New From Sprott: "Have We Lost Control...Yet?"

147
Fri, Jun 28, 2013 - 9:30am

Hot off the presses, here is the latest from Sprott Asset Management.

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Have we lost control yet?
By Eric Sprott & Etienne Bordeleau


Recent comments by the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke have shocked the world financial markets. It all started on May 22nd, 2013, at a Testimony to the US Congress Joint Economic Committee, where he first hinted at tapering the Fed’s quantitative easing (QE) program. Then, on Wednesday, June 19th, during the press conference following the FOMC meeting, the Chairman outlined the Fed’s exit strategy from QE.

Since the first allusion to tapering, volatility has been on the rise across the board (stocks, currencies and bonds) (Figure 1A). Moreover, the yield starved, hot money that had flown to emerging markets has been rushing for the exits, triggering significant declines in emerging market (EM) equity and bond markets (Figure 1B). Finally, the prospect of the end of monetary accommodation has triggered rapid and significant decreases (increases) in the price (yield) of longer dated Treasury bonds (also Figure 1B).

FIGURE 1A: VOLATILITY INCREASING FIGURE 1B: ASSET PRICES DECLINING


It has been clear to us for some time that the Fed was uncomfortable with the relative certainty (i.e. Bernanke Put) that has prevailed in the markets since the introduction of QE-infinity last fall. Officials definitely wanted the market to start thinking about a future without non-conventional monetary policy. However, we seriously doubt that the resulting chaos is what they had anticipated. This was evident in the Chairman’s response to a journalist’s question about the rapid rise in rates, saying the FOMC was “a little puzzled by that”.1 The genie is really out of the bottle now.

Indeed, we believe that the recent “market appeasement rhetoric” by James Bullard and Narayana Kocherlakota (Presidents of the St. Louis and Minneapolis Federal Reserve, respectively)2,3 are further proof that the Federal Reserve has realized it went too far and that it is now in damage control mode. (Update: William Dudley, President of the New York Fed mentioned in a June 27th speech that “asset purchases would continue at a higher pace for longer” if the economy was to grow slower than the FOMC’s estimate)4.

However, as the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) so elegantly put it in its most recent annual report, “[…] central banks continue to borrow time for others to act. But the cost-benefit balance is inexorably becoming less and less favourable.” To this they add: “expectation that monetary policy can solve these problems [deleveraging, financial stability] is a recipe for failure”.5 Clearly, the Federal Reserve knows this and wants to exit their QE program. But can they really?

A large portion of the current economic growth depends on housing. However, mortgage rates are closely tied to long-term treasury rates. While housing affordability is still relatively good because of low house prices, significantly higher mortgage rates might slow the housing market. Furthermore, banks are still very cautious about lending and most borrowers have difficulty accessing credit. While gentle increases in yields are good for banks (who lend long and borrow short), meteoric increases in yields (as in Figure 1B) are damaging because they are hard to hedge and create large losses on the banks securities portfolios (mostly composed of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities) as well as mark-to-market losses on their derivatives portfolios. So, the large and rapid increases in rates the talk of tapering has engendered will damage the economic growth the Fed has been working so hard to engineer, potentially requiring even more stimulus down the line.

The US government itself would also suffer from increases in yields. In its Annual Report, the BIS shows that even a small increase in interest rates would have a large impact on the projected government debt-to-GDP ratio. As shown in Figure 2, under the CBO’s base case scenario (bottom line), the US debt-to- GDP ratio would hover around 110%, whereas a 1% increase in rates would take it to 118% in 10 years (middle line). According to the Chairman’s comments, the fiscal drag that has been partly to blame for the lackluster performance of the economy should subside going forward. But, larger debt servicing costs (because of higher rates) will put more pressure on government finances, forcing it to spend an ever increasing portion of its budget on interest payments. This will have the effect of increasing the fiscal drag, going against the hopes of the Fed.

FIGURE 2: U.S. GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT PROJECTIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS - AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP


To add to all this uncertainty, the situation in the Euro Zone’s periphery is far from stabilized. Following the surprise Cyprus bail-in, international bank regulators have made a push for a democratization of this alternative to outright government bail-outs of banks. This idea is quickly gaining traction amongst central planners. We recently discussed the shortcomings of the BIS’s “Template For Recapitalising Too-Big-To- Fail Banks”.6 The BIS, again in its annual report, reiterated that “we need resolution regimes to make it possible for large, complex institutions to fail in an orderly way.” As uninsured depositors and bank bond holders realize that they do not benefit from government guarantee anymore, bank funding costs will rise and funding might dry up for peripheral European banks.

Conclusion: At the last FOMC meeting, by prematurely announcing the timeline and the specifics of an exit from QE, Bernanke might have lost control of rates and volatility. The current US economic growth is still feeble and hinges on housing, which would be slowed down by raising rates. Banks, while better capitalized than pre-crisis, are still not lending to most borrowers and would be dearly affected by too fast increases in rates. Moreover, European woes still threaten the stability of the international financial system and the recent rush to the exit might further exacerbate funding pressures for weak European banks. Finally, the US government (amongst others) debt load, while already unsustainable, would keep on climbing if rates were to increase only by 100bps.

The chaotic reaction by market participants and the corresponding increase in yields now risks destabilizing this very fragile equilibrium. It is yet unclear whether or not the damage control from the other Fed Presidents will put a lid on yields and market volatility, or if the damage to the Fed’s (poorly executed) exit strategy is permanent.

1 https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20130619.pdf
2 https://www.stlouisfed.org/newsroom/displayNews.cfm?article=1829
3 https://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/pub_display.cfm?id=5128
4 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-27/dudley-says-qe-may-be-prolonge...
5 83rd Annual Report, Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 23 June 2013, pages 4 and 6.
6 We discuss this in the Sprott Thoughts article: “The Dijssel_Bomb”. https://sprottgroup.com/thoughts/articles/the-dijssel-bomb

About the Author

Founder
tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()

  147 Comments

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philipat
Jun 29, 2013 - 5:08am

@KingSpart

On the earlier matter, and your response along the lines of "A fool and his money". Yes, but when you are free you are free. There are many who don't accept being "Owned" and being "Tax Donkeys" and regard the (One time) cost as being an acceptable cost for freedom outside "The land of the free".

Horses for courses?

philipat
Jun 29, 2013 - 5:03am

@King Spart

Hennessy XO is great cognac, BUT I still prefer Martell Cordon Blue (Not even the Martell XO). It's just my taste, The more expensive cognacs, IMHO, are not worth the extra cost, but just a marketing exercise aimed mostly at the Chinese. Who drink it in enormous amounts. With ICE. WTF???

SilverSurfers
Jun 29, 2013 - 4:51am

Pulling Out all the Stops

George W Bush HERO FYI ----- Forwarded Message ----- From: Derrick Michael Reid <w2_5hs_3c_xfers[at]yahoo[dot]com> To: GOP USA <info[at]gop[dot]com> Sent: Saturday, June 29, 2013 1:30 AM Subject: Stopping Socialism in America
GOP Frankly stated, you guys are the better of the two major political parties. I stood alone campaigning for Bush in 2004 in Laguna Beach CA. Its pay back time. If you want the senate back in 2014, throw some support my way. Your guys get to attend national rallies in consideration, for the hoopla, and for a congressional sweep. Re: Stopping Socialism in America

Sir,

Do you want to stop the spread of socialism and all those who pander it? If so, do you know who, where, how and by whom to strike at the heart totalitarian socialism for immediate concrete results? If not, then I am your attack dog, who is seeking to do the same. Totalitarians enslave the people as tax mules or state dependents, by income taxes and printable paper money. Income tax changes are not politically feasible at this time. Printable paper money is vulnerable if the alternative real gold and silver money is freed from price manipulation. Real money use forces balance budgets and that is the route to stopping corrupting socialism and totalitarianism. I can end real money price manipulation and just need and am asking for a little help.

Sincerely, Derrick Michael Reid BS JD

========================= The Dream Team ==================
Eric King =============== Broadcaster Dream Team
Chris Powell ============ Broadcaster Dream Team
Greg Hunter ============= Broadcaster Dream Team
Bill Murphy ============= Plaintiff Dream Team Lemetropolecafe
Turd Ferguson =========== Plaintiff Dream Team TFMetalsreport
Bill Haynes ============= Plaintiff Dream Team CMI Gold&Silver
Thor Gjerdrum =========== Plaintiff Dream Team AMark
James Hausman =========== Plaintiff Dream Team Gold Center
Brian Crumbaker ========= Plaintiff Dream Team Goldline
James Turk ============== Expert Dream Team
Richard Guthrie ========= Expert Dream Team
James Rickards ========== Expert Dream Team
Grant Williams ========== Expert Dream Team
Eric Sprott ============= Expert Dream Team
Ben Davies ============== Expert Dream Team
William Kaye ============ Expert Dream Team
Sandeep Jaitly ========== Expert Dream Team
Andrew McGuire ========== Expert Dream Team
===========================================================
Cover Page
A Proposal to Terminate Bullion Manipulation
A Plan for Ridding from the Bullion Space,
the mob boss JPM and the Gold Cartel, for
Terminating Bullion Price Manipulation.
Confidential Copyright Derrick Michael Reid 2013 4th Edition
===========================================================
Table of Contents
===========================================================
Cover Page, Ending Manipulation ---------------- Page 1
Table of Contents ------------------------------ Page 2
Title Page, The Dream Team, Tentative ---------- Page 3
Overview, Injunction Strategy ------------------ Page 4
Case Caption, Brief Form ----------------------- Page 5
Complaint Body, Brief Form --------------------- Page 6
List of Characters, Tentative ------------------ Pages 7-10
Table of Aspects, Generally Stated ------------- Pages 11-144
Appendix, Posted Comments of REID -------------- Attached
===========================================================
Title Page
A Proposal to Terminate Bullion Manipulation
The Dream Team

Turd Ferguson Bill Haynes Thor Gjerdrum
Plaintiff Plaintiff Plaintiff
tfmetalsreport.com CMI Gold & Silver AMark

William Murphy Brian Crumbaker James Hausman
Plaintiff Plaintiff Plaintiff
lemetropolecafre.com GoldLine Gold Center

Derrick Michael Reid Attorney Attorney
Of Counsel Proximal Counsel Distal Counsel
totalcontrol.com Not Selected Preferably Selected

Primary Counsel Secondary Counsel Tertiary Counsel
Chicago Law Firm Chicago Law Firm Chicago Law Firm
Not Selected Not Selected Not Selected

Andrew McGuire William Kaye James Turk
Coghan Capital Pacific Group Gold Money
Primary Expert Primary Expert Primary Expert

Sandeep Jaitly Ben Davies Richard Guthrie
Bullion Basis Hindsight Capital LeMetropoleCafe
Secondary Expert Secondary Expert Secondary Expert

William Grant James Rickards Eric Sprott
Things that go Hmm Tagent Capital Sprott Assets
Tertiary Expert Tertiary Expert Tertiary Expert

versus
J P Morgan Chase Inc.
Jamie Diamond
Blythe Masters
Defendants
===========================================================
Sir, It is time to fill the rooster. You may pass along as you desire. Anyone may pass this on to a lead or notable. Tally Ho! War has been declared on the Gold Cartel, and JPM is the prime target. This is war. We extend no courtesy, no mercy, and no pity, and take no prisoners, as we fly the black flag into battle. The HQ Communications center is: W2_5hs_3c_xfers[at]yahoo[dot]com
===========================================================
Mr X CEO Sprott Global Carlsbad, California
Sir,
It has been two difficult months, since the 4/29/2013 brainwave, but I went public with it. If successful, it will solve J Embry and E Sprott problems, and will solve many others' problems as well, mostly resolved by societal feedback loops. It took about 2 months, drafting the Coded Draft, perfecting marketing method implementations, and rewriting that coded draft into an English version. Next week the proposal is going to an editor for editing, so activation starts this July.

Taking down JPM is something J Embry and E Sprott would want to hear about. But, I am sure they would like some screening up front, and you are selected for that purpose.

So, the week after 6/30/2013, I could come down to Carlsbad for the entire day, as you deem fit and wish. The plan is fairly well organized and covers the bases. It would be best reviewed for rapid appraisal by one knowing the bullion space and a legal mind, and think it best you organize a team, as you wish, and send up a car to get me and take me to your Carlsbad facility, driving and thinking for me is a huge no no. The basic thrust is on line as a marketing tool for advance review and funding, but it lacks specifics necessary, but would give you and others attending an advance read and understanding. I would also transmit that 142 page, single line spaced proposal to you personally, confidentially for an advanced review in advance of a planned conference at your facility.

J Embry is the preferred confidential FINANCIER, and thus he is in the cross hairs, sort of speak, and is why I am writing you now. Mr J Embry and E Sprott would want to see a polished English plan of taking JPM completely out of the bullion space, as a first strike on destroying the Gold Cartel.

So, if you desire, accordingly, I am available after 6/30/2013, any time.
Sincerely, It is an honor to be your obedient servant Derrick Michael Reid, BS JD Laguna Beach California, W2_5hs_3c_xfers[at]yahoo[dot]com
===========================================================
For your reference:
===========================================================
https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/
https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/06/03/usa_nova_slang.thtml
https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/06/12/usa_freedom_v_tbtf_tbtj...
https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/06/06/usa_strike_on_the_evil_...
https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/06/25/usa_conventional_thinki...
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/users/silversurfers
https://lemetropolecafe.com/CFFORUM/viewmessages.cfm?forum=7&topic=2221
https://forum.astroempires.com/viewtopic.php?f=99&t=111935
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4710/broader-perspective?page=10
https://usawatchdog.com/us-back-to-a-gold-standard-catherine-austin-fitts/
===========================================================
Plaintiffs, Experts and Consultants
===========================================================
There are many Gold Notables. Plaintiffs include service providers, retailers and wholesalers. Service providers provide URL cites with members who can regularly post comments as a private club of members. The two preferred service providers are TFMetalsreport and Lemetropolecafe. Plaintiffs preferably number six and have been identified in the dream team. Other unknown service providers can be listed as possible plaintiffs. Two retailers have been identified in the dream team. Other retailers can be listed possible plaintiffs. Two wholesalers have been identified in the dream team. Other wholesalers can be listed possible plaintiffs.

There are nine listed primary, secondary, and tertiary experts. Other possible experts can be listed as standby experts, and be used as replacement or supporting experts. Others in the field can be listed as consultants to the case. These possible plaintiffs, standby experts and consultants generally have specific expertise within the field. Possible Plaintiffs and Standby Experts may be interviewed with supporting declarations prepared as supporting members of the TEAM and acts as replacements or added TEAM members to add weight to the cause. Consultants are behind the scene supporting experts, out of the lime light, and their names and roles kept confidential, but can be used to provide input to support the case.
===========================================================
List of Supporting TEAM members
===========================================================
Plaintiffs, named complainers of Record
Possible Plaintiffs, replacement Plaintiffs and Experts
Experts, named experts of Record
Standby Experts, replacement Experts and Supporting Experts
Consultants, Confidential Experts for Case Supports
===========================================================
Plaintiffs, Counsel, and Experts share in any settlement
only when officially made of record in the case.
===========================================================
If you are a "Gold Notable" and would qualify as an expert in the bullion space, volunteers are most gladly accepted and welcome.
===========================================================
There is no reason we cant be civil.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0CdcCnLdtE
===========================================================
Problems: Greed, Socialism, Totalitarianism, Fraud, Immigration, Fascism, Electioneering, Greed, Socialism, Totalitarianism, Fraud, Immigration, Fascism, Electioneering, Greed, Socialism, Totalitarianism, Fraud, Immigration, Fascism, Electioneering, Greed, Socialism, Totalitarianism, Fraud, Immigration, Fascism, Electioneering, Government, Government, Government, Government, Government, Government, Government, Government, and More-Government, To-Much-Government, and Way-To-Much Government.
===========================================================
Solutions: Abolish all Federal Social Programs, Federal Pay-and-Forget Sales Tax Exclusivity, State In-Rem Property Tax Exclusivity, Real Gold and Silver Coinage Money Exclusivity, Pay Off All Federal and State Present and Future Obligations with 100T FRNs, State Social Safety Nets, Out Law Federal and State Bonds, Out Law Federal and State Debt, Out Law Federal and State Fiscal Deficits, Abolish Paper Money, Abolish Federal Reserve Notes, Redeem FRNs at more than $1,000,000.00 per gold ounce, Abolish the Federal Reserve Bank, Reward Productivity, Penalize Unproductivity, Free the People From Government, and Restore the Republic.
===========================================================
An attack plan has been devised. The attack plan is to first take down JPM in six months for 6m$ with a 2-5x ROR to the financier. The attack plan is characterized by a narrow front tort claim attack, in depth attack using six plaintiffs, brought in equity, using rapid fire filings, to end TBTF TBTJ Wall Street fascism over the US Government and its people, where morality is the key issue in play, totally outside the box and totally untraditional and unconventional, which is pretty ridiculous to traditional and conventional thinkers, like 99.999% of the people, and in so doing, solve nearly all of the country's problems, lasting and long term. I tell you all, it is a lonely world being 3 sigma anomalous psychological 5 Hatter, aggressive 5 experts in one, and totally ridiculous to conventional people. But hey, I know I'm right, way right, if not reactionary, and I wont stop believing.
===========================================================
Journey-Dont Stop Believing (official song) with lyrics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5wVZwdHmRY
=========================================================== Pals at the local bridge club.
So, do they all talk a good game? Lets see. Thomas Peterffy
David Siegal
Steve Wynn
Leon Cooperman
Steve Schwarzman
Sheldon Adelson
Harold Simmons RIP
Charles Koch
B Wayne Hughes
Kenneth Langone
Rich Devos
Joe Ricketts
Bernard Marcus
Mortimer Zuckerman
Donald Trump
Steve Forbes
Gina Rinehart
Larry Tisch
Rob Walton
Boone Pickens
Meg Whitman
Phil Anshutz
Dan Cathy
Mel Gibson
Ruth Caleb
Rupert Murdoch This is what you call pounding the payment in the 21st Century. Re: Stopping Socialism in America Sir,
Do you want to stop the spread of socialism and all those who pander it? If so, do you know who, where, how and by whom to strike at the heart totalitarian socialism for immediate concrete results? If not, then I am your attack dog, who is seeking to do the same. Totalitarians enslave the people as tax mules or state dependents, by income taxes and printable paper money. Income tax changes are not politically feasible at this time. Printable paper money is vulnerable if the alternative real gold and silver money is freed from price manipulation. Real money use forces balance budgets and that is the route to stopping corrupting socialism and totalitarianism. I can end real money price manipulation and just need and am asking for a little help. Sincerely, Derrick Michael Reid BS JD Times up for snake and madusa,
can anyone indicate if JPM went long Ag?
yes or no? Ag did move up nicely today.

Spartacus Rexphilipat
Jun 29, 2013 - 4:42am

@ philipat

A foole & his money,

be soone at debate: which after with sorow, repents him to(o) late. Thomas Tusser (Five Hundreth Pointes of Good Husbandrie, 1573)
Spartacus Rex
Jun 29, 2013 - 4:34am

@ Tmos

Re: "You said "dealer asking prices on AGEs and ASEs". That is spot plus a premium." Alright Tmos. Follow my lead, and let's get you the hell out of "blue bayou", O.K.? First, YES you are CORRECT, in that "dealer asking price is spot plus a premium." Now, what part of the fact that the "premium" in that equation, did not change even one iota from Thursday to Friday? Yet the "Price" sure as hell did, didn't it? Next, Gold was getting Smashed again on Thursday, yet Silver was STICKING! There's your SIGN for Silver. They either Could Not, OR otherwise were no longer INTERESTED in trying to, Shake Out Physical Silver from the "weak hands", THAT = MASSIVE SIGNAL of High Probability of a Silver BOTTOM! Ergo, Pick Up the Phone and Order those Green Monsters PRONTO, because sure enough, those Green Monsters ROSE in "PRICE" by over 850FRNs in ONE F*ing DAY X How Many Green Monsters the Buyer can Chew Up. Furthermore, same applied in SPADES for Gold! Did you also miss these on "Greetings From Vacation"? :

For Those Who Cannot Connect The Dots...

Submitted by Spartacus Rex on June 27, 2013 - 10:39pm.

Back The Truck UP Like A Tonka Truck!

Submitted by Spartacus Rex on June 28, 2013 - 1:04am.

Now, Connecting The ELEPHANT Dots For The Intermediates...

Submitted by Spartacus Rex on June 28, 2013 - 3:54am. (And PAY ATTENTION to That Last Red Line in the Graph, It's Significance, & the MOPED Buying Opps ever since)

So Does The Elephant Sale in Gold Appear More Clearly?

Submitted by Spartacus Rex on June 28, 2013 - 3:55am. (OMG Hit the GAS & BUY!) Nevertheless Tmos, you're one of the Good Guys, so all the same Good Luck with that Day Late & FRNs Short "prediction time" Test/s. Cheers!
Spartacus Rex
Jun 29, 2013 - 3:17am
Excalibur
Jun 29, 2013 - 2:28am

Posted by Sheetrocker on

Posted by Sheetrocker on DOTS, but I wanted to post it here. It follows the theme of my morning posts; truth, lies, power, control. Seeing them for what they are brings freedom. With freedom and with courage, we can act. Like this woman. (Of course I am assuming she is genuine, what do you think?)

USAF Enviromental Specialist Kristen Meghan | Blows Whistle On Air Force | Chemtrail Chemicals
Dyna mo hum
Jun 29, 2013 - 2:22am

Coast to coast

Has an excellent guest on right now.

Pegasus
Jun 29, 2013 - 2:11am

Anything south of 50 Deg. N starts to get interesting

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK07 Serial Number: 87 Issue Time: 2013 Jun 29 0602 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 Threshold Reached: 2013 Jun 29 0559 UTC Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices. Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur. Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

No virus found in this message.
Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
Version: 2013.0.3345 / Virus Database: 3204/6448 - Release Date: 06/28/13

Excalibur
Jun 29, 2013 - 1:57am

More From Eric Blair

“So long as they (the Proles) continued to work and breed, their other activities were without importance. Left to themselves, like cattle turned loose upon the plains of Argentina, they had reverted to a style of life that appeared to be natural to them, a sort of ancestral pattern...Heavy physical work, the care of home and children, petty quarrels with neighbors, films, football, beer and above all, gambling filled up the horizon of their minds. To keep them in control was not difficult.”

“The Ministry of Peace concerns itself with war, the Ministry of Truth with lies, the Ministry of Love with torture and the Ministry of Plenty with starvation. These contradictions are not accidental , nor do they result from from ordinary hypocrisy: they are deliberate exercises in doublethink”

“In philosophy, or religion, or ethics, or politics, two and two might make five, but when one was designing a gun or an aeroplane they had to make four.”

“One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship.”
George Orwell, 1984

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