Calculator Joins The Fight

180
Fri, Jun 21, 2013 - 12:52pm

Ruler, Sharpie and Compass have a new ally in The Battle. Today, Calculator joins The Fight against The Forces of Darkness.

Never fear. MathMan is here.

Let's start with gold. Below is a chart to which you can refer if you'd like to check MathMan's math:

MathMan believes that this current "bull market" in gold began in January of 2001, with gold at $275/ounce. Using that as a basis, gold then rallied for over seven years, finally peaking at $1033 in March of 2008. That is a move of $758.

A Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of that move would have been:

$758 x .382 = $290

$1033 - $290 = $743

Thus, $743 was a likely target for the inevitable "correction". When it came during The Great Financial Crisis of 2008, it should not be surprising that price overshot just a bit. In those crazy days of fear and illiquidity, simple technical targets were easily overrun. It should be noted, though, that the final bottom was just a shade lower, at $683, in October of 2008. Then, in creating a bottom, price made a low of $700 in November 2008 and $742 in December of 2008 before resuming the bull market rally in January of 2009. Therefore, MathMan concludes that the 38.2% number is significant for measuring future corrections within the gold bull market.

Let's also look at the correction on absolute terms. Again, price peaked in March of 2008 at $1033 and then fell to $683 in October of 2008.

$1033 - $683 = $350

350 ÷ 1033 = 33.88%

OK, here comes the interesting part. Using the same math, gold began it's rally in January of 2001 at $275. It peaked in September of 2011 at $1920. That is a move of $1645.

$1645 x .382 = $628

$1920 - $628 = $1292

Thus, a reasonable target for this current correction is something similar to what took place in 2008. Though $1292 is a full 38.2% correction, could price overshoot again? Of course.

Let's also use the same absolute comparison to 2008. Again, back then, price fell 33.88% from its highs before reversing and resuming the bull market.

$1920 x .3388 = $651

$1920 - $651 = $1269

Ultimately, the questions you have to ask yourself are these:

  • Do you believe that the bull market for gold is still intact?
  • If so, under what conditions could this current correction be "worse" than that of 2008?
  • Does it even matter? (Not really. I just keep buying. They'll pry MathMan's gold from his cold, dead fingers.)

Now let's look at silver. Here's a chart for your reference:

In the immortal words of Mister Miyagi, "numbers different, but same".

The first thing we have to consider is that silver is likely tracing out a full, 100% retracement of the move that began in August of 2010. Back then, our infamous BoS (Buyer(s) of Size) appeared and silver rallied from $18 to $49 in just 8 months. Giving it all back would take us back to $18. As I mentioned in the podcast yesterday, this is the most likely scenario for a price bottom.

However, MathMan would like to take a stab at silver, too, just for fun.

The bull market in silver began with a low of $4.04 in November of 2001. It then rallied to a high $21.35 in March of 2008. That's $17.31. It then fell to a low of $8.80 in November of 2008. before bottoming and resuming the rally that ultimately took it to $49.75 in late April of 2011.

OK, from March 2008 to November of 2008, silver price fell from $21.35 to $8.80.

$21.35 - $8.80 = $12.55

12.55 ÷ 21.35 = 58.78%

Using an absolute 58.78% drop versus the high of $49.75 leads to this:

$49.75 x .5878 = $29.24

$49.75 - $29.24 = $20.51

Hmmm. MathMan thinks that's pretty interesting. Now let's go back to those Fibo levels again only let's use the entire bull market as our basis and see what we get.

$49.75 (4/11 high) - $4.04 (11/01 low) = $45.71

$45.71 x .618 = $28.25

$49.75 - $28.25 = $21.50

However, using this same fibo for the correction of 2008 yields this:

$17.31 x .618 (fibo level) = $10.70

$21.35 - $10.70 = $10.65

Obviously silver overshot by quite a bit back then and it will likely do the same here. By spiking down to $8.80, silver actually retraced 72.5% of the $17.31 move from 11/01 to 3/08. A similar 72.5% spike low retracement of the entire move of $45.71 is this:

45.71 x .725 = $33.14

$49.75 - $33.14 = $16.61 (yikes!)

Again, so what's the point? MathMan has no idea. He's banged out so many numbers now that he's feeling a bit punchy.

At the end of the day, it's all about how you answer these questions:

  1. Will the paper derivative method of pricing precious metal will continue?
  2. If it continues, is the precious metal bull market that began back in 2001 still intact?
  3. If not, which of the fundamental conditions that prompted the bull market have changed?
  4. If the fundamentals haven't changed, is this just a correction similar to 2008?

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  180 Comments

  Refresh
SilverSurfers
Jun 24, 2013 - 10:26am

Theory

Brainwave, Sorry.

E Sprott is a supply guy. Understands general supplies. Now let say that JPM decides to sales 1000 tones of gold, in less than a minute, of course. Sprott testifies that they could not have it, possession, as new gold. Naked shorts could be minor forwards as legit future sales. So, Sprott would also testify that JPM shorts must be naked in fact, not possession, not acquired such miner forwards.

Aspects 0 1 2 sent to Editor. Robert McEwen Contacted

Joan of Arc volunteered to spiritually support the cause.

Graphics backup Communications computer on line.

Brainwave, Gold and Silver are not only special, and not really commodities but monetary metals, deserving of special treatment, no naked shorting, but Au and Ag are also found in the constitution retaining them as money.

Judicial Resolution gives new meaning to "Beat the Cartel at their Own Game". :O

Newsflash!!! JOAN TUSH is joining the Turdville Army!!!!!!!

Joan Tush and Sweethearts...

Joan Jett - I Hate Myself For Loving You [ Original HQ ]
I love Rock n roll - Joan jett The Blackhearts

And the three faces of eye ...

Video unavailable
Twisted Sister - We're Not Gonna Take It (Official Video)
SilverSurfers
Jun 24, 2013 - 9:24am

Stratasphere

chill, the mortal is just selling his book. Making nice piles for easy government confiscations. Kinda like bugs missing it.

Stratajema
Jun 24, 2013 - 3:09am

When this guy speaks, then the opposite is expected

Egon von Greyerz warned King World News that “the world is now on the edge of total collapse.”

It is sad how all the jokers are called back to prognosticate about the immediate future when they have a history of being totally wrong.

Stratajema
Jun 24, 2013 - 3:05am

An analysis of pricing charts

An analysis of pricing charts in a massively manipulated PM market is worthless.

tyberious
Jun 24, 2013 - 12:41am

Sage Advice!

Egon von Greyerz

"if we move to the United States, just the hint of ending QE lead to massive stock and bond market falls worldwide. The bottom line is if the Fed stops printing the world financial system will collapse. I would also add that the average worker in the US, if you adjust properly for inflation, has had his/her weekly wage cut in half since 1973. That’s a staggering 50% loss of purchasing power over 4 decades. Also, the food stamp usage is up to 50 million, and real unemployment is at 23% in the US.”

"KWN readers around the world have to understand that as the price of gold eclipses its previous high and eventually moves above the $2,000 level, the volatility will only increase. Investors were shocked at the roughly $100 downdraft last Thursday, but as the gold price soars we will see trading days where gold moves hundreds of dollars a day, not just one hundred dollars.

Investors should simply buy physical gold, store it outside the banking system and not be frightened by the turbulence because the reality is the world is now on the edge of total collapse, and gold is one of the only financial instruments that will survive the coming financial disintegration.”

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/23_T...

tyberious
Jun 24, 2013 - 12:10am

Gold Trader: “Wall Street’s

Gold Trader: “Wall Street’s Gold Put Options Paid Off Handsomely Before The June Expiration.”

June 23, 2013 | By Tekoa Da Silva

Following continued selling pressure and another major downward thrust in the price of gold last week, recent interview guest Gary Savage, shared some powerful commentary in a note to subscribers over the weekend.

Speaking on Thursday’s smash of the gold price, Gary noted that;

“About a month ago I vaguely remember something coming across my email…about a huge position in June GDX & GLD put options. Now I see why gold was held below $1400, and what was driving the completely irrational $75 drop in the pre-market Thursday morning. Wall Street was making sure their put options paid off handsomely before the June [21st] expiration.

(click to enlarge)

In my opinion the precious metals sector was originally manipulated to move physical metal from west to east. However, Wall Street saw an opportunity to capitalize on that original manipulation and make some fast money over the last several months by exacerbating the short side manipulation.

The question now is will the manipulation continue indefinitely? And I think the answer is no. For the simple reason that at some point the upside potential becomes enormous and Wall Street will make a lot more money by letting the secular trend resume, [rather] than…trying to force the market [down further].

I think Wall Street has generated about as much profit as they are going to get on the short side, and are…ready to flip to the long side. Once we get the manipulators off our back and Wall Street in our corner, I expect we will see 100% or [larger] gains out of the miners and silver in the first three or four months.”

——
Special thanks to Gary Savage for his comments here. To learn more about Gary’s daily gold commentary visit: SmartMoneyTracker.

Enjoy the article? Please support the site by sharing this URL page link with friends, family, and your favorite chat forum.

Thanks,
Tekoa Da Silva
Bull Market Thinking

SilverSurfers
Jun 23, 2013 - 10:48pm

Nope

Did we get a weekend COT report? Does Bank Participation and COT indicate that JPM is either long or short silver? anyone? Lou, may get it, doubt it.

LouieSilverSurfers
Jun 23, 2013 - 2:47pm

@ Mad5Hatter

Passing instructions to Snowden, or are you double hitting the hash pipe before you pass it?

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

Mr. Fixdnlward
Jun 23, 2013 - 2:13pm
SilverSurfers
Jun 23, 2013 - 1:03pm

Spell Checking

that 142 page single line space monster attack plan. Oh well, get to listen to tunes while it goes down. Took wife and 8 10 28 boys and gal to Mideval Times, Buena Park, last night, 28yo took for a ride the young boys, one up and one down, road in the 28yo very high performance red vet, that 150mph cruiser, he got stopped on way back, no ticket. License plate reads "MERG ME", figure that one out. I like to raw raw, at the times with the young boys, to see if I can get the small boys in play, and when they raise both arms up, you know you scored a TD. LOL

Table of Aspects

Aspect 0.0 Prolog, Parties Weaknesses and Strengths
Aspect 0.1 REID is an Expert in Five Fields
Aspect 0.2 REID has Neural Net and Computing Power
Aspect 0.3 REID as Commanding General
Aspect 0.4 REID is a Grandiose Alpha Werewolf
Aspect 0.5 REID is Ready for the Case.
Aspect 0.6 REID has a Robust Resume
Aspect 0.7 REID is Retired with Legal Bar Dismissal
Aspect 0.8 REID Wears Five Cross Dimensional Hats
Aspect 0.9 REID has Disdain for the Legal Profession
Aspect 0.10 REID has a Spiritual Psychology
Aspect 0.11 REID has made a Call to Arms

Aspect 1.0 The Plaintiff Team
Aspect 1.1 Cast of Characters
Aspect 1.2 The Plaintiff
Aspect 1.3 Plaintiff Experts
Aspect 1.4 Plaintiff Attorneys
Aspect 1.5 Plaintiff Core Team
Aspect 1.6 Local Counsel
Aspect 1.7 The Chicago Law Firm
Aspect 1.8 Secondary and Tertiary Plaintiff Experts
Aspect 1.9 Auxiliary Experts at TFMR and LMPC
Aspect 1.10 Demand Letters to Defendants
Aspect 1.11 Defendants Attorney Generally
Aspect 1.12 HQ Advanced Preparations upon Funding

Aspect 2.0 Scope of Complaint Causes of Actions
Aspect 2.1 Prayer for Injunctive Relief and Motion Hearing
Aspect 2.2 Defendants Manipulations Since 2009
Aspect 2.3 Defendants Anticipatory Smashed in Usual Course
Aspect 2.4 Fungible Combined In House and Client Money
Aspect 2.5 Treasonous Sells and China Accumulations
Aspect 2.6 Plaintiff General Proof and Motion Showing
Aspect 2.7 Pending Motion Discovery and Motion Showing
Aspect 2.8 Plaintiff Rigging Hypothesis and Discovery
Aspect 2.9 Plaintiff Front Running Hypothesis
Aspect 2.10 Plaintiff Business Hypothesis Market Action
Aspect 2.11 Graphics Expert Proof and Motion Showing
Aspect 2.12 Plaintiff Expert Proof and Motion Showing
Aspect 2.13 Judicial Notice of Indisputable Facts
Aspect 2.14 Injunction Naked Short Sales Prohibitions
Aspect 2.15 No Sherman Act or Position Limits Claim
Aspect 2.16 Military Scrimmaging of Defendants
Aspect 2.17 List and Acronyms used in Files Papers
Aspect 2.18 FED US Defendant Criminal Conspiracy
Aspect 2.19 FED US Defendant Motion Strategy
Aspect 2.20 Equitable Relief Proof and Motion Showing
Aspect 2.21 Hear Say Evidence Generally Admitted
Aspect 2.22 Defendant Dominant Positions Assures Manipulation.
Aspect 2.23 Gold Cartel Racketeering the Bullion Space

Aspect 3.0 Financing and Budget of 6m$ for one year
Aspect 3.1 Practical Business Operations
Aspect 3.2 Financier to Must Fund Case in Advance
Aspect 3.3 Compliant filing and Injunction Hearing
Aspect 3.4 Attorneys and Experts Skin in the Game
Aspect 3.5 Attorney Attire Court Dress Code
Aspect 3.6 California Disbursement Discovery Attorney
Aspect 3.7 Marketing of Plan and Acquiring Funding
Aspect 3.8 Problems Raising Venture Capital
Aspect 3.9 KISS Marketing at Totalitarian Democracy
Aspect 3.10 Lecture Available to Group of Funders
Aspect 3.11 Mechanics of Initial Funding
Aspect 3.12 Plaintiff Inherent Advantages
Aspect 3.13 Movie Producers as the FINANCIER
Aspect 3.14 Sharing of Settlement

Aspect 4.0 Preparation before Filing Complaint
Aspect 4.1 Simple Proof and Showing and Graphics
Aspect 4.2 Filing and Injunction Moving Papers
Aspect 4.3 Cut and Paste Attorney Efficiencies
Aspect 4.4 Budget for One Year of Litigation
Aspect 4.5 Attorneys Bullion Understandings
Aspect 4.6 FIFOs, Pools, Walls, Staggering and Thresholds
Aspect 4.7 Broadcasting Exclusivity Licensing
Aspect 4.8 Invitees and Others Invited to the Rallies
Aspect 4.9 MOPE the Supporters Providing Nation Campaign
Aspect 4.10 Misdirections, Surprises and Confusion
Aspect 4.11 Headquarters Command Facilities
Aspect 4.12 Preliminary Funding Solicitations
Aspect 4.13 MOPE Fight Song, Hats and Campaign Flag
Aspect 4.14 Bias of a US District Judge
Aspect 4.15 Attorney and Expert Assignments
Aspect 4.16 Discovery Initiated upon Complaint Filing
Aspect 4.17 Secrecy Before Filing the Complaint
Aspect 4.18 Permits and Advertising of MOPE Rallies
Aspect 4.19 Pod Casts for National MOPE Rallies

Aspect 5.0 Burden of Proof at Injunction Hearing
Aspect 5.1 Presentation at the Injunction Hearing
Aspect 5.2 Defendants Nefarious Conduct
Aspect 5.3 Defendants Injunction Prohibitions
Aspect 5.4 China Drift Enabling Treasonous Bullion Sells
Aspect 5.5 Experts Generally Do Not Cross Dimension
Aspect 5.6 Price Rigs and Front Runs, Shorts Buys and Drift Sells
Aspect 5.7 Defendants Turn Coats Traitors Testimony
Aspect 5.8 Inference and Direct Expert Testimony
Aspect 5.9 Defendant Hiding Manipulation in the Market

Aspect 6.0 Sustaining Preliminary Injunction Relief
Aspect 6.1 Misdirecting the Enemy and Total Confusion
Aspect 6.2 Preliminary Injunction Shall Have No Wiggle Room

Aspect 7.0 Discovery Before Trial and Trial
Aspect 7.1 Plaintiff Communications Hubs
Aspect 7.2 US Justice Counsel Will Be Court Amici

Aspect 8.0 Time Segment Litigation Stages
Aspect 8.1 General Time Table of Case Prosecution
Aspect 8.2 Schedule of Settlement Percentage Share

Aspect 9.0 General Conclusion and Summary
Aspect 9.1 Offers to Settle and Misdirections
Aspect 9.2 Moral Releases and Justice Jail Time
Aspect 9.3 Agreement Signature Page

Aspect 10.0 Appendix of Personal Posts (Attached)

The dream team:

Title Page

A Proposal to Terminate Bullion Manipulation


Turd Ferguson Bill Haynes Thor Gjerdrum
Plaintiff Plaintiff Plaintiff
Rfmetalsreport.com CMI Gold & Silver AMark

William Murphy Brian Crumbaker James Hausman
Plaintiff Plaintiff Plaintiff
lemetropolecafre.com GoldLine Gold Center

Derrick Michael Reid Attorney Attorney
Of Counsel Proximal Counsel Distal Counsel
totalcontrol.com Not Selected Preferably Selected

Primary Counsel Secondary Counsel Tertiary Counsel
Chicago Law Firm Chicago Law Firm Chicago Law Firm
Not Selected Not Selected Not Selected

Andrew McGuire William Kaye PINING
Coghan Capital Pacific Group TF Metals Report
Primary Expert Primary Expert Primary Expert

Sandeep Jaitly Ben Davies Rocket Richard
Bullion Basis Hindsight Capital LeMetropoleCafe
Secondary Expert Secondary Expert Secondary Expert

William Grant James Rickards Eric Sprott
Things that go Hmm Tagent Capital Sprott Assets
Tertiary Expert Tertiary Expert Tertiary Expert


versus

J P Morgan Chase Inc.
Jamie Diamond
Blythe Masters
Defendants

Anchorman i'm kind of a big deal

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
4/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/2

3/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
3/4 8:15 ET ADP employment
3/4 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
3/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
3/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Recent Comments

by SteveW, 1 hour 12 min ago
by Blackwatersailor, 1 hour 35 min ago
by robobrewer, 1 hour 39 min ago
by robobrewer, 1 hour 45 min ago
by robobrewer, May 24, 2020 - 11:35pm