Pre-Bernank Post

Wed, May 22, 2013 - 10:05am

Just a quick post as The Bernank is due before Congress at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

Five no particular order...

First, the Yen is rolling over again. In case you missed it, here's a reprint of a chart I posted as a comment back on Sunday. I went searching for something historical. One, to put the decline into context and, two, to look for a potential bottom level. Well, I think I found a bottom and it looks to still be a ways away. Maybe 85/115?

The open interest levels as we approach FND for the June13 gold are getting more interesting. The latest number is as of Monday. This leaves us with 8 trading days to go (including yesterday, for which we get the numbers today). As of Monday, the total OI in Comex gold had grown to 453,048. Interestingly, this is the highest OI level since March 13th. Additionally, with 8 days to go until FND, the June13 OI still stands at 186,952. Now don't go getting too excited just yet...but...with 8 days to go before FND for the April13, OI stood at 176,921 and with 8 days to go before Feb13 FND, the Feb13 OI was 187,059. Could we get 12,00-15,000 contracts standing on FND? Maybe. Why is this important? As of last evening, the total Comex registered inventory stood at just under 52 mts. Some quick back-of-the-envelope math reveals that this is only enough gold to settle 16,680 contracts. Hmmmm...

And this is fun. The GLD shed another 8.42 tonnes of "inventory" yesterday, dropping the alleged total "inventory" back to 1023.08 metric tonnes. How long before the total tonnage drops back into he triple digits? At this rate, not very. And chew on this little nugget I was sent yesterday: Back in the day, the GLD added about 230 mts in a little over a month. From 1/16/09 to 2/18/09, the "fund" went from 795.5 mts to 1024.09. Again, hmmmm. We are now back to that level. Will we now see 200 tonnes exit the "fund" in rapid succession???

Jim Quinn has written another excellent article. Please read this today:

And, finally, please check out the growing list of prizes for the Riff-Raffle. We've added several new items, most prominently, a one ounce Gold Philharmonic coin. This brings the total gold coins to be given away up to two!! The deadline for buying tickets has been extended to Friday so please consider purchasing a few and taking your chances. The current pool is about 450 tickets so you still have a decent shot at winning!

Have a fun day and enjoy the pleasant mutterings of The Bernank!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Cry Me A River
May 22, 2013 - 2:32pm

Response To Turd About GLD Depletion Rates

Last Night, After I Crashed At Elwood's, Turd Wrote:

"Hey, Jake

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 21, 2013 - 8:36pm. MODERATOR Hat Tip! 9

Did I typo earlier? I haven't gone back to check. OOPS. I meant triple digits in tonnes. For a little extra fun, I just got this very interesting email from a contact I have who pays very close attention to things. Read this: another 8.42tons shed at 1023.08 tick tock tick tock towards 1000 tons we march

why is 1000 tons imp?

It has nothing to do with the round number psychology.if you plot the tonnage from Nov 04, you will see that the tonnage increased very rapidly from 795.5 on 16th Jan 2009 to1024.09 on 18th Feb 2009 This was right before QE was announced on 16th March 2009. I am expecting a sudden 200 ton drop very soon." So I Thought I'd Extend The Chart And See What It Might Look Like: Since My Chart Is Calibrated In Oz., 200 tonnes = 6,430,000 oz. The Current GLD Inventory = 32,892,960 oz. Turd's Target is 26,462,960 oz. So---Let's see when this might occur on my chart: If my original depletion rate were used, it would show that we'll get there in about 5 months by 10-23-2013 using a 30-day MA to generate the data. However, the recent depletion rates have dropped the inventory 490,208 oz. below the estimated drop rate line. Thus, in order to reach the daily drop rate indicated by recent data, we'd either have to project the estimated inventory ahead to 5-31-2013, or apply the average daily depletion rate as of 5-31-2013. This requires a 9-day MA which is increases the daily depletion rate to -144,774 oz. This would occur on 7-5-2013---AMAZING! Here's The Chart:
May 22, 2013 - 2:25pm


BUT, the gold miners are holding up relatively well today (so far, 1 1/2 hours to go) compared to gold which is a ray of light in another bonkers day.

The Watchman
May 22, 2013 - 2:19pm
May 22, 2013 - 2:18pm

So f'd up

So.....the market and gold gets hit because the Fed may taper their bond purchases. Well WTF has been happening since September 2012 then Bart Chilton? Why wasn't gold rallying with stock markets when the Fed increased their bond purchases to $85B a month? Therefore if gold has traded down since September 2012 when the Fed announced the $85B/month bond purchases, shoulnd't the gold market be lifting off today if the Fed may scale back these purchases? Just like a previous poster said the paper price is being capped and beaten down. This can't continue forever. You wonder why the average investor left the builing a long time ago. The markets are completely FUBAR.

Howard Roark
May 22, 2013 - 2:17pm

In the UK

"Man beheaded in suspected terrorist attack outside army barracks in London"

And Cameron returned from EU meeting.

On RT (online).

May 22, 2013 - 2:15pm


If you go to the "Recent Comments" widget in the side bar and click "more" at the bottom it'll open up to another page that's a lot different then the Google search at the top of the page.

Search any posters name in that Recent Comments page and you'll have better luck. You can also be forum specific to help narrow things down.

Besides these main threads most of my comments are in the Frivolity Forum.

Good luck trying to sift through and find any of my specific comments over the past 2 years (almost) Needle in the haystack :-)

Here's the comment from last night....there's another follow up comment on the next page.

Keep an open mind. None of the things going on are normal by any stretch and as we can see...they have many levers and means at their disposal... plus a plan in mind.

May 22, 2013 - 1:56pm

Holy Ballz!

Those Slave Queen Rounds are going for $14.99 over spot!! on the Doc's site!

Well I was up late on the 'Bay...

Managed to click my way to a lonely, poured 10 oz. of silver!

LCS is $8 over spot on Maples and ASEs

I am calling it good on purchases even though these are ' reduced' prices for the Metals. My gut tells me that if they languish around at these levels , things will ripen for another down draft... and it seems it would be a significant move. That would be when I get interested again

May 22, 2013 - 1:54pm

HR 807 stalled in Senate

There is a chance we may soon have a new law passed that requires all US debt to be paid regardless whether or not the debt ceiling is increased. HR 807 went through the house on 5-9-2013, but has stalled in Senate. I will be watching to see what becomes of this bill.

May 22, 2013 - 1:48pm


finish, but nontheless, higher highs and higher lows, so back in heterodyne bullish mode, needing seven days of +2 scores for the shuttle lift off, but close is not a good sign, but bull puckey is in play. Just bear fighting in Mexico City, so, hasta la vista baby, and chill out, dick wads. Just being cool fools, with, at ease disease, theres fungus among us.

T2 Hasta La Vista, Baby
2nd Dan Fredpforth
May 22, 2013 - 1:48pm

Deep Regret

Pforth, I can only say that it is with deep regret that I must agree with you. It breaks my heart.

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
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7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
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Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
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Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
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7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
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7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
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7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
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7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
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Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
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Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
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6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

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