Gold Is Going To $800

Thu, May 30, 2013 - 11:28am

(The reverse psychology test from yesterday is working so well, I thought I'd better keep it going!)

Well, isn't this nice? A genuine, bona fide rally! What's the deal? I imagine that much of this is being driven by new long interest in gold...well, not that new. As we approach June13 contract expiration, we have seen a bunch of contract holders sell but not immediately roll into August. In fact, total open interest in gold fell by 24,000 contracts on Tuesday alone as June contracts were sold and/or covered.

So today, with price rallying, those longs who sold Tuesday or late last week and didn't immediately roll because they had hoped for lower prices before getting back in, are suddenly rushing back in and we're up over $20 as I type. Hey, whatever...we'll take it. So now, what?

Take a look at these charts. On the daily chart, notice the undeniably pretty double bottom at $1350. All along, Andy has been reporting very heavy buying interest and huge pending orders at and below $1350. Well, it certainly looks like he was accurate because every time the paper bears tried to break price down below that level, price almost immediately reversed and moved higher, no doubt on the back of bullion bank buying which hoped to keep those orders from filling. Now, not only does the daily chart look compelling, look at the shorter 4-hour chart, too. We had that spike high of $1413.30 last Wednesday as The Bernank's prepared remarks were released. You'll recall that price then collapsed amidst all the nonsense talk of "tapering". Well, lookyhere. We are right up against that level as I type. A move through and close above would be very bullish and would set the table for a move back toward the early-May highs just below $1500.

To bring all of this in line with yesterday's post...Part of the move today can be traced back to some lousy jobless claims and other data released earlier today. Yesterday's post carried the theme that the data was about to turn worse and all the talk of tapering was going to fade away. What I postulated yesterday was the possibility that price could be shaken out one more time before the BLSBS next Friday. It could still happen but, obviously, today's action makes it less likely.

Turning to silver, it too is rallying today, though not as aggressively as gold. This is also likely due to expiration as silver didn't/doesn't have as much "dry powder" on the sidelines at this moment. Regardless, look at these charts. First, note that $22 silver is very much like $1350 gold...a very solid floor. Outside of the nonsense shenanigans of two Sundays ago, $22 has held very well. Now, can it get up and go to the upside? Well, like gold, let's watch the spike high from last Wednesday for clues. IF silver can move decisively through the $23.30 area, fresh shorts will begin to cover more aggressively and we'll see a quick move toward $24. From there, the next target is the $24.84 high of 4/26.

Getting back to the open interest numbers, tomorrow's CoT is going to be a doozy. Tuesday was CoT survey day but it was also option expiration for the June13 which goes off the board on tomorrow. As mentioned above, almost all of the paper traders are currently liquidating June positions and rolling them into August and beyond. So, for the reporting week, though the price of gold was up a whopping $1.30, the total Comex open interest fell by almost 8% or 35,000 contracts. That's a lot. I'm very much looking forward to seeing who was buying/covering and who was selling. The silver CoT will be fun, too, as price fell by 25¢ but total OI also fell by about 3,500. Again, who was selling/covering/buying? We'll see. Only have to wait another 28 hours. Grrrr...

Finally, LOTS of interesting stuff emanating from the MENA again today. Just a few days ago, Russia pledged to send S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Syria and, from the looks of things, they're already there: but debka claims that they're not:’s-claim-. Either way, this entire situation is getting stickier by the hour. Now, you may ask what this has to do with a PM-related website but I can assure you, if things get out of control in the MENA, there ain't gonna be any imminent QE tapering, that's for sure. So we're going to continue to watch this closely. One "tell" will be the price of crude. It has magically stayed below the trendline drawn on this chart since the QE∞ announcement last September. If/when is busts through, you'll know something is up, whether or not Syria is "fixed".

And all this talk about World War III has me thinking this morning about a book I read six or seven years ago. It's one of those novels that try to intertwine current events into a fictional format. This one dealt with war in the MENA and looked at it through the prism of The Old Testament prophecies of Ezekiel. Look, it's not for everybody and I certainly don't mean to turn this thread into a religious debate...but I get asked for book recommendations all the time and this is a fun and timely read. You should pick it up before heading out for vacation or to the beach.

OK, that's all for now. As I close I see that the metals are still hanging in there at $1415 and $23. Keep your fingers crossed.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 30, 2013 - 6:22pm

ok let me try it this way

Would it be ok for all those bible thumpers out there if I where to repeatedly post how good Islam was ( especially after Turd said stop) and that it was the true way to God.

No - I did not think so. You would be up in alms.

So what you folk do is actually, my way or the highway. Or though shalt be smoted with a pox of galloping willy rot if thee does not accept jesus as lord yada yada. NO ifs and or buts or maybe.

And a religion that promotes tolerance as its backbone, demonstrates no tolerance whatsoever for ANY view other than their own NARROW view and feel it is their MISSION in life to spread their brand of interpretation of GOD KNOWS what!

Can people please just realize that what they have is a BELIEF and not actually a universal fact (in that they are actually a very small group globally speaking). The vast vast majority of folk on this planet do not hold your beliefs.

All I see is elitism, exclusivity, judgment, talks of violence, talk of great wealth (Gods needs us to own Gold)- while at the same time talking about end of times. The antithesis of Christianity - scarily irrational. Stick with the Jesus love and peace and forgiveness thing if you insist on being a Christian. Better still, keep it to yourself. You will never convert anyone.

No I am not a Muslim or any other denomination.

Cry Me A River
May 30, 2013 - 6:16pm

And Then, After That Deplorable Display Of Bad Manners...

At The Chez Paul, We Had To Go See The Penguin:

May 30, 2013 - 6:01pm

My take....

just a quick take on my perspectives over the last few years then I will get back to the things at hand....and this will be quick.....

1. Raised Catholic

2. Became a "christian" around 18

3. Toured in a christian band for a number of years and then worship teams in Nashville

4. Knew there was more and the real truth was not being spoken or taught

5. That search for truth led to silver, PM's, manipulation of all sorts, and had to go back to the begining

6. Left organized church about 6-7 years ago with a few families (who now have goats) ;) and started studing the Old Testamant a bit more in depth

7. Started to celebrate the OT Feasts that were never done away with and have now left behind Christmas, Easter etc....

8. Realized how poorly translated our bible is from the origianl Hebrew...including some NT books like Matthew.

9.Realized how this is all coming together for me like the most perfect of puzzles and that christianity today is so far off base....especially in the context of doing away with His word, tithing, pagen celebrations, and that everything is now "new" or renewed. It is is just being fulfilled in reality.

10. If you are inclined for truth in as much as most of us are here in that we are being lied to and manipulated from all angles I encourage you to start back over and throw most of what you have been taught out the window....there is much to be discovered in the Hebrew Roots.

11. I do not think any person in 100% correct and we all have human tendancies but here are just a couple good links if you have any interest.

12. Gold and silver are real money.

The past few years for me have been the most eye opening and the search for truth will lead you led us all here! ...a bit of a character but he speaks the truth and even about the Fed, fiat..etc.. ....intro into Truth or Tradtion

May 30, 2013 - 5:53pm


You are right, I agree completely, and the new ones need to be admonish, that church chat is in the forum, and should not post stuff like:

Dear Lord, all praise be yours, and in your infinite mercy, show us all the light and strength to smite the foe, for all glory is yours, and forgive us all our sins, in Jesus name, Amen.

It just aint cool to non-belivers, they get all pissy, at the drop of the prayer, and so, dont disrespect the general population, and so, please take it and that to the forums for out of sight out of mind.

GET IT??????

May 30, 2013 - 5:51pm

There's something you don't often see ...

The DOW and gold both UP 20. Now we need some UP 100 days for both of them.

Patience Grasshopper ...

Karate Kid - Wax on Wax off

wax off

May 30, 2013 - 5:47pm

Help III

Im looking for a cite of a video done about early april, huge instantaneously sale spike, like 5B$ worth, that just so happen to have small spikes ahead of it, there was a graph, as the user talked showing resizing for presentation, and then audio describting, indicating trade signally to cohorts for front running. Anyone recall? PM please.

May 30, 2013 - 5:46pm

Main Street is about metals

Main Street is about metals and economics, new people that want to learn something about the subject don't want to see debates about religion.

No one is saying don't talk about it, just take it to the forums.

What would a first time visitor think when they see 3-4 pages of religious debate on a gold/silver site? Never visit again, that is not what Turd wants.

Cry Me A River
May 30, 2013 - 5:37pm

Let's Try This Again Okay, Strawboss?

You see, the Creator talked to JakeBlues, in His own way, and helped him to tell members like "Strawboss" that Turd created this board. And He told JakeBlues to tell "Strawboss" that Turd told people like "Strawboss" to move this talk about him in general to Forums, because the Creator wants the main board to be dedicated to gold and silver, to His great creation.

The Creator then told JakeBlues to ask "Strawboss" this question, "Why would you say that this clearly requested Creator's will would be foolish and silly? And then, no matter what Turd says and thinks, it is the Creator's will and design, in the background, His way of doing things. Then, The Creator Told JakeBlues To Tell Strawboss, "That's why we all are here"... And that He, (The Creator) said, that JakeBlues was told this in a dream: Go and find Turd! The Creator then sent shock waves to JakeBlues and he, The JakeBlues, said, "I was in shock! What Turd? Why...?"

But, then the creator told JakeBlues to go out, and search the web, and The JakeBlues did find this place established for him, too, by Turd, who was created by Him.

Then at that very moment, that precise micro-millisecond in time, He, (The Creator), sent waves of amazement to the JakeBlues-Where, upon being amazed, said, "Isn't it amazing how it works?"

Then---at that very moment in time, Jake Opened His Mouth At The Chez Paul:

القراع عصفور
May 30, 2013 - 5:30pm

what monkry wrote

"A troll strategy would be to leave the comments and never return.

I don't give care what religion, if any you follow. I sure as shit don't come here to be saved.

I was stupid for taking your bait, it won't happen again."

this way, he can't change anything.

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