Distracted

402
Fri, Jul 19, 2013 - 12:34pm

I keep trying to type up this post while at the same time watching The British Open. It's now 10:45 EDT. The British Open is winning.

I don't know why I enjoy watching links golf so much. I think it dates back to when I was a Teenage Turd, ESPN was in its infancy and they used to show old British Open highlights for programming. As an aspiring, young golfer, I found it fascinating. But now it just frustrates me. Why? Eight years ago this fall, my good friend BucketHead (and helluva golfer) died of a brain tumor that I will always blame on his incessant cellphone use. I pledged then that I would soon cross "Golf in Scotland" off of my bucket list. Eight years on and I still haven't pulled it off. Fortunately, I'm still healthy and fit so perhaps next year will be the year. However, the state of the global financial system is far from "healthy". Will The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment continue for another year or is massive change right around the corner? I wish I could say with certainty but I can't. All I can do is prepare...and twist Sweetness' arm for 2014. I need him to come with me so that I can fund my trip with a daily nassau.

I have hope that we are beginning to see a bit of a sea change in gold. Does anyone else sense a "buy the dip" mentality emerging? Since the snapback bounce off of the lows of July 5, gold has been beaten back from $1300 and toward $1270 on three occasions and each of those dips have been bought.

So now here we are, two hours away from closing out our second, consecutive UP week in gold. IF we can hold on...and it looks like we will as we're up about $12 on the week right now...it will set up an interesting week next. Why? As you can see below, since this brutal smashdown scheme began last autumn, gold has never had three, consecutive UP weeks. Would a third week next be a conclusive sign of a bottom? Of course not! It would, however, be another positive signal that we are getting very close. With August13 option expiry next Thursday, anything is possible. Given the overall bearish sentiment and Spec Short market control, there exists a pretty good opportunity for The Cartel to squeeze some of those who have sold the $1300+ calls. We'll see...

There's not much to discuss in silver at this moment. It's still being held below $20 and its chart doesn't look as interesting as gold's. The next bit of excitement will come when price finally encounters the top of the channel again. Can/will it break out or will it simply drop lower again? WTFK but we should get an answer in a week or two.

GOFO rates were stable today but still deeply negative for a record-shattering tenth day in a row. As mentioned above, Aug13 option expiry is next Thursday and FND is on the 31st. The negative GOFO rates and the sharply declining Comex stocks would seem to indicate that the next few weeks are going to be interesting, to say the least. Jesse offers an excellent summation here. I suggest you read it. https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/07/comex-registered-gold-fall-to-another.html

(Remember, "eligible" or "total" gold is simply the unallocated gold held in the vaults. To be deliverable, the gold must be classified as "registered". As of last evening, total Registered gold at the Comex fell to 29.56 metric tonnes. This is enough gold to physically deliver just 9,504 contracts in August.)

A few words on crude here, which is kickin-ass-and-takin-names, much to the bewilderment of many. For example, there's this complete idiot who somehow achieved contributor status at ZeroHedge. I'm not sure this guy could find his ass with both hands and the recent movement in crude has him all aflutter. https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-07-18/gasoline-supplies-highest-july-period-1992

Look, this isn't complicated. Since the overthrow of the Egyptian government two weeks ago, crude has risen over $10. Why? The Muslim Brotherhood is the parent organization of nearly every terrorist group in the MENA. Taking power in Egypt was the culmination of 80+ years of effort. They ain't gonna take their forced removal quietly. Already, a completely overlooked and unreported WAR is taking place in the Sinai Peninsula. If you failed World Geography back in school, you might want to take a look at this map:

Crude is rallying because of realistic fears of supply disruption. Remember, what does one do in a futures market if one is concerned about future supply issues? You hedge and lock in price and delivery today by buying a futures contract. More buyers than sellers mean higher prices. Period. And here we are.

The Big Question is: What happens next? We're already seeing some downside volatility today:

Did President Milhous send out some cronies to plant the predictable rumors of Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases in a pathetic attempt to talk down price? If not today, they'll try that oft-repeated trick soon, of that you can be certain. Regardless, I've told you for months that there need be no concern over Hot War in the MENA until and unless crude makes a sustained move through $100. Well, here we are. What happens next is anyone's guess but, if crude bursts through the early 2011 highs of $114, watch out! And get your ass out of The Middle East!!

Finally, today, we've got to talk about this: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-18/jobs-number-bs-says-former-head-bls.

And here's the source link to read, too: https://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/bls_number_is_bs_jaKS2Nc8Yu2TrnETK2bXEM

We talk about LIES and MOPE and SPIN all the time here. Maybe you, my dear reader, think that I'm the one who is full of it. That I'm the one who lies and spins. Well, I submit to you the information above.

Understand this: Keith Hall was, from 2008 to 2012, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the BLS. The Head Honcho. The Big Cheese. If anybody is going to know the inner working of the BLS, it's this guy. And what does he say in the article above? That's it's all bullshit. (Thus the justification for our term "BLSBS".) Hall explains as much right here:

“Right now [it’s] misleadingly low,” says Hall, who believes a truer reading of those now wanting a job but without one to be more than 10 percent.
The fly in the ointment is the BLS employment-to-population ratio, which is currently at 58.7 percent. “It’s lower than it was when the recession ended. I think that’s a remarkable statistic,” says Hall, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va.
That level tells Hall the real unemployment rate is actually about 3 percentage points higher than the BLS number. If the jobless rate is unacceptable at 7.6 percent, it’d be shockingly bad if he is right and the true rate is 10.6 percent."

If the "unemployment rate" was actually reported at 10.6% instead of 7.6%, what would be the status of:

  • The treasury market and interest rates
  • The stock market
  • QE "taper"
  • Milhous' approval rating
  • Congress' approval rating

You see, it's all lies! The actual data doesn't matter, just make up a number and have CNBS report it. It's all good and the music plays a little bit longer. But the Day of Reckoning is coming. Like any other human endeavor, you can lie and cheat your way through life for a while...but eventually it catches up with you and it all comes crashing down. Will The End come next week or next month? Hell, I don't know. If I've learned anything these past four years it's that I should never underestimate the power of TPTB to extend and pretend their way to a maintenance of their power. With the politicians, bureaucrats and media in your corner, you're bound to have temporary success in avoiding reality. But this will end and, when it does, you're going to be grateful for every ounce of physical gold and silver you have in your possession. These last nine months of contrived Bullion Bank scheming will be a long-forgotten memory.

Have a great weekend.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  402 Comments

argent rampant
Jul 19, 2013 - 1:18pm

I liked this thought expressed on Jesse's blog.

I think many of us here could stand to reflect on it a bit.

"I don't always agree with Chris Hedges of course. If we did, one of us would probably be superfluous.

I find his ideas and observations to be thought provoking, even where I might not agree because I prefer different approaches or methods of achieving what could be similar objectives."

sierra skier
Jul 19, 2013 - 1:19pm

Top 10

Top 10 Yes 2nd. Now for the read.

Edit in:Yes, trying to post while watching golf has got to be difficult, almost as hard as having my visiting 90 yr. old mom run commentary about everything under the sun while I am reading.

It has been trying to keep the faith in my physical while watching the folks in charge do everything within their powers to keep metals from rising and slamming the markets down. My last purchase was just 2 weeks before the big April slam and I was soo tempted to sell but I stood solid.

Hopefully my (all of our) patience will be rewarded in the near future.

sierra skier
Jul 19, 2013 - 1:19pm

OOPS

Sorry so excited to almost get a 1st I double posted.

tyberious
Jul 19, 2013 - 1:21pm

My Dear Extended Family,  

My Dear Extended Family,

On the fundamental view, I have directed you to Global European Anticipation Bulletin. I find no other source with which I agree more than GEAB. The following demands our consideration.

The GEAB site is

https://www.leap2020.eu/

GEAB shockingly says, "Historians will certainly consider the 2008 crisis as a warning shot before that of 2013. All of the world's regions won't be a can be summarized as the following affected the same way but all will suffer. According to LEAP/ E2020 the stages of this second crisis as follows:

-end 2013, financial impact: collapse of financial markets especially in the US and Japan. Banks can no longer be saved by the states and BAIL-Ins are put in place;

-end 2013 / 2014 spreading to the real economy: The financial impasse causes / reveals a major world recession and the reduction of international trade;

-2014, social impact: The economic deterioration causes unemployment to explode, in the United States the dollar's decline lowers the standard of living, riots mushroom everywhere;

-2014 political crisis: the governments of the most affected countries are under fire for their handling of the crisis, forced resignations and early elections are expected, if not coups;

-2014-2015, international management of the crisis: together Euroland and the BRICS impose a new international monetary system and lay down the basis of new global governance;

-2015: The least affected regions have exited the crisis definitively;

-2018: It will take the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan five years to purge themselves of the crisis with, ultimately, a greatly reduced standard of living and a considerable loss of global influence (resulting from their refusal to participate in the re-casting of global governance on new bases)."

I agree totally with the steps. My timing on the final step is more 2020 than 2018 with the USA, GB and Japan taking seven years to purge the criminals that have gotten us to this point via OTC derivative frauds.

I will take this discussion further this weekend, as this is enough for you to chew on today.

Print this article out and post it to your bulletin board for constant reference.

The Chairman of the Federal Reserve has by good chance selected the exact right date to retire. I pity the next victim to serve.

Gold is for savings. Fiat currency is for transactions only.

Sincerely,
Jim


argent rampant
Jul 19, 2013 - 1:27pm

And I really like this, also from Jesse.

It agrees precisely with the mental picture I have always had of Left vs Right!

tyberious
Jul 19, 2013 - 1:32pm

Great piece

Saudis’ Unprecedented Break with Washington over Egypt

ne of the least commented aspects of ousting Egypt’s Morsi is the defiant act of the Saudi Royal House in backing the ouster of the Brotherhood and supporting the military restoration. The Saudi move is unprecedented in its open defiance of White House declared backing for the Muslim Brotherhood. The implications of the split are huge.

Twilight in the desert?

Since the time in 1945 on his return from the fateful Yalta Conference, that USPresident Roosevelt met Saudi King Ibn Saud and won exclusive rights for US Rockefeller-group oil companies to Saudi Arabia’s vast oil wealth, the relationship between Saudi and USforeign policy has been one of almost satrapy status for the Saudis.[1] Following the Kissinger-orchestrated 1973 “oil shock” in which OPEC raised its price by some 400%, Washington extracted a pledge from the Saudis that they would insure that OPEC sold its oil only in dollars, thereby ensuring the continued dominance of the US dollar as world reserve currency. In return, Washington agreed to sell US arms including training the Saudi Air Force.[2]

And in 2010 just as Washingtonlaunched its Arab Spring “democracy” offensive in Tunisia, Egyptand across the Islamic arc of crisis, the Obama Administration announced the largest arms deal in UShistory. The USagreed to sell the Saudis 84 F-15s new and upgrade another 70 as part of a €46 billion deal, the biggest arms deal in US history, as it prepared to isolate Iran. [3]

As we reported in an earlier article, before the Egyptian military coup, the Saudis had given secret assurance to Defense Minister and Chief of the Army, General Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, that the Saudis along with other conservative Gulf oil states including Kuwait and UAE would guarantee financial support should the Obama Administration cut the €1 billion annual aid to Egypt’s military in retaliation for ousting their man, Morsi.[4]

https://www.globalresearch.ca/saudis-unprecedented-break-with-washington...

ctob
Jul 19, 2013 - 1:56pm

Problem with diagrams like that Political Continuum

is that this stuff is not a simple 1 dimensional line so its vastly oversimplified and essentially useless.

Where does Right vs Left come from? Its from the French revolution where the "right" sat together in the political legislative house and were aligned with the idea that some form of monarchist-lite state was the good solution. The "left" sat together on the left side of the building and were for a republic. But both sides were fairly in line with many enlightment ideals.

These plitical terms are really nothing more sophisticated than where some group of semi-randomly associated people tended to sit in a building once. Reading too much into it is simply playing into the Confidence Game that is all of human politics.

russwinter
Jul 19, 2013 - 2:02pm

Oil and Gold: a Distinction

Turd, I agree with you on almost all fronts. You are one of my favorite reads, but you are missing something important on oil. The same spec or Slinger crowd that has liquidated and shorted gold is heavy long oil, at almost a record level. It is in effect a super-crowded paired trade that will come undone. Therefore I expect gold to surge higher and oil to drop. And guess who benefits the most from that trend? Answer: MINERS AND JUNIORS. Their number one input cost is FUEL, they will be turbocharged. Therefore the huge gains will be made in advanced stage deposits and miners, especially emerging miners like ANV, BRD, TGZ, Detour, Osiko.

Hedge Funds and Investment Funds Manipulate Oil Prices:

https://winteractionables.com/?p=4534

Willy
Jul 19, 2013 - 2:04pm
Willy
Jul 19, 2013 - 2:06pm

Bolony Pony

Maybe the Bolony Pony "Bo Polny" is right and the low is in which he says was June 28th, 2013. He says the next CYCLICAL BULL has begun. Go Bo Go! You go too Turd, you're doing a great job!

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