Distracted

402
Fri, Jul 19, 2013 - 12:34pm

I keep trying to type up this post while at the same time watching The British Open. It's now 10:45 EDT. The British Open is winning.

I don't know why I enjoy watching links golf so much. I think it dates back to when I was a Teenage Turd, ESPN was in its infancy and they used to show old British Open highlights for programming. As an aspiring, young golfer, I found it fascinating. But now it just frustrates me. Why? Eight years ago this fall, my good friend BucketHead (and helluva golfer) died of a brain tumor that I will always blame on his incessant cellphone use. I pledged then that I would soon cross "Golf in Scotland" off of my bucket list. Eight years on and I still haven't pulled it off. Fortunately, I'm still healthy and fit so perhaps next year will be the year. However, the state of the global financial system is far from "healthy". Will The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment continue for another year or is massive change right around the corner? I wish I could say with certainty but I can't. All I can do is prepare...and twist Sweetness' arm for 2014. I need him to come with me so that I can fund my trip with a daily nassau.

I have hope that we are beginning to see a bit of a sea change in gold. Does anyone else sense a "buy the dip" mentality emerging? Since the snapback bounce off of the lows of July 5, gold has been beaten back from $1300 and toward $1270 on three occasions and each of those dips have been bought.

So now here we are, two hours away from closing out our second, consecutive UP week in gold. IF we can hold on...and it looks like we will as we're up about $12 on the week right now...it will set up an interesting week next. Why? As you can see below, since this brutal smashdown scheme began last autumn, gold has never had three, consecutive UP weeks. Would a third week next be a conclusive sign of a bottom? Of course not! It would, however, be another positive signal that we are getting very close. With August13 option expiry next Thursday, anything is possible. Given the overall bearish sentiment and Spec Short market control, there exists a pretty good opportunity for The Cartel to squeeze some of those who have sold the $1300+ calls. We'll see...

There's not much to discuss in silver at this moment. It's still being held below $20 and its chart doesn't look as interesting as gold's. The next bit of excitement will come when price finally encounters the top of the channel again. Can/will it break out or will it simply drop lower again? WTFK but we should get an answer in a week or two.

GOFO rates were stable today but still deeply negative for a record-shattering tenth day in a row. As mentioned above, Aug13 option expiry is next Thursday and FND is on the 31st. The negative GOFO rates and the sharply declining Comex stocks would seem to indicate that the next few weeks are going to be interesting, to say the least. Jesse offers an excellent summation here. I suggest you read it. https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/07/comex-registered-gold-fall-to-another.html

(Remember, "eligible" or "total" gold is simply the unallocated gold held in the vaults. To be deliverable, the gold must be classified as "registered". As of last evening, total Registered gold at the Comex fell to 29.56 metric tonnes. This is enough gold to physically deliver just 9,504 contracts in August.)

A few words on crude here, which is kickin-ass-and-takin-names, much to the bewilderment of many. For example, there's this complete idiot who somehow achieved contributor status at ZeroHedge. I'm not sure this guy could find his ass with both hands and the recent movement in crude has him all aflutter. https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-07-18/gasoline-supplies-highest-july-period-1992

Look, this isn't complicated. Since the overthrow of the Egyptian government two weeks ago, crude has risen over $10. Why? The Muslim Brotherhood is the parent organization of nearly every terrorist group in the MENA. Taking power in Egypt was the culmination of 80+ years of effort. They ain't gonna take their forced removal quietly. Already, a completely overlooked and unreported WAR is taking place in the Sinai Peninsula. If you failed World Geography back in school, you might want to take a look at this map:

Crude is rallying because of realistic fears of supply disruption. Remember, what does one do in a futures market if one is concerned about future supply issues? You hedge and lock in price and delivery today by buying a futures contract. More buyers than sellers mean higher prices. Period. And here we are.

The Big Question is: What happens next? We're already seeing some downside volatility today:

Did President Milhous send out some cronies to plant the predictable rumors of Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases in a pathetic attempt to talk down price? If not today, they'll try that oft-repeated trick soon, of that you can be certain. Regardless, I've told you for months that there need be no concern over Hot War in the MENA until and unless crude makes a sustained move through $100. Well, here we are. What happens next is anyone's guess but, if crude bursts through the early 2011 highs of $114, watch out! And get your ass out of The Middle East!!

Finally, today, we've got to talk about this: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-18/jobs-number-bs-says-former-head-bls.

And here's the source link to read, too: https://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/bls_number_is_bs_jaKS2Nc8Yu2TrnETK2bXEM

We talk about LIES and MOPE and SPIN all the time here. Maybe you, my dear reader, think that I'm the one who is full of it. That I'm the one who lies and spins. Well, I submit to you the information above.

Understand this: Keith Hall was, from 2008 to 2012, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the BLS. The Head Honcho. The Big Cheese. If anybody is going to know the inner working of the BLS, it's this guy. And what does he say in the article above? That's it's all bullshit. (Thus the justification for our term "BLSBS".) Hall explains as much right here:

“Right now [it’s] misleadingly low,” says Hall, who believes a truer reading of those now wanting a job but without one to be more than 10 percent.
The fly in the ointment is the BLS employment-to-population ratio, which is currently at 58.7 percent. “It’s lower than it was when the recession ended. I think that’s a remarkable statistic,” says Hall, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va.
That level tells Hall the real unemployment rate is actually about 3 percentage points higher than the BLS number. If the jobless rate is unacceptable at 7.6 percent, it’d be shockingly bad if he is right and the true rate is 10.6 percent."

If the "unemployment rate" was actually reported at 10.6% instead of 7.6%, what would be the status of:

  • The treasury market and interest rates
  • The stock market
  • QE "taper"
  • Milhous' approval rating
  • Congress' approval rating

You see, it's all lies! The actual data doesn't matter, just make up a number and have CNBS report it. It's all good and the music plays a little bit longer. But the Day of Reckoning is coming. Like any other human endeavor, you can lie and cheat your way through life for a while...but eventually it catches up with you and it all comes crashing down. Will The End come next week or next month? Hell, I don't know. If I've learned anything these past four years it's that I should never underestimate the power of TPTB to extend and pretend their way to a maintenance of their power. With the politicians, bureaucrats and media in your corner, you're bound to have temporary success in avoiding reality. But this will end and, when it does, you're going to be grateful for every ounce of physical gold and silver you have in your possession. These last nine months of contrived Bullion Bank scheming will be a long-forgotten memory.

Have a great weekend.

TF

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  402 Comments

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Spicoli
Jul 21, 2013 - 9:49pm

Here's my silver chart..

This wedge has been working for some time now. I'm wondering if we'll see the price break higher in the next 24hrs.And gold has now broken out of it's wedge.

tmosley
Jul 21, 2013 - 9:44pm

@Goldmania: If I am reading

@Goldmania:

If I am reading your post right, he said 10%, right?

Cause JPM is a lot higher than that in silver.

Willy
Jul 21, 2013 - 9:23pm

Nice!

Gold up $20.30. Yes we r getting giddy for sure! Why not it's been months of depressing hits so when the sun shines you might as well dance right?

opticsguy
Jul 21, 2013 - 9:22pm

Looks like we'll get one more X tomorrow

possible resistance at 1340 and change.

Kcap
Jul 21, 2013 - 9:13pm

@ T

Blah blah blah, blah blah, blah blah blah.....

BLAH.

Thanks,

Kcap

T
Jul 21, 2013 - 9:09pm

it always feels funny

at moments like this, when we saw last week the cartel holding the line capping at 1300 gold all week..... only to see this blast to open asia blew past 1300 like it wasnt even there , to hit 1317.....doesnt seem right to me.

If this had happened at london or new york open I'd call it a pop and drop whipsaw set up. maybe we'll see the whipsaw soon. or maybe tomorow in new york or something.

In any case, technically, the short attack zone is right here between 1300 and the 50 MA at 1335 area. If the cartel is still able to slam the metal down, this is the technical zone.

Miners should correspond ,whenever they hit the same technical top zone. and should get slammed back down.

The 50 MA seems to be the marker.

The Elliott wave count also coincides , as it makes the 5th (sub)wave to completion now ,completing the upwave, and the target top zone....as a wave 1 (or wave A) completion off the bottom (june 28)

so the pullback time is now (pricewise) allowing for sideways a few days, its in a zone,..... and the target down is a retest of the june 28 bottom with fibonnacci points as targets along the way.

These next few weeks would be looking very important for telling which way miners and metals will go as summer turns into fall.

watch the pullback this coming week(or next) and whether it holds support above the june 28 low.

then watch whether the bullish wave holds at support ....AND....makes another upwave to higher highs than today.... that would be the bullish price action over the next few weeks.(But even if we see another upwave to take gold lets say from 1260 up to 1350 area, That could be called an ABC (correction rally, a bear bounce, and we could see another short attack take gold back to retest the (june 28) bottom zone. i.e. the whole zone from 1300-1360 gold is a resistance zone where price could get slammed back down. to retest the bottom zone.

the bearish action would see failure to make higher highs, failure to hold support in this pullback, and a target hit at new lower lows below June 28.

SaratogaPrepper
Jul 21, 2013 - 8:51pm

right

again

Weasel Tracker
Jul 21, 2013 - 8:50pm
Salisbury House
Jul 21, 2013 - 8:44pm

A lot of very giddy gold bugs

A lot of very giddy gold bugs on the various boards tonight. That worries me. Keep seeing this song posted everywhere, I think it's the kiss of death:

Looks Like We Made It
Bollocks
Jul 21, 2013 - 8:41pm

Turdle GG

Agreed, London is where a lot of financial crime is funneled through.

JP Morgan appear to be trying to increase their visible presence in the UK. Few people here have heard of them even though they have always held major control over the banking sector in the UK.

Why this sudden push to place their name into the awareness of the sheeple?

Is it to try and establish their name in the UK as one of the "good" guys? Via sponsorship of one of the most adored british sports?

More MOPE?

I think so.

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