Just Brutal

Wed, Jul 17, 2013 - 12:02pm

JeezoPete. I've been sitting here, trying to watch CNBS and The Bernank in front of Congress...and I just can't do it. It's all nonsense MOPE and SPIN. Just brutal.

Again, all the talk is "taper this" and "taper that". Sure, maybe for political purposes, The Fed may curtail some of the $40B/month in free money they are passing along to the banks. Knock it back to $20B/month and claim they've "cut QE" from $85B/month to $65B. "That's a cut of over 23%", I can hear LIESman say. Whatever. And what are we to make of The Fed's own Primary Dealer ButtBoys cutting their Q2 GDP forecasts back to just 1%? (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-15/goldman-joins-jpm-cutting-q2-gdp-1-stall-speed-funny-chart-becomes-funnier) Like I said, it's all just nonsense MOPE and SPIN.

Here's a new angle for you...With all this incessant talk of taper, is The Fed simply trying to send a political message to the Republocrats, attempting to frighten them into acting "responsibly" when the debt ceiling issue once again rises up this fall? Maybe. As if The Fed, though, would NOT print and print as much money as The Treasury requires. Like I said...just nonsense MOPE and SPIN, all part of a gigantic charade.

Speaking of charades, have you been following this? The officially reported U.S. government debt level has now been stuck at $16,699,396,000,000 for 8 weeks! Apparently, the Treasury is using "extraordinary measures" to fund the government, which allows the accumulated debt to remain a full $25,000,000 below the mandated limit. And this deliberate deception will continue until early September. https://cnsnews.com/news/article/treasury-debt-has-been-exactly-1669939600000000-56-days

Of course, the debt still continues to accumulate. It's not $16.7T. Check the debt clock. It's actually $16.86T (https://www.usdebtclock.org/) but who's counting. The Congress and Treasury will just say it's whatever they want it to be so that they don't have to deal with any pesky laws or mandates and they can go along their merry way with an August recess. Absolutely shameless.

Alright, moving along...The GOFO rates steepened lower again today, marking the eighth, consecutive day of being negative for one, two and three months. Again, this is unprecedented! At the height of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, GOFO went negative for three days. We are now on our eighth day and rates are have been steepening all week. https://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/?page_id=55&title=gold_forwards&show=2013

To that end, if you haven't yet read this excellent summary from Grant Williams, I encourage you to do so immediately. If follows along nicely with the Sprott report I posted yesterday and connects all the dots very, very well. https://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh/what-if. Grant did such a nice job that even Mineweb had to admit that he had some valid points! https://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=198098&sn=Detail

Following along with Grant's spot-on analysis, the GLD shed another 1.5 mts yesterday, dropping its "inventory" back to 937.57 mts, down over 400 tonnes YTD (-30.54%). Again, compare this to the SLV, which added another 2MM ounces Monday and now has added 139 tonnes YTD (+1.4%).

Here's a great followup to the KWN interview of William Kaye last week. Recall that Mr. Kaye boldly asserted that Hong Kong refiners are taking London bars, assaying them and re-refining them into new bars. Gee...I wonder where he got that information?...but I digress. I'm just glad that this guy has gone "on the record" and divulged more info. Start here: https://www.metallwoche.de/clarification-of-william-kaye-re-german-us-gold-in-hong-kong-refineries/ and then read the text at GATA: https://www.gata.org/node/12801 (Maybe shoot GATA some fiat while you're there. Bill and Chris are putting in long hours these days for your benefit.)

Finally today let's talk a little more about Shanghai and Chinese demand. First, there's this interesting article from Bloomberg of all places that discusses the issue: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-15/gold-deliveries-from-shanghai-bourse-jump-on-physical-demand-1-.html. In typical Bloomberg style, the writer tucks in this little gem of disinfo:

"Still, monthly gold deliveries are now below the record 236 tons in April, having eased to 224 tons in May and 180 tons in June.
“Investors aren’t inclined to rush to buy gold the way they did to the abrupt price drop in mid-April,” said Long Ling, an analyst at Industrial Futures Co. in Shanghai."

Isn't that cute? 180 metric tonnes of demand in June is apparently an indication that "investors aren't inclined to rush to buy gold". Oh, really? Really?? Funny that they failed to include these charts in their story. Oh well, probably jut a space constraint or something like that.

And speaking of Shanghai, this is interesting. Yesterday, Max had as his guest Jan Skoyles of The Real Asset Company in London. The segment begins at about the 12:00 mark. You should watch it.

Finally, just a couple of things that have occurred while I've typed. First, the site crashed again. This is no surprise, really, as longtime readers will recall that on three occasions back in 2012...precisely when The Bernank began his testimony before Congress...the site was hit with a DOS and crashed. In an amazing coincidence, it happened again today. And, once again, right as The Bernank began to speak. Nah...move along...nothing to see here. Just a coincidence, I'm sure.

And, as easily predicted, the metals have been smashed back lower. The Bernank opened his mouth with a few morsels of truth last week and UP went the metals. Well, we can't have that, now can we? So, what happens next? The Benrnank SPINs and MOPEs his way through the Pumphrey-Hawkins testimony and the metals are jammed back down. The Large Specs and their HFTs will be allowed to remain in control until they aren't. When will that happen? Hard to say for certain but I doubt it will be for much longer, given the reasons laid out above.

Hang in there and keep the faith.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


SilverTree · Jul 17, 2013 - 12:08pm
wildstylechef · Jul 17, 2013 - 12:09pm

ya baby

At least we hit 1300 but as soon as any words of triming the QE came out of Bernanke's mouth down we went 4000+ contracts a minute. Anything to keep this under control. But by the looks of Physical gold holdings for COMEX and JPM we are looking at default at one of the suppliers very soon. When this thing blows its going to blow off like a 12 year old's first time

AGAU · Jul 17, 2013 - 12:09pm

Crap I think my screen

Crap I think my screen just rotated those kitco charts don't look right????

achmachat · Jul 17, 2013 - 12:09pm


...when we always looked forward to the Bernank's public appearances?

tyberious · Jul 17, 2013 - 12:10pm


Didn't I buy puts this morning! Geeze!!

mrneutron · Jul 17, 2013 - 12:11pm


ZH - Bernanke: we are better off doing something that not. Like blowing bubbles.

Bernanke: our mandate is to continue confusing cause and effect.

waxybilldupp · Jul 17, 2013 - 12:11pm

Fuzzyface speaks ...

Look familiar? If you check the current gold price on kitco and look at today's graph, this is what you see. 

A Beautiful Video Of the Tallest Water fall on Earth- Angel Falls

Can't make this stuff up. Buying opportunity ... day 157.

wax off

· Jul 17, 2013 - 12:12pm

Remarkable Capping

Just these two charts for you. Pretty impressive stuff.

· Jul 17, 2013 - 12:15pm

And did you see this from Ranting Andy last night?

What are the mathematical odds against this type of daily correlation in a "free and fair market"?

flyinkel · Jul 17, 2013 - 12:29pm

Monthly Donation EVERYONE NOW pretty please with cherries on TOP

Turd, you rock!

Make this man some money so he can defend the take-downs! No-one put me up to this, and I don't know him, but I do know his info is AMAZING!

R U TIRED of MSM and Kim Kardashian's baby's name? Do you know it? Yah! Embarassing isn't it?


Some Lurkers, just don't have the expertise or charting abilities; but they do recognize VALUE and REWARD IT!

I hope you get RICH off SUBSCRIBERS! Thanks for ALL you do!

· Jul 17, 2013 - 12:30pm
flyinkel · Jul 17, 2013 - 12:30pm

Thank you

You're very kind.

NonoverlappingMagicCereal · Jul 17, 2013 - 12:31pm

RE: correlation in ranting andy chart

What are the mathematical odds against this type of daily correlation in a "free and fair market"?

The odds are way, way better than you think. Never rely on the human brain to identify patterns in noisy data, it will see them in absolute randomness every time.

If you would like to calculate the actual odds, I would suggest dividing the chart into X equal time slices (maybe 20?). For each slice, record whether or not the price moved in the same direction. That will give you a value that you can plug into this bernoulli trial calculator. Eye balling it, I would say that perhaps 14 of 20 equal slices move in the same direction, which should happen roughly 6% of the time by random chance (or about 1-2 times a month).

Also, I've said it before, but remember if such 'obvious' patterns exist it, they would be trivially easy for traders to exploit, and would then disappear.

achmachat · Jul 17, 2013 - 12:36pm

Dear Nonoverlapping,

you do realize that with what you write here, all that we can see is:


I really hope that you are paid for your efforts here.

Yours truly,


SilverFocker · Jul 17, 2013 - 12:36pm

We all knew

This was what was in store for today.........it should not come as no surprise, while it is hard to listen when his mouth opens, it is even harder to listen to who is asking the questions. 

Congress fucked the pooch here, making him the supreme leader of the world markets, so if they are willing to abdicate their responsibility, then I will cheer every word he speaks when those words allow me to purchase more for less.......nothing, absolutely nothing has changed in the FUNDO"s of why we stack, they have only continued to stretch the end game, which gives us more time, and I'm grateful for that. I still have many things to do on the checklist, at the same time, I realize that I will never check all the boxes, the longer this goes the better off we are when things do come apart at the seams.

ctob · Jul 17, 2013 - 12:38pm

Wel somebody has to take the hit

Glad you are watching the TV for me Turd, I haven't turned mine on in 9 months. Somebody has to do it.

How long does it take the brain novacaine to wear off after watching that crap?

dropout · Jul 17, 2013 - 12:40pm

Run Away With the Cash!

JPM and BofA are in the market for a buyer to purchase their metals warehouse divisions, which operate through the London metals exchange. Over this past year, there has been many complaints received by the LME about the lengthy delays in the delivery metals in a timely fashion. In particular, the big beer and soft drinks manufactures have complained bitterly about the length of time it takes to order and receive aluminum.

We all remember MF Global, right? JP Morgan was put on the MF Global bankruptcy committee on November 7, 2011. Two weeks later, JP Morgan buys MF Global's 4.7% stake in the London metals exchange (LMEX) for $39 million, in a "competitive bidding" process. Seven months later, on June 15, 2012 the London metals exchange receives an offer from the Hong Kong exchange (HKEX) for $2.2 billion, making JPM's stake worth $103 million!

Now that the HKEX has re-written the delivery process rules for metals, JPM and BofA are trying with all their might to get out from under. Kind of nice to see the shoe on the other foot for once! The East now owns the LMEX and the Chinese are calling the shots. Their learning curve has been steep over this past decade, but they are rapidly catching up.

· Jul 17, 2013 - 12:44pm
· Jul 17, 2013 - 12:50pm

And here's the real beauty of Bernank's MOPE and SPIN

In all seriousness, this is remarkable. A true testament to the power of central planning and central control.

The 10-year note rallies (lower rates) last week when The Bernank hinted at more QE, not less. And then the 10-year note rallies further today as The Bernank hints that taper is right around the corner. Remarkable.

John Galt · Jul 17, 2013 - 12:50pm

Bernanke Speaking to Congress

Theater of the sock puppets. Keep Calm and Stack On.

Corto · Jul 17, 2013 - 12:55pm

Brutal, yes!

How many buying opportunities do we get to have?!

The capping at $1300 and $20 is pretty freaking amazing.

Yet again another day of stocks up, bonds up and gold and silver down.

Again I have to hand it to TPTB, because all I am doing (while buying) today is wondering if I am throwing it all down a rat hole. I truly feel right now that gold will never get above $1300 for months if not years!

My "sure thing" $30 2015 SLV calls, I have averaged down multiple times, with each average down followed by even lower prices. Feels like calls I had on UNG years ago!

Damn they got me down.

agNau · Jul 17, 2013 - 12:59pm

Long Ling ?

? Never mind.

· Jul 17, 2013 - 1:09pm
Mickey · Jul 17, 2013 - 1:10pm

12 minutes

that was the time it took for the takedown, and no, its not normal. Except in PM normal.

slowly climbing back. We still have tomorrows repeat of testimony--wonder why the geniuses could not combine it into one longer day. That starts on time.

AGAU · Jul 17, 2013 - 1:11pm

oh to be a BB

I can only imagine how much money these arse holes make pumping and dumping these pms I guess the Chinese etc are all in on it !? but someone else must be taking a slapping on the other side of these trades? what do they take turns in the barrel? surely there cannot be many retail muppets left trying to trade these swings?

Maybe Benny boy can ease up a little 'cos he's fleecing the markets to get the cash he needs to keep the debt "ceiling" down for a few more months an dhelp line the BB's pockets some more

heres a little tale to lighten up on this smack down morning

a dawg walks up to a stable with a coupla thoroughbreds leaning out the stable he says "must be nice having your pampered life all the fillies you can handle best food money can buy and all that glory " and walks off

one stallion looks at the other and goes

"well dip me in shit and roll me in cracker crumbs - a talking dog!!" har

Mickey · Jul 17, 2013 - 1:12pm


where does he find the time?

Dyna mo hum · Jul 17, 2013 - 1:13pm

How tedious

it must be to hold a beach ball under the surface forever. Same old same old....

Willy · Jul 17, 2013 - 1:16pm


US $ Index now negative for the day.

Katie Rose · Jul 17, 2013 - 1:17pm

Even I am stunned with this one...

This is the first time I have reposted something from another thread. I am doing so because I believe it is really important to all of us stackers. I'm wondering if this is a trial balloon to see how "we the people" react?

Dyna mo hum posted this link on page 1 of the Sprott thread. It was mostly ignored. I believe it is a trial run by the EE. It is a chilling thought that the government wants to know everything about our stacking practices.

If I lived in Connecticut, I would put my house on the market immediately and leave the state before they made it illegal to do so. Sometimes the handwriting is just on the wall...

Connecticut: “No Guns, No Gold”
Written by Gary North on April 26, 2013

You probably know about the gun control bill that was voted into law this month. Gun manufacturers are threatening to move out of the state. The story is here.

The state is now about to shut down all coin stores. A bill to require complete record-keeping on all sales, including photos of every coin sold, and recording the ID of every buyer and seller, is about to be passed into law. The cost of complying will shut down the stores. Read about it here.


To require precious metals or stones dealers to provide a periodic statement of transactions in an electronic format to the local licensing authority and retain any goods purchased for at least ten days, and to make the requirements applicable to precious metals or stones dealers similar to those applicable to secondhand dealers.

Introduced by: Public Safety and Security Committee

You may recall that the terror of the French Revolution was run by the Committee on Public Safety.

How bad is this proposed bill? Here are the details, from the state’s website.

Property Description. Under the bill, the record’s property description must include:

1. all distinguishing marks, engravings, and etchings;

2. names of any kind, including brand and model;

3. model and serial numbers;

4. affiliation with any institution or organization;

5. dates;

6. initials;

7. color;

8. vintage; and

9. image represented.

Read more:


AGAU TF · Jul 17, 2013 - 1:18pm

the Rev

When you get his age maybe he needs the Cialis to stop him rolling out of bed !!

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Recent Comments

by lakedweller2, 2 hours 3 min ago
by Turd Ferguson, 2 hours 18 min ago
by scoremore, 2 hours 32 min ago
by lakedweller2, 3 hours 11 min ago