Furious Friday

Fri, Jul 12, 2013 - 12:44pm

Time has really gotten away from me this morning so we'd better get started and move along quickly.

For the third time this week, price was effectively capped when London began trading this morning. Again, with this such a recurring pattern, why anyone buys gold futures at midnight or 1:00 am in NY or afternoon is Asia is beyond me. You're going to get your ass kicked more times than not. It happened again last night and here we are, struggling to regain the dollars clipped by the London Monkeys.

Note how the tone for the day is often set in London. If The Monkeys take the day off, price rallies all day through the Comex session. If The Monkeys intervene, price struggles all day. Today is another struggle day.

Though it's nice that prices have rallied, don't go getting too excited just yet. As mentioned yesterday, gold needs to get back above $1350 at a minimum and silver needs $21+ before the spec shorts will begin to get nervous. And all of this Bernank stuff could get yanked right back out next week...in fact it's likely that it will. The Bernank will be in front of Congressional committees again next Wednesday and Thursday as part of his semi-annual updates. https://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/06/13/bernanke-to-deliver-semi-annual-testimony-to-congress-july-17-18/ Would you be at all surprised if he turns around and is all "taper taper taper" next week after the reaction to his speech and comments this week? I wouldn't. And you know that the spec shorts will be eager to pounce if given the chance.

Did you notice the huge addition to the SLV last night? The sham picked up 90 tonnes, almost 3 million ounces of silver yesterday alone. WOW! And total "inventory" now rests at 10,125 metric tonnes. Hmmm. Keep in mind that on 1/2/13, the total SLV "inventory" was 10,085 metric tonnes. Some quick math shows that now the SLV is actually UP 40 tonnes YTD. UP!!! All the while, the price of silver has fallen by over 30% from $30 to $20. That wouldn't be too remarkable I guess if the GLD hadn't shed over 30% of its "inventory" over the same time period as its price fell from $1700 to $1300. Whatever...

With all of the bacon lovers around here, I would be remiss if I didn't bring to your attention the current happenings in the Lean Hogs market. It seems there is a very nasty swimming in the "Sus" pool and it's wiping out nearly an entire crop of baby pigs. If a piglet contracts the virus in the first three weeks of life, the mortality rate is 100%. Yikes! https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2013/07/11/pig_farms_hit_by_devastating_virus.html As you might imagine, this has had a rather dramatic impact on the Lean Hog market. It hasn't yet reached the point of signal failure but you need to watch it closely, if anything because, if it continues, even the canned variety of bacon is going to be getting much more expensive.

And speaking of culling the population, you may have heard me mention to Felix of GoldMoney that I'd recently read and very much enjoyed the new Dan Brown book, "Inferno". (Even though the middle third is long on architecture and short on action.) The plot deals with the mathematics of population growth and I found it metaphorical to the mathematics of debt growth. Anyway, it's a fun summer read and if you're looking for something to take with you on vacation, I give it a hearty thumbs up. My next purchase will be the new Brad Thor book, "Hidden Order". Brad's books are always entertaining and I'm sure this one is no different. If you're interested in picking up either one, click the link below. (Turd gets a little commishkey, too, if you do.)

The GOFO rates that everyone is watching continued negative for an unprecedented fifth straight day today. If you want to follow along next week, you can find the rates here: https://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=55&show=2013 Again, what this purports to demonstrate is an incredible demand and desire for physical gold, such that it is currently more valuable than holding dollars. Physical holders are unwilling to exchange their gold for a futures contract, even though they are guaranteed a significant short-term return. Why is this? Because physical holders either do not trust the system or there simply isn't enough gold available to close his hole. Either way, the past three occurrences of negative GOFO have led to sharp, short-term rallies so many pundits are watching this closely. We'll see...

And, finally, another CoT is due at 3:30 today. For the reporting week, gold was actually UP $4. I know that's hard to believe given the blasting it took a week ago today...but, seriously, it was. And the total gold OI rose again, this time by another 21,000 contracts with much of that coming on 7/3 and 7/5, while price was getting whacked. We should expect another "improvement" in the CoT structure. Last week, The Gold Cartel was net short just 22,000 contracts or 70 mts of paper gold. Could today's report cut that number in half??? Maybe? Probably. Again, we'll see.

OK, that's all for now. I gotta go cuz I got more stuff to do. Have a great weekend but be sure to check back later today or tomorrow for some instant analysis of the CoT.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


csquared13 · Jul 12, 2013 - 12:47pm



Fat Willie · Jul 12, 2013 - 12:50pm

Just missed it! Dammit!

Oh well. Back to the beer!

tyberious · Jul 12, 2013 - 12:50pm
49Pan · Jul 12, 2013 - 12:51pm


Ahhhhhh Turdville....

AGAU · Jul 12, 2013 - 12:51pm

I going to sqeem qnd sqeem

I going to sqeem qnd sqeem til im sick cos i missed the first slot!!!!@!

ChewYourOwnFaceOff · Jul 12, 2013 - 12:51pm



dudestacker · Jul 12, 2013 - 12:58pm

No cheater

I read the post and the pig link first.

Howard Roark · Jul 12, 2013 - 1:02pm

No cheater2

And even hat tip Mr. Turd!

Keep struggling,


· Jul 12, 2013 - 1:06pm

Top 10?

Brad Thor has interesting speculation in one (probably more than just one) of his novels on what an organization with unlimited eavesdropping and espionage capability might be able to do -- such as front-run markets, do insider trading, blackmail market-makers/participants... and eventually gather enough funds in off-shore, secret, double-blind shell company structures to emancipate itself from its previous owners -- becoming completely autonomous, accountable to and dependent on noone... From a previous post:

Black List from Brad Thor, which the author seems to call 'faction' [note -- I changed some of the terms used]:

"For years ATS [substitute other alpha-acronym] had been using its technological superiority to conduct massive insider trading. Since the early 1980s, the company had spied on anyone and everyone in the financial world. They listened in on phone calls, intercepted faxes, and evolved right along with the technology, hacking internal computer networks and e-mail accounts. They created mountains of ‘black dollars’ for themselves, which they washed through various programs they were running under secret contract, far from the prying eyes of financial regulators.

“Those black dollars were invested into hard assets around the world, as well as in the stock market, through sham, offshore corporations. They also funneled the money into reams of promising R&D projects, which eventually would be turned around and sold to the Five-Sided-Building or the CentralIA.

“In short, ATS had created its own license to print money and had assured itself a place beyond examination or reproach.”

Speculation on Snowden: pundits are saying Snowden is a 'headache' for Kremlin - if they allow him to stay, it damages relationship with US, if they hand him to US they look like wimps. Could Ed's renewed asylum request be a bargaining chip -- transport him (by Russian sub, military plane, boat, whatever) to Latin American asylum offerers without risk of interdiction by USAF/USN or allied/controlled countries, to avoid the conundrum above?

rl999 · Jul 12, 2013 - 1:07pm


Is it possible that JPM is acquiring all that physical silver in order to do an offering in SLV, the same way Sprott has to buy 300million in phyzz before he can offer more shares in his fund?

Is it possible that JPM acquiring physical silver is bad for all of us, because that is what I have to believe. That was my initial reaction, and I see no reason to change it?

rl999 · Jul 12, 2013 - 1:13pm


Top ten! Bazinga!

off to buy these beauties

I think they have a great shot at appreciating rapidly based on their being a legal tender item from a private non-gov mint, being a coin in bar form instead of a round, having a limited production of 350k, and the high premium most scottsdale products command.

Zoltan · Jul 12, 2013 - 1:14pm

787 Fire

Hard to find this story on CNN and the other MSM but some media have picked it up.

Guess the stock market believes it.


Big Dutch · Jul 12, 2013 - 1:16pm

Wish I Knew

5 days of negative GOFO rates, JPM short on gold for contracts issued in May and Jun, Brinks losing 70% of its inventory in a week, and for first time ever COMEX puts a disclaimer on it's gold inventories last month (June 5 to be precise).

It all HAS to mean something. Just wish I knew exactly what is going on behind the scenes. If JPM were to default (I doubt they will... yet), anyone have a guess as to when we would know?

Bollocks · Jul 12, 2013 - 1:19pm

5th amendment GONE.

Gun rights activist Adam Kokesh to stay in jail after refusing to speak to judge

"I'll take your silence as your consent," a Fairfax County judge told him


SilverTree · Jul 12, 2013 - 1:20pm



Cononish1314 · Jul 12, 2013 - 1:21pm

Dreamliners are made of this: ZH's Greatest Hits


Piranhanoia's picture

Customs official; "What is the cargo of this plane on an unscheduled flight to Cyrpus?" Schaublebabble; "This is stabeeleetee for die Euronasia Onion" Customs official; "What is the cargo that is being sent to Cyprus on this plane?" Schaublebabble; "The plane is full of paper und kerosene, das ist alle." Customs official; "What kind of paper is this plane carrying?" Shaublebabble; "Das is der scheise dat dreams were made of" Customs official; "I am sorry, your flight is canceled. We do not allow dreamliners with people, we are not going to allow it with bomb making material."

benny_bomb_boom · Jul 12, 2013 - 1:34pm

GOFO fosho mofo

 and a solid 2nd on the turd h/tip. 5th day in a row makes for another blow to never seen before. let this mystery continue to unfold. waiting is the game. i tend to agree with rl999 and think the more "phyzz" the morgue has to dump into SLV the longer the road.

bunnytoujours · Jul 12, 2013 - 1:38pm

Wine at lunch

Just wanted to say love you guys and Turd for all you do

slavador · Jul 12, 2013 - 1:40pm


Since 1180 was approached and the POG reversed, volume of transactions on my net-dania screen has plummeted by 2/3. Even yesterday's very exciting action had very low volume. Is this because certain classes of traders have left the PM scene for other pursuits or is there something more interesting going on?

Nick Elway · Jul 12, 2013 - 1:47pm

What are my rights at a checkpoint?

What are my rights at a checkpoint?



I'd love to hear from the the turdite legal beagles on this subject.

From flexyourrights..


DUI Checkpoints

Sobriety checkpoints — also known as DUI checkpoints — are the most common roadblocks you might encounter. They function as a general purpose investigatory tactic where police can get a close look at passing motorists by detaining them briefly. A roadblock stop is quick, but it gives police a chance to check tags and licenses, while also giving officers a quick whiff of the driver’s breath and a chance to peer into the vehicle for a moment.

Remember that your constitutional rights still apply in a roadblock situation. Though police are permitted to stop you briefly, they may not search you or your car unless they have probable cause that you’re under the influence or you agree to the search. As such, you are not required to answer their questions or admit to breaking the law.

Since the Supreme Court’s ruling in Illinois v. Caballes police have more leeway to use drug-sniffing dogs in roadblock situations. There’s no need to waive your rights simply because dogs are present. But be advised that your legal options are limited if you’re arrested as a result of a dog sniff during a roadblock.

Also keep in mind that police closely monitor cars approaching the roadblock. So you’re not likely to have any success trying to evade it.

Sobriety checkpoints are generally permitted by the courts, but only if conducted properly. If you’re arrested at a police roadblock always consult an attorney before confessing or agreeing to a plea bargain. There might be some legal options that your lawyer can pursue.

US Border Checkpoints

Be aware that Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents — which are part of the Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS) — are permitted to search you and your belongings at the U.S. border without probable cause or a search warrant. So anytime you cross the border, you consent to a search.

CBP may generally stop and search the property of anyone entering or exiting the U.S. If agents have reasonable suspicion to believe you’re concealing contraband, they may search your body using pat-down, strip, body cavity, or involuntary x-ray searches.

Searches of Electronic Devices
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals recently ruled that Homeland Security border agents must have reasonable suspicion before they can legally conduct a forensics search of laptops, mobile phones, camera memory cards, and other electronic devices.

Unfortunately, this limited ruling still permits agents to conduct a “quick look” laptop search, such as asking you to turn on your laptop to peek at open windows. So always password protect your files before crossing the border. And, of course, never voluntarily give agents your password.

Checkpoints Near the Border

Be aware that DHS agents have recently set up constitutionally-questionable “security checkpoints” up to 100 miles inside U.S. territory. If you should drive into one of these roadblocks, you are not required to answer the agent’s questions (usually starting with “Are you a United States citizen?”). Nor are you required to consent to any searches.

Visit www.checkpointusa.org/blog to learn more about this program and check out the video below. By actively “flexing” their rights, these brave citizens expose the techniques DHS agents (and police in general) use to trick and intimidate citizens into compliance. Also take note of the practical necessity of flexing your rights repeatedly.

Drug Checkpoints (it’s a trap!)

The Supreme Court has ruled that random checkpoints for the purpose of finding illegal drugs are unconstitutional. However, police sometimes put up signs warning drivers of up-coming drug checkpoints and instead pull over people who make illegal u-turns or discard contraband out the window. If you see a sign saying “Drug Checkpoint Ahead”, just keep driving and don’t panic. If there’s a rest area following the sign, DO NOT pull into it. If you do, you’ll find yourself surrounded by drug-sniffing dogs.

Police departments, especially in the Mid-west, have been pushing their luck with this tactic, so if you encounter anything resembling an actual drug checkpoint, please contact that state’s ACLU Chapter. Similarly, if you’re arrested as a result of a real or fake “drug checkpoint”, you must contact an attorney to explore your legal options.

TSA Checkpoints

Be aware that Transportation Security Agency (TSA) agents — which are part of the Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS) — are permitted to search you and your belongings without probable cause or a search warrant anytime you pass through a TSA security zone.

Galearis rl999 · Jul 12, 2013 - 1:49pm

@rl999 re JPM buying silver

As JPM has done with copper stocks at the LME...Don't forget that copper is a monetary metal - and this makes more sense than referring to it by the cryptic "Dr. Copper" talk. So consider the move on silver by JPM as the same as the move on copper....

Copper should be (in fair price non suppressed price) around the $12 mark today.

This is not about JPM attempting to buy up the metal so that they can dump it back to suppress the price - as a central bank would do....No this is JPM just plain stacking before a run on them really gets going!

As I mentioned to Jeff Nielson this morning by email: there is a PRIVATE metal leased short out there that the bullion banks are worried about too....The central bank metal short will be forgiven; the rest will be part of class action law suits against the banks once this market blows up along its way to physical settlement only...Think along the lines of ABN AMBRO default.

But what do I know anyway,...?



Eric Original · Jul 12, 2013 - 1:52pm

Take the rest of the summer off, maybe the rest of the year

Face facts, folks. Metals and miners charts look like death. By my count, miners hit a sell signal last November, metals in February. This is a bear market. Your attention and your capital should be deployed elsewhere until further notice.

Of all the things that might qualify as "prepping", losing money ain't one of 'em.

Somebody had to say it.

"BOO!!!" The Best (as in worst) Booing Ever!
rl999 · Jul 12, 2013 - 2:05pm

@ Galearis

That makes sense. Perhaps I am to jaded, however if JPM is in the sentence I automatically think of it negatively.


-other thoughts

Is JPM purchasing the contracts perhaps a preventative measure - are they able to displace others with their large scale purchases?

Is JPM standing for delivery 'picking the low hanging fruit' in some way?

Hunt brother · Jul 12, 2013 - 2:20pm

Alamos bought my Esparanza..

Esparanza has quality projects in Mexico. Sold at the buyout price ( this was a friendly cash offer). Used the money from the sale to add shares of a Mexico junior and also bought a large number of shares of a Yukon explorer that has been slaughtered.

SilverSurfers · Jul 12, 2013 - 2:27pm


Murphy proclaimed the jig is up. :o

If I were to write a playbook for how and why Gold was revalued higher I could not put together a better scenario than we have right now. Everything is in place, EVERYTHING! Supply constraints, increasing demand from both the fear and greed sides, a financial system that is not mathematically viable and showing signs of failure, currency wars between nations and now the "I want it and I want it in my hand NOW" syndrome.


more polished: proof reading is such a pain :(



foggyroad · Jul 12, 2013 - 2:29pm

Eric re.take the rest of the summer off

Ok, so if I take your advice, are you going to come back and tell me two days before I should re-enter the market?

And strange as it might sound, what if oh I don't know something blows up.. in, oh I don't know.. stab in the dark ..

Europe, or the MENA, does that have any effect on your call?

Please illuminate.

Does the GOFO thingy not pique your interest, or the derivatives thingy, maybe?


Dear Mr. NSA overseer please note, the term "blow up" is metaphorical, carry on.

Willy · Jul 12, 2013 - 2:29pm


Everybody now.....FUBM.....COBRA......FUBM.....COBRA.....FUBM....COBRA.....

Cononish1314 · Jul 12, 2013 - 2:42pm

Did something just happen in

Did something just happen in the precious metals markets?

Or is this just an everyday fantasy about Blythe Masters and a snake?

ABQBear · Jul 12, 2013 - 2:48pm

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