Pre-Bernank Post

Wed, May 22, 2013 - 10:05am

Just a quick post as The Bernank is due before Congress at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

Five no particular order...

First, the Yen is rolling over again. In case you missed it, here's a reprint of a chart I posted as a comment back on Sunday. I went searching for something historical. One, to put the decline into context and, two, to look for a potential bottom level. Well, I think I found a bottom and it looks to still be a ways away. Maybe 85/115?

The open interest levels as we approach FND for the June13 gold are getting more interesting. The latest number is as of Monday. This leaves us with 8 trading days to go (including yesterday, for which we get the numbers today). As of Monday, the total OI in Comex gold had grown to 453,048. Interestingly, this is the highest OI level since March 13th. Additionally, with 8 days to go until FND, the June13 OI still stands at 186,952. Now don't go getting too excited just yet...but...with 8 days to go before FND for the April13, OI stood at 176,921 and with 8 days to go before Feb13 FND, the Feb13 OI was 187,059. Could we get 12,00-15,000 contracts standing on FND? Maybe. Why is this important? As of last evening, the total Comex registered inventory stood at just under 52 mts. Some quick back-of-the-envelope math reveals that this is only enough gold to settle 16,680 contracts. Hmmmm...

And this is fun. The GLD shed another 8.42 tonnes of "inventory" yesterday, dropping the alleged total "inventory" back to 1023.08 metric tonnes. How long before the total tonnage drops back into he triple digits? At this rate, not very. And chew on this little nugget I was sent yesterday: Back in the day, the GLD added about 230 mts in a little over a month. From 1/16/09 to 2/18/09, the "fund" went from 795.5 mts to 1024.09. Again, hmmmm. We are now back to that level. Will we now see 200 tonnes exit the "fund" in rapid succession???

Jim Quinn has written another excellent article. Please read this today:

And, finally, please check out the growing list of prizes for the Riff-Raffle. We've added several new items, most prominently, a one ounce Gold Philharmonic coin. This brings the total gold coins to be given away up to two!! The deadline for buying tickets has been extended to Friday so please consider purchasing a few and taking your chances. The current pool is about 450 tickets so you still have a decent shot at winning!

Have a fun day and enjoy the pleasant mutterings of The Bernank!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 22, 2013 - 1:44pm

Today was a message....

The message says we are still in control and we will not let the price go up. It doesn't matter what bullish news occurs, we are going to kill the PMs.

We can announce QE will never stop - and smash the PMs

We can announce QE will increase - and smash the PMs

We can announce QE will decrease - and smash the PMs

We can announce higher unemployment - and smash the PMs

We can announce lower unemployment - and smash the PMs

We can go to war with just about anyone - and smash the PMs

If there is a terrorist strike - we'll smash the PMs

We can do bail ins - and smash the PMs

We can do bail outs - and smash the PMs

We can steal people's brokerage accounts - and smash the PMs

We can default on any nation's debts - and smash the PMs

We can have our commercials appear to be net long - and smash the PMs

Dear small investor. There is no way for you to win until the entire f*cking system breaks... and we are going to pull every dirty trick in the book to keep that from happening so don't hold your breath.

May 22, 2013 - 1:36pm

Everything sliding pre FOMC minutes ???

Looks like everything is losing ground just now, not just the metals but stocks too (just for once). I think everything will be hit quite hard to the downside when the minutes are released in 25 mins.

Could well be the Gold retest of 1330 that many on this board have been expecting

May 22, 2013 - 1:25pm

It's a Big Club and You Ain't In It!

George Carlin said it best; "a system that threw them overboard 30 fucking years ago."

To go along with Jim's new piece in the 'Burning Platform' that Turd has linked to. Excellent. Read it.

May 22, 2013 - 1:23pm

let's face it

I know our economy is headed into the tank along with all the ancillary issues.

I still believe that PM will provide a leg up to get to the other side. I think PM will be the last men standing. However, if housing and commercial real estate and fiat and stocks and bonds crap out, will gold even at a lower price be the best thing going?

I think we need the stock market to sell off to get momo players away from there and back into PM. With the size of PM sector do not need much.

May 22, 2013 - 1:21pm

I think everyone should read this


It has been well documented by me that there was going to be a Precious Metals beatdown within the range of $1200 -$1400 per once of Gold and $20-$24 per ounce of Silver. Now the latest forecast from deep behind enemy lines was so earth shaking at first that I myself could not believe it. In fact I am still taking this with a grain of salt. From the inner recesses of International Banking, the Money Masters are deciding on a plan so daunting I do not even know if they can pull it off. That plan folks is to Smash Gold down to $800 to $1000 per ounce!!!! Silver between $16-$18 per ounce. Believe me they will market this as the much needed correction, they will trumpet it as the bull market run being over, thousands will dump what little they have in the open jaws of the Jackal Multinational Banks and the Central Banks that front for them.

I want you to be VERY VERY aware. This strategy while a last ditch effort to save the COMEX, FED and Bullion Banks will also have another driving benefit. It will drive out for good the speculators who have used the instrument of paper manipulation to dictate and affect the physical market for decades. The blowback of all of this is once again ever dwindling supplies of Physical PM's and acquisition premiums going through the roof. Folks what I am saying is if Silver goes to $16 an you think anyone will sell it in an environment in which there are dwindling supplies? NO! Of course NOT! This is going to be the beginning of the permanent dislocation of the Physical market from the Paper Market. I can see it now, ETF $16oz , Physical $40oz that looks like where we will be heading in the short term before the collapse finally arrives and PM's shoot to the moon.

Case in point. The Royal Canadian Mint just released a 1oz Buffalo Silver Commemorative coin at $100 face value, the darn thing is 96% sold out! Whats the big deal about that you say? Well last year the same Canuk mint released a $20 stamped Polar Bear Coin that never moved like this one. In fact stated "Royal Canadian Mint appears to be at or approaching a sell out with buyers getting a perceived bargain by paying face value." Did you get that? Buyers getting a perceived value. So what's really driving the blowout sale of 250,000 coins 96% sold out in days? Simple...The thirst for physical silver all over the world has dried up inventories everywhere, thus causing people to spend up to $100 an ounce and thinking it is a value!!! Why pray tell would the Royal Canadian Mint stamp a $100 face value on a one ounce Silver coin? Are they forecasting something? I think so. I sure do.

Folks watch the movement of oil...Remember this is one of the big indicators and on a future alert/ radio show I will correlate the relationship of Gold and Oil. The two major commodities of any sane nation looking to trade. If Oil continues it's rise there are fund managers in the Too PIG to Fails that are licking their chops to offset some of the worthless US treasuries that they are holding. What is a poor central banker to do? Print to Oblivion I guess. Hoover town here we come.

Be Ready-V-


May 22, 2013
May 22, 2013 - 1:20pm


Miners still up 2%, silver up 15 cents .. gold ...down

Overall amrket looking shaky. The huge blow off on the Bernank's speech looked well .. like a blow off. Not sure how much more candy they can keep giving to the Street. At some point they need a break ... and volumes for a change are up today. Just have this spidy feeling that something is about to blow. Usually it is not good ... but went short the broader market ... masochist that I am.

The Watchman
May 22, 2013 - 1:19pm

Chinese Love Gold

Wednesday, May 22nd 12:47 PM IST

China's Zijin acquires yet another Aussie Gold mine

Full ore production in the mine is expected in November 2013, when gold will be produced at an average rate of 110,000 ounces per annum.

PERTH(BullionStreet): Closing in on Barrick Gold's Yilgarn South group of mines, the 89 percent Zijin-owned Norton Gold Fields, Ltd. opened its latest open cut gold mine, Enterprise in Western Australia's Pilbarra.

Norton Gold Fields is also looking to acquire gold assets and this could include assets put up for sale by Barrick Gold Corp in Western Australia.

Analysts said this is a triumph of the symbiotic partnership between the Fujian-based Zijin and its Australian partner Norton, as shared knowledge and expertise literally prove their worth in gold.

The move suggests that forward looking Chinese operations with low cost capital and high technological capacities are stepping up activity in the global gold sector, just as many of the bigger Western operations are reining in spending in the wake of a 13 percent drop in gold prices since December 2012.

Full ore production in the mine is expected in November 2013, when gold will be produced at an average rate of 110,000 ounces per annum.

With rich synergies and complimentary ambitions, Zijin took control of Norton Gold Fields following a 229 million AU dollar bid, using the Perth-based company as a foothold in the Pilbarra to further acquisitions and joint venture opportunities.

The latest mine to feed Norton's Paddington mill fulfills Zijin's commitment to boost production, reduce unit costs and increase stakeholders' value.

Previously, Norton forecast gold output of 154,000 ounces to 162,000 ounces this calendar year from its Paddington mine in Western Australia.

In standing with the company's strategy to increase production and gold resources at the same time as trimming operating costs, the Australian unit of China's biggest gold producer, has indicated strong interest in three Barrick Gold Corp mines, reflecting strong confidence in the gold's prospects despite a recent drop in prices.

Rising demand for gold bullion and jewellery peaked in China as gold prices slid last month.The interest in Australian gold assets has investors running a ruler through other ASX listed gold companies.

China produced around 410 metric tons of gold in 2012, but consumed nearly 800 tons. The Asian economy is the world's biggest producer of the precious metal, ahead of Australia.

Motley Fool
May 22, 2013 - 1:19pm


I am not sure of the exact timing, but I suspect this :

At the start of his speech it was not clear that he was going to refute the position of tapering, and as such a spike occured on speculator thoughts shifting to systemic risk...later into his speech it became clear that QE was not ending...hence back to 'normal'.


Edit :

Having quickly looked at the ZH headlines, it seems the reverse is true...which makes more sense. BQE promised MOAR to begin with...and so it spiked, and later expressed concern about frothiness etc and hinted at perhaps reducing QE later, and so it dropped.

Fact is, god knows what is going on in the minds of those people, they can justify pretty much anything.

Cry Me A River
May 22, 2013 - 1:06pm

Ten Year Note Break Point Reached

A Few Weeks Ago, I Posted A Chart Of The Ten Year Note Yield Along With It's 3-Year MA. The reason for this was that the last time the ten year yield jumped above it's 3-year MA, (when the rate was at 3.24% on 12-08-2010), the silver prices rallied. This condition was just reached today, where the rate is now 2%:

I believe this to be significant, as it signals that although the ten year yield has been lowered by a full percentage point, nothing has changed except that we have added almost exactly $3 trillion to our national debt. As a result, any rise in interest rates will kill this fake recovery and require the Ben Bernank to resume QE even if he fakes at winding it down. Thus, we may be at an inflection point where yields rise and the stock market stalls. I just don't believe any of this "Exit Strategy" BS we're hearing today from this criminal who should be lead out of the congressional building in chains.

Here's a blow up of the inflection point:

May 22, 2013 - 1:05pm


In that case, what would have validated the earlier rise in metals? Bernanke literally pulling out a stack of benjamin's and making it rain?

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