Not So Happy Tuesday

171
Tue, Jun 4, 2013 - 1:57pm

Lots going on today and I'm off to a late start so let's dive right in.

First, let's talk about the price action today. After the surprising rally yesterday, I asked you to watch the Asia and London trade for clues to the Comex action today. What did we see? After a flat Asian session, the London Monkeys did their usual thing from about 2:00 am EDT on. The London Monkeys have now acted on 14 of the past 17 days. Check this chart from Ranting Andy:

The result was a giveback of more than half of yesterday's gains.

Why did we see this? Hard to say for sure but, with volume light ahead of the BLSBS later this week, I suspect that a lot of this was some Bullion Bank selling that was aimed at lessening some longs ahead of the CoT survey. No doubt the action since last Tuesday is a continuation of the trend of last week's report. Therefore, the banks tried today to lighten a few of the longs they had built up over the course of the week. This also serves the dual purpose of defending the 20-day MA and restoring some confidence to some of the shaky spec shorts. At any rate...we're down a modest $13 as I type. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Speaking of the CoT, there has been some excellent analysis written in the past few days so I thought I would highlight some here. Again, the positioning of the Commericals vs The Specs has gotten so extreme that it has reached historic levels. Ultimately, how you interpret this depends upon just whom you think is really in charge. Is it The Specs or do The Cartel Banks lead The Specs by the nose into whichever position they would like? Let's start with longtime CoT-watcher Gene Arensberg: https://www.gotgoldreport.com/2013/05/gold-and-silver-disaggregated-cot-report-dcot-for-may-31.html

Next, read this link over at KWN: https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/4_This_Amazing_Chart_Shows_Gold_Set_For_Massive_$1,000_Spike.html. While we might disagree that this chart alone shows that "gold is set for a massive $1000 spike", the interview is helpful and in contains this excellent chart. (Click on it to enlarge.)

Reading that article inspired the Turdite "WildStyleChef" to create the chart below. This shows graphically how Commercial positioning is inversely correlated to price. (Again, click to enlarge.)

OK, moving on. I found this to be interesting. Recall that when the Dutch bullion bank, ABN AMRO, announced their plan to settle in cash a few months back, many of us called it a default. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4667/gold-delivery-or-default This article published Friday follows along with that theme. I don't know anything about the author but that's OK. He probably doesn't know anything about me, either. https://www.jcaschipper.nl/2013/05/nationalized-abn-amro-offers-fools-gold/

Still lots of talk out there about Fed QE "tapering". Again, I think is all silly and it may be a non-topic as soon as Friday at 8:31 am. Regardless, as mentioned last week, even if The Bernank was to announce some type of "taper", it would likely come from the $40B/month MBS-purchase side of the QE∞ equation. The Fed could still monetize $45B/month in treasuries directly while cutting the Primary Dealer kickback life support handout welfare bullshit MBS purchases to $20B/month. This would still be $65B/month in QE and silence all the hawks. Not saying that it will happen, just saying that even if it did, it's no big deal! $65B/month is still nearly $800B/year in fresh greenback, created from whole cloth for the purpose of sustaining The Great Ponzi. Read more at ZH: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-04/chart-day-feds-taper-perspective And here's how it looks graphically:

Finally, I don't know if you've noticed but lately there sure have been a lot of big mines that have been taken off-line.

So, now, what to make of all this? Well, if you believe that everything is hunky-dory and that there are no supply issues in gold, then this is no big deal. After all, even though The Grasberg mine is the largest in the world, it still only produces about 30 metric tonnes per year or a little over 1% of all global mine production.

If, on the other hand, you think that the Bullion Banks are living hand-to-mouth and frantically trying to keep their Fractional Reserve Bullion Banking system alive, then it is a big deal. A very big deal.

That's a lot of gold...a lot of currently anticipated and expected supply that isn't coming. How much of this production was already sold forward into the market? And if it was already sold forward, what happens when it fails to materialize on schedule? Hmmmm. Could that lead to those contracts being covered? Could it lead to some new long purchasing as a hedge against supply delays, not only from the suppliers but from the end-users, as well? And with the current CoT structure in gold being akin to an overgrown and dried out California ravine just waiting for a spark...

Let's just leave it there for today. I hope that the rest of your Tuesday goes well and I look forward to seeing what tomorrow brings. Again, if I'm right about the cause of today's drop being Cartel CoT-positioning, then we should see a bit of a bounceback on the Globex and overnight.

TF

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  171 Comments

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Karankawa
Jun 5, 2013 - 2:12am

Japan having a tough go.

Is the pump not big enough to overcome the ever increasing leaks?

https://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^N225+Interactive#symbol=^n225;range=1d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Personally, I think Japan has served their purpose for the NWO, they haven't reproduced per social propaganda, and the country is being taken down.

Wonder who is next?

silverwood
Jun 5, 2013 - 2:09am

David McAlvany on BNN

Not sure if this has been posted but it is a good listen

https://watch.bnn.ca/#clip940224

Spartacus Rex
Jun 5, 2013 - 1:50am

Epic Quote

"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title."

- Anonymous

Boswell
Jun 5, 2013 - 1:46am

Watching England...

This has worked for me before, watching something else. I'm not at a Windows machine right now to test it on the Rothschilds video...

https://expat-shield.en.softonic.com/

Expat Shield is a simple VPN software which allows you to access UK TV websites such as BBC iPlayer and ITV when outside of the UK.

It kind of takes over your browser with an ad frame, but is easy to turn on/off by clicking an icon.

The Watchman
Jun 5, 2013 - 1:22am
boomer sooner
Jun 5, 2013 - 1:19am

Israel knows how to devalue, and rather quickly

In 1985, coins in denominations of 1, 5 and 10 agorot, ½ and 1 new shekel were introduced.[6] In 1990, 5 new shkalim coins were introduced,[7] followed by 10 new shkalim in 1995.[8] Production of 1 agora pieces ceased in 1990 too, and they were removed from circulation on April 1, 1991.[citation needed] A 2 new shkalim coin was introduced on December 9, 2007.[9] The 5 agorot coin, last minted in 2006, was removed from circulation on January 1, 2008.[10]

In April 2011, it was reported that new coins would be minted that would use less metal and thus lower costs. Counterfeiting would also be harder.[11] The Bank of Israel is considering dropping the word "new" on the planned coins series. If approved, this would be the first replacement of all coins since the introduction of the new shekel coins in September 1985.[12]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_new_shekel same link, just click 'coins'

boomer sooner
Jun 5, 2013 - 1:06am

Dollar going by way of Shekel

Our church decided to take on reading the Bible in a short period. There is a program 'Read the Bible in 90 days', which we are in week 2. Todays reading for me was Leviticus 'actually listening while driving between service calls'. This particular book talks about the costs of sinning and one measurement was shekels.

Being curious about how much 20 shekels of gold is equal to in oz (~7), I did a wiki and came up with the amount of 11 grams or 180 grains per shekel.

Digging further I happened upon Israeli money 'Shekel' and how it changed in valuation in 1986. Old shekel/new shekel 1000/1. Maybe the new 'golden' hundred is for a reason. Lol.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_new_shekel

Israeli new shekel

שקל חדש (Hebrew)

شيقل جديد (Arabic)

1 shekel coin

ISO 4217 code ILS

Central bank Bank of Israel

Website bankisrael.gov.il

User(s) Israel

Palestinian territories[1]

Inflation 2.6% (2010 est.) 3.3% (2009 est.)

Source The World Factbook, 2007

Subunit

1/100 agora

Symbol ₪

Plural shkalim

agora agorot

Coins 10 agorot, ½, 1, 2, 5, 10 new shkalim

Banknotes 20, 50, 100, 200 new shkalim

The Israeli new shekel (Hebrew: שֶׁקֶל חָדָשׁ Shekel H̱adash) (sign: ₪; acronym: ש״ח and in English NIS; code: ILS) (pl. shkalim – שקלים; Arabic: شيكل جديد‎ or شيقل جديد šēqel ǧadīd) is the currency of the State of Israel. The shekel consists of 100 agorot (אגורות) (sing. agora, אגורה). Denominations made in this currency are marked with the shekel sign, ₪. The Israeli new shekel has been in use since 1 January 1986 when it replaced the Old Israeli shekel that was in usage between 24 February 1980 and 31 December 1985, at a ratio of 1000:1. The spelling on coins and banknotes is new sheqel, pl. new sheqalim.

Occasnltrvlr
Jun 4, 2013 - 11:55pm

If It...

...walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck...it's got 20,000 tonnes. Putin is not just defying, but reviling the old-world PTB. He's said repeatedly he was going to do it (and you're [i.e., DPH] covering it).

SRS covers energy; Putin apparently reads his posts.

(BTW, very clever reference to JFK - JW does strike me as, perhaps, a tad gullible, shall we say? To be fair, he said that came from a typically-credible source, but not that he necessarily believes it.)

¤
Jun 4, 2013 - 11:38pm

Over 20K &10K tonnes?

It sounds like a totally unprovable dartboard speculation yet the JA goes with it. Projected in the ground reserves is another thing altogether but even that is MOPEful speculation by any country.

No one knows except those in the know at the highest level....unless JFK let one slip and sent message by carrier pigeon from some remote island.

Some of the online speculation is surreal at times. Hey, you never know though...the JackAss might be right. Time will tell the real tale or whose been spinning them.

DayStar
Jun 4, 2013 - 11:16pm

Harvey's Up!

Eric Sprott: the flows out of the SPDR Gold Trust may have been generated by the bullion banks to take advantage of an arbitrage opportunity in the physical market. This arbitrage opportunity occurred because of the intense demand for gold stemming from Asia and the inability of traditional suppliers to provide this gold (hence the large Shanghai premium). We believe that this activity further supports our hypothesis that there is a lack of availability of physical gold and an obvious dislocation between the physical and paper gold markets. To us, this is clearly a bullish signal for gold. • Matt Taibbi: In 1991, the CFTC started issuing commodities speculation exemption letters, so those exempted could speculate on commodities. Pretty soon, every major bank in the U.S. was given an exemption. Commodities speculation has exploded since the exemption letters were issued. For example, in 2003, there was only $29 billion in speculative activity in the commodities markets. By 2007-2008, there was over $300 billion in commodities speculation. • Harvey: Chinese appetite for gold continues. Just look at the month of March which saw a net inflow of 114 tonnes of gold. At this rate, China will import in excess of 1,000 tonnes of gold this year. With India also bringing in 1000 tonnes of gold we have almost 100% of annual production going to these two nations. • Dave From Denver: Comex is hypothecating its gold; at least that's what the new web site disclaimer implies.

The Harvey Retort!

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/599176#comment-599176

DayStar

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