Pre-Bernank Post

130
Wed, May 22, 2013 - 10:05am

Just a quick post as The Bernank is due before Congress at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

Five things...in no particular order...

First, the Yen is rolling over again. In case you missed it, here's a reprint of a chart I posted as a comment back on Sunday. I went searching for something historical. One, to put the decline into context and, two, to look for a potential bottom level. Well, I think I found a bottom and it looks to still be a ways away. Maybe 85/115?

The open interest levels as we approach FND for the June13 gold are getting more interesting. The latest number is as of Monday. This leaves us with 8 trading days to go (including yesterday, for which we get the numbers today). As of Monday, the total OI in Comex gold had grown to 453,048. Interestingly, this is the highest OI level since March 13th. Additionally, with 8 days to go until FND, the June13 OI still stands at 186,952. Now don't go getting too excited just yet...but...with 8 days to go before FND for the April13, OI stood at 176,921 and with 8 days to go before Feb13 FND, the Feb13 OI was 187,059. Could we get 12,00-15,000 contracts standing on FND? Maybe. Why is this important? As of last evening, the total Comex registered inventory stood at just under 52 mts. Some quick back-of-the-envelope math reveals that this is only enough gold to settle 16,680 contracts. Hmmmm...

And this is fun. The GLD shed another 8.42 tonnes of "inventory" yesterday, dropping the alleged total "inventory" back to 1023.08 metric tonnes. How long before the total tonnage drops back into he triple digits? At this rate, not very. And chew on this little nugget I was sent yesterday: Back in the day, the GLD added about 230 mts in a little over a month. From 1/16/09 to 2/18/09, the "fund" went from 795.5 mts to 1024.09. Again, hmmmm. We are now back to that level. Will we now see 200 tonnes exit the "fund" in rapid succession???

Jim Quinn has written another excellent article. Please read this today: https://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=54125

And, finally, please check out the growing list of prizes for the Riff-Raffle. We've added several new items, most prominently, a one ounce Gold Philharmonic coin. This brings the total gold coins to be given away up to two!! The deadline for buying tickets has been extended to Friday so please consider purchasing a few and taking your chances. The current pool is about 450 tickets so you still have a decent shot at winning!

Have a fun day and enjoy the pleasant mutterings of The Bernank!

TF

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  130 Comments

Swineflogger ¤
May 22, 2013 - 11:04am

@DPH " . . as soon as I drool . . . "

OMG! That tickled my funny bone big time! "As soon as I drool he'll write something in his little book" - you made my day brother.

Watcher
May 22, 2013 - 11:08am

Ron Rosen

Here is a snippet from a KWN blog entry. I like the way he is reading the au/ag markets. The bull has shaken out all the weak hands. Those who bought in the 1300s and 22s were wise.
Ron Rosen: "You only see these types of opportunities every three years or so and they don’t last long. This is the fourth opportunity over a 13-year period, and it’s been like clockwork. Gold and the gold complex have had the purist bull market of any complex I’ve ever seen in my 56 years in this business. This next leg of the gold bull market will see two important milestones in terms of price. The first move will take gold to $2,800 in the next 12 months. So we are talking about a roughly $1,500 move for gold in a short period of time. The full advance of this particular leg will see gold hit $3,700 in just over two years. This means the price of gold will close to triple during that time frame. This will be the biggest move in gold. It will be the biggest in term of the price advance and also in terms of the percentage of the advance. So it will be the largest since the bull market started. This move that is coming in gold, contrary to expectations and bearish announcements from Wall Street firms, will be absolutely stunning.” I call silver a ‘cantankerous metal.’ It follows gold, but it will scare the hell out of you in doing so. Gold won’t scare you but silver will. But even though silver will scare the hell out of people, it will also perform magnificently if you have the guts to hold on to it. The bottom in silver just took place and it will have a large advance along the same timelines as gold, but the trip in between will be like flying in an airplane and hitting an air pocket. It will take your breath away. Silver should advance to $92 in about 10 months. So you are talking about a 400% advance in that metal in less than a year. Past that you are looking at a $130 price for silver as gold hits $3,700. This means silver will advance 600% as gold roughly triples in price. So silver will have an enormous move, but it will give you a heart attack because of the way it will trade during that massive advance. Silver will outperform gold, but you will have to be able to stomach the gyrations if you want to take advantage of the massive price rise.”
Silver To Soar A Stunning 400% & Gold $1,500 In 10 Months May 22, 2013 GOLD MONTHLY LOGARITHMIC CHART
click to enlarge
Maximillion
May 22, 2013 - 11:08am

SNAFU

Situation normal, all f**ked up.

A 3% swing in less than 1hr, now if I could just get myself to sell at the right time I'd be rich!. Only problem is I just don't think it's the right time to sell just yet lol

achmachat
May 22, 2013 - 11:09am

@SRSrocco

This is from a "small" (population of 400,000) town in the North-East of China:

there's a bunch of typical Chinese gold shops on the main shopping street, but they've only got gold in the form of 24K jewelry left, no coins, no small bars and no big bars.

A popular way to buy gold there is also at the Agricultural Bank of China, where you usually can buy gold in various sizes and shapes. They have nothing left except some fractional gold rounds (biggest one is 10 grams).

This means that it's not just in the major cities where there's a run on physical metal!

usk
May 22, 2013 - 11:09am

Spot Gold: -50$ in half an hour

Well. Bernanke monkeys are in total control of the paper market.

Utilitarian
May 22, 2013 - 11:11am

Attempting to Understand the Problem

If Kyle Bass wins his bet and the Yen implodes then what? The Japanese and Americans know the payout on the bet would be a game changer. So far he has not given an inch on closing his position.

When the Yen implodes what country would pose the greatest risk to the Elites for the NWO? The USA comes to mind as a strong first choice. Cyprus was small and all weapons besides the double barrel shotgun were already prohibited. Home Land Security must agree or maybe they are planning to win the next New Year’s fireworks contest.

The Fed made Washington DC drunk on the low interest. That way nobody is sober enough to know when rates go up the jig is up. People think European Banks have problems because the corporate bond market is kind of the same as the banks. While in the USA the corporate bond market and banks are counted as separate markets. Thinking about Egan Jones…

Basil is in Europe and not New York. China and Russia seem to have no interest in provoking a conflict. The false flag needs to start somewhere and before Japan has problems! What are they going to do?

People that know what is wrong with the system are not going to be a problem. It will be all those people who believe recovery is a hand that will feel betrayed, angry and wanting pay back. Could that be why Homeland Security is planning a fireworks display?

Do the math and stack what you can. Check out the Peak Prosperity website to calm the nerves. Remember to great words of the great Captain Jack Sparrow “The problem is not the problem. The problem is your attitude about the problem. Do you understand?”

Zoltan
May 22, 2013 - 11:20am

@Would You Believe Did the Bernank tip his hand?

Okay 2 trillion to 25 billion (for the math impaired) is like 2,000 to 25. That is a reduction of almost 99%. How could this be accomplished? Well a 100 to 1 reduction in the USD works out to.... hmmm.... about 99%!!!!! Is this the end game? Screws all those that "lent" the US money by buying treasuries (soon to be gutted 99%). So are gold and silver going to be 100 baggers? Handy to have all those new (and different) hundred dollar bills just waiting on pallets, heck they even have some bizarre references to gold on them. Z

realitybiter
May 22, 2013 - 11:21am

yen leads

Bass is right

The Japanese are committing currency hari kari.

Then what? I think the rubicon is the collective conscience of market participants realizing that all these sovereign debts are connected, the JGBs are terminally infected, infecting all, and then the blank looks get cast around the trading floor...."you got it and I don't want it..." Then what?

Bass said recently that the reaction could be sudden. He said that you are looking at decades of denial. When reality sets in, the reaction will be sudden and hard.

I think this will be quite chaotic. I'm pretty sure that PMs will still be PMs on the otherside, however, wtfdik?

usk
May 22, 2013 - 11:22am

This action in the markets look very disorderly

This action today in every markets (stocks, metals, bonds) shows us that algos are starting to run mad. Bernanke and his algos have completly fucked up the value of assets of every markets. Dislocation will start soon. Markets prices will gap up and down. Look at these insane moves today :

Banana-republic trading ranges for Treasuries:

.FVX: 12.85% .TNX: 06.77% .TYX: 03.65%
¤
May 22, 2013 - 11:24am

"...the whole system crashing down."

What if at some point that's the desired effect so that a new system laden with new capital controls rises from the ashes? See my post on this last night in the previous thread. I've posted about this months ago also and it seems plausible to me. It'll take an event or emergency market/banking meltdown to validate an aggressive Treasury/Fed approach just like it did last time. Outside the box is where future probabilities lie.

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