The Ebb and Flow of Funds

360
Thu, May 23, 2013 - 4:08pm

I've been meaning to write about this for a couple of days and this is the first chance I've had to get it done.

What set me off was a headline I saw scroll by on ZeroHedge the other night. Some meathead from Deutsche Bank was claiming that "the supercycle move for commodities was over" or some such nonsense. This, of course, caught my eye because:

  1. I keep hearing that Deutsche Bank continues to teeter on the edge of bankruptcy/insolvency.
  2. Deutshce Bank is also a major bullion bank and several folks have reported that the April Beatdown was a desperate action, initiated to save a bullion bank from default.
  3. I think all the Elliott Wave stuff is bullshit and I particularly don't like the snake oil selling practitioners like Prechter.

At any rate, I couldn't get the thought out of my head that some might believe that this latest bull market in commodities was kaput. Clearly lots of people do think this though and, no doubt, that is partly the rationale behind all of the hedge fund gold selling.

Speaking of which, did you see this chart yesterday? Bloomberg put it out and it was picked up by nearly every gold/silver site. It shows in graphic detail what I have been trying to tell you for months. Namely, that the buildup of Spec short interest is at historic levels and this has led to a transference of "short liability risk" from The Cartel to the Specs.

Again, why are the Specs so bearish on gold? Well, one of the reasons is the overall crappy performance of commodities, in general. For a reversal in price that squeezes the shorts and resumes the bull trend in gold, one of the things we'll need is a reversal of this Spec flow of funds. This is something that TraderDan has been harping on for months. Personally I think that this is too narrow of a point of view but, for the purposes of this post, let's go with it.

The question lays out like this:

  • Gold is going down because commodities in general are going down
  • So gold won't likely go back up until commodities in general go back up
  • But if the "commodity supercycle" is over...
  • How can gold ever reverse? It will just keep going down, too. Right?

I know that many of you feel this way, having been misled by newsletter writers and the stooges in the mainstream financial press. So, I thought I'd take this argument head on by looking for a bottom in commodities or, specifically, the Continuous Commodity Index. Because, if:

  • Commodities bottom and reverse, then
  • The flow of Spec/Momo/HFT/HedgeFund/MoneyManager funds will reverse, too, and
  • Gold and silver will reverse and trade higher, not lower.

Let's start with a linear scale, 25-year chart for the CCI. Note that the current trend began in late 2001 and continues to this day with one exception...2008. Recall the extreme volatility and illiquidity of The Great Financial Crisis. Because of the unusual nature of that period, I believe that the move down and through the trendline was a simple "overshoot". Confirming this idea is the clear evidence that, once things settled down a bit in 2009, the index moved back above the trendline and continued higher. Again, though, look closely at that drop. It went all the way to a spike low of 322. However, the action centered for six months around the 350 level. Why is that important? More on that in a minute.

Next, let's take a closer look at this linear chart. I've tried to replicate the same red trendlines here as shown above. What do we see? Two things:

  1. The move down this week has seemingly broken the trendline again, just like 2008.
  2. The index looks to have considerable, horizontal support beginning near 500 and reaching all the way down to about 450.

OK, let's stop here and recap what we've found so far.

  • A definable trend has been in place for 11.5 years. (That's a long time.)
  • But this trend has given false signals before, especially during TGFC of 2008.
  • Just like 2008, the trend appears to be breaking again.
  • Considerable chart support looks to reside between 450 and 500 on the index.

Earlier this week, we used a logarithmic chart to analyze the 25-year trend in gold. The reason for using a "log" chart over a linear chart is that it affords the viewer a better comprehension of change over time when the change in question is substantial. Therefore, I thought that next it would be helpful to review a 25-year logarithmic chart for the CCI. Hmmmm. What do we see here?

Notice that I've drawn two trendlines. One connects the beginning of the move in late 2001 with the 322 low of 12/08 and the other connects the beginning with what, to me, is a more accurate low of 341 in 03/09. Follow those lines along to present day and what do you see? Like the linear chart, support appears to be between 450 and 500! As Mel Allen would say: "How about that?!?"

But wait, there's more. If you continue reading, you'll not only get this evidence, but we'll also throw in some Fibonacci numbers! All at one, low price!

So, let's look at some Fibonacci numbers. First, for reference, here's another chart, this time with the actual highs and lows written on it and no trendlines.

Now let's break out the calculator and do some math.

  • The move began at 184 and topped at 615 in July of 2008. That's 431 points. The correction that followed bottomed at 322 but I've described that above as an "overshoot" caused by TGFC of 2008. The true bottom was dug out over a period of about six months and it was centered right around 350. So, the move UP was 431 points and a Fibonacci 61.8% correction would be a 266 point drop. Drumroll, please...615 - 266 = 349. Hmmm. Isn't that interesting?

Now let's look at current day. Recall that above, I drew all sorts of lines on all types of charts and everything seemed to point to support and a bottom for the CCI, somewhere between 450 and 500.

  • If we use 349 as the low for the first correction and mark the second high as 691 in April of 2011, that's a 342 point rally. If we are currently experiencing another 61.8% retracement, we should expect a bottom near 480. Why? 342 x 61.8% = 211 and 691 - 211 = 480.
  • If we use 184 as the low that marked the beginning of the bull market in 2001 and 691 from April of 2011 as the latest top, we get an overall move of 507 points. If on this broad sense, we were to look for a Fibonacci retracement, we don't need to start at 61.8%. Instead, we need to look at the Fibo number preceding it which is 38.2%. If we use that Fibo level, what do we get? 507 x 38.2% = 194 and 691 - 194 = 497.
  • So the linear and log charts show support between 450 and 500 and the Fibos tell us to expect a bottom between 480 and 497. Works for me!

OK. Right now you're probably completely numb and wondering what the heck was the point of all this. I understand how you feel so allow me to sum up:

  1. The goon from DB truly is a DB and he is either hopelessly wrong or intentionally deceiving everyone in the hopes of adding fuel to the commodity liquidation fire.
  2. I believe that the bull market in real assets that began in 2001 continues unabated.
  3. This current correction likely has a little ways farther to go, however. Perhaps a much as 10% more, taking the CCI down under 500 before finding The Bottom.
  4. Once a clear bottom is found, the Flow of Funds from Specs will reverse and all "commodities", including gold and silver, will trend higher into the next short-term top, whenever that happens.

Finally, you and I both know that gold and silver specifically have been manipulated lower for a number of reasons and will soon move higher again based upon their own fundamentals and not the whims of the Specs. A short squeeze or LBMA/Comex default brought about by physical demand will move prices higher regardless of how soybeans and crude oil are trading. But the point of this exercise was to address the "traditionalist" view of the commodity markets and bring that view into line with where all of us in Turdville see things headed. I hope I've been able to accomplish just that.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  360 Comments

Bugzy
May 25, 2013 - 9:21pm

Couldn't resist

Is English your first language Mad5Hatter?

SilverSurfers
May 25, 2013 - 11:05pm

1st

language was Calculus in written form, and plots in graphic form, kind of like russians, parusski with allot of D T X Y Zs tongue twisters, but have allot a problem with plural verb forms in english, all them damn silly Ss, yet never been in a sparkling parade, but have that particular writing impediment. LMAO!! Math is the language of Engineers, Scientist, Chemists, and Physicists. How did you know? In the vid, Grant KISS it without function [limit], but ok, for the folks, now believing that the reason no one has taken them down, is the lack of heavy patent experience putting it together and heavy engineering design experience for systems comprehension, by gold heavies to personally connect the dots, sure they have Legal, Politics, Bullion, Business, Banking, Finance, type skills, and they are all nice civil people, but lack the key skills and makeup necessary, to put it all together and press it hard, and the organization of complex models for easy provable cases, nor the military for cost-effectiveness, and thus many 5 hatter guys out there barking, in the gold space, but none putting it together, lacking what may be essential skills and psychological statistical anomaly of a grandiose alpha werewolf to press it and then go for it and press the case super hard to victory 20 hours a day, seven days, lacking cross dimensional skills and psychological makeup for the take down of all time. Hate to be a braggart, (LOL) but turd has a diamond in the rough, literally, with sharp faceted serrated teeth good for chewing meat.

Spartacus Rex ancientmoney
May 26, 2013 - 12:16am

@ ancientmoney / Silver COT’s & Jolly Pirates Marauding

Re: “BTW, you're not related to T. Rex, are you?” Depends on which one are you referring to. If you meant the dinosaur, I pretty much feel like it after the clusterf* on Wed. Mother Nature gusted out of nowhere, and had a girder truss nearly rip my arm right out of the socket. But I guess that is why the Good Lord created cognac, comedians, caring grandchildren, and people like TF whose site is full of good people with commonsense and faith. All of which miraculously makes life a whole lot more bearable, and definitely worth living and to be grateful for, in spite of all of the lying, thieving bastards. May the Good Lord bless you and yours, and keep on Stackin'. :)


May 26, 2013 - 2:44am

@Icarus

Kudos, very well said. Thanks for sharing that.

AlexCojones
May 26, 2013 - 2:58am
SilverSurfers
May 26, 2013 - 7:00am

Profile

hints but B Murphy said it first, ONE STRANGE CAT.

politics, bullion, Military, Legal, Engineering 5 hatter.

Legal Experience, lone wolf in garage for 30 years, without secretary taking on 100 man law firm, and could not afford to waste time playing old shark games, had to go for throat and shut them down fast. Never made it to trial, defendants always throwing in towels from big bangs, actual experience.

Engineering experience, an actual designer, designed a disk drive by myself, show system problem solving, actual experience.

Patent Experience, top level scientific invention, best in the country, had to reduce complex to simplicity so bus drivers and judges would get it, actual experience.

Psychological statistical anomaly, grandiose werewolf capable of being ruthless and vicious and cold and calculating and sweet and compassionate, the three faces of eve, cerberus teeth, retired in sleeping bag.

Computer tools, neutral net burned in using 250 macro based word processor, and can word process at lighting speed necessary for taking down large large firms.

Political US problems and solutions with comprehensive view and base understand of human mental motivations. US Justice incompetent with political hands off in politically leftist totalitarianism, keep campaign money from wall street flowing, fascist rule, the US republic be damned, bias led by socialist habitual campaigner. Needs help.

Military science allows for cost effective war, sneak attacks, and misdirections, with take charge mentality, leaders, assume command, plans, leads, and executes, self starter, only one of 5 siblings graduated from high school, emulated war actual experience. Secret clearance and legal dodge experience to code messages from prying eyes.

Bullion, yeah I get it, only one who fingered china buys, and understand present modes of manipulations, where most have no clue, understand basics of bullion flows and means of manipulations.

Right skills at the right time freedom v TBTF TBTJ greedster. Revolutionary freedoms must be restored, reactionary.

Defiant, no matter who, puts life on the line, without hesitation. Federalies affraid having skills to bomb the screws out of them, must to it civilly in courts, for all to see, the southern freedom cry will rise again.

Morality, incorruptible by earthy money, god fearing, seeking freedom and justice for all, and personally.

Patriotic, trying to save nation and self from pending doom, driven. Full libetartian-Greens 2020 possible change, need to teach and MOPE the people.

Driven, on a mission to stop personal enslavement by destroying FRN the means the totalitarians use to enslave people, capable of sustained 20 hours/day seven days.

Light Speed mental associations, 5 hats in one skull, plus burned in computer neutral net for prolific data generation, thinking outside the box, always, design creativity applied to other fields, in light speed of neutral transmissions.

Possibly unique mental profile in country. Diamond in rough. Shrinks had a field day, trying to dope me up, did not work. Treasury, FBI, sheriffs, cops, white coats, and come a knocking in body armor with assault rifles drawn, no biggie, started recruitment right there, to take em down.

3 18 2009, retired from working for a living, on a mission, did the data dump for all to see in public blog, gave up 250K/year started playing emulated war games, wife was thrilled, tickled pink. 4 29 2013 figured out how to take down the mob boss of the wallstreet greedsters fascistly controlling US government totally enslaving the people. Turdville info rush key to lighting off light bulb. This shit stops right now, cant wait for bullion banks to be over ran.

SilverSurfers
May 26, 2013 - 7:08am

Pump it up

The Pump Machine, Barry Bonds & The Gold Cartel

Posted by Derrick Michael Reid on Wednesday, March 18, 2009 1:37:00 AM The Pump Machine

An American Hero? Barry Bonds pumped it up on steroids, got the cheers from the adoring fans for years. Now, he is in disgrace facing perjury charges, because he lied about it, now having a suspect record with an asterisk. There are many others as well, who rode the pump machine, lied about it, to the cheers of the adoring crowds, but later fell from grace in disgrace. Canadian sprinter Ben Johnson, and American track and field superstar Marion Jones who also lied about it, are a couple of other stand outs, but there are a countless number of them. The crowds wildly cheered, and looked the other way, as Barry doubled in size his weight, and the rumors and whispers circulated in the underground press, by those who were really in the know, but those rumors and whispers were ignored by the adoring crowds and cheer leaders getting vicariously rich off of the fraud. The roaring cheer leading culture would not stand for it as the hue-and-cry is JUST WIN BABY! Its sick for sure, but this culture of cheat and lie on the pump machine transcends many other areas of our lives as well. Of course, there are many deserving of the rich laurels, but who are denied the same by those who lie while on the pump machine.

Today, on planet wall street, the cry is just win baby, such as, CNBC's James Cramer rants to just win baby, screeching for a Fed rate cut as the pump machine of choice to pump up the big boards on the DOW. Bill Gross, manager of PIMCO, the world largest Bond trader, has also called for short term rate cuts, as part of the financial pump machine. The Plunge Protection Machine (PPT) is one of the financial cheer leaders that is out in force, as the DOW muscles expand unnaturally so. Any time, the FEDs are more than willing to inject funds, cut rates, and authorize the hiding of losses, to keep the pump machine going. But you know, here and there are the soft rumors, the whispers from the underground, from such organizations like GATA trying to spread the word of the pump machines in the financial world, that is hurting honest money folks with gold and silver, their only store of real value, to protect themselves form the soup lines in the years ahead. And here to, those honest folks are also big losers, not getting their full measure of rich reward for holding on dearly to real gold and silver coins and bars, as the price of their metal is capped, smacked down, and limited in prices, unnaturally so, not according to the free market forces, but by the unlimited use of the pump machine using bank gold swaps and sales, and, naked short positions, as they hide it and lie about it. There is a difference, though, between sports and markets, in sports, if you get caught, you loose your fame and your laurels and may end up in jail for lying about it, in the financial market, they don’t loose anything, as the FEDs can pump pump pump in perpetuity under governmental immunity, as the king can do no wrong, in limiting the value of real money gold and silver while inflating the financial markets, while they lie about doing it, and try to hush up those rumors and whispers of truth, while addicted to the pump machine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EcjWd-O4jI



English teacher at trudville can piss away their time editing that one, hatter has better things to do with time, like save the world, for starters.

SilverSurfers
May 26, 2013 - 7:39am

Profile II

Federalies afraid, hatter know bombs and rockets and defiant, best play is civilly in court to teach and mope the folks for lasting political changes, southern freedom rising.

Switch from engineering to litigation when could not raise VC for Redesign.

Switch from Litigation to patent prosecution when could no longer stomach being with sharks preying on society with that licensed dispute monopoly.

Calculating from early on, at 17yo, planned UC Berkeley engineering BS in 3 years, did so in 2 years, cost effectively, jr college, st college, University, for cost effective bang per buck, Cypress, Cerritos, Long Beach State, UC Berkeley, continued, WSU Law at night, and USC engineering graduate work. Twice Berkeley tried to throw me out, English skills and way too fast, but argued success shows english competence, and 2x engineering courses completed so what more do you want, plus had tons of job offers, and won, those administration fools, passing and taking 2x required labs and engineering courses, they had no chance, but kept up US history studies though, a secret love, but sibling rivalry and little food on the table, hardens the soul, and is a MF, only 1 of 5 siblings to even graduate from high school, got out early of course, and two years later, the dreamy full back state final star was selling me my shampoo, at the local drug store, for an absolute kicker, lol.

On one day, Simulated Electronic circuits regarding disk head technology in morning, afternoon at Anaheim saw the Rolling Stones, when the whip came down, and at night in law school, studying constitutional law by a bunch of totalitarians, go figure, for the hat trick, the daily triple, or was it all, just my imagination running away with me?

Video unavailable
The Rolling Stones- Miss You
Video unavailable
The Rolling Stones - Paint It Black
rolling stones - under my thumb
daveyboy
May 26, 2013 - 8:07am

I thought you guys might be

I thought you guys might be interested in listening to this, both are bullish longer term, but 2 different perspectives.

Not saying I agree with either of them, but they offer some interesting points.

DEBATE: SILVER 100% MANIPULATED EVERY DAY - Bix Weir vs Don Harrold
BIGNASTY
May 26, 2013 - 10:23am

Mainstreet Fire.........................

Is it just my perception or are we experiencing an amazing number of STELLAR posts this weekend? Turd, Margarita, Lamenting, Icarus, and others have hit it out of the park. Thanks folks, great info in an easy to follow style! The biggest thanks to Turd for providing us a great meeting place. FEED THE TURD!

Howard Roark
May 26, 2013 - 12:10pm

@Sting by Icarus

Excellent consideration. I´m understanding it as a portuguese, a european. On this side of the Atlantic it´s more difficult to x-ray the situation with such clarity. We have too much mirrors and smoke: institutions on national and european level and both with they own clout. But the problems are here too and maybe we get to the end faster and with no sufficient knowledge and debate.

Congratulations Icarus.

Salut to All,

HR

SilverSurfers
May 26, 2013 - 8:28pm

@ Huge Vile

great posts are indeed great, and much appreciated by nearly all, nearly, but dont you think in the scheme of big things, of which everyone really complains, and that concerns most, they dont really solve much, excepting providing some comradery and supporting mutual comfort and mutual back slapping, that misery loves company? Just asking.

Price manipulation produces a lack of price discovery. A lack of price discover is irreparable harm and causes some civil tort monetary damage, to any one who holds an AGE or ASE, or who holds any amount of precious bullion specie, or in the precious metals trade who transacts any buys, sells, serves the public, publication, retail, wholesale, and is undue influence upon the US government agency, the US mint, and when acting with another, is not only an actionable civil tort and RICO claim, but specifically, a RICO crime against the US Government agency US Mint offering jail time to the offenders of such price manipulation. Just saying.

Speaking Plainly: I am offering to take down the manipulator within 6mo and need 6m$ in funding to do so, to enjoin and terminate their habitual price manipulations, and hand US Justice a criminal case on a silver platter, and if anyone would like to PM with a name(s) by email address of anyone interested in funding such with a multiple return, it would be much appreciated, as I tend to seek solutions, rather than back slaps. Just asking.

murphy
May 26, 2013 - 9:43pm

off topic for pleasure reading

Came across this article from the Herald News which I had never seen or read. Some very interesting columnists and writings. https://www.heraldnews.com/opinions/columnists

I particularly liked this one

Goodbye, Democracy: It Was Nice Working With You

I am a reporter for a midsized daily newspaper in Massachusetts. Last night, I covered the yearly election in a nearby town of about 15,000 people.

It's a nice town, formerly a farm community. Sixty years ago, the kids used to drop out of high school to work on Daddy's dairy farm. Nowadays, a lot of the kids go to college.

It's a patriotic place. A woman born here died in the Sept. 11 attack. People have sons in Iraq, in the Army. There is almost no rental property. Some of the few remaining farmers have gone organic.

In the morning, you can hear the birds sing. At night, you hear nothing.

There's a homemade sign in the police station noting that they're backed up on firearm permits. Patriots In their dozens are applying for gun permits, eager to protect their constitutional rights.

I stopped in a convenience store for a cup of coffee before I went over to town hall to wait for the election results. You can buy the New York papers in that convenience store. People here stay informed.

The town hall is red brick with white wooden trim, as it should be in a New England town. On the first floor, offices sprout off a long hallway. Assessor's office. Board of Registrars. Town clerk.

Five plaques hang on the walls of the hallway. One lists town residents who served in the Civil War. There are other plaques for World War I, World War II, Korea and Vietnam. The town has several active veterans associations, including a Veterans of Foreign Wars post with a busy bar.

On Tuesday, April 9, a little over 1,000 people went to the polls here and voted in the town election. That's about 14 percent of the town's registered voters. In these New England towns, the city council is called the Board of Selectmen. The chairman of that board ran unopposed, as did candidates for seats on five other boards.

There were four other boards with vacancies for which there were no candidates. All seats will be filled by write-in candidates. There was a race at School Committee, three candidates competing for two seats, and a race for the board that governs the public library — again, three candidates for two seats.

And this is American democracy, just as much as debates over gun laws, abortion and same-sex marriage. If you take up your gun and go out to fight in the revolution, if you are willing to die for your constitutional rights, this is what you will be defending.

The evil government may well have a plan to enslave you, to take your AR-15 and your Bible. We may be on the way to the New World Order, and your kids may indeed be putting condoms on bananas over at the high school.

But no one put his/her name forward to run for the three-year term on the Planning Board, not where I was working Tuesday night.

It's not a very big town, but it has a $25,000,000 annual budget. About $15,000,000 of that goes to the schools.

If you are one of those people who likes to talk about government "confiscating your money," then this is one of the places where the confiscated dollars are spent, apportioned by people who are voted for by almost no one.

I sat in the town clerk's office until they gave me a computer printout of the election results, then I drove 11 miles back to the newspaper office and wrote my story.

And while I did this, people were posting quip-ish things on my Facebook page, things about how much the Obamas spend on vacations, about how many Americans are killed by knives every year versus how many people are killed by hammers and about "the Founders."

The national debate continues in one long scream, in snide little jokes and funny, doctored pictures posted on Facebook.

But democracy is drying up like a stream in a hot summer, and the shallow places are going dry first.

And we forget that small streams feed the big rivers.

To find out more about Marc Munroe Dion and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit www.creators.com.

COPYRIGHT 2013 BY CREATORS.COM

https://www.creators.com/opinion/marc-dion/goodbye-democracy-it-was-nice...

SilverSurfers
May 26, 2013 - 11:08pm
BIGNASTY SilverSurfers
May 26, 2013 - 11:12pm

@psychoticnutter............

I gain knowledge here and appreciate other sharing their insights. If you have a six million dollar plan I'd bet the hedgies would love to take down the Bankster scum and would find the price tag acceptable. I'm afraid a pauper such as myself would not have much to offer. Good luck!

Lamenting Laverne
May 27, 2013 - 12:00am

@ Margaritatime

"I cannot emphasize enough; there are more assets than cash. Steep drops can occur from traders liquidating positions [cash] to cover margin calls. This can cause a chain reaction. While there are numerous people cheerleading for a collapse of the Yen. Be careful what you wish for, that is all I have to say."

Can you carve this out in neon for me, please?

What I understand from what you are saying, is that because most trading is only done in paper with no real relationship to finite items in the physical world, and because that trading is almost exclusively done in margin accounts, where only 5% or so of the traded amount (assets) is put up or covered by already existing cash from own pocket (cash) - a trade that goes against you badly, will potentially accomplish 95% worth of assets to hit the market disorderly, every time the price has moved only 5% against you (account wipe out), if you do not have excess cash elsewhere to deposit on the margin call.

And that anything below a 5% price move against you, will result roughly 20% of worth of assets to hit the market, for every 1% price move that cannot be covered by excess cash from elsewhere.

Is that what you are referring to with the quote in bold?

Learning only recently what the margin requirements for Forex trading are, and seeing that spike in the USD/Yen cross from 92,86 to 99,3 in three days (4-8. April), with a first day move of approx. 3,8% up after downward momentum the previous 17 days, sure did not bring about a warm and fuzzy feeling in the solar. I was expecting opaque derivatives to blow up - it looks like margin accounts are quite enough.

With the kind of moves we have seen lately, including the 7ish% one day drop in the Nikkei, is there anyway the fuse to a chain reaction has not been lit already? Or do you know that it has not been lit yet, because if/when it is, it will be all over in one or two days, because of automated liquidations with no time for issuing margin calls, until the circuit breakers kick in - assuming they actually work at the time?

SilverSurfers
May 27, 2013 - 12:07am

Noticing

I am posting all the names by time stamp email, who got it, and when, so they cant later dodge it. The attack plan IS viable, IS practically fool proof, and is being broadcast.

Bullion Space: T Ferguson 2ed Target Package Posted segmented TF direct by email; J Embry 2ed Target Package through Dark Mole; Sinclair Teaser; Livermore Teaser; Rickards Teaser; Kirby Teaser; Russell Teaser; Pento Teaser, Doctor Teaser; Murphy Teaser; Powell Teaser; Turk Teaser; Greyerz Teaser; Hathaway Teaser; Eveillard Teaser; Leeb Teaser; Sprott Teaser; Rule Teaser; Faber Teaser; Grandich Teaser, Political Space: Ron Paul Congressman Teaser; Paul Criag Roberts Teaser; D Issa Congressman Teaser; J Campbell Congressman Teaser, GOP Teaser; PastorLindsey; Schiff Teaser; Neveller; Rogers; Williams, and, News Space: Hunter Teaser; King Teaser; Keiser Teaser; Celente Teaser; Durban Teaser; Barnes Teaser; Waltzek Teaser; Grant Teaser; OReilly Teaser; Daughty Teaser; Bonner Teaser; Kristol Teaser; Krauthammer Teaser; Guild Teaser.

===========Teaser========================== Sir, I can take down XXManipulator, and end this nonsense.
Please carefully consider the following 3 cites as you wish.
The country needs saving, and we all must do our duties.
Most Respectfully, Derrick Michael Reid BS JD
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/users/silversurfers
https://forum.astroempires.com/viewtopic.php?f=99&t=111935
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4710/broader-perspective?page=10 ===========================================

As Turd is the star sought, he can authorize release of the 200 page target package.

Caveat, its coded, and spans 5 disciplines, and is a difficult read.

Ex Secret Security Clearance kicking in big time, so, I purposely wrote the plan out in code, and as expected, most if anyone did not got it, I have the decode cheat sheet, of course.

Turd has 2nd ed 200 single line space draft including attack plan

California esq the same. J Embry Sprott the same.

To understand it all completely, one needs 20 years of each, Litigation, Military, Engineering, Bullion, Politics expertise, which I do.

The legal and Engineering Military parts would be most difficult for you, the bullion and political parts easy for you.

Trud would be plaintiff in Freedom v TBTF TBTJ Greedster

California Esq would be Rear Guard Local Counsel.

So yes, it would be most difficult to get VC, which is not one of my worlds, but thats life, and we do our duty as best we can. So the attack plan, fool proof, is done, and now trying to get VC. Sprott would have access to all such expertise, and hence, through a california mole, I am keeping them informed, hoping they are not as stupid as most.

But what can I do?

If turd or california Esq consent, I would send you 2ed/3rd edition, but look out its heavy legal stuff. So there ya go. Can you help?

===

Proposed

Submitted by Mad5Hatter on May 25, 2013 - 5:50am. Hat Tip! 0 Lecture for team Turd, as follows:

Turd commander in chief

Hatter Lecturer with robust Q and A

Team of fancy Pants, bullion heavies to fund attack plan

Head Knocker, Rear Guard, Local Counsel

Arctic Goalie, a precision torpedo

Andy Dandy, a precision torpedo

Hindsight Capitalist, a precision torpedo

Invitees: King James, Sugar Cane, Grant Deed, back up surprise sluggers.

Anywhere Anytime, Personal Notes Only, work product, not to be distributed to anyone, but kept as personal notes only. Torpedoes and Invitees and Head Knocker can attend by visual and audio telecomm. Hatter needs a chalk board, or easy erase ink board, as lecture will be heavy in diagrams for rapid perceptions.

====
But so far, zippo, in the Pussy World of Gold.

Madonna - Like A Prayer (Official Music Video)
Lumpy
May 27, 2013 - 12:39am

On and on it goes.

Just the fact that there are so many people here willing to share their insight, their education, their compassion and companionship with the rest of us means a lot.

Many of us don't understand the markets, or the charts, or the reports.

What matters is...............Us.

We matter.

We want the best for people we don't know. Our fellow Americans.

We don't want to see suffering of our fellow Americans due to a financial crisis, or any other crisis.

We just want people to get it.

We want people to be safe. They want us to be safe in their paper.

I don't want to see a financial collapse. I really don't. I don't want to witness the suffering of millions. I don't want to see the suffering of millions of Americans.

I just want the lie to end, but on and on it goes.

surfeitndearth
May 27, 2013 - 12:41am

@ Icarus

+1000 Superb! Thank you.

The Watchman
May 27, 2013 - 1:17am

@Lumpy

1,000 Hat Tips-

SilverSurfers
May 27, 2013 - 11:02am

Believe

it or not, Patent Law, Engineering Design, Military Science and Anamolous Psychology are key in taking down the manipulator. Thats the fact jack.

Razzle-Dazzle at Graduation - Stripes (8/8) Movie CLIP (1981) HD
SilverSurfers
May 27, 2013 - 1:55pm

Funny

Story. Been listening to TFMR music videos using those 3$ headphones coped from an international flight a decade ago, trust me, the airlines wont miss them, but the headphones were falling apart, and black tape strain relief kludge just was not holding up, and after 6 months of use, those headphones needed replaced aspa, and so, got in car to radio shack at the local mall, but closed until 10am, it being then 9am, and being such an impatient rat bastard, when it comes to public stuff, only when absolutely necessary, and so, went over to Macy, opened at 9am, and located headphones for sale, but they were enclosed in a vending machine, and so hatter pulled out the c note, and asked the sales person for help, she informing hatter that the machine dont take currency, only credit cards, and hatter said the last thing hatter wants is big brother and those totalitarian pigs eyeballing hatter, and hatter asked for a manager, but a supervisor came, and at the top of lungs, going mega vocal on macys first floor so all could hear, hatter is nice that way, said this is legal tender and the headphones in macys is offered for sale, and hatter accepts the deal, as deal is a deal, the supervision comes back with, but that aint macys vending machine, hatter comes back, yeah, but macys signed and contract with the vending machine operators and hence privity of contract, and macys has its name on the vending machine located in a macys store, trust me, its macys vending machine, and hatter wants to buy those headphones, now, macys does not want to be sued for 250k, which would be given to charity, the wife having huge deep pockets, plus macys committing a federal crime, the supervisors then calls the manager, the supervisor in over his head, with hatter going right to the top, like now, and the manager hears the song and dance, and she said that, that c note can be exchanged for a gift card and then the card can be used in vending machine, and she was then given the paper tender and she returned with an exact amount gift card and change, and so hatter got the headphones, like now, and hatter walks out of macy at 9:15am, after hatter and the manager high fived, hatter saying, we are Americans and we Can Do, and always be flexible and look for the work around, free advice, hatter is nice that way, at the top of his lungs so all can hear. Poor things. LMAO!! And having wet your whistles, do ya want to hear about hatter depositing paper cash in a WF acct, and the teller saying there would be a fee, the story ending with coppers drawing, but no jail time? LMAO! When in public, its always hammer time.

Video unavailable
Cry Me A River
May 27, 2013 - 2:52pm
Swift Boat Vet margaritatime
May 27, 2013 - 3:12pm

To the 50 on Memorial Day

To the 50 of Swift Boat Squadron 1 who are "Still on Patrol".

Salute brothers.

Swifty

SilverSurfers
May 27, 2013 - 4:33pm

She

head is a madusa, and someone should arrange a date between the star and the madusa, because, at least one thinks the gig is simply irresistible, being addicted to love. All have a great vacation while crimex slow boats going into china open, hope london wings like a pendulum do.

Robert Palmer - Simply Irresistible
Robert Palmer - Addicted To Love
Video unavailable

Hatter wont let anyone down, swear to GOD.

margaritatime
May 27, 2013 - 8:20pm

@Lamenting Laverne

Sorry I was out for the weekend soaking up some outdoors and sun ;)

You pretty much answered the question.. A margin is essentially a form of collateral (formerly known as performance bonds). Let's say for sake of awesome round numbers a scenario goes like this;

You buy 100K of paper positions tomorrow from Turd Brokerage, and there is a 50% margin in place - thus you will need 50K in payment for those turd positions. Your equity in the margin account is now $50K (50k+50k=100k) and essentially you receive a loan from the Turd Brokerage for $50K. A few days later the total value of your paper positions falls to $70K. Your loan from the firm is still 50K, but your equity has dropped to $20K. The firm's margin requirement may be, say 20%, meaning that your equity cannot fall below ($70K*20%=$14K) - you are still within the margin requirement. A few days later your paper takes a hit and is now valued at $60K, you now have 10K in equity (60K value - 50K loan = 10K equity), but the maintenance margin is 20% (60k*20% = $12K).. You will now have a margin call for $2K, often times a firm will liquidate your securities to cover the margin call (sometimes they do not even tell you or give you a choice), or you are required to deposit cash to meet the margin call. Either way, when this scenario plays out across many accounts it means there are more assets than cash at hand. In theory it causes a race to cash. It becomes a tautology, or waterfall effect.

Whether or not we realize it, many times when stocks take a kick in the teeth, pm prices will concurrently fall with them. Part of the reason for this is people liquidating positions to cover margin calls. I think if everyone knew just how much leveraging that actually goes on - they would be shaking their heads in disbelief. Leveraging in the realms of 100-200x without a anything to back it up. That is why there are more assets than cash. That is why it is a mathematical certainty we will see a derivative bomb that will make the mortgage crisis look like child's play. The actual scope in economics is dumbfounding. The question is; 1. What will light the fuse, and 2. What event will they blame it on. Lastly of course; do I have enough Patron in storage to weather the crisis.

¤
May 27, 2013 - 8:34pm

margaritatime

Hi....1.) From what I've read I think we possibly share some of the same sentiment....it'll be Japan and the yen and the Japanese 10 year bond imploding.

They'll lay the blame or cause at Japans doorstep. L_L has written about this scenario also in that Japan (at the Fed's behalf) is somewhat acting on our behalf and is the proverbial guinea pig.

It's not hard to envision how that might be so given the US/Japan security agreement 'over there' and the temperature of the increasingly threats and potential hostilities underway.

War would negate many debt/derivative obligation bombshells if you think about it that way.

2.) Never a bad idea to stock on Patron and other medicinal goodies...just because :-)

margaritatime
May 27, 2013 - 8:43pm

@DPH

I think there are a great many people thinking the fuse will will be lit in economics and not a wag-the-dog-war scenario. Currency swaps are not my strong point, but a few a my peers are attempting to explain it.. It is very possible. On that notion though, the USD infrastructure is way too powerful to collapse. They will simply repackage the same ol' with a new label and call it something new - like the new $100 bill - which will be touted to be backed (as the face of the bill indicates) in a hybrid of collateral. I'm afraid I don't buy the theory that we are headed to Mad Max and the USD will not collapse. Sorry - I just don't buy that crap.

Patron is not medicinal [to me], it is like air. I will die without it. If one could own derivatives in Patron I would be leveraged 200:1 ;)

murphy
May 27, 2013 - 10:18pm

Margarita

Forget about the Patron. If you want to drink some fine stuff straight up try Cava de Oro extra anejo. They just started selling it in the US recently. I bought some online from a place in San Diego. It is drop dead and die for. Flavors of honey and aged in cherry barrels I believe.

margaritatime
May 28, 2013 - 12:15am

@Murphy

oh my... life is too short for cheap tequila ;) that sounds like amazing stuff!

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