Tapering Turds

Thu, Jun 6, 2013 - 4:31pm

Maybe "Hampton Pearson at The Labor Department" will shoot me down and make me look foolish (again) but all signs point to a weak NFP tomorrow.

I just thought I would post this before heading out. There continues to be all this market talk about "Fed tapering". We've covered this fallacy ad nauseam so there's no need to do it again, especially when The Pig is telling you all you need to know.

First, here's a daily chart of the POSX. If The Bernank was really going to constrict the future supply of dollars by tapering QE, the POSX should be rallying simply because nearly every other fiat currency is being rapidly devalued. Ahem...note the action in the POSX since The Bernank spoke to Congress two weeks ago.

But though today's drop was staggering, it doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. Note that on these two longer-term charts, the key level to watch is 80. Admittedly, an horrific NFP tomorrow and we might be there by Monday. But, for now, today was just noise. One bright spot: It doesn't look like we'll be seeing a return to 88 anytime soon.

And why does this matter?

Again, it's all about the flow of funds. A weak Pig will help to drive the entire "commodity" sector higher. (https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4733/ebb-and-flow-funds) Soon, a fire will be re-lit under the metals and the historically large Spec short position will be forced to cover. A falling dollar along with the attendant higher commodity prices will only exacerbate the pain for the shorts.

So, hang in there. Regardless of whether old Hampton breathlessly exclaims "UP 88,000" or "UP 288,000" tomorrow morning, QE∞ is going to continue unabated. No amount of SPIN or Fed Goon posturing is going to change that. This fact WILL, eventually, be realized by the paper metals markets. It's simply a matter WHEN.

More in the morning.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jun 8, 2013 - 7:25am

Good Morning

oops . wrong thread.

Jun 7, 2013 - 8:19pm

reefman: People don't want to


People don't want to hear about how comfortable it is on the Titanic when they already have their seats in the lifeboats, even if they are relatively crowded (analogous to having paid more fiat for their PMs than the current numbers on the screen).

Those who do not have the strength of will to persevere are not worthy to join the next generation of oligarchs, the vast majority of which will arrive there due to their silver investments.

Jun 7, 2013 - 1:40pm

Who said the Hydra would take it lying down?

Interesting discussion of how TPTB will not let go of their hold on the price of gold and silver trade and let them trade freely https://www.professorfekete.com/articles%5CAEFWhoSaidDragon.pdf

Jun 7, 2013 - 12:35pm
Jun 7, 2013 - 11:39am


one for his pals.

Yes ~ I've Seen All Good People: Your Move (1971)

Freakin A, the russkayas such saw a cougar, aka, montain lion, all 220 pounds, in the back yard, freakin big time YIKES!!!! And the black crows, right out of the birds, are massed for the hunt, as well.

swallow chickies flying out, first time, in the annual predatory feast, brings them all out, this time of year, for little chickie snacks, kind of like turtles eggs on the beach, the hatchlings scampering for the ocean. Im rooting for the babes in the woods, with lions and tigers and bears, oh my!!!

Somewhere Over The Rainbow - Judy Garland 1939
Jun 7, 2013 - 10:59am


Not so fast.... This one's for you

Styx- The grand illusion + lyrics
Jun 7, 2013 - 10:57am

Reefman & others

I don't know about it being a problem...to each his own.

While the defense or hope that PM's are always bullish might seem to permeate on here strongly (Ok...it does by some or many) it can easily be overlooked also and not become an irritant to you.

I read your posts and found nothing offensive or bearish in a personal way that I thought smacked at me or anyone but that's my personal view. Others might see it as bashing...I don't know.

Look...facts are facts whether they suck or seem to reflect people's emotional and financial attachment to mining shares they still hold. I get that point, it's been very difficult to watch what's happened. I've been there, trust me, when the May massacre of 2011 happened and I stayed in one weekend too long against my better judgment and almost pulled the sell trigger....but didn't.

It behooves everyone (if they want to) to consider the opposite viewpoints of some because you know what? Some of those folks were spot on whether it feels good to admit or even to want to see or read.

Live, experience and learn. It might be sacrilege to some....but it's ok to buy puts against miners or whatever even if you think long term the bullish trend will continue.

I'd like to see everyone keep an open mind to some degree and even if you can't stand the message maybe consider some of them and then decide if it's not for you instead of slamming the messengers....some of whom have been right.

Long term... I'm bullish and I'm hoping like heck to be positioned for when this market downturns and then scoop some mining shares up when they are lower. If your a long term holder of shares then buckle up and try not to worry about the uneasy feeling in this short term cycle. Trust me, I know it's painful and unpleasant and it cost me a good penny 2 years ago. This period is the opposite of fun and exuberance and doesn't feel good at all.

However...no one likes a "I told you so" type of thing no matter what side of the bullish/bear fence you sit. Were all in it together in some respects and some of these seemingly bearish folks are friggin' smart about this stuff and see things differently from both sides.

Respect it or bash it...the choice is yours but live and learn from it even if it's painful to grudgingly consider.

I have and it's not always fun but it seems smart to do or you'll stay myopic. Stackers need not worry

Jun 7, 2013 - 10:55am

Ugh!....Last post syndrome

Never fails.....new thread

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

Jun 7, 2013 - 10:54am


got that right pat rant, rasputin is an old KGB hack, dreaming of the glory days, and only the people keep him in check, some what. A true NKVD penal battalion guard die hard, and now hes got a toy boat on the lose.

Yeap, them Russkies got no problem with toy boat toy boat toy boat toy boat ...

Jun 7, 2013 - 10:52am

@Dr. J

You wrote:

Fascinating indeed that Greenspan and Rubin are both mentioned. Perhaps the dregs of this evil potion are getting stirred up to the surface. I hope that means it is nearly over and something new, something better some kind of system that is able to re-earn our trust will be emerging soon.

Yes and the sky will be filled with sunshine, lollipops and rainbows...

Sunshine, Lollipops and Rainbows- Lesley Gore- Lyrics

I wouldn't hold my breath though!

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