The Riff-Raffle Drawing

Sat, May 25, 2013 - 1:21pm

With a little help from my glamorous assistant, the official drawing was held earlier today.

Preserved for posterity, the entire drawing was taped and you can view the proceedings by watching the YouTube clip below. Later this weekend or early next week, I'll send out emails connecting prize winners with prize contributors. I'll be using the email addresses supplied by PayPal through the ticket purchase process.



About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 25, 2013 - 1:26pm



Swift Boat Vet
May 25, 2013 - 1:27pm

Congrats to -------

Turd and the winners!!


May 25, 2013 - 1:28pm

Bass Sees BOJ Bond Purchases Overwhelmed as Investors Dump Debt

May 24 (Bloomberg) -- J. Kyle Bass, whose Hayman Advisors LP made $500 million amid the U.S. subprime crisis, said the Bank of Japan will have to “dramatically” increase bond-buying efforts that have been “overwhelmed” by investors selling.

Benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yields rose to 1 percent yesterday for the first time since April 2012, more than triple the all-time low reached last month, a day after the BOJ announced unprecedented bond buying. Japanese shares also plunged the most in two years, trimming gains since November when Shinzo Abe called for expanded fiscal and monetary stimulus before elections that made him prime minister.

“Abe and the BOJ face what I call the ‘rational investor paradox,’” Dallas-based Bass, who has predicted a financial collapse in Japan since 2010, wrote in an e-mailed response to questions. “If JGB investors begin to believe that Abenomics will be successful, they will ‘rationally’ sell JGBs to buy foreign bonds or equities.”

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said after a board meeting two days ago that excessive bond-market volatility must be avoided and he will adjust debt-buying operations as needed. His board affirmed a policy set on April 4 of expanding the monetary base to fuel 2 percent inflation in two years. JGBs rallied yesterday after the BOJ said it would supply 2 trillion yen ($19.7 billion) in one-year funds to financial markets.

Debt Service

The 10-year JGB yield closed down five basis points to 0.835 percent. The 17 1/2 basis-point gap between yesterday’s high and low rate was the widest since April 5. The BOJ’s injection was done in response to excessive volatility, according to an official who asked not to be named due to the central bank’s policy. The Topix Index of shares plunged 6.9 percent, the most since the March 2011 record earthquake and nuclear disaster.

Selling from JGB investors has “overwhelmed the BOJ’s ability to purchase them,” according to Bass. “The BOJ is going to have to dramatically expand its JGB purchasing operation if it is going to be successful in holding back rates.”

Bass said in an interview with Bloomberg Television last month that a rise in JGB yields following the BOJ’s April pledge was a sign of stress in the market. He said in January he’s buying bearish options that are “way out of the money” to bet against Japan.

Not Enough

Japanese banks, which had been using their excess deposits to buy government bonds, have reduced their holdings as the central bank increases purchases. Lenders had 164 trillion yen of the securities in February, down from a record 171 trillion yen in March last year.

“Everyone that holds JGBs will likely act rationally and sell a portion of their JGBs to buy foreign bonds or domestic equities,” Bass said. “If holders sell a mere 5 percent of their holdings (50 trillion yen), then the BOJ’s new plan isn’t large enough.”

Bass, a former salesman for Bear Stearns Cos. and Legg Mason Inc., started Hayman in 2006 to focus on corporate turnarounds, restructurings and mortgages.

Bass has been skeptical about many of the measures governments have taken to address problems in the wake of the financial crisis. In October 2010 he said Japan’s economy might unravel in the next two to three years, and that its interest payments would exceed revenue. “Japan can’t fund itself internally,” Bass said. In March 2009 he said the rise in government borrowing could produce a “potential inflationary time bomb” that would grow with fiscal stimulus.

Price volatility for Japanese government bonds surged 2.6 percentage points this year to 3.69 percent as of May 21 based on a 60-day reading, the biggest advance among 26 sovereign-debt markets tracked by Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies.

GDP Expands

Japan’s debt-servicing costs will rise 100 billion yen for each 10 basis-point increase in yields, Finance Minister Taro Aso said May 16. Yields on Japanese government bonds of all maturities climbed to 0.72 percent on May 22, from 0.4 percent on April 4, the lowest since 2003, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data.

The nation’s debt-carrying costs will probably reach a record 23.8 trillion yen to 23.9 trillion yen in the fiscal year starting April 2014, up more than 7 percent from this fiscal year, the Ministry of Finance projected in March. This year’s costs made up 24 percent of the budget. In the U.S., total interest payments of $359 billion accounted for about 10.2 percent of budgetary outlays in the year that ended September, according to Treasury data.

Debt Burden

The outstanding debt of the world’s third-largest economy was 991.6 trillion yen at the end of March, a ministry report showed this month. It’s projected to reach 245 percent of gross domestic product this year, according to an International Monetary Fund estimate, the highest ratio in the world.

Japan’s economy expanded at an annualized 3.5 percent pace last quarter, the fastest rate in a year, a government report showed on May 16. Gross domestic product will probably grow 1.4 percent this year and 1.3 percent in 2014, according to median estimates in Bloomberg News surveys.

If the BOJ fails to spark economic growth or destabilizes the bond market, “real JGB yields will rise and increase future funding costs,” Tom Byrne and Matt Robinson, analysts at Moody’s Investors Service, wrote in a report last month. Considering the size of the nation’s debt, “there is little room for miscalculating the market.”

Kuroda said the BOJ will adjust its bond-buying program as needed. He said he’s not expecting yields to jump a lot and volatility in the bond market isn’t affecting Japan’s economy yet.

May 25, 2013 - 1:30pm

I already know who won...

With silver in the 22's, gold languishing in the 13's, miners flatlining, an epic 19 month beatdown of historical proportions, and troll nation descending like flies on sh*t to crow the Keynsian line... and rather than discouragement, a freaking FUNDRAISER breaks out?

There is such strength in this community, it is truly amazing. Truth will do that.

We won. All of us.

May 25, 2013 - 1:34pm

How will they spin this as Bearish!

In the the river with a silver bullet in hand.

check this out. Largest silver mine in the world...?????

Did I win? I guess I have silver in yes!!


القراع عصفور
May 25, 2013 - 1:35pm


and what a cute little T! thank you TF! just laughed myself to tears. only got 3 minutes in. OK, back to it if i can quit laughing!


May 25, 2013 - 1:36pm

this is killing me!

ahhhhh .... 

Spartacus Rex
May 25, 2013 - 1:42pm

Winners All Around TFMR

Pining's Attitude is TOPS!

May 25, 2013 - 1:50pm

this is fun!!

Smiling, getting a kick out of this video! 

Thanks for following through with this!

May 25, 2013 - 1:50pm


And I'm stuck in a conference without headphones. 

Howard Roark
May 25, 2013 - 1:52pm


To the winner!



p.s. - beautiful!!! fun to watch! 

congratulations to the donors as well!

Lamenting Laverne
May 25, 2013 - 2:00pm

I am just laughing out loud....

all the time.... ;-) Funny! Great assistant work LT#2!

El Gordo
May 25, 2013 - 2:13pm

Fantastic event

Great show, and congratulations to the winners.

القراع عصفور
May 25, 2013 - 2:13pm

oh well

PacMan Dying Sound Effect

congrats to the winners! thanks for the fun TF and LT! you both belong on TV!

May 25, 2013 - 2:18pm

I hope I won!

Something other than thurd.

(edit) I did! The excellent information and entertainment of TMFR!

Thank you for your time and efforts, Turd.

May 25, 2013 - 2:18pm

Well Done!

Great fun, like a good sporting event . . . and for a good cause.

I won a good time and a good feeling about all the posters and readers.

Thanks to all of you!

Chi-Town Deadhead
May 25, 2013 - 2:19pm

Awesome job TF & LT#2

Great job TF and LT#2's antics were awesome. That was a riot. Looking forward to fulfilling the bacon winners request. I think I might have to buy one myself to make sure it was worthwhile.

Have a great Memorial Day weekend everyone and Gold Dog have fun at the Indy 500.

Patriot Family
May 25, 2013 - 2:21pm

Loved it!  Lots Of Fun!

Loved it! Great job bringing Little T #2 into the picture. John W. won the Victorinox Swiss Army Knife and belt pouch we donated. Congrats John, I will wait for your contact info via TF so your identity isn't disclosed. To all - great way to step up and help out, regardless if you were donating prizes or buying tickets. I don't think we would have seen this on some of the other blogs I visit... you are genuinely nice people.

Chris - Patriot Family (Supply)

Iceberg Slim
May 25, 2013 - 2:22pm

$22 silver hat!

Looks like I won the eaten Turd hat...a "piece" of TFMR history if you will.

Was definitely crackin' up along with LT2 on this one haha!

one correction though, the name is Dan, not Don! lol

although it's a helluva prize and an honor to be bestowed with what will certainly be known as a legendary piece of history from the site, I may have to unfortunately decline delivery and let Turd keep is awfully tight at the apartment right now and i'm not sure how my girlfriend would feel about a half eaten hot sauce covered hat sitting in the living room! lol. unless someone else really wants it I am open to having Turd donate it to them instead, or make a swap I suppose (not necessary). just let me know!

overall this was a lot of fun and I'm just glad to have gotten a couple bucks over to Turd for keeping this site running for all of us and giving this community a home!

congrats to everyone else who won prizes and have a great weekend!

May 25, 2013 - 2:23pm

Wait a tick, didn't Gold Dog

Wait a tick, didn't Gold Dog put up an additional 25 sets of 5 90% silver 50 cent coins?

Looks like its time for another raffle!

May 25, 2013 - 2:25pm

Nice job TF & LT2

Congratulations to all the winners and thanks to all the prize givers. Remember, even if you didn't win a prize, we are all winners because the proceeds go to help keep TFMR up and running. That was the only prize I needed.

May 25, 2013 - 2:26pm

First winner !

YIPPIE YA YEAH ! First winner and a won a Turd hat ! Thanks Turd and keep the good work going !

May 25, 2013 - 2:31pm

I'm lucky, I'm lucky

Turd you made my day !!!!!

This got me thinking of that song "I'm lucky, I'm lucky,..." Joan Armatrading.

dc1 Pining 4 the Fjords
May 25, 2013 - 2:33pm

@ Pining 4 the Fjords re: I already know...

First, (LOL!!) so succinctly put, and well said!!!

Second, I agree completely!

May 25, 2013 - 2:41pm

I CANNOT WAIT... present my nuts to Hillary to be cracked!

Doggone, that was fun!

Gold Dog
May 25, 2013 - 2:42pm


I spotted that too.

As pointed out in the other thread, they will find their way into the Turdestan community a soon as I;

a) Recover from this weekend


b) Think of a good way to have a ball getting them gone!

LT2 is just great Turd!

Congratulations to all of the winners!



May 25, 2013 - 2:43pm

Well done LT#2 & Turd

Great fun and very well done.

Lamenting Laverne
May 25, 2013 - 2:43pm


How is that even possible!!!! I mean.... I was s'pose to sweep the board today..... I know, because I wrote so all by myself yesterday.... Several times.... Right here... It is true... You can go right back and see. 

But hey - THAT was one awesome super cool TV show, you guys put on there. I particularly enjoyed the midstream sneeze - Bless you girl.

Congratulations to all the winners! ;-))))

Longnosed Loser Laverne

May 25, 2013 - 2:45pm
May 25, 2013 - 2:53pm


...I won a prize (nice!) but like P4 said...everyone won today and the biggest prize for all of us overall may have been to watch the love between a father and daughter for 30 minutes.

Thanks to all and special thanks to G-Dog and TF (and LT#2) also. yes

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