Gold Is Going To $800

184
Thu, May 30, 2013 - 11:28am

(The reverse psychology test from yesterday is working so well, I thought I'd better keep it going!)

Well, isn't this nice? A genuine, bona fide rally! What's the deal? I imagine that much of this is being driven by new long interest in gold...well, not that new. As we approach June13 contract expiration, we have seen a bunch of contract holders sell but not immediately roll into August. In fact, total open interest in gold fell by 24,000 contracts on Tuesday alone as June contracts were sold and/or covered.

So today, with price rallying, those longs who sold Tuesday or late last week and didn't immediately roll because they had hoped for lower prices before getting back in, are suddenly rushing back in and we're up over $20 as I type. Hey, whatever...we'll take it. So now, what?

Take a look at these charts. On the daily chart, notice the undeniably pretty double bottom at $1350. All along, Andy has been reporting very heavy buying interest and huge pending orders at and below $1350. Well, it certainly looks like he was accurate because every time the paper bears tried to break price down below that level, price almost immediately reversed and moved higher, no doubt on the back of bullion bank buying which hoped to keep those orders from filling. Now, not only does the daily chart look compelling, look at the shorter 4-hour chart, too. We had that spike high of $1413.30 last Wednesday as The Bernank's prepared remarks were released. You'll recall that price then collapsed amidst all the nonsense talk of "tapering". Well, lookyhere. We are right up against that level as I type. A move through and close above would be very bullish and would set the table for a move back toward the early-May highs just below $1500.

To bring all of this in line with yesterday's post...Part of the move today can be traced back to some lousy jobless claims and other data released earlier today. Yesterday's post carried the theme that the data was about to turn worse and all the talk of tapering was going to fade away. What I postulated yesterday was the possibility that price could be shaken out one more time before the BLSBS next Friday. It could still happen but, obviously, today's action makes it less likely.

Turning to silver, it too is rallying today, though not as aggressively as gold. This is also likely due to expiration as silver didn't/doesn't have as much "dry powder" on the sidelines at this moment. Regardless, look at these charts. First, note that $22 silver is very much like $1350 gold...a very solid floor. Outside of the nonsense shenanigans of two Sundays ago, $22 has held very well. Now, can it get up and go to the upside? Well, like gold, let's watch the spike high from last Wednesday for clues. IF silver can move decisively through the $23.30 area, fresh shorts will begin to cover more aggressively and we'll see a quick move toward $24. From there, the next target is the $24.84 high of 4/26.

Getting back to the open interest numbers, tomorrow's CoT is going to be a doozy. Tuesday was CoT survey day but it was also option expiration for the June13 which goes off the board on tomorrow. As mentioned above, almost all of the paper traders are currently liquidating June positions and rolling them into August and beyond. So, for the reporting week, though the price of gold was up a whopping $1.30, the total Comex open interest fell by almost 8% or 35,000 contracts. That's a lot. I'm very much looking forward to seeing who was buying/covering and who was selling. The silver CoT will be fun, too, as price fell by 25¢ but total OI also fell by about 3,500. Again, who was selling/covering/buying? We'll see. Only have to wait another 28 hours. Grrrr...

Finally, LOTS of interesting stuff emanating from the MENA again today. Just a few days ago, Russia pledged to send S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Syria and, from the looks of things, they're already there: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-30/first-shipment-russian-s-300-rockets-arrives-syria but debka claims that they're not: https://www.debka.com/article/23002/Israeli-intelligence-denies-first-Russian-S-300s-arrive-in-Syria---contrary-to-Assad’s-claim-. Either way, this entire situation is getting stickier by the hour. Now, you may ask what this has to do with a PM-related website but I can assure you, if things get out of control in the MENA, there ain't gonna be any imminent QE tapering, that's for sure. So we're going to continue to watch this closely. One "tell" will be the price of crude. It has magically stayed below the trendline drawn on this chart since the QE∞ announcement last September. If/when is busts through, you'll know something is up, whether or not Syria is "fixed".

And all this talk about World War III has me thinking this morning about a book I read six or seven years ago. It's one of those novels that try to intertwine current events into a fictional format. This one dealt with war in the MENA and looked at it through the prism of The Old Testament prophecies of Ezekiel. Look, it's not for everybody and I certainly don't mean to turn this thread into a religious debate...but I get asked for book recommendations all the time and this is a fun and timely read. You should pick it up before heading out for vacation or to the beach.

OK, that's all for now. As I close I see that the metals are still hanging in there at $1415 and $23. Keep your fingers crossed.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  184 Comments

  Refresh
Southern Cross¤
May 30, 2013 - 8:52pm

Thanks

Thanks.

¤
May 30, 2013 - 8:41pm

Southern Cross

No offense....but did you see TF's request/ demand on the last page?

I'd hate to see you banned for a week. Pretty sure you'd like to avoid that also.

Just a polite heads up

May 30, 2013 - 8:24pm

New thread

New thread

Cry Me A River
May 30, 2013 - 8:23pm

Kerbouchard

Hey---Glad You Had A Good Laugh!

Cya All Tomorrow!

¤
May 30, 2013 - 8:13pm

??????

Filling in the blanks up above.....long version.

Conspiracy Fact: In a classic zig-zag tactic the Fed and other CB's are publicly painting gold negative via price suppression (afterall....who would want to own volatile gold when they could re-enter the wealth effect machine...oop's...I mean stock market) while the CB's take advantage of the lower prices in an attempt to hoard physical gold while unwinding the massively leveraged gold/silver vehicles they've already milked billions from.

In this instance, they'll have milked the various etf's and other PM bullion holding vaults/accounts for all their fiat worth (and their metal) and then close those vehicles and not deliver the metal but settle in cash (the same cash they've previously milked...or printed).

The general public (not us here) who stayed away from gold will one day be told by CB's (more precisely....the BIS) that CB gold needs to be the basis of all trade settlements which gives the CB's the green light to revalue gold much higher and go to another monetary unit....an implied GFRN or Pound or Mark etc.

Revalued so high in price....that the same general public who mostly avoided gold when it was cheaper and available.....will no longer be able to afford or find gold when they'll need to do so the most.

They zig.....most people zag.

In our case on here and other PM savvy sites...we saw it coming and BTFD years ahead of time.

Moral......keep BTFD responsibly when you can while it's affordable and available.

Just imagine one day what the price, premiums or (non) availability might be at the LCS and online stores when price rockets

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

AlexCojones
May 30, 2013 - 8:00pm

Way Way Off Topic Here - LCS Report - West Seattle

First of all, Hat Tip-on-steroids to TF for finally taking off the gloves re religious posts. I'm spiritual and I LIKE Southern Cross, but If I'm NOT allowed to post photos of Gold & Silver bikinis, or bloody gory photos of the Weekly False Flag event, then posters who ignore Mister T should be sent to a corner. Me included.

With metals rangebound, we sure do like to go agro and cannabalize each other. I may find NOL somewhat annoying but then I find the baconites almost as annoying - and I Eat Bacon.

LCS Report from one of the TOP LCS I've ever visited. West Seattle Coins, at the corner of Oregon and California streets in trendy West Seattle. Place had soft cushy chairs! Smallish, well-lit corner shop with long display cases brimming with numis. A price board on the back wall. And a hot hot clerk (Dierdre) among the coin clerks. Frank the owner was all too kind and courteous. I got to drool over the huge hoard of AG on display, tubes of ASEs and sheets of 2013 silver pandas, and stare at the AG. Saw a young woman with six AGEs on a tray in front of her. She was wearing a wedding ring. I asked her politely: Are you buying or selling? Selling she said, with an uncomfortable smile. The clerk was writing her a check.

Pandas were selling for $31 and change. Generics for $2.50 over spot. Silver Maples carried a $3.50 premium. ASEs carried a $4.25 premium but Frank had some early date silver eagles in airtites and he sold me a BU 1993 for $27.05. Love the high gloss of the early dates. The satin finish of 21 century eagles makes me yawn. I would have loved to buy many more, all he had in fact, (he had several more) but after the road trip my funds were ziltch.

Lots of customers and a good place to hang and sip a coffee and watch people come and go. I'll be back when I return from AK.

Now back to your regularly scheduled religious - and religion battering - show

AC not PC

Kerbouchard
May 30, 2013 - 7:57pm

Jake...

...late to the board, but just had to comment on your "religious" posts.

Hilarious!

argent rampant
May 30, 2013 - 7:52pm

@NEKO

Patience, my friend. I've been here for 2 years and believe me, it's well worth enduring an occasional session of religious venting or gun debates or whatever. The collective wisdom dispensed here is superb and, usually, we're pretty tolerant and polite to each other.

How about we put all the first, second, third stuff in short posts right at the beginning and let Turd decide when and how much religious debate to tolerate on his blog? Oh, wait, that's what we are doing!

Mantis
May 30, 2013 - 7:42pm

Fooled the sentiment bots

Keep the negative forecasts coming.

Heres a bit more negative psychology for good measure. I've had enough, and decided to capitulate. I'm selling all my silver and gold and precious metals and getting into equities, can't bear to watch all that action and miss out. Buying shares is the way to go.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by Silverbull8888, 2 hours 25 min ago
by Steve S, 4 hours 3 min ago
by Steve S, 4 hours 21 min ago
by hdlr, 11 hours 9 min ago
by jack3617, Aug 6, 2020 - 8:28pm