An Amazing CoT and BPR for Gold

141
Mon, Jul 8, 2013 - 4:57pm

Released just this afternoon, the July Bank Participation Report and the latest Commitment of Traders Report are so interesting that I felt they justified this new post.

So, let's dive right in. I'm not going to spend much time talking about silver because the data is somewhat skewed this week by the expiration of the July13 contract. The Large Specs added 3800 net long and the Commercials added 3700 net short, all due to expiration and rollovers and now we see why silver outperformed gold by such a wide margin last week.

The reports for gold, on the other hand, are astonishing. Let's start with the CoT. For the reporting week, price fell by $32 while total OI rose by 19,752 contracts. Check out these internals:

Large Specs dumped another 6,200 longs and added 7,200 additional shorts. This brings their net position down to just 20,700 contracts and drops their total net long ratio down to a preposterously low 1.15:1. Again, for perspective, shortly after QE∞ was announced last fall, the gold Large Specs were net long over 210,000 contracts. This means that, in the time since, they've been coerced into dropping their long exposure by over 90%.

On the all-important flip side, The Gold Cartel added another 21,427 new longs last week through the Tuesday cutoff. Because they also added 8,995 new shorts, their net short position only declined by over 12,000 contracts. However...and here comes the amazing part...their new net short position is just 22,776 contracts, roughly 70 metric tonnes of paper gold, and their updated net short ratio is also preposterously low at 1.12:1.

Remember, this entire "event" from the announcement of QE∞ last fall to today, has been staged in order to give The Bullion Banks the time and the ability to cover their massive paper short position. When QE∞ was announced in September of last year, the total Cartel net short position was 737 metric tonnes of paper gold. As of last Tuesday, they are now net short just 70 metric tonnes. That's an incredible and amazing drop of over 90%.

Now get this, the CoT survey was taken last Tuesday. On Wednesday and Friday of last week, the total dollar move in gold was down another $32. Over those two days, the total open interest n gold rose by 18,561 contracts. It recent form follows, then it is safe to conclude that the vast majority of this new OI was contract initiation on the short side by the Large Specs. If that's the case, then we headed into last weekend with a total Gold Cartel net short position as low as 5,000 contracts. TOTAL!! And now you see why I find this so incredible and amazing.

Next let's consider this month's Bank Participation Report. This aggregated report gives us a once-a-month look at the gross positions of those traders classified as banks, both U.S. and non-U.S. Now check this out...let's start with the report from last October so that you can see from another perspective just how steep the changes have been in the nine months since.

GROSS LONG GROSS SHORT

U.S. Banks 40,625 146,809

Non U.S. Banks 34,881 113,445

TOTAL 75,506 248,254

And now here are the numbers from last month (June). Note that the banks had moved from net short position of 172,748 to a small net long position of 4,582. This got everyone's attention and was well summarized here: https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/06/cftc-gold-and-silver-bank-participation.html

GROSS LONG GROSS SHORT

U.S. Banks 56,751 27,129

Non U.S. Banks 24,035 49,075

TOTAL 80,786 76,204

Well, we've all been waiting with baited breath for the July report and it just came in a few minutes ago. Would the banks continue to cover on these falling prices or were they adding to the downside momentum? We got our answer:

GROSS LONG GROSS SHORT

U.S. Banks 69,565 24,939

Non U.S. Banks 34,904 58,565

TOTAL 104,560 83,859

The total net long position grew by over 16,000 contracts to an astounding 20,701. But drill a little deeper...The U.S. banks actually added net longs of 15,000! The only thing holding the overall net position in check was the 9,500 new shorts put on by non U.S. banks (HSBC? Scotia? Barclays? UBS?) Do you think that The Fed warns, plans and advises the non-U.S. banks as clearly and succinctly as they do the U.S. banks?? The Fed IS the U.S. Banks. If Barclays or UBS is too stupid to see what's going on and they are actually adding shorts at these prices, well Hells Bells, go right ahead! Their selling simply allows the U.S. Banks to cover even more!

Look, I know these past nine months have been brutal and we've all suffered through the almost-daily pain of continued losses. But this is almost over! Yes, prices may continue lower, stopping and turning who knows where. However, I am 100% confident in my analysis of The Big Picture here. The major, too-big-to-fail, Fed-Primary-Dealer and Bullion Banks have now fully gotten themselves out from under what had been an extraordinarily wrong-footed net short position of over 146,000 contracts last autumn. They are now net long nearly 45,000 contracts! (And certainly more than that after last Wednesday and Friday.) That flip of 191,000 contracts took place while price declined by 30% from $1800 to $1250 and represents a change of position equaling over 595 metric tonnes.

Please, I beg you, remain patient and continue to stack physical metal. You will soon be rewarded with a rally that will surprise even the most ardent of bulls.

TF

https://news.goldseek.com/COT/1373312054.php

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/bank/DeaJuly13f.htm

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  141 Comments

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SilverSurfers
Jul 10, 2013 - 6:41am

Turd

That flip of 191,000 contracts took place while price declined by 30% from $1800 to $1250 and represents a change of position equaling over 595 metric tonnes.

===

Everyone take note. Turd used the F*** Word, and in public of all things.

Its a go go. After 2.2 years of down, we need a vacation.

Vacation - The Go-go's

Week Ending June 30, JPM was demanded to go long Silver (June 22 Mad5Hatter). The COT strongly indicates a summer rally is just ahead. (July 3 tyberious) Hold on, the call is LIFT OFF of the silver rocket ship to the moon, (July 3 Mad5Hatter). Seasonals suggest end of August take off. (July 8, Mad5Hatter)
Commentary Posted, Indicates COT Flip. (July 10 Ferguson).
Post Time 6/30/13: and there they go, mad5Hatter calling the race.

July 1 19.65 July 2 19.38 July 3 19.72 July 5 18.90

Coming out of the Gate, Sham has an early lead by a head, Farce is in 2nd by a 1/2 length, Clown and Comedian running 3rd and 4th by a full length, next is Coupon and BankNote in 5th and 6th by a 1/4 length, with Gold and Silver trailing the pack.

July 8 19.07 July 9 19.26 July 10 July 11 July 12

Down the back Stretch, Sham opens the lead by 1/2 length … Comedian moves into 3rd by a head ....

The Hollies - On a Carousel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsSgduJrZXs
"SECRETARIAT" Greatest Race Horse of All Time - Kentucky Derby Preakness Belmont Stakes 1973 Video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlzHv-Kv8aU

===

For those interest in the "Libereens", tell me that was not brilliant?

https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/07/09/usa_and_the_libereens.t...

Introducing Homey D. Clown
homey d. clown-goes to school(in living color)
JPMoargan
Jul 10, 2013 - 12:01am

JPM House is Big Silver Stopper Night After Night

I find it rather odd that almost every night recently JPM House stands for delivery of a large number of silver contracts, but no one on this board (including Turd) or any other commentator like Ted Butler, Harvey Organ, Jeff Nielson, Bill Murphy, etc. has any comment on it.

On top of that, there is no resulting change in JPM's Registered silver balance at the Comex resulting from it.

https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsReport.pdf

All part of JPM's games with SLV???

unfashtandichNonoverlappingMagicCereal
Jul 9, 2013 - 11:06pm

@ non

My comments were more directed at TF,s willingness to call for higher metals prices even though it,s been delayed and derailed so many times. It doesn't take conviction to see the macroeconomic state of the world............just observation, and a little common sense.

JimymacRightLeftWrong
Jul 9, 2013 - 10:16pm

RLWrong- 800 + in attendance and

some very powerful and interesting attendee's

Green Lantern
Jul 9, 2013 - 9:21pm

@Argent, You mean will Toto

@Argent, You mean will Toto pull back the curtain to reveal a Wizard pulling the strings and whether the emerald city can be reached before a bankrupt populace falls into anarchy and a police state is imposed? Will Dorothy's house come down on the witch ? Will she realize the power of the ruby slippers (silver in the book) to save herself? One thing is for certain, when it's all said and done, this world is going to look much different than before it all started.

@Maravich, I've been called many things in my life. Never succinct.

Pretzel Logic by Donald Fagen w/ Michael McDonald Steely Dan
argent rampant
Jul 9, 2013 - 8:37pm

"It is not real money.

It only exists as a liability in the Fed's books. Money is actually created at commercial banks. " [But, again, only as a credit on somebody's account.]

Except for the FRN's out circulating in retail stores and ATM's, there IS no "real" money. Just bits & bytes... hypothecated "money". Could it evaporate in an instant?

Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
10/29 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/30 10:00 ET UMich Consmer Sentiment

SilverSurfers
Jul 9, 2013 - 8:20pm

of course

Please, I beg you, remain patient and continue to stack physical metal. You will soon be rewarded with a rally that will surprise even the most ardent of bulls.

===

you bet. Would that be called a COT flip?

Mötley Crüe - Wild Side (Official Music Video)
maravich44Green Lantern
Jul 9, 2013 - 7:55pm

hey Lantern...

that was incredibly succinct.(always wanted to use that word) ..to you. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoBH00oJa2M

Green Lantern
Jul 9, 2013 - 7:41pm

Reserves are not what the

Reserves are not what the word implies. It's not a stack of cash sitting in the Fed's vaults. There is a guy with a computer who presses a button and credits the banks account. The money is never really printed. The bank who receives the credit in it's Fed Account. It is not real money. It only exists as a liability in the Fed's books. Money is actually created at commercial banks. Money is only printed when somebody calls in a credit. All the metaphors such as "the printing press's" "dropping fiat from helicopters" are just that metaphors.

It's all smoke and mirrors!!

Strongsidejedidepartment of truth
Jul 9, 2013 - 6:21pm

@Department of Truth

Take a listen to the Jim Puplava interview this week with Brad Thor

https://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/guest-expert/201...

As Jim talks with Brad Thor about his book that covers a hypothetical threat, they discuss the fact that the "Federal Reserve Bank" is neither "Federal" nor "has reserves". I'd like to suggest that it's also "not a bank" in the traditional sense of a bank.

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
10/29 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/30 10:00 ET UMich Consmer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
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10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
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10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
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10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
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10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
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9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
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9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
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9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
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9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
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9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

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