Time For A Break

613
Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 10:58am

You know how they say that dogs can sense an impending earthquake? Don't you kind of feel that way these days? I know I do.

First, it seems that everything is down. Stocks. Bonds. Commodities. Every currency. If there's a market for it, it's being sold. The only thing that is consistently rising this past week is The Pig. And once those dollars are bought, where are they going? Apparently nowhere. Very strange. Almost ominous.

Then you've got very knowledgeable folks like Bill Holter at MilesFranklin blaring the alarm with columns like this: https://blog.milesfranklin.com/the-great-unwind-has-finally-arrived and this: https://blog.milesfranklin.com/the-button-has-been-pushed-ready-or-not

We've got Santa, who is clearly very, very nervous. He's practically begging you to meet him somewhere for a discussion: https://www.jsmineset.com/2013/06/24/chicago-vancouver-and-scottsdale-qa-session-tickets-still-available/ And he keeps posting messages urging you to Get Out of The System (GOTS) as quickly as possible. Just yesterday, he linked two articles which you really do need to take some time to consider:

https://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-76-is-available-Alert-for-the-second-half-of-2013-Global-systemic-crisis-II-second-devastating-explosion-social_a14266.html &

https://www.valuewalk.com/2013/06/u-s-banks-crisis-plan-fed/

There are items such as this, which I found at ZeroHedge: https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/mid-year-digest/

And Chris Martenson, who I know to be a very wise and sober fellow, got into the act, too: https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/82210/everything-being-sold

So here we are. Look, I don't know if the financial world is ending this week or next or even this year, but I do know that the current system is unsustainable. To that end, your only financial protection is the physical possession of gold and silver. Not paper derivatives. Not ETFs. Not a basket of mining stocks. Physical metal, in your own two hands.

For those of you upset about the current, eight-month decline of fiat-conversion value, I'm sorry. If having gold and silver consistently move higher in terms of dollars would make you feel more comfortable, I regret that that hasn't happened for you. If you are sitting upon unrealized losses which makes you feel uncomfortable, I apologize and I wish I could make it different for you. But I can't.

However, you need to remember that we live in extraordinary times. Those spouting disinformation about the future price of gold are either hopelessly misinformed or deliberately trying to mislead you. The global forces at work behind the scenes have been in control and remain in control of the paper metal market. The past eight months have been a coordinated effort to crush price, thereby freeing physical for immediate delivery and allowing The Bullion Banks to cover paper short positions, transferring the future risk and liability to the Specs. This has now been accomplished and I firmly believe that we are very near a price bottom.

One day, very soon, paper price will reverse and head higher. Then, one day in the future, paper price will no longer exist as price resets multiples higher with the emergence of a new global financial paradigm. Please understand: THIS IS NOT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR "PROFIT". This is simply an opportunity to protect and defend all that you have accumulated to this point in your life.

To that end and to personally prepare, I'm going to be taking a few days off. Over the next two weeks, I'll still post from time to time but I'll also be sharing some "guest posts" from a handful of your favorite site regulars. Then, come next month, I plan to make a few changes to the way we do things around here. Nothing earth-shattering but necessary changes, nonetheless.

In the meantime, stay alert. Now is not the time to be complacent. Trust your instincts and use your brain. Double-check that you have acquired enough physical metal and consider buying even more. The End of The Great Keynesian is upon us. Please continue to prepare accordingly.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  613 Comments

SilverSurfers
Jun 26, 2013 - 3:29pm

Crowns

so, just got back from having the pearly cleaned, been 7 years, and discovered that I have no bullion, but 5 white crowns, so I guess that means Im

mad 5 hatter-capper yapper ... lol

meh, 1 hour in the chair, but no work, they aint broke.

MountainMan
Jun 26, 2013 - 3:33pm

May be time to shut the site down

Anyone remember this chart? We are headed to sub 1200.

MountainMan
Jun 26, 2013 - 3:33pm

May be time to shut the site down

Anyone remember this chart?

https://www.flickr.com/photos/67691333@N08/8666763422/

We are headed to sub 1200.

ancientmoney
Jun 26, 2013 - 3:40pm

Bond market rupture . . .

As we know, bond yields are rising, which means sellers must agree to take less and less to sell their holdings.

Since there is already very little yield on recently issued bonds, a small increase in market yields essentially wipes out almost all the value of existing bonds--and increasing inflation (real at 8-10%) makes those bonds even more $hitty to own.

And, the world is crammed full of them after a non-stop 40 year bull market in bonds.

I'm betting the first ones out of bonds and into phyzz PMs are the TBTF banks. They are half-way there already, having slipped their shorts into the hands of specs.

Bonds are still near their all-time highs, with nowhere to go but down. Silver is at 30% of its alltime highs, and adjusted for inflation, at about 10% of all-time highs.

I like silver a whole lot more than bonds right now--they are a veritable feast, if you understand what's going on, and buy the phyzz.


Jun 26, 2013 - 3:41pm

If you don't mind, allow me to field this one

CoachFX:

Respectfully - Would you mind explaining in simple terms your thoughts on why you should hold your PM for another decade or two?

My children, and their children ...

I am not an all eggs in one basket person, and owning physical metal is a very important diversification. In fact, because I am a lunatic, I believe it should be the cornerstone of any plan to hold wealth over generations.

Having lost money many ways, it must be said that when Google drove the stock price of a 'sure thing' to pennies, and then bought it, while doing no evil, we were left owning, well, nothing. The coins you pity me for owning are the things that allow me to sleep at night, that fit in the lining of clothing, that need not be taxed. When people talk of the paper price going to zero they are, it seems to me, re-phrasing the death of the fiat currency system we currently suffer under. How long its death-throes are is anyone's guess, and I am bad at timing investments.

But I know that a portion of my wealth is 'real'. So a decade or two isn't long in my books. I'm going centuries.

ag1969
Jun 26, 2013 - 3:43pm

For all of you that just can't stand.....

.....the present value of your real money when measured in fake money. I have decided to try to find a way to help you earn some ponzi coupons to supplement what you perceive you have lost. I am sorry that you believe nobody ever told you that the paper price of PM's might go down, even though many people here have been shouting from the rooftops that paper would go down hard before the reset. Anyway, rather than just picking on you, I have decided to give you 10 surefire ways to earn some of your losses back, and you get to get drunk in the process! So please don't ever say that ole ag1969 never did anything for you! Just pay extra attention to this video because if you struggle with the concept of holding real money instead of ponzi coupons, some of these could quite possibly be above your skill level:

10 new bets that you will always win (6)
elpicador
Jun 26, 2013 - 3:50pm

If...

silver and gold are not money and the threat to the current financial system;

why countries such as China, Russia and India buy by hundreds of tons per month?

why the price for both metals is manipulated down? Bankers could make as much money by manipulating it up.

Big Buffalo
Jun 26, 2013 - 3:53pm

$17

Noone mentioned that we may get a $17 handle. Some folks are going straight for $15 & $12. I just want it to level out for a month.

zman
Jun 26, 2013 - 3:57pm

@tmosley

".5% physical demand has a huge impact on the 99.5% paper market"

I don't know where you come up with your percentages, but physical can overtake paper, I am sure you can agree.

"get out" No I won't, just because I am trying to present a balanced approach to the PM market doesn't mean I shouldn't be heard, I showed that physical demand for silver is falling in India, I think people should know that fact.

"we won't follow you to troll you when the situation is reversed"

When or if the situation is reversed, there will be good reason, most likely a strong increase in physical demand, which will only confirm my original thesis.

You might not care about physical demand dictating price movements, but many do. Knowing that there is plenty of silver around is a reality, which puts the theory of complete manipulation out the window.

ag1969
Jun 26, 2013 - 4:01pm

Big Buff

If we get a 17 handle then we will be right back to where I started buying silver to begin with, and I have way more silver than the none I started with. Some people would say that I would have been better off waiting and I get that. But for me, I would not have saved all of the ponzi coupons that I have traded for silver over the years to make a big buy. As a matter of fact, I would have already wasted most of them as saving paper just never made any sense to me. The great thing about PM's is I never spend them, forced savings so to speak. So, again, for me, I am way better off than the last time we had a 17 handle.

Excalibur
Jun 26, 2013 - 4:02pm

Ambrose's view FWIW

Risk of 1937 relapse as Fed gives up fight against deflation

The US Federal Reserve has jumped the gun. It has mishandled its exit strategy from quantitative easing, triggering a global bond rout that it did not anticipate, and is struggling to control.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10144451/Risk-of-1937-relapse-as-Fed-gives-up-fight-against-deflation.html

tmosley
Jun 26, 2013 - 4:07pm

zman: You don't know the

zman:

You don't know the first thing about these markets if you think that physical demand is correlated with the paper price. Compare ASE purchases with the price and you will see what I am talking about.

You are "trying" to get people to sell their silver. For that, I would curse you, would that such things existed. Perhaps boils and cancers, or a blasting of fire, or that no man nor woman would call you friend, and that you would find no haven upon land or sea.

The fact that there is still some silver means there is no manipulation? Yep, you are a troll, and since I can't throw acid in your face over the internet, you are on ignore, with the rest of the scum.

alan2102 J Y
Jun 26, 2013 - 4:08pm

JY896

JY896: "I find the accusations 'you PM bulls have been WRONG, SO WRONG about all this!' and 'this is YOUR FAULT for suckering me into buying too much gold/silver' to be misguided and disingenuous"

Actually, us PM bulls have been right AND wrong. Right about the bull market from circa 2001, but wrong with the permabull stuff, "buy buy buy" no matter what, even when overbought signal signs are flashing in bright colors. It is great to be right about the fundamentals driving the bull market, but equally important to be smart about the whole thing -- like that guy Don Harrold that I mentioned up thread. Entry points are important. Dollar cost is important. It DOES matter what price you pay -- and not just because of the objective fact that lower price means more ounces for a given amount of money, but because of the subjective matter of how you feel about your investment -- which is a very important part of maintaining strong hands. It must be very tough indeed, psychologically (apart from financially), for people with a dca of $38 in silver.

Of course, I am talking about silver as an investment. But as insurance against the collapse of the dollar, or the collapse of civilization, that's a different matter. Everyone should have some (modest) insurance policy in hand, and for that, price is much less important, if not completely unimportant.

"PMs are INSURANCE. They are a HEDGE."

Yes, except when they are an investment -- which is much of the time for a lot of people.

"They are a doorstop, a paperweight, a pretty garland IN "NORMAL" TIMES of relative stability and rule of law. These are NOT NORMAL TIMES."

So it would seem. But so it ALWAYS seems to doomer/apocalypticists (including me, up until recent years). This has been going on for decades, all the way back. And saying that does not mean that we are not on the verge of total and complete collapse. It could happen this week! Just that... well, the problem becomes doom-fatigue, for those who've been in this game more than a short time. You can only stay on the edge of your seat for so long, before your ass gets awfully sore. How long have you been in it, JY? A year? Three years?

"PMs in hand are money NOW, [unlike vulnerable bank accounts, brokerage accounts, etc.]"

Yes, good points. That's why we should all hold SOME physical metal, continuously. The question is: how much? Everything is a crap shoot, everything is risky. You're taking a risk by not holding metal, but you're taking a risk by holding too much metal, also. You're paying big opportunity costs -- possibly huge opportunity costs. And possibly even more than opportunity costs.

"PMs in hand are money NOW, unlike the real estate which not only gets taxed under threat of confiscation ... Price stability? HAH!"

Well-selected non-urban real estate in lower-tax jurisdictions is reasonably stable and not onerous to hold; much more stable than PMs of late, one has to admit. It is an option worth considering. See Nadeem Walayat's writings on real estate on marketoracle.uk Walayat also writes about the inflation mega-trend powering equities higher for quite some time to come. He might be wrong, of course. But he might be right. He is not dumb.

Yes, "PMs in hand are money NOW". But your mantra-like repetition of that fact does not diminish the price that one pays for that quality of money-ness-in-hand-now. Yes, it is a great thing -- and it does not come free. Nothing does. So where does that leave us? Same place we always were: weighing risks and benefits, and trying to make the wisest choice.

Do you think that the global financial system is going to violently collapse over the next couple years? If so, then hang on to PMs, and only PMs (and other survival supplies) with all your might -- in fact, buy MORE PMs and survival gear -- and don't listen to a single dissenting word from anyone.

As for me, I think that the global financial system is not going to collapse, but that the PM bull will somehow pull itself together (yes, even now, though there might be another year or two of doldrums and tech repair) and we will march on to victory. I continue to think that PMs are a good investment -- though with the bold-face caveat that ENTRY PRICE IS IMPORTANT.

gold slut
Jun 26, 2013 - 4:13pm

What a happy day....

Well, I stacked another (cheap) yellow round lump today, (oh, that feels soooo good), and when I dragged my broken body in from work there was a cheque on the door mat from the evil tax man. I had caught them overtaxing me for two years (even after my employer informed them) and the refund has just arrived, Hurrah!!

This means that another yellow round lump will go on the pile in about a weeks time (oh, and the car will get serviced, needs to be done).

I have been paying into a private pension fund for about a quarter of a century now, and what with assorted Chancellors pinching it etc, it has grown at a snails pace, compared with what I have paid in.

If I had been buying Eu all that time, I would have been soooo much better off.

Well, now I will be.

I had an interesting chat when in the military (in my twenties) on a train with a lovely old jewish lady. She said that her father and grandfather had had a very good clothing firm in eastern Europe when she was a baby. They had always stored their money in gold, and in the late thirties had used that gold to allow them to escape to the UK. She made it clear that that is what her forefathers had done for centuries. As a young man I thought she was a kook. As an older man I understand what she was trying to tell me.

Bugzy
Jun 26, 2013 - 4:21pm

Silver and paper Silver

Seems to be a 23% premium currently at Scotia Macota. Not usually anything like this high.

They obviously do not want to sell physical Silver at the moment. I then get as to wondering why on earth would they not want me to buy it.

Salisbury House
Jun 26, 2013 - 4:27pm

Rambus

Rambus was the only one to get it right. He now says the bull is dead.

zman
Jun 26, 2013 - 4:29pm

@tmosley

"compare ASE sales with the price of silver" As you ready know, sales of ASE's make up a very small amount (less than 5%) of annual silver production, so a increase in ASE sales mean little at this point.

"you are trying to get people to sell their silver" I never said anything like that, and never would. In fact, silver at $18.50 offers more upside than downside in the next 12 months in my opinion.

"I would curse you" , "boils and cancers", "blasting of fire" , "I can't throw acid in your face over the internet", "scum"

Very nice, I guess the board had the pleasure of seeing your true character today, is this how you handle stuff in real life.

Really just calm down already, we have a slight disagreement about the silver market, big deal. If you don't want to share different opinions on the market, why are you here?

alan2102 ag1969
Jun 26, 2013 - 4:29pm

ag1969

"many people here have been shouting from the rooftops that paper would go down hard before the reset."

Yes. And shouting things from the rooftops does not make them true. That said, however, I for one will be DELIGHTED and DELIRIOUS WITH JOY if paper goes to zero while my physical goes to astronomical heights.

gw ancientmoney
Jun 26, 2013 - 4:41pm

ancientmoney

Over the last 3 years I converted around 25% of my cash savings into hard pm's (a rather large sum) as a hedge against potential rise in inflation however all those calls have been dead wrong. I am not a conspiracy theorist, nor a prepper but I unfortunately was lead to believe this was the proper way to hedge ones cash savings in the event of a devaluation of our currency. I no longer believe this to be the case as the powers that control these prices can outlast most of us here. There is no disconnect between paper and real price. Where is all the demand for silver at these bargain prices?

I would feel more comfortable converting back to fiat and leaving this country. That is the proper way to protest this corrupt system and government. I blame no one but my one naivete. I should have learned lesson in 2011 after the big smack down. This pattern will simply continue and when prices move up again, there will be an entire new heard of followers to be lead to the slaughter.

I am not one of the folks who went all in. I feel greatly for those folks. However, my point is this. Some of us don't have a lifetime to wait for this so-called GRAND reset we have been reading about for years. If pm's fiat price stays low and dollar survives, this is not a hedge against anything.

ag1969
Jun 26, 2013 - 4:46pm

alan

surely you understand that I was talking to all of the people today claiming they were not warned. You get that, right?

Astronomical heights in what? Dollars?

department of truth
Jun 26, 2013 - 4:48pm

Suppose it was just one more rigged market ploy?

Suppose . . . the current bond rout was orchestrated, the Fed worked with the big banks so they could short the sh*t out of everything, clean up . . . and then with the release of economic data that shows the "recovery" isn't quite as "fast" as they "thought" it was, there will be a "delay" in the "tapering" of QE. If so, then bond prices will recover, the market will bounce back and . . . precious metals will get the final massive naked shorts designed to set up a situation where JPM and friendz can back up ALL the trucks to the GLD , SLV, Comex, etc, and take possession at incredible prices.

just a thought

gw zman
Jun 26, 2013 - 4:55pm

zman

You should have been properly warned not to disagree with the likes of tmosley. He can spout some awful stuff just riddled with what seems pure hate.

ancientmoney gw
Jun 26, 2013 - 4:55pm

@gw re:PMs as a hedge . . .

that are now "dead wrong." That does not mean dead wrong forever.

Converting back to fiat and then leaving the country? Then what?

You don't have time to wait for the big reset, you say, so you will take the path of saying it won't happen? How will you have time to live with the results if/when it does happen?

You of all people, who didn't go all-in (only 25%) should be able to weather this storm. Unless you just haven't really thought it all through yet . . .

alan2102 ag1969
Jun 26, 2013 - 5:05pm

ag1969

"Astronomical heights in what? Dollars?"

Astronomical heights in purchasing power terms was of course the idea. Dollars, maybe, provided they are not at that same moment hyperinflating; as FOFOA suggests, astronomical heights in dollars but not hyperinflated dollars. You'd have to be a real fool to park your money for long periods in dollars as such, rather than just using them as a brief stop-over en route to something else. You might consider Swiss Francs, NZ dollars, Aussie dollars, or other currencies that have performed much better than dollars -- if you have a need to park for a time in currencies.

MetalPrices George Clooney
Jun 26, 2013 - 5:10pm

@ Xty

Thanks - I appreciate your insights and explaining your logic to me in simple terms. Just to clarify, I don't pity you or anyone for owning coins, I just feel that based off of what price action is showing, the value of those coins is going to go down further which must be heartbreaking for long term investors.

My own simple logic is that I want to trade PM prices in the direction they are headed. I make money while prices go down, and I make money while prices go up. I do not understand (yet) the theory behind "it all ending" and "paper being worthless". The info on this site is overwhelming but I'll get to grips with it. In the mean time...the charts will continue to show what they show.

TD
Jun 26, 2013 - 5:12pm

Lighten up folks!

Barrack Obama, Michelle Obama and Oprah Winfrey were flying on Obama's private plane. Obama looked at Oprah, chuckled and said, 'You know, I could throw a $1,000 bill out of the window right now and make somebody very happy .

Oprah shrugged her shoulders and replied, 'I could throw ten $100 bills out of the window and make ten people very happy.

Michelle added, That being the case, I could throw one hundred $10 bills out of the window and make a hundred people very happy.'

Hearing their exchange the pilot rolled his eyes and said to his co-pilot, Such big-shots back there. I could throw all of their asses out of the window and make 56 million people very happy.'

alan2102 TF
Jun 26, 2013 - 5:12pm

turd

"We are witnessing the death throes of the LBMA/Comex rehypothecated paper mechanism. It either dies here and physical reality sets in OR paper price rallies and rebounds sharply higher."

I love this. Truly. Either way, WE WIN -- my operating assumption. Except that I think sentiment has been damaged so badly now that doldrums could potentially be dragged out for a while.

Kcap
Jun 26, 2013 - 5:25pm

WOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Another day of awesome prices.

Thank you, thank you Dear Lord.

Kcap

ps. Humor....use it if you are miserable right now because this buying opportunity, although 110% manipulated, is a wonderful bargain for all those who will need it. Once its gone, its gone.


Jun 26, 2013 - 5:27pm

I had an uncle who gave me silver dollars on my birthday

How do you trade that? I know it sounds simplistic, but it is and that is why it is so trustable. I was born before Nixon took the US, and us by extension, off the gold standard. I have a vague memory of money having intrinsic value (and dinosaurs), and I know that all previous fiat currencies have failed. The future will be different from the past in ways we cannot imagine, but in some ways it is likely to be much like the past. So why wouldn't you keep some portion of your 'wealth' in a medium that has proved its worth over millennia and that cannot be created out of thin air?

ggnewmex
Jun 26, 2013 - 5:30pm

what about supply!!

I just cannot get off this point!! Miners are going to either go broke or stop producing, period.

Smart people are getting that!!

This take-down makes me think I am even more right than before!!. SURE I want the prices higher, but, it is better to have it , than not. Stocks went up today, basically because the economy stinks worse than thought. Therefore, QE infinity is back in play. THat should be good for PM's, but no!! First day notice is 2 days away, who doesn't think this a direct correlation!!

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