Gold Is Going To $800

184
Thu, May 30, 2013 - 11:28am

(The reverse psychology test from yesterday is working so well, I thought I'd better keep it going!)

Well, isn't this nice? A genuine, bona fide rally! What's the deal? I imagine that much of this is being driven by new long interest in gold...well, not that new. As we approach June13 contract expiration, we have seen a bunch of contract holders sell but not immediately roll into August. In fact, total open interest in gold fell by 24,000 contracts on Tuesday alone as June contracts were sold and/or covered.

So today, with price rallying, those longs who sold Tuesday or late last week and didn't immediately roll because they had hoped for lower prices before getting back in, are suddenly rushing back in and we're up over $20 as I type. Hey, whatever...we'll take it. So now, what?

Take a look at these charts. On the daily chart, notice the undeniably pretty double bottom at $1350. All along, Andy has been reporting very heavy buying interest and huge pending orders at and below $1350. Well, it certainly looks like he was accurate because every time the paper bears tried to break price down below that level, price almost immediately reversed and moved higher, no doubt on the back of bullion bank buying which hoped to keep those orders from filling. Now, not only does the daily chart look compelling, look at the shorter 4-hour chart, too. We had that spike high of $1413.30 last Wednesday as The Bernank's prepared remarks were released. You'll recall that price then collapsed amidst all the nonsense talk of "tapering". Well, lookyhere. We are right up against that level as I type. A move through and close above would be very bullish and would set the table for a move back toward the early-May highs just below $1500.

To bring all of this in line with yesterday's post...Part of the move today can be traced back to some lousy jobless claims and other data released earlier today. Yesterday's post carried the theme that the data was about to turn worse and all the talk of tapering was going to fade away. What I postulated yesterday was the possibility that price could be shaken out one more time before the BLSBS next Friday. It could still happen but, obviously, today's action makes it less likely.

Turning to silver, it too is rallying today, though not as aggressively as gold. This is also likely due to expiration as silver didn't/doesn't have as much "dry powder" on the sidelines at this moment. Regardless, look at these charts. First, note that $22 silver is very much like $1350 gold...a very solid floor. Outside of the nonsense shenanigans of two Sundays ago, $22 has held very well. Now, can it get up and go to the upside? Well, like gold, let's watch the spike high from last Wednesday for clues. IF silver can move decisively through the $23.30 area, fresh shorts will begin to cover more aggressively and we'll see a quick move toward $24. From there, the next target is the $24.84 high of 4/26.

Getting back to the open interest numbers, tomorrow's CoT is going to be a doozy. Tuesday was CoT survey day but it was also option expiration for the June13 which goes off the board on tomorrow. As mentioned above, almost all of the paper traders are currently liquidating June positions and rolling them into August and beyond. So, for the reporting week, though the price of gold was up a whopping $1.30, the total Comex open interest fell by almost 8% or 35,000 contracts. That's a lot. I'm very much looking forward to seeing who was buying/covering and who was selling. The silver CoT will be fun, too, as price fell by 25¢ but total OI also fell by about 3,500. Again, who was selling/covering/buying? We'll see. Only have to wait another 28 hours. Grrrr...

Finally, LOTS of interesting stuff emanating from the MENA again today. Just a few days ago, Russia pledged to send S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Syria and, from the looks of things, they're already there: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-30/first-shipment-russian-s-300-rockets-arrives-syria but debka claims that they're not: https://www.debka.com/article/23002/Israeli-intelligence-denies-first-Russian-S-300s-arrive-in-Syria---contrary-to-Assad’s-claim-. Either way, this entire situation is getting stickier by the hour. Now, you may ask what this has to do with a PM-related website but I can assure you, if things get out of control in the MENA, there ain't gonna be any imminent QE tapering, that's for sure. So we're going to continue to watch this closely. One "tell" will be the price of crude. It has magically stayed below the trendline drawn on this chart since the QE∞ announcement last September. If/when is busts through, you'll know something is up, whether or not Syria is "fixed".

And all this talk about World War III has me thinking this morning about a book I read six or seven years ago. It's one of those novels that try to intertwine current events into a fictional format. This one dealt with war in the MENA and looked at it through the prism of The Old Testament prophecies of Ezekiel. Look, it's not for everybody and I certainly don't mean to turn this thread into a religious debate...but I get asked for book recommendations all the time and this is a fun and timely read. You should pick it up before heading out for vacation or to the beach.

OK, that's all for now. As I close I see that the metals are still hanging in there at $1415 and $23. Keep your fingers crossed.

TF

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  184 Comments

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Bugzy
May 30, 2013 - 4:37pm

Nana

Yes, I know where you are coming from. Yet I am choosing to adhere to the bossman and not get into anymore religious debates. They are beliefs and ways of life that we each hold dear. There are no real right or wrongs, just beliefs. To each his OWN - emphasis on own.

Personally, I find it embarrassing to frequent a metals forum and see, what IN MY MIND is fanatical drivel by unstable brainwashed individuals who make no sense whatsoever (even if I were to put my old religious hat on). I like to read all comments by posters. It just really makes me cringe to see it, abusive and offensive if you will.

Yet, I know you to be a religious person. So I doubt my comments will be well received by you. I will not discuss any more here. I am more than happy to continue via PM.

And back to the point of the show:

This is well worth a watch: Yes, guy was bearish on metals now bullish.

https://goldsilver.com/video/doug-kass-goes-for-gold-this-is-an-absolute...

Nana
May 30, 2013 - 4:31pm

Options

There is an ignore option- I have no one on ignore, it's a freedom of speech thing.

There is a scroll on your mouse, simply scroll on by.

However the questions needs to be asked:

Aren't we all adults?

Aren't we all on the same road to self reliance? If so, why would you want anyone moderated? Wouldn't that fall in line with the same tactics TPTB are doing?

If this community can't get along now, what's going to happen when things hit the fan?

This community is not a cookie cutter community, this is a well informed, bright, highly educated, caring community. We all teach and learn from each other to prepare for what is coming.

Discord serves only to divide.

As wise men once stated:

"We must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately" Benjamin Franklin

“We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor” The final sentence of the Declaration of Independence

Cry Me A River
May 30, 2013 - 4:26pm

Silverdutch ROFL!

And Obummer Concludes His Press Conference...

Bollocks
May 30, 2013 - 4:26pm
Monedas
May 30, 2013 - 4:25pm

Nonoverlooping Mentis !

Apart from their bizarre need .... to emote and hold hands .... sing Kumbaya .... and reach out to Liberals .... and hope that they will approve of us .... I find the people around here .... confident .... well informed .... positive .... and ready to kick some serious butt .... in the game of life ! You've got your work cut out for you .... around here .... in this darkest hour .... before the light ! I hope you are still with us for the Victory parade .... so we can razz the Holy shit out of you ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad You Don't Got What It Takes To Take Down Monedas World Tour

Silverdutch
May 30, 2013 - 4:21pm

And Obummer said to

And Obummer said to Turd "Turd you didn't create this board,...".

beardeus
May 30, 2013 - 4:18pm

@ Northern Border

I agree. Even the people who sell gold have great interest in you buying it. Things are surely growing dark but don't go to extremes.

Joel Skousen, who is regularly on Alex Jones, served in the military and helps people strategically relocate, says that we more time than many people have us think.

Don't get me wrong, I love people like Ron Paul and Peter Schiff. They are heroes of mine in certain ways but they are simply wrong about hyperinflation. Even I have posted from time to "watch the debt ceiling". We, I, need to stop looking linear. This is a global issue and is not isolated as: "more debt=higher gold price". USA debt doubled in the 80s, did gold?

Have patience. Help others. Learn skills. Garden and most importantly give to others and help the poor, needy and broken. Your money WILL die with you! Don't be like Lazarus in the New Testament.

question
May 30, 2013 - 4:15pm

@ SouthernCross

I guess if you keep talking long enough you'll convince yourself?

Cry Me A River
May 30, 2013 - 4:15pm

And the Creator Told Jakeblues To Write---

You see, the Creator talked to Bohemian, in His own way, and helped him to tell members like "Southern Cross" that Turd created this board. And He told Bohemian to tell "Southern Cross" that Turd told people like "Southern Cross" to move this talk about him in general to Forums, because the Creator wants the main board to be dedicated to gold and silver, to His great creation.

The Creator then told Bohemian to ask "Southern Cross" this question, "Why would you say that this clearly requested Creator's will would be foolish and silly? And then, no matter what Turd says and thinks, it is the Creator's will and design, in the background, His way of doing things. Then, The Creator Told Bohemian To Tell Southern Cross, "That's why we all are here"... And that He, (The Creator) said, that Bohemian was told this in a dream: Go and find Turd! The Creator then sent shock waves to the Bohemian and he, The Bohemian, said, "I was in shock! What Turd? Why...?"

But, then the creator told Bohemian to go out, and search the web, and The Bohemian did find this place established for him, too, by Turd, who was created by Him.

Then at that very moment, that precise micro-millisecond in time, He, (The Creator), sent waves of amazement to the Bohemian-Where, upon being amazed, said, "Isn't it amazing how it works?"

Then---at that very moment in time, Jake said,

LIVE LONG AND PROSPER---BOHEMIAN!

Sad-descent
May 30, 2013 - 4:12pm

Re: Miners

Mining stock held their own while the DOW came off its' high late in the day. Not sure if significant, but certainly not a bad sign.

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