Tapering Turds

160
Thu, Jun 6, 2013 - 4:31pm

Maybe "Hampton Pearson at The Labor Department" will shoot me down and make me look foolish (again) but all signs point to a weak NFP tomorrow.

I just thought I would post this before heading out. There continues to be all this market talk about "Fed tapering". We've covered this fallacy ad nauseam so there's no need to do it again, especially when The Pig is telling you all you need to know.

First, here's a daily chart of the POSX. If The Bernank was really going to constrict the future supply of dollars by tapering QE, the POSX should be rallying simply because nearly every other fiat currency is being rapidly devalued. Ahem...note the action in the POSX since The Bernank spoke to Congress two weeks ago.

But though today's drop was staggering, it doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. Note that on these two longer-term charts, the key level to watch is 80. Admittedly, an horrific NFP tomorrow and we might be there by Monday. But, for now, today was just noise. One bright spot: It doesn't look like we'll be seeing a return to 88 anytime soon.

And why does this matter?

Again, it's all about the flow of funds. A weak Pig will help to drive the entire "commodity" sector higher. (https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4733/ebb-and-flow-funds) Soon, a fire will be re-lit under the metals and the historically large Spec short position will be forced to cover. A falling dollar along with the attendant higher commodity prices will only exacerbate the pain for the shorts.

So, hang in there. Regardless of whether old Hampton breathlessly exclaims "UP 88,000" or "UP 288,000" tomorrow morning, QE∞ is going to continue unabated. No amount of SPIN or Fed Goon posturing is going to change that. This fact WILL, eventually, be realized by the paper metals markets. It's simply a matter WHEN.

More in the morning.

TF

About the Author

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  160 Comments

agrock
Jun 6, 2013 - 4:33pm

first

first

OC15
Jun 6, 2013 - 4:35pm

Thurd!

Yes!

Swineflogger
Jun 6, 2013 - 4:36pm

OMG! Turd!

I mean third!!!

Rat Puke! Fifth

proformatrillionaire
Jun 6, 2013 - 4:36pm

missed it...

by that much,

Agent 86

SE
Jun 6, 2013 - 4:36pm

Fourth!

Fourth! Damn, sixth!

Croaker
Jun 6, 2013 - 4:37pm

Top 5...ok Top 7

Sweet! Still Sweet.

Daedalus Mugged
Jun 6, 2013 - 4:40pm

Tapering

I am amazed at how much weight people give to a decrease in the rate of growth of the money supply. Tapering is printing less than $85B a month, but still printing massive dollar distorting and destroying sums.

Cry Me A River
Jun 6, 2013 - 4:43pm

Now That We Know Eric Holder Won't Step Down...

That Rumor That Holder Was Running As Vice Mayor Of New York Is Probably False And These Won't Be Needed:

May 30, 2013 Will Anthony Weiner Be New York’s Next Mayor? Posted by John Cassidy https://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2013/05/the-weiner-surge-can-he-keep-it-up.html Rep. Anthony Weiner on Photo Scandal Rep. Weiner Admits Tweeting Lewd Photo Barely a week after he officially entered the Democratic primary for the mayoralty of New York City, Anthony Weiner has reason to be cheerful. On Tuesday, a Marist College poll showed the recovering sex-tweeter running second to Christine Quinn, the City Council Speaker. And the media is suddenly taking Weiner seriously. Politico’s Maggie Haberman, after spending some time with the former congressman on the stump, reports that he “bears an uncanny resemblance to the pugnacious, hard-charging Anthony Weiner of old.” According to the headline on his post, Salon’s political editor Blake Zeff believes that “Anthony Weiner can actually win the NYC mayor race.” Now, getting nineteen per cent of the potential vote three months before the primary election, scheduled for September 10th, is hardly cause for booking a victory celebration. But for Weiner it represents an encouraging start. As Zeff and others have pointed out, he entered the race with a number of advantages, including name recognition, money—more than five million dollars left over from previous campaigns—a divided opposition, and an affinity with the base of the Democratic Party. The big unknown was the crotch-shot factor. Would New Yorkers be willing to overlook his scandalous fall from Congress? According to the Marist poll, at least, the answer is yes. Fifty-nine per cent of registered Democrats said he deserved another chance, and fifty-three per cent of all registered voters said the same thing.
bunnytoujours
Jun 6, 2013 - 4:45pm

first couldnt resist

first couldnt resist ok not

zman
Jun 6, 2013 - 4:50pm

Something tells me the jobs

Something tells me the jobs report will be "acceptable" to the markets, and the PM's will get a good old fashioned smack down.

We know the numbers are bunk, so why should it surprise us when the numbers won't reflect the real economy?

These are their economic statistics, these are their markets, they are buying time as always, nuff said.

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