Pre-Bernank Post

Wed, May 22, 2013 - 10:05am

Just a quick post as The Bernank is due before Congress at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

Five no particular order...

First, the Yen is rolling over again. In case you missed it, here's a reprint of a chart I posted as a comment back on Sunday. I went searching for something historical. One, to put the decline into context and, two, to look for a potential bottom level. Well, I think I found a bottom and it looks to still be a ways away. Maybe 85/115?

The open interest levels as we approach FND for the June13 gold are getting more interesting. The latest number is as of Monday. This leaves us with 8 trading days to go (including yesterday, for which we get the numbers today). As of Monday, the total OI in Comex gold had grown to 453,048. Interestingly, this is the highest OI level since March 13th. Additionally, with 8 days to go until FND, the June13 OI still stands at 186,952. Now don't go getting too excited just yet...but...with 8 days to go before FND for the April13, OI stood at 176,921 and with 8 days to go before Feb13 FND, the Feb13 OI was 187,059. Could we get 12,00-15,000 contracts standing on FND? Maybe. Why is this important? As of last evening, the total Comex registered inventory stood at just under 52 mts. Some quick back-of-the-envelope math reveals that this is only enough gold to settle 16,680 contracts. Hmmmm...

And this is fun. The GLD shed another 8.42 tonnes of "inventory" yesterday, dropping the alleged total "inventory" back to 1023.08 metric tonnes. How long before the total tonnage drops back into he triple digits? At this rate, not very. And chew on this little nugget I was sent yesterday: Back in the day, the GLD added about 230 mts in a little over a month. From 1/16/09 to 2/18/09, the "fund" went from 795.5 mts to 1024.09. Again, hmmmm. We are now back to that level. Will we now see 200 tonnes exit the "fund" in rapid succession???

Jim Quinn has written another excellent article. Please read this today:

And, finally, please check out the growing list of prizes for the Riff-Raffle. We've added several new items, most prominently, a one ounce Gold Philharmonic coin. This brings the total gold coins to be given away up to two!! The deadline for buying tickets has been extended to Friday so please consider purchasing a few and taking your chances. The current pool is about 450 tickets so you still have a decent shot at winning!

Have a fun day and enjoy the pleasant mutterings of The Bernank!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 22, 2013 - 2:56pm

A novel way to look at the market

Keiser Report: Down is New Up, Up is New Down

Listen carefully to the interview with sandeep. Very interesting

I think this may have a ring of truth to it, Now it all makes sense we are just looking at it upside down LOL


Cry Me A River
May 22, 2013 - 2:56pm


Elwood's fine---He's singing about the new Rubber Currency:

Blues Brothers - Rubber Biscuit
Big Buffalo
May 22, 2013 - 2:55pm

Holiday Weekend

Metals usually get beat up on 3 day weekends, right?

May 22, 2013 - 2:53pm

To anyone that thinks it is not a manipulated market

Did anyone see the nice control of the XAU (miners) index from 2:15 to about 2:45. They had managed to keep it up even with a declining gold price, but after the minutes it fell and slowly edged down close to unchanged bit by little bit. Then with the overall market getting hit they just held it there, right at even for the day ... steady as a rock, varying by maybe .01 points. That is quite impressive as the XAU has about 20 stocks in it and it is not a traded index, meaning you have to get 20 stocks to behave just so to hold it flat. Impressive, dare I say masterful. But random ... no way.

May 22, 2013 - 2:47pm


Once you go "Stack" never go


BohemianCry Me A River
May 22, 2013 - 2:46pm


Good job, Jake. How's Elwood...?

"Let's see when this might occur on my chart: If my original depletion rate were used, it would show that we'll get there in about 5 months by 10-23-2013 using a 30-day MA to generate the data."

Hmmm... So, it could be anytime between July and October. And the new US$100 bill will go into circulation on October 8, 2013, right? Yes, it works for me.

May 22, 2013 - 2:44pm

Dstage re: $100 Buffalo

I seem to remember the same talk when the $20 for$20(1/4oz.) came out, the Mint was forecasting a price of $

Is the coin a good value for Canadians??

The $100 face value gives the perception of backed by Gov. ... I hear lots of "can't be worth any less" .... lol

However, you would be very hard pressed to find a Bank that would willingly give you a $100 for it; I do not know of any.

Its' a Gimmick, ..... Step right up...Sell'n Out Fast!! .... Get'em while they're Hot!!!.....LOL


Edit: There has been 7 or 8 $20 for $20's issued, all sold out.

I would think there will be many more $100 for $100's issued in the future...then $500 for $500 3oz coin...hyperinflation of the pm'

May 22, 2013 - 2:43pm

Editorial comment...

You know Pforth, you should really say "smash the PMs/PAPER", as we all know there is a disconnect forming between the physical and paper prices.

Do you know anyone, not under financial duress, who has sold their phys for fiat during the past - pick a period - ?

Once you cross the line from paper to phys, I think you'll find it is very hard to go back.

May 22, 2013 - 2:41pm

So if QE gets tapered off,

So if QE gets tapered off, and things get bad in the economy and markets, isn't that more gold positive than the current QE program?

I say stop QE, and lets see what happens, and how quickly it would need to be restarted, bottom line, GO FOR Ben!!

May 22, 2013 - 2:40pm

DrkPurpleHaze - Thank you for the search info

U just opened up a whole new world. Thanks for taking the time to fully explain how to use more of the features on this site.

Peaked into the search and your prior posts will be read and pondered.

Problem Solved :)

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
4/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

Recent Comments

by OceanX, 1 hour 11 min ago
by Reignbird, 1 hour 14 min ago
by Phoenix79, 1 hour 34 min ago
by uni59, 1 hour 46 min ago
by indiana rod, 1 hour 46 min ago