Distracted

402
Fri, Jul 19, 2013 - 12:34pm

I keep trying to type up this post while at the same time watching The British Open. It's now 10:45 EDT. The British Open is winning.

I don't know why I enjoy watching links golf so much. I think it dates back to when I was a Teenage Turd, ESPN was in its infancy and they used to show old British Open highlights for programming. As an aspiring, young golfer, I found it fascinating. But now it just frustrates me. Why? Eight years ago this fall, my good friend BucketHead (and helluva golfer) died of a brain tumor that I will always blame on his incessant cellphone use. I pledged then that I would soon cross "Golf in Scotland" off of my bucket list. Eight years on and I still haven't pulled it off. Fortunately, I'm still healthy and fit so perhaps next year will be the year. However, the state of the global financial system is far from "healthy". Will The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment continue for another year or is massive change right around the corner? I wish I could say with certainty but I can't. All I can do is prepare...and twist Sweetness' arm for 2014. I need him to come with me so that I can fund my trip with a daily nassau.

I have hope that we are beginning to see a bit of a sea change in gold. Does anyone else sense a "buy the dip" mentality emerging? Since the snapback bounce off of the lows of July 5, gold has been beaten back from $1300 and toward $1270 on three occasions and each of those dips have been bought.

So now here we are, two hours away from closing out our second, consecutive UP week in gold. IF we can hold on...and it looks like we will as we're up about $12 on the week right now...it will set up an interesting week next. Why? As you can see below, since this brutal smashdown scheme began last autumn, gold has never had three, consecutive UP weeks. Would a third week next be a conclusive sign of a bottom? Of course not! It would, however, be another positive signal that we are getting very close. With August13 option expiry next Thursday, anything is possible. Given the overall bearish sentiment and Spec Short market control, there exists a pretty good opportunity for The Cartel to squeeze some of those who have sold the $1300+ calls. We'll see...

There's not much to discuss in silver at this moment. It's still being held below $20 and its chart doesn't look as interesting as gold's. The next bit of excitement will come when price finally encounters the top of the channel again. Can/will it break out or will it simply drop lower again? WTFK but we should get an answer in a week or two.

GOFO rates were stable today but still deeply negative for a record-shattering tenth day in a row. As mentioned above, Aug13 option expiry is next Thursday and FND is on the 31st. The negative GOFO rates and the sharply declining Comex stocks would seem to indicate that the next few weeks are going to be interesting, to say the least. Jesse offers an excellent summation here. I suggest you read it. https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/07/comex-registered-gold-fall-to-another.html

(Remember, "eligible" or "total" gold is simply the unallocated gold held in the vaults. To be deliverable, the gold must be classified as "registered". As of last evening, total Registered gold at the Comex fell to 29.56 metric tonnes. This is enough gold to physically deliver just 9,504 contracts in August.)

A few words on crude here, which is kickin-ass-and-takin-names, much to the bewilderment of many. For example, there's this complete idiot who somehow achieved contributor status at ZeroHedge. I'm not sure this guy could find his ass with both hands and the recent movement in crude has him all aflutter. https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-07-18/gasoline-supplies-highest-july-period-1992

Look, this isn't complicated. Since the overthrow of the Egyptian government two weeks ago, crude has risen over $10. Why? The Muslim Brotherhood is the parent organization of nearly every terrorist group in the MENA. Taking power in Egypt was the culmination of 80+ years of effort. They ain't gonna take their forced removal quietly. Already, a completely overlooked and unreported WAR is taking place in the Sinai Peninsula. If you failed World Geography back in school, you might want to take a look at this map:

Crude is rallying because of realistic fears of supply disruption. Remember, what does one do in a futures market if one is concerned about future supply issues? You hedge and lock in price and delivery today by buying a futures contract. More buyers than sellers mean higher prices. Period. And here we are.

The Big Question is: What happens next? We're already seeing some downside volatility today:

Did President Milhous send out some cronies to plant the predictable rumors of Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases in a pathetic attempt to talk down price? If not today, they'll try that oft-repeated trick soon, of that you can be certain. Regardless, I've told you for months that there need be no concern over Hot War in the MENA until and unless crude makes a sustained move through $100. Well, here we are. What happens next is anyone's guess but, if crude bursts through the early 2011 highs of $114, watch out! And get your ass out of The Middle East!!

Finally, today, we've got to talk about this: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-18/jobs-number-bs-says-former-head-bls.

And here's the source link to read, too: https://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/bls_number_is_bs_jaKS2Nc8Yu2TrnETK2bXEM

We talk about LIES and MOPE and SPIN all the time here. Maybe you, my dear reader, think that I'm the one who is full of it. That I'm the one who lies and spins. Well, I submit to you the information above.

Understand this: Keith Hall was, from 2008 to 2012, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the BLS. The Head Honcho. The Big Cheese. If anybody is going to know the inner working of the BLS, it's this guy. And what does he say in the article above? That's it's all bullshit. (Thus the justification for our term "BLSBS".) Hall explains as much right here:

“Right now [it’s] misleadingly low,” says Hall, who believes a truer reading of those now wanting a job but without one to be more than 10 percent.
The fly in the ointment is the BLS employment-to-population ratio, which is currently at 58.7 percent. “It’s lower than it was when the recession ended. I think that’s a remarkable statistic,” says Hall, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va.
That level tells Hall the real unemployment rate is actually about 3 percentage points higher than the BLS number. If the jobless rate is unacceptable at 7.6 percent, it’d be shockingly bad if he is right and the true rate is 10.6 percent."

If the "unemployment rate" was actually reported at 10.6% instead of 7.6%, what would be the status of:

  • The treasury market and interest rates
  • The stock market
  • QE "taper"
  • Milhous' approval rating
  • Congress' approval rating

You see, it's all lies! The actual data doesn't matter, just make up a number and have CNBS report it. It's all good and the music plays a little bit longer. But the Day of Reckoning is coming. Like any other human endeavor, you can lie and cheat your way through life for a while...but eventually it catches up with you and it all comes crashing down. Will The End come next week or next month? Hell, I don't know. If I've learned anything these past four years it's that I should never underestimate the power of TPTB to extend and pretend their way to a maintenance of their power. With the politicians, bureaucrats and media in your corner, you're bound to have temporary success in avoiding reality. But this will end and, when it does, you're going to be grateful for every ounce of physical gold and silver you have in your possession. These last nine months of contrived Bullion Bank scheming will be a long-forgotten memory.

Have a great weekend.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  402 Comments

AlienEyes
Jul 19, 2013 - 2:57pm

"Buy the Dip."???

Good post, as usual, by the Turd.

I do have one question about a statement contained therein which doesn't make a lick of sense to me.

"Buy the Dip."

I can only assume this to be a reference to the white house spokesperson, Robert Gibbs.

Now why in hell would I invest a cent in something that is already a morally bankrupt devout liar?

Besides, I have utterly no use for the sorry SOB whatsoever. Maybe there is some way to make a mint by buying futures on canine excrement but nobody in their right mind would ever want to take delivery. It's beyond me.

Meanwhile, I will continue to stack PM's but I shall refrain from any speculation in the canine excrement futures market.

tyberious
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:01pm

Not sure if this is true

DEVELOPING: Top NSA and DOJ Officials Have Fled the U.S. - Obama Admin. Files Espionage Charges

In a stunning development, Deputy Director of the NSA, John Inglis, along with Assistant Attorney General, James Cole, have fled the United States after their participation in a contentious congressional meeting on Capitol Hill.

In that meeting, both Inglis and Cole revealed that the depth of NSA spying far surpassed anything that whistleblower Edward Snowden has made public to date. The unauthorized leaks to Congress by Inglis and Cole, which exposed more about NSA spying than anything Snowden has revealed, shook congressional leaders to their core.

https://beforeitsnews.com/alternative/2013/07/top-nsa-and-doj-officials-...
StevenBHorse
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:04pm

Dr J

Your friends are idiots.

neigh

Teach
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:08pm

Dr. Jerome

I just quit after 20 plus years of teaching and am in the process of terminating my pension plan and moving the funds out of the plan. I get about a third in cash, and the other has to remain locked in for 4 more years. Of course the choices in a LIRA are a bit limited. I HATE putting money back into the stock market, but am trying to be as diverse as possible, against my strong feelings about what a steaming pile of corruption and lies we all know it to be. I have only managed to stomach it by putting all of the paper into segregated (principal guaranteed) investment vehicles. I have about a third of my nest egg in pms already, and they will be the very last monetary asset to leave my hands. If I go by pm highs, I've lost aout 1/3 of the fiat value, but like I told my paper pushing advisor, for some reason that never bothers me. I believe in the insurance value, and also in the growth potential...but it sure is tough to hold to your convictions in this day and age. I will be buying more when I get paid out. Keep the faith. We're right...and they are all liars and criminals.

Just A Regular Guy
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:08pm

A Quick Note Regarding Malts!!!

I will quickly add to those that can find "Lark - Cask Strength" (58%, 500mL bottle, I think it's a port finish), I strongly, highly recommend you check it out! It is an AMAZING malt from Tasmania. The head distiller (Bill Lark) I met a few weeks back is a legend, and apparently in the Tasmanian (Australian) whisky industry is a god!
He said to me that majority of their malts get sold in overseas markets, and in particular he mentioned the US of A. So if you can get your hands on some, do yourself a favour if you're a whisky guy/gal, and get some! Remember to mix in some water with the malt, however, to open it up (as it is cask strength).

Peace

Howard Roark
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:16pm

@tyberious

That being true maybe the flag to something happening. But needs some checkin´ , right?

Let´s keep searching.

Salut,

HR

SilverTree
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:16pm

@tyberious

It reads like a play on Snowden. Not real.

SE tyberious
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:24pm

@ Tyberious

https://www.leap2020.eu/

-------------------------------

404'ed. Not there. What's going on? If we're going to take that long to purge the criminals, then we'd better get started NOW. Start organizing teams, because every financial office in every city is going to have to be taken down. I'm talking the guilty bankers, of course. If riots start breaking out, BE SURE that their attention is directed towards the financials, not at each other. The goal for TPTB is to get the rioters kill each other, to reduce the potential for revolution through sheer numbers. Rioters need to be turned against TPTB instead.

Get busy, Tyberious.

Hunt brother
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:24pm

The Bears are Snared in a Merciless Trap. Enjoy Your Weekend!

Leann Rimes - Amazing Grace - YouTube

► 3:55► 3:55 www.youtube.com/watch?v=joBxjfyGWM8 Apr 8, 2009 - Uploaded by naatvanzoest Lyrics - Amazing Grace Amazing grace! How sweet the sound That saved a wretch like me! I ...
Wallace Hartley
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:27pm

Turd - What's Up With Silver Lease Rates?

Just saw that the 1-year silver lease rate collapsed today (it was .1472% 2 days ago and today it's .0509%...a drop of 65%!?!?!). Any precedent/implication(s) related to that type of plunge? Your insight, as always, is appreciated.


Jul 19, 2013 - 3:27pm

John Inglis & James Cole story a hoax/parody

from the Daily Kos:

Amusing, slightly, but alas not (yet) true.

"9:16 pm - David Gregory has asked this evening whether congressional leaders, who asked the questions that led to Inglis and Cole's whistle-blowing, should be arrested.

"It was just a question," Gregory Tweeted after coming under fire for suggesting U.S. legislators be jailed for doing their jobs. "I was just echoing what others were wondering."

9:03 pm - After rumours began swirling that Inglis and Cole were aboard a plane with the President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, several European nations closed off their airspace and forced Nazarbayev's twin-engine aircraft to land in a field in Lithuania.

"We have not been this humiliated since that Jew Borat's movie!" screamed Nazarbayev after Lithuanian officials announced Inglis and Cole were not aboard the president's plane."

Wallace Hartley
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:36pm

I thought "official" silver

I thought "official" silver lease rates were no longer published as of late last year. Maybe ask Zoltan?


Jul 19, 2013 - 3:36pm
Big Dutch
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:37pm

GDX

A few days ago I mentioned to Willy that the max pain point for GDX options was $26. Yesterday I saw it was well over a buck below that and I thought longgggg and hardddd about buying just a couple grand in $25 calls. Ultimately decided not to.

Yep, could have tripled my money, but yesterday a 4%+ climb seemed so unlikely. Options expirations. Gotta love em.

Bohemian
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:37pm

Sprott: The Shanghai Gold Surprise

The Shanghai Gold Surprise
by David Baker (dbaker[at]sprott[dot]com) and David Franklin (dfranklin[at]sprott[dot]com)

The physical gold market continues to develop in the most wonderfully counterintuitive way. While the paper gold price languishes below US$1,300 per ounce, physical demand out of China is now reaching previously unforeseen levels. If you’ve heard this story before, it’s more of the same, except that the demand tonnage is now so high as to be almost comical.

According to data released by the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the amount of gold contracts settled for physical delivery on its exchange reached a staggering 1,098 metric tonnes year-to-date as of the end of June.1 This is an astoundingly large amount of physical gold. For perspective, 1,098 tonnes represents approximately 40% of the entire estimated global gold mine production in 2013. It also represents roughly 1/8th of the US Treasury’s official gold reserves, and over 100% of China’s stated official gold reserves. If the rate of physical delivery on the Shanghai Gold Exchange continues at current levels, it will deliver the equivalent of over 100% of global mine production by the end of this year… all through one exchange.

In contrast, the COMEX futures exchange in New York, where the bulk of US gold futures are traded, saw a measly 160.7 tonnes of physical delivery requests over the same period (year-to-date to June).2 Although the paper volume on the COMEX dwarfs that of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the level of physical delivery requests is only 15% of that seen in Shanghai....

See his daily letters... This one came in 30 min ago.


Jul 19, 2013 - 3:39pm

Lousy CoT

Though that JakeBlues guy would have been encouraged by the action of the silver Large Specs.

More later.

hai
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:41pm
Swineflogger
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:52pm
DirkDirkler
Jul 19, 2013 - 3:53pm

COT slightly less bullish for

COT slightly less bullish for silver. Slightly.

And also boring. Very very boring. Almost no changes now for a month.

Cleburne61
Jul 19, 2013 - 4:16pm

Source of 90%

Some have asked "if this 90% silver is truly rare, and they aren't making anymore of it....where does it come from?"

This is an easy one. 90% dries up first when retail product is scarce, thusly it's the first to experience elevated premiums, even before generic 1 oz rounds.

Because this is true, dealers like Apmex(Jake used to have a chart on it) offer stackers a substantial premium above spot in order to lure out a steady line of sellers. During the previous smack downs at one point, Apmex was offering I think over $2.50 above spot.

Now, if you're sitting on a mountain of 90% coins, and 1 oz rounds can still be sourced for $1 to 1.50 over spot, retail....while you can sell yours for near $3 over spot....you've got yourself a nice little arbitrage play going there. It's the way a free market is supposed to work, you offer folks who have what you want a better price for it....brings it out every time.

As far as not fighting the Fed....as I saw the esteemed Jerome post on, I believe, my question to anyone out there who insists they don't wish to fight the Fed is: how is that humanly possible, since the Fed is playing both sides of every trade?

For instance, the Fed is inflating the currency and credit pools.....ok, so you buy precious metals, because you don't wish to fight that. But how can that work, if the Fed is also dumping sovereign paper sell orders on the London fixes and in early comex trading?

Or, say you see that the Fed is holding down interest rates and you wish to buy treasuries since you realize the Fed is boxed in and must stay the course? How does that work when the Fed continually has to talk up the USD and talk down commodities from the launch pad in order to maintain the fragile faux economy? Japanese stock traders who bought the Nikkei even at 15,000 probably still shudder when they hear the word "taper".

As for me, I invest for a day the Fed won't be a going concern, and is powerless to do anything any longer. I don't know what day that day is....and frankly I don't need to. I don't allocate my capital based on what the Fed does, but what the world must look like without them as a determiner in the picture.

Howard Roark
Jul 19, 2013 - 4:36pm

Absolutely distracted

I just found (in a friend´s blog - a portuguese one) a big pearl. But why there is not a single journalist that confronts Obottom with his words about Detroit some nine months ago???

See the wonderful clown Obottom in an operation of mesmerize the US citizen... it´s just evil in action. See at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSq1liENXQs

Pure evil. And extend to the economic realm...

Keep strong,

HR

The Watchman
Jul 19, 2013 - 4:48pm

From ZH-Big Gold Problems For JPM

JPM Eligible Gold Plummets By 66% In One Day To Just Over 1 Tonne, Total Gold At Fresh All Time Low Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/19/2013 16:31 -0400



For over a month, JPMorgan managed to mysteriously avoid matching up the gold held in its (world's largest) vault with the Comex delivery notice update. However, as of today, that particular can will be kicked no more. Starting yesterday, JPM reported that just under 12,000 ounces of Eligible gold (the same Registered gold that two days earlier saw its warrants detached and convert to eligible) were withdrawn from its warehouse 100 feet below CMP 1. But it was today's move that was the kicker, as a whopping 90,311 ounces of eligible gold were withdrawn, accounting for a massive 66% of the firm's entire inventory of non-Registered gold, and leaving a token 46K ounces, or a little over 1 tonne in JPM's possession.

dgstage
Jul 19, 2013 - 4:54pm

JPM Eligible Gold Drops

JPM Eligible Gold Plummets By 66% In One Day To Just Over 1 Tonne, Total Gold At Fresh All Time Low

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-19/jpm-eligible-gold-plummets-66-...

Edit

Sorry Watchman. I was linking the same time you were/

The Watchman
Jul 19, 2013 - 4:55pm

GLD Continues to be DRAINED-2.71 Tonnes Gone

Tonnes932.46

Ounces29,979,632.96

Value US$38,834,773,784.60

zman
Jul 19, 2013 - 5:09pm

JPM

What does the JPM gold news really mean, if anything? This news is available for everyone to see, why no reaction in price?


Jul 19, 2013 - 5:09pm

HOLY COW!

If you are holding "gold" in an unallocated account at JPM, you would appear to be screwed, glued and tattooed.

They still hold a decent amount of registered gold but the unallocated, eligible stuff is now down to just 46,000 ounces...that's just 460 contracts worth or 1.4 metric tonnes.

Remember ABN AMRO and, more recently Rabobank (https://www.silverdoctors.com/second-dutch-bank-to-follow-abn-amro-close-gold-accounts/)? It sure looks like JPM is about to go the same route!!

dnlward Howard Roark
Jul 19, 2013 - 5:53pm

Distracted

In the context of that speech, by 'Detroit', he clearly meant the automakers. No conspiracy needed.

Bollocks
Jul 19, 2013 - 5:54pm

Holy Cow indeed!

JPM are about as healthy as...

meegoreng1
Jul 19, 2013 - 5:58pm

@Turd

Whatever happened to that Jakesblues guy?

While I look forward to yours every week, I miss his interpretations of COT reports!

Reply to Lousy COT.

SilverSurfers
Jul 19, 2013 - 6:15pm

1st Turn

JPM Long Gold (June 16 Ferguson ) Week Ending June 30, Demanding JPM go long Silver (June 22 Mad5Hatter). Gold 1192 Silver 18.61 (June 28 Kitco) The COT strongly indicates a rally. (July 3 tyberious) LIFT OFF call (July 3 Mad5Hatter). Seasonals suggest end of August take off. (July 8, Mad5Hatter) COT Flip Bullion Banks net long.(July 10 Ferguson). JPM is Hording Silver (July 11 Ferguson) The jig is up (July 12 Murphy)

Post Time 6/30/13: and there they go, mad5Hatter calling the race.
Sham-JPM Farce-BHO Clown-FED Comedian-BSB Coupon-FRN BankNote-GBP Gold-AGE Silver-ASE

July 1 19.65 July 2 19.38 July 3 19.72 July 5 18.90 Coming out of the Gate, Sham has an early lead by a head, Farce is in 2nd by a 1/2 length, Clown and Comedian running 3rd and 4th by a full length, next is Coupon and BankNote in 5th and 6th by a 1/4 length, with Gold and Silver trailing the pack.

July 8 19.07 July 9 19.26 July 10 19.45 July 11 20.15 July 12 19.91 Down the back Stretch, Sham opens lead by 1/1 length, Farce 1/4 length ahead of Comedian moving into 3rd by a head over Clown 4th a length ahead of Coupon, BankNote, Gold, Silver bunching up in 5th 6th 7th 8th.

July 15 19.92 July 16 20.01 July 17 19.28 July 18 19.37 July 19 19.52 Coming into the first Turn, Sham still leads by a length, Farce dropping Comedian fading tied with Clown 2nd 3rd 4th a length ahead of Coupon, BankNote, Gold, Silver bunched in 5th 6th 7th 8th.

The Hollies - On a Carousel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsSgduJrZXs

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 3/25

3/26 8:30 ET Housing Starts (Feb)
3/27 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Jan)
3/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP final guess
3/28 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Personal Income (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Consumer Spending and Core Infl. (Jan)
3/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
3/29 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Feb)

Recent Comments

by cashonly, Apr 19, 2019 - 4:15pm
by canary, Apr 19, 2019 - 4:14pm
by Blythesshrink, Apr 19, 2019 - 3:47pm
by AgAuMan, Apr 19, 2019 - 1:42pm