The Ebb and Flow of Funds

Thu, May 23, 2013 - 4:08pm

I've been meaning to write about this for a couple of days and this is the first chance I've had to get it done.

What set me off was a headline I saw scroll by on ZeroHedge the other night. Some meathead from Deutsche Bank was claiming that "the supercycle move for commodities was over" or some such nonsense. This, of course, caught my eye because:

  1. I keep hearing that Deutsche Bank continues to teeter on the edge of bankruptcy/insolvency.
  2. Deutshce Bank is also a major bullion bank and several folks have reported that the April Beatdown was a desperate action, initiated to save a bullion bank from default.
  3. I think all the Elliott Wave stuff is bullshit and I particularly don't like the snake oil selling practitioners like Prechter.

At any rate, I couldn't get the thought out of my head that some might believe that this latest bull market in commodities was kaput. Clearly lots of people do think this though and, no doubt, that is partly the rationale behind all of the hedge fund gold selling.

Speaking of which, did you see this chart yesterday? Bloomberg put it out and it was picked up by nearly every gold/silver site. It shows in graphic detail what I have been trying to tell you for months. Namely, that the buildup of Spec short interest is at historic levels and this has led to a transference of "short liability risk" from The Cartel to the Specs.

Again, why are the Specs so bearish on gold? Well, one of the reasons is the overall crappy performance of commodities, in general. For a reversal in price that squeezes the shorts and resumes the bull trend in gold, one of the things we'll need is a reversal of this Spec flow of funds. This is something that TraderDan has been harping on for months. Personally I think that this is too narrow of a point of view but, for the purposes of this post, let's go with it.

The question lays out like this:

  • Gold is going down because commodities in general are going down
  • So gold won't likely go back up until commodities in general go back up
  • But if the "commodity supercycle" is over...
  • How can gold ever reverse? It will just keep going down, too. Right?

I know that many of you feel this way, having been misled by newsletter writers and the stooges in the mainstream financial press. So, I thought I'd take this argument head on by looking for a bottom in commodities or, specifically, the Continuous Commodity Index. Because, if:

  • Commodities bottom and reverse, then
  • The flow of Spec/Momo/HFT/HedgeFund/MoneyManager funds will reverse, too, and
  • Gold and silver will reverse and trade higher, not lower.

Let's start with a linear scale, 25-year chart for the CCI. Note that the current trend began in late 2001 and continues to this day with one exception...2008. Recall the extreme volatility and illiquidity of The Great Financial Crisis. Because of the unusual nature of that period, I believe that the move down and through the trendline was a simple "overshoot". Confirming this idea is the clear evidence that, once things settled down a bit in 2009, the index moved back above the trendline and continued higher. Again, though, look closely at that drop. It went all the way to a spike low of 322. However, the action centered for six months around the 350 level. Why is that important? More on that in a minute.

Next, let's take a closer look at this linear chart. I've tried to replicate the same red trendlines here as shown above. What do we see? Two things:

  1. The move down this week has seemingly broken the trendline again, just like 2008.
  2. The index looks to have considerable, horizontal support beginning near 500 and reaching all the way down to about 450.

OK, let's stop here and recap what we've found so far.

  • A definable trend has been in place for 11.5 years. (That's a long time.)
  • But this trend has given false signals before, especially during TGFC of 2008.
  • Just like 2008, the trend appears to be breaking again.
  • Considerable chart support looks to reside between 450 and 500 on the index.

Earlier this week, we used a logarithmic chart to analyze the 25-year trend in gold. The reason for using a "log" chart over a linear chart is that it affords the viewer a better comprehension of change over time when the change in question is substantial. Therefore, I thought that next it would be helpful to review a 25-year logarithmic chart for the CCI. Hmmmm. What do we see here?

Notice that I've drawn two trendlines. One connects the beginning of the move in late 2001 with the 322 low of 12/08 and the other connects the beginning with what, to me, is a more accurate low of 341 in 03/09. Follow those lines along to present day and what do you see? Like the linear chart, support appears to be between 450 and 500! As Mel Allen would say: "How about that?!?"

But wait, there's more. If you continue reading, you'll not only get this evidence, but we'll also throw in some Fibonacci numbers! All at one, low price!

So, let's look at some Fibonacci numbers. First, for reference, here's another chart, this time with the actual highs and lows written on it and no trendlines.

Now let's break out the calculator and do some math.

  • The move began at 184 and topped at 615 in July of 2008. That's 431 points. The correction that followed bottomed at 322 but I've described that above as an "overshoot" caused by TGFC of 2008. The true bottom was dug out over a period of about six months and it was centered right around 350. So, the move UP was 431 points and a Fibonacci 61.8% correction would be a 266 point drop. Drumroll, please...615 - 266 = 349. Hmmm. Isn't that interesting?

Now let's look at current day. Recall that above, I drew all sorts of lines on all types of charts and everything seemed to point to support and a bottom for the CCI, somewhere between 450 and 500.

  • If we use 349 as the low for the first correction and mark the second high as 691 in April of 2011, that's a 342 point rally. If we are currently experiencing another 61.8% retracement, we should expect a bottom near 480. Why? 342 x 61.8% = 211 and 691 - 211 = 480.
  • If we use 184 as the low that marked the beginning of the bull market in 2001 and 691 from April of 2011 as the latest top, we get an overall move of 507 points. If on this broad sense, we were to look for a Fibonacci retracement, we don't need to start at 61.8%. Instead, we need to look at the Fibo number preceding it which is 38.2%. If we use that Fibo level, what do we get? 507 x 38.2% = 194 and 691 - 194 = 497.
  • So the linear and log charts show support between 450 and 500 and the Fibos tell us to expect a bottom between 480 and 497. Works for me!

OK. Right now you're probably completely numb and wondering what the heck was the point of all this. I understand how you feel so allow me to sum up:

  1. The goon from DB truly is a DB and he is either hopelessly wrong or intentionally deceiving everyone in the hopes of adding fuel to the commodity liquidation fire.
  2. I believe that the bull market in real assets that began in 2001 continues unabated.
  3. This current correction likely has a little ways farther to go, however. Perhaps a much as 10% more, taking the CCI down under 500 before finding The Bottom.
  4. Once a clear bottom is found, the Flow of Funds from Specs will reverse and all "commodities", including gold and silver, will trend higher into the next short-term top, whenever that happens.

Finally, you and I both know that gold and silver specifically have been manipulated lower for a number of reasons and will soon move higher again based upon their own fundamentals and not the whims of the Specs. A short squeeze or LBMA/Comex default brought about by physical demand will move prices higher regardless of how soybeans and crude oil are trading. But the point of this exercise was to address the "traditionalist" view of the commodity markets and bring that view into line with where all of us in Turdville see things headed. I hope I've been able to accomplish just that.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 23, 2013 - 4:11pm

The title of this post...

...makes me think of one of my favorite places on Planet Earth...Ebb & Flo's on Bald Head Island off of North Carolina. I wish I was there right now. Just seeing it makes me want to take the rest of the day off...

May 23, 2013 - 4:12pm

But before I go...

A reminder. The Riff-Raffle remains open until late tomorrow and I encourage everyone to check out the growing list of prizes. Simply spectacular.

May 23, 2013 - 4:16pm


Now I read!

Spartacus Rex
May 23, 2013 - 4:17pm


Top Ten edit: actually 4urdth?

May 23, 2013 - 4:17pm


No, but third will do!!! Great raffles and a top ten - life in Turdville is sweet indeed!

May 23, 2013 - 4:17pm


May 23, 2013 - 4:21pm

3? no I take sixth.

(edit) not the turd, I'll take the sixth. Two Turdly comments piled above the rest.

The Sixth Amendment

In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the State and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor, and to have the Assistance of Counsel for his defence.

May 23, 2013 - 4:23pm


Well it looks the BIG SQUEEZE is continuing in the gold mining industry. However this is very good for much higher gold prices in the future.

Spartacus Rex
May 23, 2013 - 4:26pm

Ebb & Flows of MOPE

Perhaps the DB from DB is signaling that with all of the hypothecating and corruption in the paper side of the markets, that 'paper's' supercycle in commodities is over?

May 23, 2013 - 4:30pm

top ten

keep stackin gold, silver, and copper plated lead. received a very heavy box today (copper plated lead)

bullion only
May 23, 2013 - 4:37pm

Gold as a commodity

I believe that during the 20 year bear market from 1980 to 2000 that gold was treated as a commodity, however, from 2000 to present it is treated as a currency. In the commodity days the price of gold was the price of extraction(mining costs and admin and salaries....). Now it is based on the comparative currency devaluations against all fiat in total. Commodities are based on supply and demand or as in the futures market the perception and future prediction of supply and demand. Take soybeans for instance or corn. I have seen them limit up or down due to extreme changes in weather yet have no effect on gold's price.


Spartacus Rex
May 23, 2013 - 4:40pm

Re: Gold as a commodity?

On the other hand, hasn't Gold always been "Money", ergo has always traded on the "currency desks" of major brokerages?

The Watchman
May 23, 2013 - 4:46pm

GLD Continues to be DRAINED-1.5 Tonnes Gone

Total gold in trust



Value US$45,192,062,884.42

May 23, 2013 - 4:54pm

Stackers only repost and edit.

I was lucky enough to be "awakened" in my early 20's about how money worked.

I was not from a rich family and I'm still.........I guess I could say financially embarrassed.

I was taught about gold and silver in the early 90's, but didn't have any money to act on what I knew.

I'm going from memory here and some of the dates may not be dead on, but listen to me.

I had a pretty decent job when 9/11 happened. I was making fair money at best, and I had a huge savings account of about $5000.

Had a young family and a mortgage.

When I heard the FED was going to drop the Lending Rate by 1% to help stimulate the economy I immediately knew what that meant. The people were no longer confident. The people no longer wanted to spend their money due to uncertainty. The economy was going down fast if the money wasn't flowing a lot faster.

I knew inflation was the game plan. Yippy for me.

I told my wife we needed to by gold to protect ourselves from whatever financial crisis that may be coming. She thankfully agreed and we did buy.

Gold was at $270 an ounce at that time. We had to pay a hefty premium of $20 to make a total of $290 an ounce.

We each had the feeling in our gut that maybe we made the wrong move.

I can tell you today.

We didn't.

Edit: I posted this because I wanted the people here to know that the PM's have helped me. I was lucky enough to buy some at a lower price and trade some when life crept up and bit me on the butt....... You all know what I mean.

Don't ever feel like you made a bad move by buying metal. Never.

Good luck friends.

May 23, 2013 - 4:55pm


I guess this sort of addresses my question a few days ago, although I know it wasn't my question you were addressing. I guess I still don't understand how you can rely on TA, and for [lol] fib numbers, and not acknowledge economic cycles (supercycles). It's kind of a historical and mathematical fact they exist on a 30 yr timeline. I also get that market manipulation and intervention can offset a cycle, however many of the indicators are lining up for a peak cycle. A DGR headed in to an inflationary environment (a high DGR, usually above 70 will indicate we are at a peak). A low Dow Gold ratio (as Watching dogma pointed out in the same thread) will indicate the same. It's basic economics for the most part. At the peak of a cycle it may appear bullish, but in fact it is a final push before a waning cycle.

All commodities are interlinked. For that matter all markets are interlinked. The argument made seems logically flawed on a number of premises. A fallacy built on assumptions. I have no doubt we are headed for a rally, but it will be a much different catalyst that causes it. This is important because of where it will go after that rally.

If [when] the DJIA corrects, it will send commodities into a supply/demand trend that may reverse the supercycle. After all, to put this in a less academic perspective; if growth is declining (caterpillar, lumber, bls reports, etc), how can you have a bullish environment in commodities? It's simple, you can't. I say this because these markets have been tampered with qe, and thus are volatile when they reverse. Likewise, many people will have to liquidate their pm positions to cover their hopeless positions (we have seen this many times, this is not my speculation). Liquidation - it happens every time a market corrects. You have to remember where we are to make the subjective call as to whether or not they will recover even to support levels. It is probable, in fact near certain pm's will sink on that ship too. The difference is that the DJIA will recover because of where we are in the cycle - while pm's are clearly at the end of the cycle - thus historically that tells us they will sit. At very best in a horizontal direction..

I'm throwing this out there, not to disagree - but to offer a wider perspective. It seems to be that TA tends to leave blinders on that causes undesired hat eating antics. Also, you need to remember that it is not the action that is important, but rather the reaction...

p.s. I would put more weight in a lunar cycle of pm movements... tomorrow is a full moon. Perhaps we can chart that one.

May 23, 2013 - 4:56pm

Even Flow

Great content once again delivered by Turd, who has found a nice perspective to keep day-to-day metal prices in check and through varying perspectives.

On a side note... the post title "Ebb and Flow" makes me think of the Pearl Jam song...

So I'll be the honorary troll and post it before Dark Purple Haze gets the chance

Pearl Jam - Even Flow
Freezin', rests his head on a pillow made of concrete, again

Oh, Feelin' maybe he'll see a little better, set a days, ooh yeah

Oh, hand out, faces that he sees time again ain't that familiar, oh yeah

Oh, dark grin, he can't help, when he's happy looks insane, oh yeah

Even flow, thoughts arrive like butterflies

Oh, he don't know, so he chases them away

Someday yet, he'll begin his life again

Life again, life again...

May 23, 2013 - 4:59pm

An existential question for Turd

Do you have any criteria for deciding that your fundamental analysis is wrong? I mean, a proposition that is not falsifiable has little worth so at what point would you accept that the purchase of precious metals is a bad idea?

Not that I think you are wrong (yet) but the day may come.

May 23, 2013 - 5:01pm


You troll, you!

Good to see ya' brother :-)

On another note....Any Trekkies out there?

I'm not one but simply an original series follower. Just saw the new was great!!!

Beam me up.....Scottie

May 23, 2013 - 5:05pm

This is the best I have on this topic

God is love:


Submitted by Bugzy on May 23, 2013 - 4:36pm. Hat Tip! 1

Not a bad response to my frock post:

I suspect we can agree on a lot of things:

People in frocks telling folk how they should live = bad.

Churches contain frock people = bad.

God being benevolent and all loving; can we agree to ditch the old testament brimstone sorta thing?

The person that is spoken of as Jesus (and may or may not have existed) said a lot of very interesting philosophical things and I agree with pretty much everything he allegedly said.

However, I can in no way go with the anthropomorphous nature of any such force. Yet I do believe in such a force. Some call it god and when we feel the connection to it some say it is the everlasting soul (and they may be right). I liken it to the cloud (from an internet perspective) in that once ego self is quiet and indeed imperceptible then there is nothing left of ego self to protect. As such one can lower ones defense shields (metaphorical firewalls, antivirus, popup blockers etc) and connect to the WWW // collective consciousness - in such times, one cannot differentiate separateness in any way from the pure which permeates everything. Some say this is being one with god and as such, in this model, god is within all of us. (we just need to allow "it" in). Which is pretty much the core of every religion; once, of course, one strips away all the - you must give us your money and come to our establishment and do exactly what I tell you to do, and no you will not use that condom, or the dude in the sky and fire and Dante and other such....well you get the idea.

So... dying on cross to save us from sins etc, man's bastardization of this wonderful philosophy for its own powerful elite, ill treatment of woman and dark ages and wars and Vatican and choir boys and books about begot begot begot. Literal son of god. Heaven and hell etc... Harps and clouds and... Does not work for me.

This is my interpretation and I very much much doubt that anyone at all will agree that it is 100% correct. Nor can I say that anyone's interpretations or beliefs are wrong.

I cannot accept that in the vastness of the universe with its trillions of stars and planets and millions of species on just this earth, not to mention the potential "out there"; that the creator of all this is a man, who made us out of a rib and tests us daily (and writes it down) to see if we get to burn forever or listen to bloody harps for eternity, not sure which sounds more ghastly. Indeed this anthropomorphism of god, as man, is not even one step removed from believing that the universe revolved around the earth as its centre of importance for all things.

Pssstt memo to XTY - I think it may go something like this. But I could be completely wrong.

TJeffson ¤
May 23, 2013 - 5:07pm

@DPH re: trek

I thought the movie was ok. The story lacked and the fact they remade Wrath of Khan annoyed me greatly. Surely they can come up with something new. The first half of the movie they were all worried about a war with the Klingons but in the 2nd half that seemed to disappear as they just fought with each other.

I liked it slightly more than Iron Man 3 (which was a huge let down).

May 23, 2013 - 5:08pm

Some fundamentals to think about . . .

The GSR is at 61.5:1 meaning that an ounce of gold is 61.5x the dollar value of silver.

However, The two big ETFs, GLD and SLV, even after all the gold drainage we've seen since start of the year, has a gold:silver ratio, in inventories, of just 10:1

COMEX total silver stocks (supposed phyzz dealer and customer silver stored there) are at 20x the COMEX gold totals.

The COMEX OI in silver is at a ratio of 17:1 vs. COMEX OI in gold, meaning there is 17 times as much silver offered for sale and bid on as there is gold.

Silver is currently pulled from the earth at about an 8:1 ratio to gold.

Silver is used in industrial processes, and much of it is never to return to usefulness, while nearly every ounce of gold is kept and/or reclaimed.

To my mind, no matter how you look at it, silver's price is way out of line as compared to gold given known stocks.

Assuming Bernanke has fixed the world, and we will soon be on a sustainable growth trend and he can reduce QE/bond purchases, then the demand for gold should drop as he solves the world's financial problems. However, industrial demand for silver should grow, especially given the new solar panel growth projected in China and elsewhere.

If Bernanke is fibbing, and knows he has no chance of ever stopping QE/bond purchases, as is much more likely, then gold will be headed higher as the needed counterbalance to government debt. This will allow more growth to occur worldwide as well, meaning industrial use of silver will grow, and investment demand will grow as well, as silver acts as the poor man's gold for wealth protection purposes.

To me it seems likely that silver will be cutting well into the GSR as we see it today, no matter what happens, once the metals are free of paper shackles.

El Gordo
May 23, 2013 - 5:13pm

I'm too excited about the Riff-Raffle... think about this stuff right now. As soon as that's over maybe I can get back to business. The Turdville equivalent of the Super Bowl. Are you sure ESPN won't cover the drawing live?

May 23, 2013 - 5:14pm

CCI Ratios & 68.5% Fib

On your CCI from the last chart shows bottoming around October 2013 to January 2014 with reasonable support expected at the 473 level. There is plenty downside from here if your conclusions are indeed valid.

Crunching some number using the CRB CCI where the high is 680 and Silver is $48 ( 680/48 = 14.17)

Currently 534 CCI with silver $22.6 ( 534/22.6 = 23.5 )

Ratios now 23.5/14.17 = 65% To achieve 68.5% Fib we need the next ratio to extend 3.5% (23.5 x 1.035 = 24.3225 ).

If we go with the 470 CCI number where support is then 470/24.3225 = $19.32 for the low price of Silver some time in the next 8 months if we follow the trend lines from your CCI charts.

For GOLD using the same calculations ( 680/1900 = 0.357 ) April 2011. Now ( 534/1390 = 0.3869 ) multiplied by 1.035 = .4005 so our low would result in 470/.4005 = $1175 GOLD PRICE to finish the CCI FIB of 68.5%.

May 23, 2013 - 5:17pm

@Dr Jerome re China

You wrote: "I have been seriously thinking of studying the Chinese language and culture"

This four part series will interest you:

Although no other country in history has risen so quickly from poverty to prosperity as China has, for many in the world's most populous nation, those advances have come at a price.

The economic reforms that made the People's Republic's rise possible have also led to a harshly divided China. Divisions whose impacts could easily spread from disenfranchised indviduals to threaten the economic growth contemporary Chinese society has come to be based upon.

May 23, 2013 - 5:21pm

Bull Markets

To me the commodity bull market is tied to the bull market in government printing, spending, debt and malfeasance. Anyone see that ending any time soon? Thought not.

Could some one post a link to the SLV withdrawals?


The Watchman
May 23, 2013 - 5:25pm

May 23, 2013 - 5:30pm

re partial, dow/gold ratio

Interestingly, I posted charts on the previous thread that show the dow/gold ratio setting up for a dow low and a gold high.

200 Years Of The Dow/Gold Ratio Suggest Staggering Moves Dead Ahead

I don't mean to live in an echo chamber but something will blow

Southern Cross
May 23, 2013 - 5:32pm

This is Really DIsturbing.

This is really disturbing. US citizens killed without a trial, without charged and never declared guilty by a judge or jury. Do not forget this friends. Those who have comited these murders have to be brought to trial when the US revolution comes. We have powers in Washington that have murdered US citizens. Justice must be served in time. NEVER FORGET. This is outright murder.

Holder: American Citizenship Does Not Preclude Being Killed By Drones

Thursday, May 23, 2013 0:10 Before It's News

The Department of Justice has admitted to Senator Patrick Leahy in a letter that the US government has killed 4 Americans with the use of military force, i.e. drones.

Amnesty International, a non-governmental organization (NGO), said that with the US drone policy kept in the shadows, it is clear that “extrajudicial executions” are in violation with international law.

Salil Shetty, secretary general of Amnesty International explained: “Our view is that the legal basis is quite unclear. We have issues with how the United States defines the `theater of war,’ which is a very broad definition which allows them a free reign to use drones and other weapons under a very wide set of circumstances. Our researchers, when talking to people in Pakistan, find that the people are living in constant fear in very remote areas. You really cannot figure out, at the end of the day, who has been injured or killed in a drone attack.”

President Obama is expected to confirm at the National Defence University (NDU) that targeted killing of Americans with drones is “necessary, legal and just”, according to an anonymous White House official.

Obama will sign a presidential policy guidance which will outline standards by which the Obama administration will use drone strikes in the US to kill Americans.

Cry Me A River
May 23, 2013 - 5:36pm


There's really no "link" to the SLV withdrawals. There is only a link where you can get the totals on a daily basis and record them:

You can go to Harvey each day and/or use his archives as far back as you wish to get the data. ---He posts quite a few days back on each of his daily updates: It looks like this:

Inventory at SLV (6 pm est)

May 22.2013

Inception Date 4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust 327,893,650.100
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces. 10,198.63

May 21/2013:

Inception Date 4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust 327,893,650.100
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

May 20.2013:

Inception Date 4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust 329,631,679.700
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

May 17/2013

Inception Date 4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust 329,631,679.700
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

May 16.203:

Inception Date 4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust 334,121,683.000
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

May 15:2013:

Inception Date 4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust 335,666,675.000
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

May 14.2013:

Inception Date 4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust 335,666,675.000
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

May 13.2013:

nception Date 4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust 335,666,675.000
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

May 10.2013:

Inception Date 4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust 335,666,675.000
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

May 9.2013:

Inception Date 4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust 335,666,675.000

may 8.2013

Inception Date 4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust 335,376,960.800
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

May 7.2013:

nception Date 4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust 335,376,960.800
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

May 6.2013:

Inception Date 4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust 335,376,960.800
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

May 23, 2013 - 5:38pm

Ebb-flow / cycle-supercycle

I must point back to an excellent post on the previous thread by Xty. (EDIT: yeah, she already beat me to it)

I may be misinterpreting/misunderstanding, but it seems to me to support my belief that the 'cycles' we are currently seeing in equity valuations are to a large degree a construct of the FedResSystem/USD-as-reserve-currency. This is not to discount/disprove the excellent cycle theory examples presented by great posts on the thread started by Argentus Maximus -- merely to suggest that in the specific case of valuation of equities/commodities in dollars, the unit of denomination itself has a huge influence on how we perceive value and price -- and that the 'cycles' we see are being severely distorted (though perhaps not created, but certainly amplified) by our fiat currency base.


200 Years Of The Dow/Gold Ratio Suggest Staggering Moves Dead Ahead

March 20, 2013

One of the more fascinating reminders of what may be to come for the remainder of this gold bull market, is the charted history of the dow/gold ratio. Below are two charts illustrating the upward potential in gold which remains for the duration of this market.

The first chart is a normal 200-year look at the dow/gold ratio. What’s particularly shocking here, is the staggering levels of volatility injected into the economy and financial system following the US Federal Reserve’s formation in 1913. Now commonly called a “business cycle”, this volatility has wreaked havoc on many, while creating excellent one-way bets for long term speculators. These charts essentially represent, a speculator’s dream.


Here is the second and more alarming dow/gold ratio chart, illustrated with a “confidence trend band”:



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Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Key Economic Events Week of 4/29

4/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc, Cons Spend, Core Infl
4/30 8:30 ET Employment Costs
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/1 9:45 & 10:00 ET Markit and ISM Manu PMIs
5/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
5/1 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
5/1 2:30 ET CGP presser
5/2 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
5/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/3 9:45 & 10:00 ET Markit and ISMServices PMIs

Recent Comments

by Mickey, May 19, 2019 - 10:21pm
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