A Broader Perspective

525
Tue, May 14, 2013 - 11:37am

Time is short but I do have something interesting for you to consider today.

Look, there's a lot going on that will make tomorrow's gold (and silver) "market" different from yesterday's. Regardless, I still believe it's useful to look at yesterday's market in order to forecast where we might be going based upon where we have been.

Today, we're going to look at the Continuous Commodity Index. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous_Commodity_Index. Here's a little background info from the Wiki page:

"The 17 components of the CCI are continuously rebalanced to maintain the equal weight of 5.88%. Since CCI components are equally weighted, they therefore distribute evenly into the major sectors: Energy 17.65%, Metals 23.53%, Softs 29.41% and Agriculture 29.41%. While other commodity indices may overweight in certain sectors (e.g. Energy), the CCI provides exposure to all four commodity subgroups."

So, first, let's look at a 25-year chart. Some of you may not even have been alive at the start of this chart. Personally, I was just graduating from college and chasing my then-sweetheart to San Francisco. (That's an interesting story but we'll save it for another day.) The point is: This chart covers a lot of ground and time. Therefore, it is to be respected.

Notice that for the first half of the chart, the action is sideways. From 1988 to 2002, the index fluctuated in roughly a 50-point range. Though there was some action in individual commodities from time to time, overall the sector was a real yawner. The sideways action actually goes back even further, to the early 1980s, when interest rates were raised to choke the money supply and curb inflation. So, for roughly 20 years, commodities in general sucked.

Then what happened? The debt-induced easy growth of the 90's finally popped in 2001 and it has been off to the races for commodities ever since. Sure there have been pauses and corrections along the way but there also been periods of blowoff, parabolic rallies, too. In the end, though, the trend has remained. Here, see for yourself:

So now let's look a little closer. On the five-year, weekly chart below, you can see where we currently stand. Of course, I've tried to draw the trendline as accurately as possible but it's impossible to show exactly where it currently lays. Needless to say though, we're pretty much right on top of it. So there are three things to consider:

  1. First and foremost, is this 11 year bull market in commodities over? Did commodities go sideways for 20 years only to have a bull market end after just 10 years? Look at it another way...Have the fundamental conditions which prompted this bull market changed? Are the Fed and other central banks about to embark on a Volcker-esque tightening spree?
  2. Could commodities in general (and, by extension, gold and silver) bounce and rally right here and right now, just like they did the on the last two occasions they encountered the main trendline in late 2008 and mid 2012?
  3. Are commodities about to over-shoot again, similar to the circled area on the monthly chart above? If so, could a final drop toward 500 or even 475 be in the cards? IF that were to happen, what would be the short-term impact on the price of gold? Of silver? Would you finally capitulate/panic and sell or will you rely on your answers to the questions posed in point #1 above?

OK, gotta stop there but that should give you plenty to think about and discuss for a while. Have a great day and let's hope that CIGA BoPolny/BoPelini/BoDiddley/BoJackson is proven correct.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

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SilverSurfers
Jun 10, 2013 - 8:30am

Songs

Neil Young - Rockin' In The Free World
The Babys - Isn't It Time
SilverSurfers
Jun 10, 2013 - 6:42am

Punch Line

President Ronald Reagan Clip: "Tear Down This Wall"
Video unavailable
SilverSurfers
Jun 9, 2013 - 7:12am

Video

Videos are generally exception excited utterances to hear say rule, and can be collected for court presentation, limited in number, but key ones can be used, and, TFMR and LMPC gangs, HQ and sharks, can due research to locate the video of interested, for court use, thus, an HQ local means should be established to convert youtube videos for court presentations, and it would seem, VHS cassettes and TV for simple viewing in court, and thus HQ can issue a call for a video youtube cites, generally, the youtube cite url relayed back to HQ, and there converted, or off loaded to a district located video house for making, for latter presentation, modernly simple respective CDs could be made as well, and used for admissions against interest, impeaching witness, instructing the court and attorneys, and proving case in chief.

Thus, proof

Expert Testimony and Declarations

Admissions Against Interests

Video Presentations

Graphics Displays

Examples.

US Atty General letter saying big banks are TBTF TBTJ, showing undue influence. So, a URL cite of his letter

She Head saying client money are used as a hedge, showing client money are used, but impeaching that client money can not be used and maintain price discovery because of collection and dump, showing self centered client hanging and price manipulations. So, a URL cite of a video showing where she said client funds are a hedge.

Easy as Pie

SilverSurfers
Jun 8, 2013 - 6:27pm

Conflict

of interest for JPM to support long position of the FRN, so would naturally suppression bullion, and unlimited naked short is one way to support the FRN, making the FRN more sound for what it is. The dodge of release threads so now go lo go gould is more that likely a dodge, as business connection short gold long FRN.

The Manipulators May Not Be Who You Think

https://winteractionables.com/?p=3308

SilverSurfers
Jun 8, 2013 - 10:34am

Treason

https://twoshortplanksunplugged.blogspot.com/

Friday, 7 June 2013

China’s Gold Reserves: How big is the Elephant in the room?

let’s just add-up what we have so far; World Gold Council (2009).....1,054.1 tonnes
Imports from Hong Kong (2009-13).....3,360 tonnes
China’s Gold production (2009-13).....1,590 tonnes
Foreign Gold swaps (2009-13).....300 tonnes
Total (estimates) Gold Reserves.....6,304.1 tonnes @ End 2013
SilverSurfers
Jun 8, 2013 - 9:37am

Hear Say

exceptions relevant are Excited Utterances, made at the time and recorded, like old news papers, as exceptions to hear say rules, and hence, video of experts get admitted, and hence, in the Secret Word of Gold, and KWN new interviews, AM's public statements can get admitted, especially were the country is in peril, per Holders admission of records, that TBTF TBTJ can not be prosecuted as being to big for the US government to handle, and thus the private sector must step up and answer the call of duty to the country, and only the court can save the country, plus all the other mind screws, and thus, wide latitude given to plainitiff to admit video, of all kinds, selected from the courts education and exposure of defendants self centered greed, hanging of client, treasonous sells, and in house and clients money to rig the bullion space in support of injunctive relief.

SilverSurfers
Jun 7, 2013 - 6:17pm

Note

In equity for injunction

naked sales are inherently a fraud, selling something you dont have

client funds are pooled, contrary to cash on the barrow head in radom buys and sells as legitimate price discovery.

Lack of transparency, into their business operations, yet the FEDs Bank, a pseudo public trust, raises nation wide suspicions of nefarious conducts.

Participates in the enslavement of 50,000,00 on meal tickets as a public trust pseudo US bank.

Sells traitorously to China bullion, America last ditch defense to anarchy if the FRN fails, which is likely giving the current TRAP ZIRP QE Kaplops, known by them.

After any live testimony, or end of a hearing, or start of hearing, REID should be given time for summation remarks, to tie it all together.

SilverSurfers
Jun 7, 2013 - 1:50pm

Help

I will try again. Memory not sure. But I think about April 23, when bullion got bombed, some one put up a video, light blue chart, chart only, cursor flying around, resizing, drawing lines, and it showed the price action, how within minutes, a year production was sold, as the youtube display was just of charts being resized and lined, by someone knowledgeable, giving an explanation by audio only as the cursor moved, and he would zoom in and out. Anyone recall the video, by whom, cite by PM please. PULLLLEASEEEE.

cut and paste, tips, back slapping, sharing the latest head lines, funny angles, BB in drawings droping draws, bullion raw raw, bullion moaning, cool charts, pontifications, funny pics of deer in headlights, screeching about dooms day, posting vids from rocket scientists, projecting totalitarism, calling WWIII, complaining of police state lock down, showing global militarism, quick current news interpretations, and quoting recent chit chat on orange county housewives, are just special and fills the board, and is a great info rush, but this is real stuff. anyone?

Clue: Front Running, Conspiracy in Price Rigging. We talking jail time.

SilverSurfers
Jun 7, 2013 - 5:49am

Seems So

God's Mission in life, for one Wretch. Friday, June 7, 2013 2:24 AM From: "Derrick Michael Reid" To: xxx Christ Soldier xxx

Uncle Pappy, I believe the spirit gave me a mission in life. Dont know if that is part of his grand plan, but it seems God has brought me through life, preparing me over a life time for this. Just a hunch.

Please pump it out as much as can and wish. Yours in Christ, Derrick

This is enough:

USA Strike on the Evil Empire

Posted by Derrick Michael Reid on Thursday, June 06, 2013 10:56:26 AM

If anyone, has a serious bullion, political, and or news connection, send them on, please.

https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/06/03/usa_nova_slang.thtml

https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/05/29/freedom_v_tbtf_tbtj_greedsters.thtml

https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/06/06/usa_strike_on_the_evil_empire.thtml

==

Pressing Buttons as best able, Political, Economic, Bullion, Masonic, Religious, News organizations.

SilverSurfers
Jun 7, 2013 - 4:11am

It

has to be said. Many kudos to the Dark one for welcoming the new ones. Thank You!

Madonna - Vogue
Madonna - Express Yourself
Video unavailable

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