says Hall, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va.
That level tells Hall the real unemployment rate is actually about 3 percentage points higher than the BLS number. If the jobless rate is unacceptable at 7.6 percent, it’d be shockingly bad if he is right and the true rate is 10.6 percent."

If the "unemployment rate" was actually reported at 10.6% instead of 7.6%, what would be the status of:

  • The treasury market and interest rates
  • The stock market
  • QE "taper"
  • Milhous' approval rating
  • Congress' approval rating

You see, it's all lies! The actual data doesn't matter, just make up a number and have CNBS report it. It's all good and the music plays a little bit longer. But the Day of Reckoning is coming. Like any other human endeavor, you can lie and cheat your way through life for a while...but eventually it catches up with you and it all comes crashing down. Will The End come next week or next month? Hell, I don't know. If I've learned anything these past four years it's that I should never underestimate the power of TPTB to extend and pretend their way to a maintenance of their power. With the politicians, bureaucrats and media in your corner, you're bound to have temporary success in avoiding reality. But this will end and, when it does, you're going to be grateful for every ounce of physical gold and silver you have in your possession. These last nine months of contrived Bullion Bank scheming will be a long-forgotten memory.

Have a great weekend.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  402 Comments

AlienEyes
Jul 19, 2013 - 2:57pm

"Buy the Dip."???

Good post, as usual, by the Turd.

I do have one question about a statement contained therein which doesn't make a lick of sense to me.

"Buy the Dip."

I can only assume this to be a reference to the white house spokesperson, Robert Gibbs.

Now why in hell would I invest a cent in something that is already a morally bankrupt devout liar?

Besides, I have utterly no use for the sorry SOB whatsoever. Maybe there is some way to make a mint by buying futures on canine excrement but nobody in their right mind would ever want to take delivery. It's beyond me.

Meanwhile, I will continue to stack PM's but I shall refrain from any speculation in the canine excrement futures market.

tyberious
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:01pm

Not sure if this is true

DEVELOPING: Top NSA and DOJ Officials Have Fled the U.S. - Obama Admin. Files Espionage Charges

In a stunning development, Deputy Director of the NSA, John Inglis, along with Assistant Attorney General, James Cole, have fled the United States after their participation in a contentious congressional meeting on Capitol Hill.

In that meeting, both Inglis and Cole revealed that the depth of NSA spying far surpassed anything that whistleblower Edward Snowden has made public to date. The unauthorized leaks to Congress by Inglis and Cole, which exposed more about NSA spying than anything Snowden has revealed, shook congressional leaders to their core.

https://beforeitsnews.com/alternative/2013/07/top-nsa-and-doj-officials-...
StevenBHorse
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:04pm

Dr J

Your friends are idiots.

neigh

Teach
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:08pm

Dr. Jerome

I just quit after 20 plus years of teaching and am in the process of terminating my pension plan and moving the funds out of the plan. I get about a third in cash, and the other has to remain locked in for 4 more years. Of course the choices in a LIRA are a bit limited. I HATE putting money back into the stock market, but am trying to be as diverse as possible, against my strong feelings about what a steaming pile of corruption and lies we all know it to be. I have only managed to stomach it by putting all of the paper into segregated (principal guaranteed) investment vehicles. I have about a third of my nest egg in pms already, and they will be the very last monetary asset to leave my hands. If I go by pm highs, I've lost aout 1/3 of the fiat value, but like I told my paper pushing advisor, for some reason that never bothers me. I believe in the insurance value, and also in the growth potential...but it sure is tough to hold to your convictions in this day and age. I will be buying more when I get paid out. Keep the faith. We're right...and they are all liars and criminals.

Just A Regular Guy
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:08pm

A Quick Note Regarding Malts!!!

I will quickly add to those that can find "Lark - Cask Strength" (58%, 500mL bottle, I think it's a port finish), I strongly, highly recommend you check it out! It is an AMAZING malt from Tasmania. The head distiller (Bill Lark) I met a few weeks back is a legend, and apparently in the Tasmanian (Australian) whisky industry is a god!
He said to me that majority of their malts get sold in overseas markets, and in particular he mentioned the US of A. So if you can get your hands on some, do yourself a favour if you're a whisky guy/gal, and get some! Remember to mix in some water with the malt, however, to open it up (as it is cask strength).

Peace

Howard Roark
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:16pm

@tyberious

That being true maybe the flag to something happening. But needs some checkin´ , right?

Let´s keep searching.

Salut,

HR

SilverTree
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:16pm

@tyberious

It reads like a play on Snowden. Not real.

SE tyberious
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:24pm

@ Tyberious

https://www.leap2020.eu/

-------------------------------

404'ed. Not there. What's going on? If we're going to take that long to purge the criminals, then we'd better get started NOW. Start organizing teams, because every financial office in every city is going to have to be taken down. I'm talking the guilty bankers, of course. If riots start breaking out, BE SURE that their attention is directed towards the financials, not at each other. The goal for TPTB is to get the rioters kill each other, to reduce the potential for revolution through sheer numbers. Rioters need to be turned against TPTB instead.

Get busy, Tyberious.

Hunt brother
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:24pm

The Bears are Snared in a Merciless Trap. Enjoy Your Weekend!

Leann Rimes - Amazing Grace - YouTube

► 3:55► 3:55 www.youtube.com/watch?v=joBxjfyGWM8 Apr 8, 2009 - Uploaded by naatvanzoest Lyrics - Amazing Grace Amazing grace! How sweet the sound That saved a wretch like me! I ...
Wallace Hartley
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:27pm

Turd - What's Up With Silver Lease Rates?

Just saw that the 1-year silver lease rate collapsed today (it was .1472% 2 days ago and today it's .0509%...a drop of 65%!?!?!). Any precedent/implication(s) related to that type of plunge? Your insight, as always, is appreciated.

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