An Amazing CoT and BPR for Gold

141
Mon, Jul 8, 2013 - 4:57pm

Released just this afternoon, the July Bank Participation Report and the latest Commitment of Traders Report are so interesting that I felt they justified this new post.

So, let's dive right in. I'm not going to spend much time talking about silver because the data is somewhat skewed this week by the expiration of the July13 contract. The Large Specs added 3800 net long and the Commercials added 3700 net short, all due to expiration and rollovers and now we see why silver outperformed gold by such a wide margin last week.

The reports for gold, on the other hand, are astonishing. Let's start with the CoT. For the reporting week, price fell by $32 while total OI rose by 19,752 contracts. Check out these internals:

Large Specs dumped another 6,200 longs and added 7,200 additional shorts. This brings their net position down to just 20,700 contracts and drops their total net long ratio down to a preposterously low 1.15:1. Again, for perspective, shortly after QE∞ was announced last fall, the gold Large Specs were net long over 210,000 contracts. This means that, in the time since, they've been coerced into dropping their long exposure by over 90%.

On the all-important flip side, The Gold Cartel added another 21,427 new longs last week through the Tuesday cutoff. Because they also added 8,995 new shorts, their net short position only declined by over 12,000 contracts. However...and here comes the amazing part...their new net short position is just 22,776 contracts, roughly 70 metric tonnes of paper gold, and their updated net short ratio is also preposterously low at 1.12:1.

Remember, this entire "event" from the announcement of QE∞ last fall to today, has been staged in order to give The Bullion Banks the time and the ability to cover their massive paper short position. When QE∞ was announced in September of last year, the total Cartel net short position was 737 metric tonnes of paper gold. As of last Tuesday, they are now net short just 70 metric tonnes. That's an incredible and amazing drop of over 90%.

Now get this, the CoT survey was taken last Tuesday. On Wednesday and Friday of last week, the total dollar move in gold was down another $32. Over those two days, the total open interest n gold rose by 18,561 contracts. It recent form follows, then it is safe to conclude that the vast majority of this new OI was contract initiation on the short side by the Large Specs. If that's the case, then we headed into last weekend with a total Gold Cartel net short position as low as 5,000 contracts. TOTAL!! And now you see why I find this so incredible and amazing.

Next let's consider this month's Bank Participation Report. This aggregated report gives us a once-a-month look at the gross positions of those traders classified as banks, both U.S. and non-U.S. Now check this out...let's start with the report from last October so that you can see from another perspective just how steep the changes have been in the nine months since.

GROSS LONG GROSS SHORT

U.S. Banks 40,625 146,809

Non U.S. Banks 34,881 113,445

TOTAL 75,506 248,254

And now here are the numbers from last month (June). Note that the banks had moved from net short position of 172,748 to a small net long position of 4,582. This got everyone's attention and was well summarized here: https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/06/cftc-gold-and-silver-bank-participation.html

GROSS LONG GROSS SHORT

U.S. Banks 56,751 27,129

Non U.S. Banks 24,035 49,075

TOTAL 80,786 76,204

Well, we've all been waiting with baited breath for the July report and it just came in a few minutes ago. Would the banks continue to cover on these falling prices or were they adding to the downside momentum? We got our answer:

GROSS LONG GROSS SHORT

U.S. Banks 69,565 24,939

Non U.S. Banks 34,904 58,565

TOTAL 104,560 83,859

The total net long position grew by over 16,000 contracts to an astounding 20,701. But drill a little deeper...The U.S. banks actually added net longs of 15,000! The only thing holding the overall net position in check was the 9,500 new shorts put on by non U.S. banks (HSBC? Scotia? Barclays? UBS?) Do you think that The Fed warns, plans and advises the non-U.S. banks as clearly and succinctly as they do the U.S. banks?? The Fed IS the U.S. Banks. If Barclays or UBS is too stupid to see what's going on and they are actually adding shorts at these prices, well Hells Bells, go right ahead! Their selling simply allows the U.S. Banks to cover even more!

Look, I know these past nine months have been brutal and we've all suffered through the almost-daily pain of continued losses. But this is almost over! Yes, prices may continue lower, stopping and turning who knows where. However, I am 100% confident in my analysis of The Big Picture here. The major, too-big-to-fail, Fed-Primary-Dealer and Bullion Banks have now fully gotten themselves out from under what had been an extraordinarily wrong-footed net short position of over 146,000 contracts last autumn. They are now net long nearly 45,000 contracts! (And certainly more than that after last Wednesday and Friday.) That flip of 191,000 contracts took place while price declined by 30% from $1800 to $1250 and represents a change of position equaling over 595 metric tonnes.

Please, I beg you, remain patient and continue to stack physical metal. You will soon be rewarded with a rally that will surprise even the most ardent of bulls.

TF

https://news.goldseek.com/COT/1373312054.php

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/bank/DeaJuly13f.htm

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  141 Comments

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Howard Roark
Jul 9, 2013 - 6:38am

Turn upwards and Missiondweller

Regarding the bottom in gold coming - we should not forget that the annual cycle in the spot price is going up starting August (give or take), so it´s only natural (given the absolute caos in the markets and economies around the world) that some of the move starts in July. And for now the cycle down in the last months is in the trend with the last years. Even if the difference in spot price is bigger thanks to the EE and the April dump. Another thing that makes me go huummm with a rapid move up in the spot price of gold is that the governments (with the problems and challenges they face) they may put up a especial tax for the sale/buy of the metal. Or some capital gains tax when somebody sells the metal to buy say a house, or something. The state is the Evil, we need to see it and be ready to defend ourselves from it. @missiondweller I really hope You can go ahead with that project. In the recent past I thought to be a customer of PSchiff (and EuroPac with the gold account) but the fees were high for small, day-to-day operations so I quit. But the concept is right on. I wish You all the best with your project and keeps us posted. Salut and may the trip up begin, HR

S Roche
Jul 9, 2013 - 6:25am

GOFO

Negative 1M, 2M, 3M & 6M...gold yawns. So far no reaction, still early days.

philipat
Jul 9, 2013 - 1:17am

Does One Sense.....

....There is something BIG and very BAD brewing in the background and just about to break the surface? If so, we should know soon.

As I type this, AU is up almost $18 on GLOBEX? That just doesn't happen and is perhaps another indicator the the bottom is already in and the BB's are ready to shear the Hedgies?

Spartacus Rex
Jul 9, 2013 - 1:01am

Hyperinflation Has Struck Already 56 Times – It Could Hit Again

Gold Silver Worlds | July 9, 2013 Nick Barisheff, CEO of Bullion Management Group Inc. and author of the book $10,000 Gold: Why Gold’s Inevitable Rise Is the Investor’s Safe Haven did an recent interview with Investor’s Digest of Canada. In it, he explained how an hyperinflationary period does not occur by accident. It is rather a process which comes at the end of five stages. The pattern is recurring. This article covers the process which leads to hyperinflation and the answer to the question why Wall Street inclines to discredit the yellow metal.

Five stages towards hyperinflation

A history of paper currencies or, perhaps better, a study of inflation, is essential if we wish to understand the role gold plays as money. Almost every irredeemable paper cycle goes through the same stages from birth to death. The cycle begins life with the promise of healing all the country’s economic woes, while promising prosperity for all. It also promises to do this with the least amount of pain and discipline, which is why this phase is so appealing and so seductive. Although the cycle can vary, it appears countries that break free of gold, choosing instead to introduce fiat currencies, go through the following stages. Read the rest about the Five stages @

https://goldsilverworlds.com/money-currency/hyperinflation-has-struck-already-56-times-it-could-hit-again/
Spartacus Rex
Jul 9, 2013 - 12:57am

Telegraphing the Turnaround in Gold by Casey Research

As of last Friday, gold has now fallen as much 35.4% (based on London PM fix prices) over 96 weeks. But if you’re like us, you still recognize that the core reasons for investing in gold haven’t changed. People who sold their gold recently made a shortsighted decision. Before too long precious metals will rebound—and probably in a big way.

But when? Does history have any clues about how long we’ll have to wait for that rebound?

Perhaps the most constructive way to forecast a turnaround in gold is to look at how its price behaved in prior big corrections.

Here’s an updated view of gold’s three largest corrections since 2001, along with the time it took the price to return to the old high and stay above that level.

It has taken a significant amount time for gold to return to old highs after each big selloff this cycle. And the bigger the correction, the longer it has taken—with each correction lasting longer than the last.

However, I think our current correction more closely resembles what occurred in 1974-1976 than any of the dips so far this cycle. Here’s an updated overlay of the gold price then and now.

As you can see, during the big correction of the 1970s, gold declined 47% and took 187 weeks to recapture old highs. This fits in with the pattern discussed above: the bigger the correction, the lengthier the recovery. Another interesting pattern: the time to reach new highs always equals or exceeds the duration of the decline. Continue reading @ https://goldsilverworlds.com/price/telegraphing-the-turnaround-in-gold/

RightLeftWrong
Jul 9, 2013 - 12:09am

Sinclair - Chicago

Several hundred in attendance today. Jim received a standing O at the start. In addition to what was mentioned earlier in this thread regarding the meeting. A couple of additional pieces of info:

1. Gold trading bottom is in this week - he advises buying "good" gold shares this/next week - He says only about 30% of the companies are "good" and he says to contact him to learn more about which companies are the ones to own.

2. He said Barrick was for sale and that he had even been recently called to see if he wanted to buy it - he joked saying the "callers/sellers" were really slumming it by calling him.

3. He mentioned that Tanzanian Royalty expects 4/5 production deals in the next 18 months

4. Yra Harris was in the crowd - which I liked to see - showing some respect

5. Several of the questions were basic and really disappointing to hear asked.

For me - I got out of it what I was hoping for - I wanted to see what "WE" look like - who "WE" collectively are.

If I had to describe the crowd - it was predominantly male although there were plenty of teh fairer sex including one apparently very wealthy woman who asked whether she should store her LARGE hoard in 100 kilo bars or coins - Jim suggested bars. The crowd did have some ethnic diversity. I'd put the average age in the 50's - there were many people who appeared to be north of 60-65+

RLW

TomMack
Jul 9, 2013 - 12:03am

problem solved

now back to stacking and bottom picking

tyberious
Jul 8, 2013 - 11:49pm

$10,000 Gold

$10,000 Gold

Posted: 08 Jul 2013 04:08 AM PDT

I interviewed Nick Barisheff, who is calling for $10,000 gold. Normally, I shy away from these “sky-high” predictions but after seeing him interviewed more than once, I felt he presented a realistic and legitimate case.

Nick Barisheff is President and CEO of Bullion Management Group Inc., a bullion investment company that provides investors with a secure, cost-effective and transparent way to purchase and store individual Good Delivery gold, silver and platinum bullion bars. Recognized worldwide as a bullion expert, Barisheff is the author of $10,000 Gold: Why Gold’s Inevitable Rise is the Investor’s Safe Haven. He is a speaker and financial commentator on bullion and current market trends.

https://www.amazon.com/10-000-Gold-Inevitable-Investors/dp/1118443500/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1372352785&sr=8-1&keywords=10000+gold

For further information on the book, please visit: www.10000goldthebook.com

Here’s the interview:

Is the gold bull over or, as you contend in your new book, is it headed to $10,000 an ounce?

The first thing people have to realize is that no fiat currency, ever, has resulted in anything except decline followed by default, while gold has always maintained its value in mankind’s history of money exchange. Today we have a coordinated, and in terms of fiat currency creation epic, decline orchestrated by the world’s largest central banks. Debt-fueled fiat currency creation is among several long-term irreversible trends I spell out in $10,000 Gold. All of these trends have been in place since the late 1990s, when gold was trading below $300 an ounce.

2. What evidence can you put forward to support the case for gold in light of recent events?

There is no question gold is going to resume its bull market trend after blatant market interference in April and Fed jawboning in June about tapering bond purchases.

If you examine the April gold price decline, sales estimates for the COMEX on Friday April 12 and Monday April 15 were between 125 and 400 tonnes. It was, purely and simply, a deliberate paper gold attack as indicated by the size and speed of the sales that then triggered sell stops and margin calls. There are only a few large global institutions that could have flooded the market in that manner.

In June, this price raid on gold was reinforced by the idea that the U.S. Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, is somehow going to end his crescendo of computer-generated currency creation based on a mending economy. From German car sales being at a 20-year low to the slowdown in China’s GDP growth to Japan’s failing stock market to the U.S. record in food stamp usage, there is dominant evidence that the global economy is coming undone.

What people seem to have overlooked is the Fed Chairman’s admission that, should the economy worsen, he will expand, not taper or discontinue, quantitative easing. Observers such as John Williams at ShadowStats point to U.S. household income that’s flatlined since 2009. Williams has also stated that any talk of tapering is pure propaganda to placate global markets on the U.S. dollar while trying to suppress gold. [1]

3. If one supports the fact that the paper market has been manipulated and/or jawboned into temporary submission, what is the physical market signaling?

In India, one of the world’s most robust markets for physical gold, the government has tried to curb gold imports through a series of warnings, and now actual restrictions. Yet India’s national body of jewellers, the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation, says reports of gold smuggling at different airports in India rose by 2,200 percent last year. The GJF also stated that despite an increase in the import duty from 1 percent to 8 percent in January last year, gold consumption has gone up, not down. [2]

In the United States, even after the April gold price shock, the following month we noted that the 40 percent premium U.S. consumers were willing to pay for one-tenth ounce coins from the U.S. Mint priced gold at $1,932 an ounce, a physical price that is higher than the $1,900 an ounce record for paper gold set in 2011.

In China, the premium that gold buyers paid to take immediate delivery of bullion jumped four-fold in the six weeks following the gold price “crash.”[3]

If this were truly a natural correction or actual bear market, then physical gold market participants would be panic selling, not panic buying. Over the long term, these artificial declines in the price of paper gold are good for gold, because they allow a lot of big, smart, long-term investors to enter the markets. Allowing for what often is a slow summer season, I would not be surprised to see gold hit new highs before year end. 4. Let’s talk about more of the long-term irreversible trends in $10,000 Gold. What is the link that oil, population growth and the aging population have with the price of gold?

As I state in my book, the world’s rising population, aging population and outsourcing all create the need for more government debt to compensate for slowing growth, and increased government debt equals more currency, lower purchasing power and a higher gold price.

When natural economic growth does not come through productivity, or the manufacturing and production of natural resources, then the government must fuel growth through debt creation. In 2012, it cost the U.S. government $2.47 to grow its GDP by $1.00.

Despite the claims of energy independence because of shale oil in the United States, the world’s growth has been fueled by cheap land-based oil, located mainly in the Middle East. Oil sands and shale oil are extremely expensive to produce by comparison, and are therefore inflationary. Apart from currency printing creating inflation, the rising price of oil will also be inflationary because it is used for virtually everything.

These irreversible trends all impact growth negatively, reduce taxation revenues, cause inflation and require ever greater government expenditure, which lead to ever-increasing government debt. Therefore, the world’s citizens will suffer through increasing waves of currency debasement, which naturally causes the value of gold to appear stronger against currencies. 5. Is $10,000 gold a price limit in your mind?

We are in uncharted financial territory. If you look back over the history of fiat currencies it’s actually extraordinary. Several reputable analysts are calling for $10,000 gold, such as Société Générale’s Edward Alberts. Jim Sinclair, the man Barron’s labeled “Mr. Gold” because of his proven understanding of the gold market, has stated he expects gold to eventually trade at $50,000 an ounce.

Given systematic global currency debasement, people need to understand that it is not necessarily gold that will rise in value, but currencies that will lose value against gold. Yet due to the temporary manipulation of the paper gold price, I would suggest that those with foresight have a historic opportunity to acquire uncompromised physical gold.

Thank you Nick!

S Roche
Jul 8, 2013 - 11:46pm

@ T Mos

In 1999 after the Washington Agreement on Gold in September GOFO went negative -4%, a record, as the gold carry trade of the 90s unwound and gold shot up from $254 to $319, 25% in three weeks so I think plenty happened, but as you may have read Eddie George had a view on this and there was Central Bank intervention to save bullion banks who were caught short. They got gold back to $250ish, with Gordon Brown selling part of UK gold reserves creating the low, then GOFO went negative again in March 2001 and gold went from $250 to $300 pretty rapidly and here we are today.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Agreement_on_Gold

https://www.netdania.com/Products/live-realtime-streaming-currency-exchange-rates-charts/chart-forex-charts/ChartStation.aspx if you go to weekly you can see 1999 clearly, plenty of volatility.

1968 was the London Gold Pool when London closed for two weeks when their attempt to control money failed:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Gold_Pool

@philphat surely some mistake, ed.

Libero
Jul 8, 2013 - 11:46pm

Tyberious retirement follies

What you say is very nice but what really sucks is to have a sheltered retirement nest egg be a loss and then when you have to use the funds from it you have to pay 25-28% tax, that really hurts -a loss upon a loss.

I would strongly recommend to any new investor to invest in a Roth IRA as young as possible, forget about the tax deductions in a 401K or IRA. I was putting money into an IRA when I was in a low 18% bracket, what an idiot. Now what I take out is taxed at a higher rate. Do the Roth Do it Do it.

Nice to see metals move up at this time of night (EST). Enjoy....

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