Pre-Bernank Post

130
Wed, May 22, 2013 - 10:05am

Just a quick post as The Bernank is due before Congress at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

Five things...in no particular order...

First, the Yen is rolling over again. In case you missed it, here's a reprint of a chart I posted as a comment back on Sunday. I went searching for something historical. One, to put the decline into context and, two, to look for a potential bottom level. Well, I think I found a bottom and it looks to still be a ways away. Maybe 85/115?

The open interest levels as we approach FND for the June13 gold are getting more interesting. The latest number is as of Monday. This leaves us with 8 trading days to go (including yesterday, for which we get the numbers today). As of Monday, the total OI in Comex gold had grown to 453,048. Interestingly, this is the highest OI level since March 13th. Additionally, with 8 days to go until FND, the June13 OI still stands at 186,952. Now don't go getting too excited just yet...but...with 8 days to go before FND for the April13, OI stood at 176,921 and with 8 days to go before Feb13 FND, the Feb13 OI was 187,059. Could we get 12,00-15,000 contracts standing on FND? Maybe. Why is this important? As of last evening, the total Comex registered inventory stood at just under 52 mts. Some quick back-of-the-envelope math reveals that this is only enough gold to settle 16,680 contracts. Hmmmm...

And this is fun. The GLD shed another 8.42 tonnes of "inventory" yesterday, dropping the alleged total "inventory" back to 1023.08 metric tonnes. How long before the total tonnage drops back into he triple digits? At this rate, not very. And chew on this little nugget I was sent yesterday: Back in the day, the GLD added about 230 mts in a little over a month. From 1/16/09 to 2/18/09, the "fund" went from 795.5 mts to 1024.09. Again, hmmmm. We are now back to that level. Will we now see 200 tonnes exit the "fund" in rapid succession???

Jim Quinn has written another excellent article. Please read this today: https://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=54125

And, finally, please check out the growing list of prizes for the Riff-Raffle. We've added several new items, most prominently, a one ounce Gold Philharmonic coin. This brings the total gold coins to be given away up to two!! The deadline for buying tickets has been extended to Friday so please consider purchasing a few and taking your chances. The current pool is about 450 tickets so you still have a decent shot at winning!

Have a fun day and enjoy the pleasant mutterings of The Bernank!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  130 Comments

  Refresh
daveyboy
May 22, 2013 - 4:13pm

Defector reporting for duty

Jack, you are telling me that ebay is the real price, but I can buy real gold at....

Nugget | Kangaroo, 1oz Gold, 2013 31.10g 1,410.93 $ 1,410.93 $

That's not paper, that's the shiny stuff

Martin Armstrong basically said that you haven't seen anything in dollar strength yet especially as Europe disintegrates, so hang on to your minds when silver likely falls below $19 (i will try holding on to my mind).

zman
May 22, 2013 - 4:12pm

10 year bond yield at 2.04%, 

10 year bond yield at 2.04%, what is a dangerous yield for the Fed? 2.50% ?

Either way, I don't think the bond price will run away if the Fed continues will the current QE program, $85 billion per month buys a lot of bonds.

This economy and finincial system can not handle higher interest rates, why is that a difficult concept for the CNBC gang?

We will have ultra low interest rates until (5-10 years) a new currency is established, that is how I see it.

Hunt brother
May 22, 2013 - 4:10pm

CNBS killed the stock market rally...

When they ran a story this morning

"Which goes to 20,000 first...Nikkei or Dow Jones ?

Great contrary indicator.

ag1969
May 22, 2013 - 4:08pm

Am I the only one having trouble with the site?

I get an error message everytime I try to Hat tip Dog's virgin hillary comment, I watched everyone's avatar disappear right up the page one by one, and it has crashed on me 4 times today. Sum-ting-wong.

dumpsterCry Me A River
May 22, 2013 - 4:01pm

more grist means nothing

looks like wave iii-(5) of minor 5 of major [3]-P3-C1 has topped out at the iii=1.62*i target of 1650. Expect iv-(5) of minor 5 to hold above the wave i-(5) high of 1636 before v-(5) of minor 5 reach the minor 5=0.62*minor 1 target of 1665 to complete major [3]-P3. Once major [3]-P3 is complete major [4]-P3 should correct to the 38% retrace target of 1515.

LOL LOL LOL LOL

Road_Scholar
May 22, 2013 - 3:53pm

Derivatives

are going to be what blows up the whole paper system. When interest rates finally break-out to the upside the Interest Rate Derivatives are going to be payable and there's trillions hidden in deep, dark, secret places & off-balance sheets. Did anyone happen to catch that derivatives are NOW payable before bondholders in bankruptcy (remember MFing Global)? They're FIRST. Guess what else? The largest holders of derivatives (JP Morgan + Chase), (Merrill Lynch + Bank of America) and Citibank have lots of deposits waiting for a bail-in to pay for their derivative contract exposure...

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Cry Me A River
May 22, 2013 - 3:50pm
JackPutter
May 22, 2013 - 3:47pm

Market awareness?

Monex Silver ASEs ad on Bloombutt-TV no price quoted.

tyberious
May 22, 2013 - 3:45pm

RE:Regarding "tapering"

The PD's are running out of MBS for the FED to buy.

https://www.bankregdata.com/allSCmet.asp?met=MBS

The MBS purchase program was first announced in November 2008 and the Fed expanded the size of the program in early 2009. In total, $1.25 trillion in Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae loans were purchased between January 2009 and March 2010, when the purchase phase of the program was first completed. It revved up again with QE3, to the tune of over $40 billion in MBS purchases each month, and says it will continue to do so until unemployment falls to 7 percent. Unemployment rose to 7.9 percent last month.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/ambs/

Agency MBS Transaction Summary

On September 13, 2012, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) directed the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to begin purchasing additional agency MBS at a pace of $40 billion per month. The FOMC also directed the Desk to maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency MBS in agency MBS. The FOMC noted that these actions should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

E-mail alert

Gross purchases from May 9 through May 15: $17,300 million
Sales (dollar rolls) from May 9 through May 15: $2,200 million
Net purchases from May 9 through May 15: $15,100 million

All amounts reflect current face

Purchases summarize all trades executed during the indicated period including purchases associated with dollar rolls.
Transactions ($ million)
Maturity Coupon Rate Settlement Month FHLMC FNMA GNMA GNMA2
30 YEAR 2.5 June 0 0 0 200
2.5 July 0 350 0 0
3 June 3,500 5,350 350 1,600
3.5 June 0 450 1,000 250
15 YEAR 2 June 100 200 0 0
2 July 450 750 0 0
2.5 June 750 1,100 0 0
3 June 900 0 0 0
TOTAL 5,700 8,200 1,350 2,050
Dyna mo hum
May 22, 2013 - 3:39pm

what the hell is going on re Woolwich?

It seems the Brits are being given the memo. The Barbarians have been welcomed into the gates. The perp was probably an government assistance.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Recent Comments

by -SilverIsMoney-, 20 min 25 sec ago
by Turd Ferguson, 44 min 56 sec ago
by zenharmonics, 1 hour 20 min ago
by zenharmonics, 1 hour 27 min ago

Forum Discussion

by dangerkitty, 19 min 31 sec ago
by Cawaceva, 2 hours 18 min ago
by Tyrion, 3 hours 2 min ago
by 11IMIX, 8 hours 21 min ago
by 11IMIX, 8 hours 30 min ago
randomness