Gold Is Going To $800

184
Thu, May 30, 2013 - 11:28am

(The reverse psychology test from yesterday is working so well, I thought I'd better keep it going!)

Well, isn't this nice? A genuine, bona fide rally! What's the deal? I imagine that much of this is being driven by new long interest in gold...well, not that new. As we approach June13 contract expiration, we have seen a bunch of contract holders sell but not immediately roll into August. In fact, total open interest in gold fell by 24,000 contracts on Tuesday alone as June contracts were sold and/or covered.

So today, with price rallying, those longs who sold Tuesday or late last week and didn't immediately roll because they had hoped for lower prices before getting back in, are suddenly rushing back in and we're up over $20 as I type. Hey, whatever...we'll take it. So now, what?

Take a look at these charts. On the daily chart, notice the undeniably pretty double bottom at $1350. All along, Andy has been reporting very heavy buying interest and huge pending orders at and below $1350. Well, it certainly looks like he was accurate because every time the paper bears tried to break price down below that level, price almost immediately reversed and moved higher, no doubt on the back of bullion bank buying which hoped to keep those orders from filling. Now, not only does the daily chart look compelling, look at the shorter 4-hour chart, too. We had that spike high of $1413.30 last Wednesday as The Bernank's prepared remarks were released. You'll recall that price then collapsed amidst all the nonsense talk of "tapering". Well, lookyhere. We are right up against that level as I type. A move through and close above would be very bullish and would set the table for a move back toward the early-May highs just below $1500.

To bring all of this in line with yesterday's post...Part of the move today can be traced back to some lousy jobless claims and other data released earlier today. Yesterday's post carried the theme that the data was about to turn worse and all the talk of tapering was going to fade away. What I postulated yesterday was the possibility that price could be shaken out one more time before the BLSBS next Friday. It could still happen but, obviously, today's action makes it less likely.

Turning to silver, it too is rallying today, though not as aggressively as gold. This is also likely due to expiration as silver didn't/doesn't have as much "dry powder" on the sidelines at this moment. Regardless, look at these charts. First, note that $22 silver is very much like $1350 gold...a very solid floor. Outside of the nonsense shenanigans of two Sundays ago, $22 has held very well. Now, can it get up and go to the upside? Well, like gold, let's watch the spike high from last Wednesday for clues. IF silver can move decisively through the $23.30 area, fresh shorts will begin to cover more aggressively and we'll see a quick move toward $24. From there, the next target is the $24.84 high of 4/26.

Getting back to the open interest numbers, tomorrow's CoT is going to be a doozy. Tuesday was CoT survey day but it was also option expiration for the June13 which goes off the board on tomorrow. As mentioned above, almost all of the paper traders are currently liquidating June positions and rolling them into August and beyond. So, for the reporting week, though the price of gold was up a whopping $1.30, the total Comex open interest fell by almost 8% or 35,000 contracts. That's a lot. I'm very much looking forward to seeing who was buying/covering and who was selling. The silver CoT will be fun, too, as price fell by 25¢ but total OI also fell by about 3,500. Again, who was selling/covering/buying? We'll see. Only have to wait another 28 hours. Grrrr...

Finally, LOTS of interesting stuff emanating from the MENA again today. Just a few days ago, Russia pledged to send S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Syria and, from the looks of things, they're already there: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-30/first-shipment-russian-s-300-rockets-arrives-syria but debka claims that they're not: https://www.debka.com/article/23002/Israeli-intelligence-denies-first-Russian-S-300s-arrive-in-Syria---contrary-to-Assad’s-claim-. Either way, this entire situation is getting stickier by the hour. Now, you may ask what this has to do with a PM-related website but I can assure you, if things get out of control in the MENA, there ain't gonna be any imminent QE tapering, that's for sure. So we're going to continue to watch this closely. One "tell" will be the price of crude. It has magically stayed below the trendline drawn on this chart since the QE∞ announcement last September. If/when is busts through, you'll know something is up, whether or not Syria is "fixed".

And all this talk about World War III has me thinking this morning about a book I read six or seven years ago. It's one of those novels that try to intertwine current events into a fictional format. This one dealt with war in the MENA and looked at it through the prism of The Old Testament prophecies of Ezekiel. Look, it's not for everybody and I certainly don't mean to turn this thread into a religious debate...but I get asked for book recommendations all the time and this is a fun and timely read. You should pick it up before heading out for vacation or to the beach.

OK, that's all for now. As I close I see that the metals are still hanging in there at $1415 and $23. Keep your fingers crossed.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

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Zoltan
May 30, 2013 - 5:27pm

Metal's Distraction

Silver Lease Rates
May 30 2013 Change
1M -0.2562% -0.4452
2M -0.2495% -0.4757
3M 0.2698% -0.0012
6M 0.4113% +0.0001
1Y 0.1580% -0.5272

This is like watching a yoyo. Updated after the close again (guess this is the new SOP). I think Turd wants us to stick to the metals on main street cause religion is a divisive topic. Let's face it, you won't be changing anyone's religious beliefs by arguing about them on the internet.

Z

monkry
May 30, 2013 - 5:21pm

Actually

A troll strategy would be to leave the comments and never return.

I don't give care what religion, if any you follow. I sure as shit don't come here to be saved.

I was stupid for taking your bait, it won't happen again.

AlexCojones
May 30, 2013 - 5:20pm
cpnscarlet
May 30, 2013 - 5:19pm

RmanJ - not quite

As I reminded us yesterday, Williams' original predictionn was for a dollar sell off by the end of May, not late 2013. If he ever updated that prediction, I didn't see it.

القراع عصفور
May 30, 2013 - 5:19pm

we disagree on some details

that's all. and that goes to all of you here for the most part.

monkrey - thanks for the label. you do not know my religious beliefs. your reading comprehension needs some improvement. and posting then deleting then reposting then redeleting inflammatory comments is a tried and true troll strategy. just saying.

anyone here for a while has probably figured out by now that i will defend anyone being bullied here. that is the only reason i posted in this thread.

hope from here on, this thread gets back to topic.

XXOO to Nana.

edit: i see you edited your last post also monkrey! 3rd time today! i alerted the mods.

Strawboss
May 30, 2013 - 5:18pm

Discussion of

Discussion of religious/spiritual beliefs

I have never understood the animosity of some to any kind of discussion of religious/spiritual beliefs. It is even accepted that it isnt polite to discuss religion or politics in certain settings because of the emotional consequences of said discussions.

Those that would prefer not to hear such things always seem to get what they want - i.e. they "shout it down", trivialize it, demand that it be removed, etc...

I have always wondered...why do they end up being the ones that get what they want? Where is the tolerance? Where is the standing up for "freedom of speech" to protect the rights of another? Are they ok with "selective" freedom of speech so longs as the "speech" is that they are approving of?

The arguments for/against the existence of a Creator are never ending and I suspect that will always be the case. Once you get past that argument - the next one is "which religion is right" - there are so many of them.

I find a tremendous amount of similarities between trying to find Truth and "honest money". The same forces that try to suppress Truth are the same forces that try to suppress honest money.

Jesus said it best - they hate the Light because their deeds are evil and the Light exposes those evil deeds. Better to make the Light go away so their filth can remain covered in darkness.

Interesting behavior from what are otherwise very intelligent and genial people. Makes you wonder why they hold so much animosity/hatred towards those that would speak of their religious/spiritual beliefs.

.

Cry Me A River
May 30, 2013 - 5:13pm

thesandbox

FASCINATING!

monkryالقراع عصفور
May 30, 2013 - 5:12pm

Argh fed the troll

Dammit, I know better. I'm pissed at myself for taking the bait.

murphy
May 30, 2013 - 5:08pm

Corbett Report

Speaks to freedom

Published on May 28, 2013

TRANSCRIPT AND SOURCES: https://www.corbettreport.com/?p=7416

In recent weeks we have been told to focus on a series of scandals which, we are told, are rocking the Obama Administration. Has the media finally found outrage over the Obama regime's use of drone strikes to kill scores of innocent women and children in countries that are not even at war with the United States? Or the DOJ's recent admission that the strikes had indeed killed American citizens? Or John Kerry's recent attempts to once again lead the American public into supporting military intervention in the Middle East based on provably false claims of WMD?

Of course not. No, the media's sudden discovery of outrage is directed at an entirely different scandal: the fact that reporters have now allegedly found themselves in the government's crosshairs.

Find out more about the real scandal behind the AP spying story in this weeks edition of The Eyeopener from BoilingFrogsPost.com

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