The Audacity of MOPE

Thu, May 16, 2013 - 11:49am

With the metals down again today, I thought it was time to spread some information, not misinformation or disinformation.

The common MOPE regarding the rising U.S. stock market and potential Fed "tapering" is that finally, after four years of fits and starts, the U.S. economy is recovering and growing based on the improving economic statistics and burgeoning housing recovery. So is that really the case?

Yesterday, we discussed the fallacies of the latest BLSBS data and, as any regular reader of ZeroHedge knows, over the past 90 days almost every key metric of economic activity has "disappointed". Just today we had:

And, again, that's just today. The meme is that everything is finally getting better. Really? Really?? Hmmm. Let's go back to that housing starts thingy. As discussed yesterday, there's a certain LAW called The Law of Supply and Demand. For those who failed Econ 101, think of it in terms of a chart with a vertical axis and a horizontal axis. In it's most basic form, it looks like this:

What this is showing you is that price exists at the intersection of supply and demand. If you increase the supply or decrease the demand of an item, the price equilibrium is reset lower and price falls. Conversely, decreasing supply or increasing demand has the impact of raising prices. (See, it's not complicated. Maybe if you had spent more time studying and less time at the bar, you might have had a higher GPA!)

So, what does this mean for our supposedly robust housing recovery? While admitting that this is not the be-all-end-all, these four charts should be enough to give you pause and prompt you to consider whether the mainstream media is giving you the facts or just a heaping pile of MOPE.

If you're going to build a house, an apartment complex or an office building, you need to acquire a number of things. Most of the process is summarized quite neatly by Thornton Mellon in the clip below:

For the purposes of this discussion, however, let's keep it simple. For our house, we'll need lots of lumber for construction, copper for wiring and plumbing, aluminum for all the HVAC stuff and steel for the support columns and crossbeams. Again, price is a function of supply and demand so one might expect that a "robust" housing sector would be causing increased demand for these raw materials. One might expect that but one would be wrong.

Let's see, how's that lumber market doing?

And I think we all know that ole DrC hasn't been doing too well, either...

Uh-oh. Zero for two. Maybe aluminum and steel are faring better? Nope.

Ahh, but what do I know. I'm just a dope with a MacBook (that's for Turdle ). But it sure looks to me that there isn't much of a housing recovery going on. And if there isn't a housing recovery, then the U.S. economy isn't getting any better. And if the U.S. economy isn't getting any better, then tax revenues won't be increasing. And if tax revenues won't be increasing, then the federal deficit won't be falling. And if the deficit isn't falling, then the Fed will have to keep propping up the bond market. And if the Fed has to continue propping up the bond market, the idea of them "tapering" is simple nonsense. And if tapering is nonsense, explain to me why the metals are once again falling this week.

Well, the past three days, it's all started in London. I think I recall that Ranting Andy has a term for this action but I can't remember what it is. What I do know is that when the selling starts at 2:00 am New York time and carries on until about 7:00 am New York time, the selling is originating in London. And who's in London? Just the bullion banks, that's all, doing their dirty deeds to slant the market in the thin, pre-Comex trading, trying to set the tone for the spec momo HFT money to come charging in at the 8:20 EDT Comex open. It's not complicated and it's all right here for everyone to see:

For today, at least, their efforts have been thwarted by all the crappy economic news and we've got a bit of a bounce on our hands. (That hat is still looking tasty, though.) Maybe, just maybe, we're getting a double bottom painted onto the charts? We'll see. Time will tell.

One last thing to discuss today. You know, back in the day, over two years ago when silver was soaring, there was a lot of talk about Comex defaults and commercial signal failures. I have to admit being sucked in a bit by this back then. Obviously, it didn't happen and I've since been very wary of this kind of talk. Again, if we've learned anything these past three years or so its that the primary power held by TPTB is the power to postpone the inevitable. That said, the Comex gold inventory numbers are really beginning to capture my attention on a daily basis.

We discussed this a bit yesterday but it's worth going over again today. After JPM reclassified another 160,000 ounces of gold from Registered (able to be used to for contract delivery) to Eligible (not ready for delivery), the TOTAL Comex registered inventory fell again yesterday and it now stands at just 1,676,000 troy ounces or about 52 metric tonnes.

Recall that every Comex gold contract is for 100 ounces. This means that the Comex registered vaults only have enough gold on hand to physically settle just 16,760 contracts. Big deal, you say. So what, you mutter. And you may be right. Most likely, The Shell Game & Charade will continue through the clever reclassification of more than enough rehypothecated gold from Eligible to Registered. OK, maybe. But chew on this for a minute.

The first "delivery" month for gold this year was February. That month, the total number of contracts standing for delivery totaled more than 13,000. This was somewhat odd in that that was nearly more than August, October and December of 2012 combined. That got my attention. Then, when April delivery rolled around, just 6,600 initially stood for delivery. Crisis passed, right? February was just a one-off. An outlier. Uhhh, nope. Over the course of the month, money continued to flow into the April contract for immediate delivery. These buyers were ponying up 100% margin and "jumping the queue" to some extent in that they were seemingly unwilling to wait for June. In the end, when it was all said and done, the Comex ended up delivering to 11,632 contracts in April.

And now here we come toward June. First Notice Day for the June contract is two weeks from tomorrow, the 31st. Again, on that day, the June13 stops trading and all contract holders must put up 100% margin in order to indicate their intent to take delivery. As of yesterday, the total open interest in the June contract was still 200,477. No doubt the vast majority of these are paper traders who, as we approach the end of this month, will sell or cover and roll into August. However, some will hold, intent upon taking delivery. (Maybe if you're Shanghai and you're currently completely cleaned out of gold in your vaults, you might take delivery of a few contracts? Hey, a guy can hope, can't he?) Of course, the question is, how many?

Again, as of this moment, The Comex only has enough Registered gold to settle 16,760 contracts. For some perspective, when we were 11 days out from FND for the April contract, the OI for April was 196,135. When we were 11 days out for the Feb13, the OI was 200,441. So, having the current June OI stand at 200,477 tells us very little. However, we must watch this very closely in the days ahead. Let's keep an eye on Comex vault changes and compare that to the daily drawdown of June open interest.

OK, that's all for today. Once again I plead with you to keep the faith and stand defiant. The laws of supply and demand are currently impacting paper metal which, in turn, impact the price of physical metal, too. This cannot and will not last forever. Hang in there.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Halfheartedhamster TF
May 16, 2013 - 3:32pm


Oh brother! Your post isnt an example of the truly crazy (examples of which I listed in the original post and so far all the responses have avoided commenting on in favor of their defense of various strawmen) but it is an example of the kind of excitability and goofy suspicion that leads to utterly wrong conclusions. This is a relatively harmless fault when misjudging a random guy on the internet but a real problem that costs real money when these habits of mind are directed toward investment analysis.

1. I have explained several times now why I have a new screen name. I have never made an attempt to hide this and even pointed it out to mr fix in my first post to him under my new name so he would be aware of my posting history. It has never been a dark, nefarious secret.

2. I do not state I work for the Perth mint. Perhaps it was a little unclear but I was providing QUOTES from Mish Shedlock and some guy who does work for the Perth mint in my attempt to show that the increase in premiums was not the huge deal everyone was making it out to be. The last couple days are just more evidence that everyone in their desperate search for good news is making a mountain out of a molehill over the slight increase in premiums.

Someone pm'd me the other night asking why I had changed my name and with his permission I will gladly post the entire exchange. I am not hiding anything.

Its this silly leaping to conclusions that transforms just a regular PM investor who is annoyed with the weirdos who inhabit a site he reads into a shifty, secretive operator very likely in the employ of unnamed coordinated forces who dont want anyone talking about the increase in coin premiums.

Again, oh, brother.

May 16, 2013 - 3:40pm

It sure looks to me like gold will be . . .

called upon and used to save the world banking system and governments, by monetizing the debt.

Right now, the U.S. debt is some $16Trillion, not counting future payments to program recipients (SS, Medicare, etc.). The 8100 (250,000,000 oz) tons of gold we supposedly have are valued at $325 billion using current gold price of say, $1300/oz.

But, if gold is revalued to $6500/oz., voila' the debt is counterbalanced by an equal amount of gold reserves.

So, if we need to cover future SS/Medicare/ObamaCare costs of $200 trillion, we need a gold price of $81,250/oz.

We'll have enough assets on the shelf to pay out SS for a few generations!

Gold could be a very useful tool . . .


Before any trolls jump up to call me a crazy tin-foil hatter for telling all the innocents here that gold will be at $80,000/oz. tomorrow, and leading them to slaughter, that's not what I am saying.

I am saying that governments/bankers own gold, and that gold could be put to use to restart the global economic system. I DO think that gold will be revalued somewhere between $6500 and $81,000/oz., though!

May 16, 2013 - 3:48pm

summer gold revaluation??

You'd think they might have let the Bank of England in on the secret. Special relationship and all that.

With a mere 310 tons of the yellow stuff (16% of Forex) this island might not come off so well.

Southern Cross
May 16, 2013 - 3:58pm

National ID Grab - Includes Everyone Fingerprinted

Dr. Ron Paul leading The Opposition. Sign Petition below.

Will eventually track the movement of every person in America.

This a huge, huge power grab to enslave us all.

Please watch video and sign Dr. Ron Pauls Petition

(petition) -

(video) -

May 16, 2013 - 4:06pm

Hey! What's going on!

4 Non Blondes - What's Up

We know.

That's all that matters friends.

Love ya all!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PM Believer
May 16, 2013 - 4:10pm

QE to Infinity

Real good advice. I do not post often but I am in the same situation as Stock wondering if I did the right thing.

Thanks for that

hsofiak Stock_Canines
May 16, 2013 - 4:11pm

Why? @ Stock_Canines

I'm in the same boat as you. While walking today I was thinking: Why have good investment decisions turned out badly? I've read several "Austrian Economic" texts, followed the logic of sound money, can't for the life of me figure out what Keynes was saying, see fractional reserve banking as a fraud, recognize the incessant creation of purchasing credits, and scared to death of investing in the likes of AMZN. Had I stayed invested in traditional equities along traditional lines I would be sitting pretty today. Meanwhile, my PM stocks are getting clobbered day after day. SLW's ROA and ROE are positive and far exceed that of AMZN but AMZN trades somewhere in the neighborhood of 80x forward earnings while SLW languishes around 7. If the market is always right then there may be aspects of this world that I am not capable of seeing. Or, the market will be right and we just have to wait for it to notice. It took a long time for the obvious housing bubble to burst and the conductors of this "market" seem to be able to as Turd says, keep the ball rolling long after one would think it would stop. Why ... because those driving the market have the firepower to prevail, at least for now. But, as the last few years have passed, the market related news items get more and more outlandish. First it was bail outs and QE, then bail-in, now abenomics and 7 or 8 sigma moves in PM prices. We are either clueless, or slowly, the cookie is crumbling. Patience ..... there is no being late when the cookie crumbles.

May 16, 2013 - 4:13pm

@QE to infinity

All fair and well reasoned points, and I agree. My point, although perhaps clouded through palatable anxiety, was a question of is the thesis of investing in gold and silver and mining shares inherently faulty and it would be best to liquidate now, even at a loss, then to hold for lower and lower prices. If in two years, the HUI is at 125, gold at 980, and silver at 17, then wouldn't it be better to sell now. The question of course is where would you park the money. I do have a mortgage, so it would it be better to sell now and pay off the mortgage. I guess one could argue that at some point in the future these assets should be higher in price than today, but that could be said for any asset. I am holding on. I just want to make sure I don't blindly follow along if the thesis is proofing to be wrong.

May 16, 2013 - 4:14pm

Oh brother

Perhaps you'd like to reword this then? Maybe be a little more precise with your quotation marks?

This needs to be repeated again

Submitted by AgAuthaChristie on May 1, 2013 - 12:18pm.

Thanks victori.

"The "real" price of gold isn't what you pay for a 1oz coin on eBay. As Mish says "Premiums on small denomination coins is not the same a general premium on physical gold itself." But don't take his or my word for it, here's what Jim Sinclair says:

"For many retail investors around the world they are dialed into the paper market in various exchanges. The second market is a small one, but popular among retail investors, and that’s your corner or even major coin dealers. But neither of those are in fact the real gold market, which is the cash market for gold. This is the cash market for 400 ounce deliverable fine gold bars. That represents the true price of the market on any given day. ... for the physical market, not the coin dealers, but the real market, the 400 ounce deliverable market and Asian type settlement ..."

So what is going on in this real market? Well, don't look to Jim Willie who thinks that "those who purchase metals in bulk are having to pay $2000 or more an ounce for gold in the Asian markets". I work for the Perth Mint and we sell tonnes and tonnes of gold kilo bars into Asia every week and we'd be lucky to get a few dollars of premium above the so-called fake paper spot price. That tells me there isn't any stress in the wholesale markets. So COMEX and LBMA aren't going to be failing any time soon."

The Watchman
May 16, 2013 - 4:16pm
QE to infinity
May 16, 2013 - 4:17pm

@ Stock_Canines

just trying to understand why my investment thesis has blown up in my face. Wife not too happy these days, and I am feeling a tad jaded.

What exactly was your investment thesis? If it wasn't to put everything into PMs, including the money you need in the short-term, having to sell now, then how has it "blown" in your face? Did your ounces get smaller? Number of mining shares got reduced?

I guess, you are feeling jaded because the hardest part of the "Be right and sit tight" that another poster mentioned earlier, is sitting tight.

Me and you are not some kind of financial geniuses, or powerful insiders, able to jump in and out of investment classes on short term basis, timing our trades perfectly to capture the gains and avoid losses. I know if I try that, I'll destroy myself financially.

If we are not trading, than we must park our wealth in some asset classes(es) at least on a medium term basis. Unless we sit entirely in cash, our net worth has to fluctuate, as market prices fluctuate. And are we supposed to always agonise over these fluctuations? Even if we sat entirely in cash, depending on which currency the cash is in, it will fluctuate against other currencies. So, again, no peace and just constant worry about the value of our savings?

Yes, in hindsight it would have been better to buy PMs now rather than in the last couple of years. Unless we were large depositors who got "bailed-in" in Cypress. It would have been a lot better for them to have PMs outside the banking system than money in it.

And who knows where the hammer will fall next? Keeping large amounts of cash under mattress is not really a great solution either.

So I'd say, as it's impossible now to go back in time, invest our money in the stock market and on deposit in the banks that have not (yet) got Cypressed, and now trade in in for PMs, at least it's good we still have our stacks, with the same ounces (and number of mining shares, for those who hold miners), that we haven't lost it permanently in some MFglobal or "bail-in".

The key, though, is sitting tight. Which requires sufficient amount of fiat to meet ours and our families' immediate needs without having to sell our investments when they are down.

If you don't have to sell, I'd suggest, chill out, relax and stop worrying so much about your dollar-measured net worth. Maybe stop following the stop prices for a while, concentrate on something else, like growing a garden or learning a new skill, or something useful.

Katie Rose
May 16, 2013 - 4:19pm

Katie Rose's New Paradigm

The New Paradigm

Submitted by Mr Morden on May 16, 2013 - 12:23pm

The old Golden Rule was: "He who has the gold, makes the rules."

The coming Golden Rule will be: "He who holds the gold, makes the rules."

Standby for paradigm shift.


There is another paradigm shift happening that very few people know about. It is the Obama Administration's war on the family farm. And this war is vicious and ongoing.

New rules and regulations make it unlawful for children to be handling livestock without a parent present. Activities that have been standard for thousands of years are now illegal. And just this week, another new Reg. Everyone driving farm machinery must have a heavy equipment driver's license. It is now illegal for children to milk goats or cows without a parent present. It is now illegal for teen age boys to drive farm equipment on their own farms.

My sister graduated in Pomology (fruit tree science) from Cal Poly. She has stayed in touch with friends who are farming in CA. This last weekend she went berserk after a conversation with one of her old friends. The gist of the conversation was that between the Feds and the State Government, it is going to be impossible to farm in CA. There are so many rules on fertilizer use and how far down the fertilizer is allowed, with HUGE fines accompanying the rules, that she said that the war on farmers in CA is over. Dairy farmers will cease to exist. They are not allowed to spread their cow manure on their fields.

The farmers have lost. The richest agricultural area in the world has been destroyed by judicial and regulatory orders. She said many of the rules were passed during Daddy Bush's administration with an implementation date far in the future. The future has arrived.

So I would like to propose another new paradigm shift. It's not clever sounding, but it is the simple truth.

She who has the goats or a dairy cow has milk for her children.

She who has a garden and knows how to store the excess food for winter's use has food for her family.

She who shops frequently for groceries will go hungry, along with her family.

She who is too lazy to learn the skills of her Grand Mother and Great Grand Mother is foolish, indeed.

May 16, 2013 - 4:50pm

Audacious MOPE

since that is the topic of day, one thing should be clearly understood,

There is no real interest by this author to sit idly by and wait for the bullion banks to be over run, as the country's ruination is at stake, here and now, and those stakes are just way to high, to just wait it out, at least for one, and can not in good conscience just wait. Action is required by those able. I am able. We must all rally to our standard of our cause, through activity, to save the country. The attack plan has been more or less completed, with 1000s hour spent, if not 13 years of eye balling, uselessly, as a first very rough draft is completed, and now turning to funding the same. My friends, you should know who is the target by now. The plan is believed immanently viable and is being reviewed by one of our own, 6m$ in 6mo from lift off, and the target will go down fast and hard, as victory and freedom is won for all, so help me GOD. Sing along my friends, sing along, its the least you can do for freedom.

change "northern" to "Wall Street"; "Southern" to "Freedom"

change "confederacy" to "Conflicted Nation"; and sing along my friends.

The Bonnie Blue Flag - Gods and Generals
The Watchman
May 16, 2013 - 4:50pm

TRUTH-From Jesse:

The stock, bond, and commodity markets are a joke. The Banking System resembles a control fraud.

The manipulation of the metals, equity, and credit markets is approaching a financial war crime, it is so contemptible. Although I am sure it will have its bureaucratic defenders.

At long last, they have no shame.

Another crisis is coming. They know it is coming, and are attempting to cover it up while they make themselves and their patrons comfortable. They are trying to stifle all alarms and indicators to the contrary.

The market is whatever we say it is, indeed. And this time it will be worse.

I am sorry to speak so bluntly. I keep trying to maintain some optimism, but these jokers are barking at the moon. This disconnect between reality and the official story is becoming almost unbelievable.

May 16, 2013 - 4:56pm


I am sorry to speak so bluntly. I keep trying to maintain some optimism, but these jokers are barking at the moon. This disconnect between reality and the official story is becoming almost unbelievable.

And yet, you believe it.

May 16, 2013 - 4:57pm

It is obvious who the real

It is obvious who the real trolls are, they are the ones who launch ad hominem attacks, they are the ones who try and censure anything which falls outside their cultish behaviour.

I have been holding silver now for over 2 years and clearly am not foolish enough to sell at these prices but i have grown wise to the outlandish comments made about silver too. Historical comments have been take whole heartedly to portray a picture which is misleading to the end user i.e. the difference between paper silver with the expectation to deliver vs simply a cash settlement bet.

The markets ran on the expectation of QE but when QE arrived it backfired, it has back fired because the economy is contracting and b the banks and other financial institutions were looking for a speculative make fast money in an extortionate amounts and so the capital has flowed into the stock market.

I read people's point of view as being lambasted and derided as lies when the figures cited are from the silver institute. I have read that geologists seemingly know less about silver than Sprott. It seems that to suggest that the motives for a billionaire aren't necessarily for the good of anyone but themselves is never factored into this.

I have watched the flames of hype fan high into the sky any day where premiums have risen and dampen down with barely a word of retraction when silver premiums have subsequently fallen. I have spoken to directors of major wholesalers who tell me that there is no problem with supply, the bottle neck appears in the minting process.

I have read that a mania stage will arrive but most of my friends and family are barely putting food on the table, barely meeting the bills, which must therefore suggest that the ordinary public can be forgotten about and instead hope and expectation comes from the middle rung of the middle class. However the middle class have a memory of the great silver bubble in the 80's and saw silver blow up in 2011.

It is widely acknowledged that to cite 50 dollar silver in the 80's and then apply inflation compounded since then to arrive at what supposedly should be fair value, is absolute baloney since the level of manipulation was so great (on the upside of silver).

I read ridiculous statements that silver should be 6000 per ounce by now and yet anyone with any critical reasoning would recognise that industrial demand would collapse overnight since the costs incurred in production would be astronomical. Let's see ....$22 silver now, to 6000....that's a 272 fold increase and yet people making these statements are actually given even a modicum of credibility.

I recall that in 2008 "you can't buy silver for 8 dollars anywhere, it's a 75% premium". Of course there was no 75% premium, as there are many costs associated with the final product, the mining, minting, distribution and so forth. Supposedly now of course there have been stories about 6 dollar over spot junk silver, well if that's true, then whoever buys it is getting majorly ripped off.

Here in the ol UK I see bullionbypost is often referenced to show hey look no silver, yet I am scanning through and can see all is available except for china panda's and maple leafs. So much for a major not being able to source them. When this post was originally referenced I suggested then that demand had taken the retailer aback and indeed, demand has increased but it's not overwhelming the silver market.

As for jim willie he needs to be called out to account for his claims too most notably his claims about the huge amount being paid over spot price. Is this guy kidding me? I can buy 10kg of gold for just over 1% premium if I had the money to. True, I am limited to 10 of these said bars every 24 hours, but in the course of a week I could acquire another 60kg.

I am so jaded by this bs

May 16, 2013 - 4:59pm

Best of Breed

pretty much the best of the best in the DC crowd.


Pretty damned sad, when these Guys typify the overpaid so called civil servants.

Some actually expect to be addressed as Honorable [insert surname here] , I guess its better to deserve Honor and not receive it, than to receive Honor and not deserve it.

May 16, 2013 - 5:02pm

ebay Bargains

Every once in a while bargains can be found. I was lucky recently...

I bought three batches of 90% silver US coins from one dealer over two nights

2 oz for $44 - 2 oz for $40 - 4 oz for $80 - 1 $5 shipping charge ... total 8 0z for $169 = under spot

When I got the coins ... 28 dimes, 25 quarters, 12 halves, 1 silver dollar = total $16.05 face = @ 10x face

Hopefully, I can find and win similar

The Watchman
May 16, 2013 - 5:04pm
May 16, 2013 - 5:04pm

Yes.  We are all a bunch of

Yes. We are all a bunch of Branch Davidians howling at the moon. Now GTFO. There is not one single person on the entire planet holding you guys here. Go share your amazing insights with people who are willing to hear them, rather than plastering people's screens with shit like:

daveyboy is on your ignore list. Click here to view this post.


NonoverlappingM... is on your ignore list. Click here to view this post.

May 16, 2013 - 5:08pm

More details on Scout Jamboree in July

@SouthernCross -- additional details in MSM available (emphasis mine):

"CHARLESTON, W.Va. - Charleston Area Medical Center's hospitals are preparing for an active shooter situation, widespread infections and trauma cases simultaneously during an emergency response exercise Thursday.

Officials hope the drill will prepare staff for emergencies that could arise when thousands of people flood into the area for the Boy Scouts of America Jamboree, which will be held July 15 to 24 in Fayette and Raleigh counties."

- covering all the bases, eh? It is mildly interesting that the Jamboree was not previously considered a hotbed of potential massive emergencies at any time during the last 100 years or so...

But wait, it gets better:

"Thousands of out-of-staters are expected to fly in and out of the Raleigh County Memorial Airport this summer, and with all that traffic envisioned, the timing seems perfect to give the virtual tower concept a trial run.

That was the consensus Tuesday of Airport Manager Tom Cochran and the scientist behind the idea, Dr. David Byers, senior development professional for Quadrex Aviation LLC, based in Melbourne, Fla.

Unless rain spoils the plan, the test will be conducted July 17-18 during the Boy Scouts Jamboree in nearby Fayette County. [...] Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Rep. Nick Rahall, both D-W.Va., are on record in support of the concept of a computer-driven control system as opposed to building a permanent tower occupied by human traffic directors. [...] Besides commercial aircraft, the airport also promises to be a beehive of military activity, with C-130s arriving and leaving in conjunction with the jamboree at Glen Jean. Cochran said nine Blackhawk helicopters will be parked at the airport for a variety of maneuvers, including the National Guard’s role in a planned mock evacuation drill at the Scouting complex."

The organizers insist that the 'virtual tower' is purely for testing/info purposes, "since the test doesn’t entail providing advisories to any incoming or outgoing pilots". Sure, only to the air traffic controllers who ARE providing advisories to said pilots. What could POSSIBLY go wrong?

The Watchman
May 16, 2013 - 5:11pm

GLD Continues to be DRAINED-5.71 Tonnes GONE



Value US$46,226,678,769.31

May 16, 2013 - 5:14pm
May 16, 2013 - 5:14pm



There are only 3 on my ignore list. you just posted comments from two of them. No I cannot see them. (comments). I have no idea why davyboy is on my list (he must have really pissed me off in the past) or how long he has been on it. I guess he is consistent whoever he is.

QE to infinity
May 16, 2013 - 5:21pm

@ Stock_Canines

I am glad you aren't going to sell at the bottom :) Even if you were to sell some at some stage, at least it would be better to sell into a rally, not when the sentiment is so low.

I am not going to sell anything now, but will try to take a little bit of profit when there is profit to take, on some of the miners, going to stick with the bulk of my PMs and miners for the long term.

Rather than selling PMs, I am going to build up some cash for future investment opportunities, and diversify somewhat into other investments.

The problem with selling the bulk of one's PMs now in the hope of future price declines - what if these declines don't come? And even if they do, will we be able to buy aggressively then? The further PMs fall, the louder the cries "gold is dead, gold is in the bear market, bull market in gold is dead, gold is going to $900/silver is going to $15" etc, etc. Suppose gold and silver did drop to those levels, would we be able to buy then? Would the supply still be available, with reasonable premiums, and, even more importantly, would we be able to bring ourselves to buy? At that stage gold will be going to $300, silver to $5, at least the noise telling us so will be deafening. And should gold and silver reach those levels, they'll surely be going to below $100/$1. And if they were $1/$0.01, it would be even more dangerous to buy them, as they'll be going to zero, and we can lose all our money!

My point is, the lower the PMs drop, the lower the sentiment will be, and the harder it will be to buy. And at some stage they'll begin to rally in earnest, and those who were holding out for lower and lower, and yet lower prices will be left behind.

So a better strategy for me personally is to leave the bulk of my PM investments alone, while using new money to diversify. If the system wipes out the money I will use to diversify, at least I'll have my PMs left. If the PMs take off to the moon in the meantime, so much the better. If they don't, at least I'll have them as insurance, and I'll also have built other investments as well. Having little or no PMs is too risky in my opinion.

Halfheartedhamster TF
May 16, 2013 - 5:22pm


It looks like I left the leading quotation marks off the second quote. I am not going to bother to review the original exchange of posts and dont even remember why I was thanking Victori, but I feel certain that for those that do they will see it is quite clear that I am re quoting a previous quote and not trying to masquerade as an official of the Perth Mint.

It goes to my point though. If you can pull a single post out of context where the second quotation is missing its leading quotation marks but not its ending marks, and conclude from it that it is quite possible the author is some kind of agent provocateur, you are operating under some kind of hair trigger mental criteria in this regard that serves you poorly in arriving at the truth of the matter and by extension other far more important matters. Simply stated, your suspicions are false.

At least you have dropped the charge that my second screen name is some kind of carefully arranged subterfuge.

May 16, 2013 - 5:22pm

I know I said I wouldn't but I can't help myself

4:17 Kitco

Silver Lease Rates
May 15 2013 Change
1M 0.1926% +0.0000
2M 0.2294% -0.0002
3M 0.2685% -0.0003
6M 0.4151% -0.0031
1Y 0.6842% -0.0058

But here is a saved gif of the chart (so it won't update when it changes, again)

Expect an edit in a few minutes.


Edit (4:22)

Silver Lease Rates
May 16 2013 Change
1M -0.3118% -0.5045
2M -0.2755% -0.5050
3M -0.2459% -0.5145
6M -0.1001% -0.5153
1Y 0.1399% -0.5444

This would be funny if it wasn't so sad.


Gold Dog
May 16, 2013 - 5:24pm

Contest Update!!

Details of the upcoming Riff-Raffle, which will blow the lid off of my stupid five round BS will be coming out Sunday afternoon.

Feeling a little blue----The Riff-Raffle will change all of that!

Stack a little light- Get in on the Riff-Raffle!

Low T?- See your doctor.

This one helps everybody!

I do hope you are getting a little should be!

Now off to cocktails!

Your friend,


ancientmoney The Watchman
May 16, 2013 - 5:26pm

@The Watchman re: Jesse and truth . . .

"The manipulation of the metals, equity, and credit markets is approaching a financial war crime, it is so contemptible. Although I am sure it will have its bureaucratic defenders."


I have been watching the PMs closely for about 14 years now, after reading about Austrian economics vs. the bastardized Keynesian system now, and for many years, in vogue.

The manipulation has taken various forms, types and size over those years, sometimes combining types.

However, the "system" (legal and monetary) does not see them as manipulation, but rather, as institutionalized "coping" with the fact that fiat currencies all fall to their intrinsic value of zero at some point.

The CFTC even laid down a bit of law sometime prior to MayDay 2011, during which time silver was extremely near it previous all-time 1980's high of $50/oz. and threatening, based on TA of the time, to shoot to $100 post-haste.

That's when the CFTC realized the system bigger than itself was in jeopardy of quick-death syndrome.

JPM was set free to pummel the PMs to submission, especially silver. Margins were increased on COMEX several times, further dissuading those suffering new losses to double-down on the come, and hang tight on silver.

As you know, the "system" is set up to allow these very coping mechanisms, otherwise known as manipulations, to occur as needed to protect the fiat banking system.

While "illegal" by any count or court, no regulator dare stand in the way. This is war, and all is fair in love and war. ALL IS FAIR IN LOVE AND WAR.

Since MayDay 2011, the CFTC removed all restraints from the TBTF bankers, and nobody cares what level of blatant manhandling of PMs must happen to keep the system afloat. In many ways, we are all beneficiaries of this; who knows how many would have died in the riots and chaos of a failed system--not just monetary, but water, food distribution, police, etc.

Certainly the govt. is preparing for something, soon. They have been building up impregnable defenses, buying armored vehicles, machine guns and ammo like there's no tomorrow.

The system they have been protecting is dying--and they know it. All the manueverings til Cyprus were designed as rear-guard fighting to protect the retreat from the current system.

Cyprus was the bell-toll to announce to the big money people of the impending change. That bell has been answered. Gold (phyzz) is disappearing. Paper is selling into oblivion, as the prices are telling us.

Many new signs are popping up, telling us that gold will be back in play very soon, in a bigger way than has been the case for at least 40 years.

Don't let anyone talk or MOPE you into letting loose of it now!

May 16, 2013 - 5:27pm

What happened to the Cyprus gold?

Not a peep about it for weeks now other than the last, "Cyprus plans to sell some of its gold for the bailout".

Perhaps there really is no Cyprus gold and it's been sold so many times over, it's gone forever.

Now, msm wouldn't want that to leak out to the financial public would they? Just let the story quietly die in the echo chambers of silence.


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