The Third of July

Wed, Jul 3, 2013 - 1:11pm

Just a few items as we await a U.S. holiday tomorrow and the market logic holiday of BLSBS Friday.

The bounce in the metals has continued as we've moved through the week. It ain't much but we'll take it. At first glance, you would think it is primarily short covering but the total open interest in gold has been growing all week, which is quite a change from the recent past. In fact, since the market puke of $45 last Wednesday, the total OI in gold has grown by over 17,000 contracts as price has recovered by some $25. If you are looking searching praying hoping for signs of a bottom, growing OI with a rising price should be something that gets your attention. Additionally, DenverDave thinks we might have seen The Low, too: We'll see. The BLSBS and the reaction to it will go a long way toward determining if The Lows are in. For now, this chart looks OK but gold really needs to get back above $1300 before we can begin to relax a bit.

Silver presents a bit of a contrasting picture to gold. It's hourly chart looks like a reverse head-and-shoulder bottom but its OI is shrinking. Now much of this is directly related to July expiration last week...but...still. If the gold OI is rising on higher prices, I'd like to see silver doing the same thing. However, since the big drop last Wednesday, silver has recovered more than $1 while its OI has fallen by nearly 1,300 contracts. So this does look like short covering, at least at the surface. Let's see what the CoT report shows before jumping to any conclusions. Because of the holiday, this week's report basis yesterday, won't be released until freaking Monday! What a joke!! (Can you see now why the CoT is not a trading indicator? The info, once it's released. is stale. Helpful, but stale nonetheless.)

And the GLD continues to be drained, now down 28.54% since the first of the year. This is particularly curious given that the SLV "inventory" is only down 1.77%. In fact, in terms of sheer tonnage, the GLD has shed twice as much gold than SLV has shed silver. The GLD has dropped 385 metric tonnes of "gold" while the SLV has only dropped 179 metric tonnes of silver. Someday soon I'll make another post with row upon row of gold pallets in order to show just how much gold this is. For today, though, suffice it to say that 385.26 metric tonnes is 12,386,396 troy ounces OR 30,966 London good delivery bars OR slightly more than 161 of these: (That's a lot.)

All of the action and excitement is in crude this morning as the world watches developments in Egypt. The breakout to $102 is out of concern for supply disruptions through The Suez Canal and it's likely overblown. Let's see if crude can hold above $100 as we go through the rest of this week.

Speaking of Egypt, our pal Jim Quinn wrote an excellent article yesterday that made it all the way to The Drudge Report. If you haven't seen it yet, you can read it here: The story that is being ignored by the mainstream media is that, once again, America is backing the wrong dog in the fight. Seemingly working under the adage "the devil you know is better than the devil you don't", the U.S. clings to support of Morsi while the future leaders of Egypt fume.

Which leads us back to U.S. Independence Day. Two hundred thirty seven years ago today, 56 gentlemen were meeting in Philadelphia, crafting the document which would declare American independence from British tyranny. The final text began with these two paragraphs:

"When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security."

Eleven years later, after independence was won, a constitution was drafted and approved which set The United States of America as a beacon of hope and freedom for the entire world. Sadly, that light is being rapidly diminished. Has the current government become "destructive of these ends"? "Prudence will dictate" that changes should not be pursued "for light and transient causes". For me, the "abuse and usurpation" of nearly every Amendment to The Bill of Rights would seem to have placed us "under absolute Despotism". Therefore, it becomes "our right and duty to provide new Guards for our future security".

To this end and with firm reliance upon the protection of Divine Providence, I am prepared to pledge my life, my fortune and my sacred honor. Are you?


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 3, 2013 - 1:15pm

1st !

1st !

Jul 3, 2013 - 1:21pm


Top ten. Make that a second. Just dumped the fish guts and right on time.

Jul 3, 2013 - 1:21pm



I'm buying a lotto ticket! NOT!

Jul 3, 2013 - 1:27pm


Small pleasures in life...

Dyna mo hum
Jul 3, 2013 - 1:31pm
Gold Dog
Jul 3, 2013 - 1:32pm


Of July!

"You could blow your hand off!"- My Mom


EDIT- Place on ground, light fuse, get away. <----Loose suggestion at best!

Double Edit- Where can I get one of those bitchin green lasers?

Jul 3, 2013 - 1:32pm

A most powerful end!!

Here! Here! I so to pledge my dying breath to the cause and rebirth of this once great republic!

The Watchman
Jul 3, 2013 - 1:33pm


Silver Chart

Below, is a silver chart from 2006 to 2013 (generated at

Silver is currently retesting its important breakout area of 2010 (similar to the gold/silver ratio). That breakout area of 2010 appears to be a critical area. If this area holds (which is very likely), then silver is likely to start a massive multi-month rally. Additional analysis is contained in my premium service.

Remember that these are massive patterns, so much patience is needed.

Jul 3, 2013 - 1:35pm

The Fifth Amendment...

Unfotunately abused by our (innocent?) government servants and representatives to avoid the truth of their misdeeds.

"No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offense to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation"


El Gordo
Jul 3, 2013 - 1:38pm

Name me one...

...politician in Washington that would give up just one item, his life, his liberty, or his personal fortune for the good of this nation? Of course, they all long ago gave up their honor, so I guess it's not all bad. Happy Independence Day America - may we one day enjoy it again.

Gold Dog
Jul 3, 2013 - 1:43pm

Turd, My Friend...

...I will stand with you.

Live free or die!

Gold Dog

PS- Bugger off you bloated defilers of OUR Bill of Rights derived from Natural Law!!

Jul 3, 2013 - 1:46pm

I choose to take my stand...

not behind you but, beside you.

"If life so dear and peace so sweet, to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery, forbid it all-mighty god. I no not what course others may take but, as for me, give me liberty or give me death!"

Onward Patriots!

Jul 3, 2013 - 1:48pm
Jul 3, 2013 - 1:56pm

Tom Cloud on phyzz demand . . .

"Hard asset expert Tom Cloud has spotted a clear trend with “the lions share” of his 2,000 high net worth clients. Cloud says, “I had a client the other day who liquidated a several million dollar position in an ETF because he said it’s time to put gold and silver in my hand. . . . People, the wealthier they are, want to get physical gold and silver in their hands.” Cloud is far from alone in his observation. Cloud reports, “I was talking to a major wholesaler last week, when the price was going down, and I asked how many orders have you had today? He said 560. I asked how many have sold to you? He said 20.” Cloud says delivery times for gold and silver bullion are unusually long. When supplies of precious metals are plentiful, Cloud says, “It would be in my hand in three to five days. . . Now, depending on the product, it’s two and a half to six weeks.” Cloud says the only two other times supply has been this tight was “1980 and 2008.” Cloud contends, “Supplies are tight and fear is high. I see it getting worse this fall.”

site is:

Jul 3, 2013 - 2:02pm

Longer wait on ASEs . . .

My main dealer, ColoradoGold now shows a 40 day wait to receive ASEs, after payment has cleared. They buy from A-Mark, one of the biggest wholesalers in the country.

Nearly 6 weeks! How much silver does the mint put out in 6 weeks time? Lots of demand for phyzz . . .

Jul 3, 2013 - 2:07pm


I heard an idiot on TV talking about the revolution as a war against a foreign country. England was not a foreign country. Colonists were citizens of the crown. On April 19, 1775 when the minute men fired on the redcoats at Concord and Lexington, they were firing on their fellow citizens. They were committing treason. The men that signed the Declaration of Independence knew that if they were not successful they would be dead. Many of them and their families suffered from their actions. One even aimed a cannon at his own home that occupied by the British. And they did not receive payments from the government for their losses.

Can you imagine the crooks that run our government today making any decision for the good of the country that would cost them in any way? If they were there in 1776 they would not know what to do anyway because there were no polls to consult and no high paid political consultants to tell them what say and do.

Jul 3, 2013 - 2:11pm


I am prepared. I'm in!yes

Jul 3, 2013 - 2:12pm


First? No, second. angry

Jul 3, 2013 - 2:18pm

Think it goes without saying....

after the Snowdon revelations(we have already most likely) pledged our lives, fortunes, and honor. "We must all hang together, or surely we will all hang separately!"

Jul 3, 2013 - 2:18pm

I am prepared . . .

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness." ------------------------------------------------------------ From the Declaration of Independence--what the 4th of July celebrations are all about. . . . whenever any form of government becomes destructive . . . are we there yet?

Mr. Fix
Jul 3, 2013 - 2:20pm

Happy Independence Day to everyone here.

With the particular mindset of this community, I know that independence and liberty are of more value here, then the population at large. I will take the next few days to reflect on where our country has been, why it was founded, and where it is apparently headed in the foreseeable future. I intend to do my best to prepare accordingly.

Dear Xty:

Did you catch all those stories about Janet Napolitano hiring and commanding 15,000 Russian troops on American soil Yet?

Much more linked at DOTS.

All the things that you felt were either outrageous, paranoid, or delusional, are coming to pass before our eyes.

As things begin to get increasingly dicey, I will be focusing more on family, friends, minding my own business, and keeping a low profile.

Please take the time this weekend, to spread the word with friends and family in as delegate a way as you feel to be appropriate, that things are not as they appear to be, and America's independence maybe no more than an illusion at this point.

Carry on.

Jul 3, 2013 - 2:25pm

Posted the other day but bears repeating . . .

"The real menace of our Republic is the invisible government which like a giant octopus sprawls its slimy legs over our cities, states and nation. At the head is a small group of banking houses... This little coterie... runs our government for their own selfish ends. It operates under cover of a self-created screen... seizes... our executive officers... legislative bodies... schools... courts... newspapers and every agency created for the public protection." -John F. Hylan, Mayor of New York, 1918-1925


The Declaration of Independence instructs us to remove offensive government. As far back as 1925, people saw that when the bankers run the government, things go bad. We are there now, in spades.

Jul 3, 2013 - 2:26pm
Dyna mo hum
Jul 3, 2013 - 2:29pm

Places some of us have been hearing

about for years now "detention centers" I think the welcome mat is being rolled out now .

Jul 3, 2013 - 2:29pm

A lighter Independence Day story

At one time I was a CFO of a publicly held company with a 6/30 year end. So I had to work on July 4th to meet our reporting deadlines. One year the night bell bell on the phone rang and I answered it. It was David, our distributor in the UK. He was always the very proper (pompous) British gentleman. Also bankrupt I found out later, but that is another story. The conversation went like this:

David: Keg, what are you doing answering the phone?

Me: Hi David. Today is a holiday here and the only people working are a few of us in the accounting department.

David: What holiday is that?

Me: David, in the United States we call today Independence Day.

David: Oh, right.

A few years later we opened our own subsidiary in England. One day I was riding with the managing director of our office there and we passed a historical marker that said something about that place being the home of George Washington's ancestors. I expressed my surprise that Washington's family's home would be noted. He replied, "Yes, we even honor our traitors."

Jul 3, 2013 - 2:32pm

And for the CoT week...

Gold was down down $31 yet it OI was up 19,700.

Silver was down 23¢ and its OI was down 4,500. Into and including the July13 expiration, it will be quite interesting to see how the silver CoT changes on Monday.

Jul 3, 2013 - 2:33pm
AGAU tyberious
Jul 3, 2013 - 2:34pm

a most powerful end....

These reptilian slime balls have been here all along the way, they will not be easily removed, I'm afraid they own the "government" , they jerk the chains and the lapdogs jump, they make the rules and obey none

Stack on bro's



The charter for the Rothschilds Bank of the United States runs out and Congress votes against its renewal. Nathan Mayer Rothschild is not amused and he states,

“Either the application for renewal of the charter is granted, or the United States will find itself involved in a most disastrous war.”

However the United States stands firm and the Charter is not renewed, which causes Nathan Mayer Rothschild to issue another threat,

“Teach those impudent Americans a lesson. Bring them back to colonial status.”


Backed by Rothschild money, and Nathan Mayer Rothschild’s orders, the British declare war on the United States. The Rothschilds plan was to cause the United States to build up such a debt in fighting this war that they would have to surrender to the Rothschilds and allow the charter for the Rothschild owned First Bank of the United States to be renewed.

Shit there's those SUV's again!!! -- why are those guys wearing dark glasses the sun ain't up yet ?????

Jul 3, 2013 - 2:36pm


Do you really need to ask?

Jul 3, 2013 - 2:38pm

Deterioration of America

Back in high school (1980s) I was shocked and disappointed when my Social Studies teacher stated that America had already peaked as a society. I, like many, couldn't fathom that America was on the downhill. I have since revisited that thought numerous times and concluded that my teacher was undoubtedly correct. Now what concerns me is the rate at which we are deteriorating.

I would compare our society's path to the parabola. We started out slowly and then accelerated making large gains until we peaked (1950s?). The downside of the parabola and deterioration of society has been similar. It started slowly with some minor corruption in business and politics and has since picked up a lot of steam.

In the 1980s and 1990s we had the Iran-Contra affair and the Savings and Loan crisis, which now pales in comparison to what the banks have done in the last 5 years. Jeff Skilling of the Enron fraud and infamy probably wouldn't even do time today. Clinton having an affair and lying was impeachable offense and I was outraged at the time. (Clinton's infractions now seem meaningless.) Bush started an unnecessary war and let Wall Street rob the taxpayers blind. Now we spy on our own citizens, use the IRS as a political tool and use drones to kill on the president's authority. Due process is a forgotten concept. Enforcement of law only applies when it does not involve the rich and politically connected. At this rate imagine where we will be in another five years!

Where do we go from here? I believe we as a society will hit bottom about the same time as the dollar is destroyed. I have been reluctant to hope for that destruction because it will not be pretty. But if things break down far enough, and we re-establish sound money and the rule of law, maybe I'll live to see better days. Maybe my children and grandchildren will see a society on the upswing.

Until then I encourage us all to bring some kindness into each day no matter how small. Live with integrity and celebrate those leaders who demonstrate integrity. Teach family values to our children and the importance of savings. Someday society will again need and embrace people who are capable of doing the right thing no matter the personal cost. Until then; hug your children and parents, build friendships, prepare for the worst, pray for better, and try to be an example for the next generation.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 2/11

2/12 12:45 ET GCP speaks
2/13 8:30 ET CPI and three Goon speeches
2/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales (December)
2/14 8:30 ET PPI
2/15 8:30 ET Import Price Index
2/15 9:15 ET Cap. Util. & Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 2/4

2/5 8:30 ET Trade Balance
2/5 9:45 ET Service PMIs
2/5 9:00 pm ET Trump SOTU
2/6 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
2/6 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
2/7 9:30 ET Goon Clarida speech
2/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/28

1/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
1/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
1/31 8:30 ET Personal Inc, Cons. Spending and Core Inflation
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
2/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
2/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
2/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending

Recent Comments

by Maestro, 7 min 23 sec ago
by Marcus, 32 min 30 sec ago
by Marcus, 52 min 55 sec ago
by AGAU, 1 hour 23 min ago
by Turd Ferguson, 1 hour 40 min ago