GLD Deception Reaches a New Level

171
Wed, Jul 17, 2013 - 5:55pm

Just as Westley asked Fezzik, "Look. Are you just fiddling around with me, or what?".

My contempt for the GLD and its Authorized Participants is well-documented. I have no doubt that this sham vehicle was expressly created to siphon demand for actual bullion and provide a readily-accessible inventory of metal for the Bullion Banks to "flywheel" whenever and wherever conditions warranted.

Since the first of the year, the GLD "inventory" is now down over 30%, having fallen from 1,350 metric tonnes to today's 936. The shills of the sell-side firms and the dupes in the financial media proclaim that this liquidation is due to heavy investor "selling and reallocation" away from precious metal. Of course, the fact that the comparable silver ETF, the SLV, is UP in inventory by 140 tonnes matters little. The narrative must be forced down your throat in order to provide the banks the continued cover that they require.

And then you get days like today and yesterday, where the banks let their guard down. Did they mess up and accidentally show their true motives OR do they just simply not care anymore, preferring to thumb their collective noses at all of us who are screaming "fraud" and "sham"?

Why do I say this? Check this out.

Yesterday, the GLD reported another drawdown. (Even though price had risen by over $40 since last Thursday...but I digress.) Yesterday's "inventory reduction" wasn't significant compared to some of the drops we've seen this year, it was reported at just 1.50 metric tonnes. The only thing that caught my eye was the round number of 1.50. That seemed strange so I made a mental note and moved on.

Today, the GLD reported another drawdown and this one really got my attention because...drumroll, please...the amount reported was another 1.50 mts. Exactly, right on the nose. Drill down even further and it gets more hilarious:

Monday GLD: 30,192,195.27 troy ounces

Tuesday GLD: 30,143,884.76 troy ounces

This is an AP withdrawal of 48,310.51 ounces. (As an aside, how the heck do you account for the extra 0.51 ounces anyway? Doesn't that seem strange, too? But, again, I digress.) Now check this out:

Tuesday GLD: 30,143,884.76 troy ounces

Wednesday GLD: 30,095,574 troy ounces

This an an AP withdrawal of 48,310.04 ounces.

Seriously, we're supposed to believe that paper gold went up $6.90 yesterday and fell by $12.90 today, all the while the exact same number of shares were tendered each day leading to the exact same physical withdrawal. As they say, "I might have been born at night but it wasn't last night". Exactly 48,310 ounces for two days in a row? Seriously?? Give me a break! Are you just fiddling around with me or what?!?

This is all a huge sham, scam and joke. Can there be any remaining doubt that folks like Maguire, Sprott and Williams are correct? Decades of leasing and rehypothecation have left physical gold in such short supply that a crisis has developed within the fractional reserve bullion banking system. Absent available physical gold to deliver immediately to hungry Eastern buyers, The Gold Cartel Bullion Banks have been utilizing the current price weakness to raid the GLD for every possible ounce. Further proof of this extreme physical tightness is seen in the negative GOFO rates, which have now remained negative for a record-shattering eight, consecutive days.

This charade will soon end in spectacular fashion. Please continue to accumulate physical metal, as much as you deem prudent, while you still can.

TF

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  171 Comments

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Byzantium
Jul 18, 2013 - 1:14pm

@ Motley

You are a key proponent of one side of the argument; I am not a key proponent of either side, nor profess any expertise. That's why I prompted the point; I'll be an observer. It is possible that the entirety of Turdville is unable to disprove or defuse your point; and you are certainly have a view of fundamental importance. I therefore think it is absolutely necessary to air this formally with a high profile thread, and not some back-room forum. All the same, here we are, dying thread and all that, how to elevate the profile of this?

Jul 18, 2013 - 1:14pm

Wondering about crude today?

Three questions:

  1. Does it has something to do with this?​ https://www.debka.com/article/23126/Sinai-Salafis-in-all-out-war-on-Egyptian-forces-blocking-roads-to-MFO-base-and-Israeli-border
  2. Do you know how much crude oil transits The Suez Canal each day? https://www.eia.gov/countries/regions-topics.cfm?fips=wotc&trk=p3
  3. Can you find The Suez Canal on this map?

ctob
Jul 18, 2013 - 1:12pm

This is perfectly normal

for "unusual assets" ... sigh.

Motley Fool
Jul 18, 2013 - 1:03pm

@Byzantium

I wasn't being rude, simply curt.

https://fofoa.blogspot.com/2012/06/gld-talk-continued.html

Here is an old relevant post if you are interested by FOFOA. In it the LBMA liquidity survey is linked : https://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/Loco_London_Liquidity_Surveyrv.pdf

That gives point to determine a ballpark estimation of volume....so (a year ago) it was in the region of $60 trillion per year in turnover.

Edit : A quick google search turned up Comex 2012 report. Their total volume reported was $2.89 billion. Of that they indicated that all metals( gold,silver and copper) make up 6%. Gold made up 2/3's (actual is 63%) of that. That gives you a turnover of $ 115.6 million.

Have I made my point yet?

alan2102
Jul 18, 2013 - 12:53pm

MrGuboci

MrGuboci: "imagine if we get flat or down for the next 2 years ... How would you feel about that?"

I would feel like it was a fabulous base for the next segment of the great bull run -- albeit making for a boring wait. Big bases like that are strong foundations for big moves.

There may not be an imminent great silver shortage (pace DPH above), but that does not mean that the core fundamentals are not growing inexorably. Just to name a couple: China just announced a near doubling of their solar panel giga-wattage target for the next few years (was that posted on here? or elsewhere?); i.e. more silver demand. And India's demand is up hugely this year, with no end in sight as long as their goobermint is materially discouraging gold. It will be investment demand and not industrial demand that really ignites the big moves in the future, but industrial demand will contribute to the effect.

"I already feel like a retarded cockroach following this CULT , because this is what it has become of following some gurus that are ALWAYS wrong , preaching to people to buy in the high 30s and 40s as if the END OF THE WORLD IS TOMORROW ."

Heh. True, there are some cult-like qualities at the fringes of this. Amongst PM bugs there's a substantial amount of TEOTWAWKI/apocalypticism, it is true, along with the more level-headed minds. I do my best to poke fun at the latter, and it seems to help somewhat (?) -- at the price of inflaming those still in the thrall of apocalypticism.

DPH is very right to suggest that everything be put on the table, now and then -- including and especially our most-favorite, pet ideas.

SilverFocker
Jul 18, 2013 - 12:51pm

To much focus on price

Is price the reason you got into PM's? Is making money the reason you got into PM's ?

There is way to much focus on the price action, and not enough on the basics of why we are invested in the Phizz.........to me this is no more than insurance, and like insurance, I really do not want to ever have to use it, yet I can see the writing on the wall by what I have witnessed.

I really do not care why the price swings as it does, or who says what. I fully understand that corruption and manipulation are in full swing on all levels, this is no secret to anyone who peeks behind the vail.....I have gotten to the point of commending these Jackboots for pulling off the greatest heist that the world has ever seen, and no one has done a thing about it.

All we can do, is the best to protect ourselves when this thing unravels, and PM's will help in that time, so if they give us lower prices, GOOD FOR ME, and YOU....I ain't gonna bitch about it.

A wise man once stated "It's a big fucking club and we ain't in it", so stop getting hung up on the price action and who does what, we can't do a thing about it........Celebrate the stacking opportunity......It's all good until it no longer is, the longer it goes , the better off we all are.

Byzantium
Jul 18, 2013 - 12:33pm

@ Motley

Like I said, it was a valid challenge from you, and I am keeping an open mind. I think that the topic absolutely needs to be aired on TFMR, so that the arguments each way can be made.

Your response to me was a bit impolite, but fair enough, you've been treated pretty brutally on these threads at times.

Edit:

so for example, "Ok. So ignore the effects of a market that is 100 times the size because the information is not publicly available?" How do we know then, LBMA's true size?

dgstage
Jul 18, 2013 - 12:33pm
MrGubocizman
Jul 18, 2013 - 12:18pm

@Znab Silver Chart

I was just about to post the same thoughts . For the past 5 years Silver is up 0.84c which is roughly 4.52% . On the top of that many of the metals pumpers of the past are now talking about metals bottoming out in 2014 / 2015 . WTF is going on here ?!? Am I missing something ? Bottom out , seriously ?! ?What happened to the "managed ASCEND" ? Or QE changed everything ? Silver to the moon etc. ? Now , fellow stackers , imagine if we get flat or down for the next 2 years ... How would you feel about that ? I already feel like a retarded cockroach following this CULT , because this is what it has become of following some gurus that are ALWAYS wrong , preaching to people to buy in the high 30s and 40s as if the END OF THE WORLS IS TOMORROW . They always talk about manipulation but never take into account manipulation when making forecasts or wild guesses about silver hitting 100$ in 2011 , 2012 ,2013 ... All this trashtalk is starting to annoy me really a lot and I am starting to see through them .

Motley Fool
Jul 18, 2013 - 12:06pm

@TF

"Motley: I, for one, find it hard to beleve that there is a guy with a scale and or ledger writing down the exact weight of each and every bar allegedly liquidated and transferred."

Perhaps you have a different appreciation for the value of a bar of gold than I do.

For your edification : https://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=27

Also mine, my memory is shoddy. The range is 350-430 ounces.

"Are we supposed to belive that when 48,310 ounces are withdrawn, the AP gets:
120 London bars
3 Comex bars
1 10-ounce Johnson Matthey"

Is this an attempt at frivolity?

48,310.51/400 = 120.775 so on average these bars weighed 402.59 ounces (assuming 120 bars, which is not necessarily correct). That's a very reasonable number given the target of 400 ounces.

"Regardless, my point remains, two days in a row with nearly the exact amount of withdrawal is very fishy."

So does mine. Most people do not have a good grasp on statistics. It's not fishy at all. Now. If it were to continue be that number for a extended period, then it would be fishy.

I recently read a current bestseller book by Daniel Kahneman, who won the Nobel prize for economics in 2002, called Thinking Fast and Slow. Among other things he points out how bad people in general are with statistical deductions, and that even statisticians often make mistakes in judgment. I suggest you read it, if you are interested.

@achamat

Glad I didn't disappoint. :)

@Mantis

"It won't be much different to what we have now except gold will be priced higher."

"A Little knowledge is a dangerous thing" - attributed to Alexander Pope

That is one of the most ignorant statements I have seen recently. - Me

Paraphrasing a comment by someone else I saw today : Freegold changes the relationship [between those with money/power and those without] from parasitism to symbiosis.

@Byzantium

"

Off the top of my head, I'd say that the Comex is indeed relevant, for the following reasons (among others):

  1. LBMA and other arenas are too opaque, they are no good for market watchers.
  2. The Bullion banks dominate both the comex and the LBMA. They might well be using one arena to hedge their activities on the other, but what are the chances in fact that they are short on one and long in the other?
  3. Prices on other exchanges around the world, track the Comex price, give or take.
  4. If LBMA pricing lurches away from Comex, then Comex will have to follow it anyway (is this true)?
  5. Historic moves in the gold & silver prices can usually be linked to corresponding positioning on the comex at the time."

1. Ok. So ignore the effects of a market that is 100 times the size because the information is not publicly available? Ye gods man, are you serious? The least we can do is acknowledge the different sizes of the markets, and try to look at how they are interrelated via arbitrage to get an idea of what the true drivers are. This at least is not unfeasible...and provides valuable insight....into what is a waste of time. :P

2. Again. The OTC market dwarfs the Comex, never mind that Comex is more expensive for them to trade on. They only go to Comex to perhaps offset small parts of their positions if nothing is available on OTC or elsewhere where costs are lower.

3. Correlation does not imply causation. Please take note of this common logical fallacy. Truth is, Comex is a sideshow.

4. Yes. Arbitrage. Trades happen where there is money to be made.

5. Historic? You haven't seen historic yet, but it is coming. xD

.... Meh.

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