Not So Happy Tuesday

171
Tue, Jun 4, 2013 - 1:57pm

Lots going on today and I'm off to a late start so let's dive right in.

First, let's talk about the price action today. After the surprising rally yesterday, I asked you to watch the Asia and London trade for clues to the Comex action today. What did we see? After a flat Asian session, the London Monkeys did their usual thing from about 2:00 am EDT on. The London Monkeys have now acted on 14 of the past 17 days. Check this chart from Ranting Andy:

The result was a giveback of more than half of yesterday's gains.

Why did we see this? Hard to say for sure but, with volume light ahead of the BLSBS later this week, I suspect that a lot of this was some Bullion Bank selling that was aimed at lessening some longs ahead of the CoT survey. No doubt the action since last Tuesday is a continuation of the trend of last week's report. Therefore, the banks tried today to lighten a few of the longs they had built up over the course of the week. This also serves the dual purpose of defending the 20-day MA and restoring some confidence to some of the shaky spec shorts. At any rate...we're down a modest $13 as I type. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Speaking of the CoT, there has been some excellent analysis written in the past few days so I thought I would highlight some here. Again, the positioning of the Commericals vs The Specs has gotten so extreme that it has reached historic levels. Ultimately, how you interpret this depends upon just whom you think is really in charge. Is it The Specs or do The Cartel Banks lead The Specs by the nose into whichever position they would like? Let's start with longtime CoT-watcher Gene Arensberg: https://www.gotgoldreport.com/2013/05/gold-and-silver-disaggregated-cot-report-dcot-for-may-31.html

Next, read this link over at KWN: https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/4_This_Amazing_Chart_Shows_Gold_Set_For_Massive_$1,000_Spike.html. While we might disagree that this chart alone shows that "gold is set for a massive $1000 spike", the interview is helpful and in contains this excellent chart. (Click on it to enlarge.)

Reading that article inspired the Turdite "WildStyleChef" to create the chart below. This shows graphically how Commercial positioning is inversely correlated to price. (Again, click to enlarge.)

OK, moving on. I found this to be interesting. Recall that when the Dutch bullion bank, ABN AMRO, announced their plan to settle in cash a few months back, many of us called it a default. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4667/gold-delivery-or-default This article published Friday follows along with that theme. I don't know anything about the author but that's OK. He probably doesn't know anything about me, either. https://www.jcaschipper.nl/2013/05/nationalized-abn-amro-offers-fools-gold/

Still lots of talk out there about Fed QE "tapering". Again, I think is all silly and it may be a non-topic as soon as Friday at 8:31 am. Regardless, as mentioned last week, even if The Bernank was to announce some type of "taper", it would likely come from the $40B/month MBS-purchase side of the QE∞ equation. The Fed could still monetize $45B/month in treasuries directly while cutting the Primary Dealer kickback life support handout welfare bullshit MBS purchases to $20B/month. This would still be $65B/month in QE and silence all the hawks. Not saying that it will happen, just saying that even if it did, it's no big deal! $65B/month is still nearly $800B/year in fresh greenback, created from whole cloth for the purpose of sustaining The Great Ponzi. Read more at ZH: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-04/chart-day-feds-taper-perspective And here's how it looks graphically:

Finally, I don't know if you've noticed but lately there sure have been a lot of big mines that have been taken off-line.

So, now, what to make of all this? Well, if you believe that everything is hunky-dory and that there are no supply issues in gold, then this is no big deal. After all, even though The Grasberg mine is the largest in the world, it still only produces about 30 metric tonnes per year or a little over 1% of all global mine production.

If, on the other hand, you think that the Bullion Banks are living hand-to-mouth and frantically trying to keep their Fractional Reserve Bullion Banking system alive, then it is a big deal. A very big deal.

That's a lot of gold...a lot of currently anticipated and expected supply that isn't coming. How much of this production was already sold forward into the market? And if it was already sold forward, what happens when it fails to materialize on schedule? Hmmmm. Could that lead to those contracts being covered? Could it lead to some new long purchasing as a hedge against supply delays, not only from the suppliers but from the end-users, as well? And with the current CoT structure in gold being akin to an overgrown and dried out California ravine just waiting for a spark...

Let's just leave it there for today. I hope that the rest of your Tuesday goes well and I look forward to seeing what tomorrow brings. Again, if I'm right about the cause of today's drop being Cartel CoT-positioning, then we should see a bit of a bounceback on the Globex and overnight.

TF

About the Author

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Hammer
Jun 5, 2013 - 8:25am

ADP numbers poor. Dollar down

ADP numbers poor. Dollar down and au goes up.

Jun 5, 2013 - 8:19am

Speaking of Witless, and as I seem to have the floor to myself

here is a picture of Witless Bay, Newfoundland, where I had the great pleasure to be last week.

¤
Jun 5, 2013 - 8:15am

(((echo)))

If a tree falls in the woods, does it make a sound? Of course it does. But.....what if it falls on deaf ears and no one is there to see it or cares about the noise? Therein lies the answer.

Jun 5, 2013 - 8:14am

Please skip unless you are following the self-destruction

of Monedas.

Calling for the death of my parents seems a little low. Dad is already dead, so you can save your breath there, and mum ain't long for this world. Neither happen to be French-Canadian but what the heck - hateful people must destroy beautiful things because they cannot stand the contrast to their own miserable souls. But let me let Dickens make my point for me, as he does so well in Nicholas Nickleby:

[T]he uncle and nephew looked at each other for some seconds without speaking. The face of the old man was stern, hard-featured, and forbidding; that of the young one, open, handsome, and ingenuous. The old man's eye was keen with the twinklings of avarice and cunning; the young man's bright with the light of intelligence and spirit. His figure was somewhat slight, but manly and well formed; and, apart from all the grace of youth and comeliness, there was an emanation from the warm young heart in his look and bearing which kept the old man down.

However striking such a contrast as this may be to lookers-on, none ever feel it with half the keenness or acuteness of perfection with which it strikes to the very soul of him whose inferiority it marks. It galled Ralph to the heart's core, and he hated Nicholas from that hour.

Can't we ban someone who wants my parents dead? Too late, as they have spawned, but still ... isn't it the thought that counts?

SilverSurfers
Jun 5, 2013 - 6:38am

Not

so happy wednesday, maybe. Smelling a traitorous rat bastard greedster and an open arms puppeteer, conspiring, china is decreasing, again.

Tickled

Submitted by Mad5Hatter on June 4, 2013 - 3:02pm. Greedsters: TBTF TBTJ Bullion Banks Flushing Traders, and Crimex Riggers Traitorously Selling. Puppeteers: GoldmanSucks and TinananmenSquares Theres rat bastards in the cellar, taking us a round and round. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8M60rLoCbbo
mac
Jun 5, 2013 - 5:34am

@mac re:it's the Media stupid!

With technique the disinformative media can reveal much.

In combat feint accompanies real action.

At the show the "magician" says "Look at my other hand" at the same time as he reaches under the table for his rabbit.

When a meme that goes against common sense is "pushed" the timing of the disinformation campaign points to the genuine intention. Timetable reveals cause. However often another last ditch distraction stands in front of the real actions, but the most polish is on the first facade. Their excuses get more whimsical or nonsensical as the strawmen are pushed aside and seedy reality slithers somewhat more into view..

mac
Jun 5, 2013 - 4:48am

it's the Media stupid!

CNBC and Bloomberg TV are our enemy.

They co-ordinate with the Fed and the Banksters. To lead us into poverty, to take our money!

They talk spin and bs all day, following their master's orders. Listen, these anchor people are simply reading words their Boss puts in front of them!

U think their Boss likes us to like gold?

"Tapering" is talked about all day these days. As the Fed keeps buying 7o% plus of all Bonds now. If they stop wtf, who will buy. Please, let me in on whom, just whom will buy this stuff?

MSM is Evil. It is one of our biggest enemies.

Spartacus Rex
Jun 5, 2013 - 4:31am

The "Zero Hour" Scenario

“Possession is nine-tenths of the law” — from a Scottish expression

It’s a Sunday night. October 2013. Parents are making sure the kids’ homework is done. Football fans are settling in for the night’s NFL matchup. Reigning champs, Baltimore, are about to lose. And all hell is breaking loose in the precious metals markets.

Moments before electronic trading opened at 6 p.m. EDT, Commodity Exchange Inc. — the Comex — announced it would settle a large gold contract in cash and not gold. To be blunt about it, the Comex has defaulted on its contract. Suddenly, everyone else with a gold contract — or a silver contract — started to wonder if they’d be next to get stiffed.

Gold, which ended that autumn week at $1,715 an ounce, starts gyrating wildly… but mostly up. By Monday morning, it’s up past $1,800. But good luck trying to get that price — or anything near it — at a coin shop or online dealer. Under normal circumstances, a $1,800 spot gold price would mean U.S. Gold Eagles around $1,890 — a 5% premium.

But on this day, buyers — desperate to get their hands on actual, physical metal because trust in the system is breaking down — have driven the price far above $2,000.

This is “zero hour” — the day you can mark on a calendar when the price of real metal breaks away forever from the quoted price on CNBC’s ticker. It’s the day you’ll be grateful you hold real metal and not a proxy like the GLD exchange-traded fund (ETF)(NYSE:GLD).

Sound far-fetched? Today, we’ll show you why it’s inevitable…

The Emperor’s New Clothes: Why Now Is the Worst Time to Give up on Gold

The “zero hour” scenario is the ultimate emperor-has-no-clothes moment. Hans Christian Andersen’s original 19th-century tale The Emperor’s New Clothes has become a 20th- and 21st-century touchstone for obvious truths overlooked by the masses. It is almost a cliche. But it is singularly appropriate for our purposes today.

The “emperor” here consists of central banks, commercial and investment banks and the commodities exchanges. The day everyone recognizes them as being buck naked — or in this case, stripped of the gold they claim to hold — will be “zero hour.” It’s the day you’ll be happy you held on, even as gold sank from $1,900 in September 2011 to less than $1,500 as we go to press.

You did hold on, didn’t you?

Well, you can “buy the dip,” at least.

Caution: What we are projecting here is nearly the ultimate in fat-tail events. It is the product of deep research by one of the gold market’s most plugged-in luminaries… plus our own informed speculation.

But make no mistake: Zero hour — in the form of a precious metals default on the Comex, or maybe the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) — is coming sooner or later.

“The odds of it happening are about 100%,” says Eric Sprott.

Mr. Sprott oversees $10 billion within the Canadian asset-management giant that bears his name. Among those assets is the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (NYSE:PHYS) — our recommended vehicle if you choose to keep a portion of your gold holdings in a brokerage account. To understand why it’s a certainty is to go deep down the rabbit hole… into the vaults of the world’s central banks. Sit tight…

12 Years and Counting: Demand Runs Away From Supply

We don’t want to make it sound more complicated than it is. At root, zero hour will come when everyone knows gold supply can no longer meet gold demand.

“When I look at the physical data that I can see in gold,” Sprott told us in a recent interview, “the gold market has not changed its supply fundamentals in 12 years. It’s flat.” Add up supply from new mines and recycled scrap gold — mostly old jewelry — and the World Gold Council reckons it’s rock-steady at about 3,700 tonnes (metric tons) per year.

And what about demand? Since gold began its bull run in 2000, scads of new demand sources have come into the picture.

  • Central banks, which were net sellers of gold in the ’80s and ’90s, became net buyers
  • Exchange-traded funds like GLD and trusts like PHYS didn’t even exist before 2004
  • Annual sales of gold coins by the U.S. and Canadian Mints have grown fourfold
  • Chinese consumption of gold has nearly quadrupled
  • Indian consumption (measured by imports) has grown 30% from an already high level. “The mere combination of only five separate sources of demand,” Sprott writes in a recent white paper, “results in a 2,268-tonne net change in physical demand for gold over the past 12 years — meaning that there is roughly 2,268 tonnes of new annual demand today that didn’t exist 12 years ago,” when supply and demand were more or less in balance.

    And those are only the official figures. “There are lots of other purchasers of gold that I don’t have records of,” he elaborated in our interview.

    “So for example, when somebody physically buys a gold bar, whether it’s [hedge fund manager] David Einhorn or the University of Texas endowment or someone like that, there’s no place that I can go and see how many bars were purchased. There’s no public documentation if Russian billionaires are buying gold.” For every story that makes the news, like Einhorn or UT, there might be 10 purchases that occur sub rosa.

    Summing up, nearly 2,300 tonnes (officially) of new demand each year are coming into a market where supply is still stuck at roughly 3,700 tonnes. “So where’s the gold coming from?” Mr. Sprott asks rhetorically. “Who’s supplying this gold?”

    After a research project that’s gone on as long as the bull market in gold, he’s left with only one plausible explanation — the one that makes default on a major commodity exchange inevitable.

    “The Western central banks,” he tells us, “are surreptitiously supplying gold by leasing theirs out.”

    The Central Banks’ Shell Game in Gold: “It’s Here… No, It’s Here”

    “Wait a minute,” you’re asking. “You just said central banks became net buyers of gold in the last decade.”

    True… but all the buying has come from developing countries like Russia, China, India and Kazakhstan.

    Meanwhile, the numbers from the big developed countries — the U.S. included — have been static.

    Remember the main reason central banks are in business — to benefit their biggest and most powerful member banks.

    And what’s beneficial to U.S. and European banks is gold leasing. Commercial and investment banks lease gold from a central bank at bargain rates — usually less than 1% a year. Then they sell that gold into the private market and plow the proceeds into… well, anything that yields more than 1%. It’s a sweet deal if you’re a banker.

    “But then the gold is gone, right?” Yes. If the central bank wants its gold back from the commercial and investment banks, those banks would have to buy gold on the open market — driving up the price. That’s a bad deal if you’re a banker.

    So usually, there’s a tacit understanding: Central banks don’t ask for their gold back, and the commercial and investment banks roll over their gold leases. As long as they’re earning more than 1%, the debt service is easy peasy.

    But if a central bank asks for its gold back, it’s game over.

    “They can get away with [the leasing],” Sprott explains, “because on their financial statements, the one line they have for gold says ‘gold and gold receivables.’ A receivable is not real gold, physical gold… and we don’t get a breakdown between the receivables and the physical. They’ve not provided that.”

    Look below and you can see the guile central bankers use to concede their gold “holdings” is not limited to bars in a vault.

    “It would not lend much credence to central bank credibility,” Sprott writes, “if they admitted they were leasing their gold reserves to ‘bullion bank’ intermediaries who were then turning around and selling their gold to China, for example.

    “But the numbers strongly suggest that that is exactly what has happened. The central banks’ gold is likely gone, and the bullion banks that sold it have no realistic chance of getting it back.”

    Add it all up and we’re getting much closer to zero hour.

    Addison Wiggin,
    for The Daily Reckoning https://dailyreckoning.com/the-zero-hour-scenario/

Karankawa
Jun 5, 2013 - 2:50am

World Bank Revolving Door of Corruption with Whistleblower Karen

Hudes.

The monkeys are going to have their hands full. Expect more Overlap type here soon.

Karen is doing a fantastic job once she figured out there is a 'real' media.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=4wDcnrIzi3Y

God Bless her, and her lioness spirit.

Karankawa

philipat
Jun 5, 2013 - 2:33am

London Monkeys....

...Are back on duty.

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