A Broader Perspective

Tue, May 14, 2013 - 11:37am

Time is short but I do have something interesting for you to consider today.

Look, there's a lot going on that will make tomorrow's gold (and silver) "market" different from yesterday's. Regardless, I still believe it's useful to look at yesterday's market in order to forecast where we might be going based upon where we have been.

Today, we're going to look at the Continuous Commodity Index. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous_Commodity_Index. Here's a little background info from the Wiki page:

"The 17 components of the CCI are continuously rebalanced to maintain the equal weight of 5.88%. Since CCI components are equally weighted, they therefore distribute evenly into the major sectors: Energy 17.65%, Metals 23.53%, Softs 29.41% and Agriculture 29.41%. While other commodity indices may overweight in certain sectors (e.g. Energy), the CCI provides exposure to all four commodity subgroups."

So, first, let's look at a 25-year chart. Some of you may not even have been alive at the start of this chart. Personally, I was just graduating from college and chasing my then-sweetheart to San Francisco. (That's an interesting story but we'll save it for another day.) The point is: This chart covers a lot of ground and time. Therefore, it is to be respected.

Notice that for the first half of the chart, the action is sideways. From 1988 to 2002, the index fluctuated in roughly a 50-point range. Though there was some action in individual commodities from time to time, overall the sector was a real yawner. The sideways action actually goes back even further, to the early 1980s, when interest rates were raised to choke the money supply and curb inflation. So, for roughly 20 years, commodities in general sucked.

Then what happened? The debt-induced easy growth of the 90's finally popped in 2001 and it has been off to the races for commodities ever since. Sure there have been pauses and corrections along the way but there also been periods of blowoff, parabolic rallies, too. In the end, though, the trend has remained. Here, see for yourself:

So now let's look a little closer. On the five-year, weekly chart below, you can see where we currently stand. Of course, I've tried to draw the trendline as accurately as possible but it's impossible to show exactly where it currently lays. Needless to say though, we're pretty much right on top of it. So there are three things to consider:

  1. First and foremost, is this 11 year bull market in commodities over? Did commodities go sideways for 20 years only to have a bull market end after just 10 years? Look at it another way...Have the fundamental conditions which prompted this bull market changed? Are the Fed and other central banks about to embark on a Volcker-esque tightening spree?
  2. Could commodities in general (and, by extension, gold and silver) bounce and rally right here and right now, just like they did the on the last two occasions they encountered the main trendline in late 2008 and mid 2012?
  3. Are commodities about to over-shoot again, similar to the circled area on the monthly chart above? If so, could a final drop toward 500 or even 475 be in the cards? IF that were to happen, what would be the short-term impact on the price of gold? Of silver? Would you finally capitulate/panic and sell or will you rely on your answers to the questions posed in point #1 above?

OK, gotta stop there but that should give you plenty to think about and discuss for a while. Have a great day and let's hope that CIGA BoPolny/BoPelini/BoDiddley/BoJackson is proven correct.


About the Author

tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()


Jun 18, 2013 - 12:46pm


The gold cartel is and comprises 15 large bullion banks controlling the bullion space. The attack plan seeks to assassinate the mob boss among them, the king pin in the bullion space. Next, because the plan can be easily replicated, it can be applied to picking off the remainder of them, thereby utterly destroying the gold cartel, liberating bullion, thereby concurrently destroying in turn the FRN and all paper money, thereby liberating those enslaved by paper money, to thus free people world wide and mankind from totalitarian rule. I figure plaintiffs go in with a 13 to 1 advantage, hence, fool proof, derived from proven skills and affects. 6m$ in and 2-5x dollars profits out in about 9 months. That has got to get business types at least looking, I would think. you are asking allot of questions. Its all in the plan. But here is a clue. A chicago firm will be selected and 3 primary litigators interviewed, hired and assigned to the six pack. These three will be given specific tasks. They will appear and examine experts. Mostly though they will be acting as very expensive paralegals on a short leash, and time durations, for the Of Counse Commader. ===

Jun 18, 2013 - 10:23am


movement of cautious and hesitant cows enslaved by enemy wolves, is the initial condition, and so, for the attack, the commander takes lead, and gets the FINANCIER on line, and funding in place, and using the commander but mostly the FINANCIER influence as a face man, persuades initially one or more plaintiff to join the attack, then FIANCIER and joined PLAINTIFFS turn on the remaining hold out PLAINTIFFs to stack up as a ready team, then the FINANCER and PLAINTIFF turn on the experts to persuade them to join the attack, thus completing recruitment of necessary forces, to get the cow heard moving and deployed to become world class heroes. It works given the general cow mentality and yakty yak all talk and no go demeanor of the Secret World of Gold. Well, it aint no secret any more, I got their number.

80's One Hit Wonder #1 - Tommy Tutone - 867-5309/Jenny (1982) RAWHIDE

And some, had the audacity to object to the initial characterization of the Pussy World of Gold. Take it back!!

i'm going to pick a fight Braveheart In Defiance Of The English Tyranny! BRAVO GODS AND GENERALS~Jackson's Speech The Bonnie Blue Flag - Gods and Generals
Jun 18, 2013 - 9:46am


you all think that not paying attention to the most significant ACT in the gold world is largely not paid attention to, by many notables, outside of their regular yakty yak? Just Saying so you all can ponder what that really indicates. For the commander, it was perfect timing for adjustment in the battle plan can be had at a very timely stage of deployment. So, it was a great bit of information, when toe dipping, as advanced recon is important for advanced intel, before the main blow. And as it turns out, that readjustment was actually a huge logistic reducers, for the compact thrust, for the win win, actually. Worked out great.

Upton would be impressed. Attack in depth.


In the 1864 Overland Campaign, Upton led his brigade in the Wilderness, but his greatest contribution was at Spotsylvania Court House, where he developed a new tactic to attack the Confederate breastworks, one that would foreshadow tactics used in the trench warfare of World War I. Upton devised a tactic wherein columns of massed infantry would swiftly assault a small part of the enemy line, without pausing to trade fire, and in doing so attempt to overwhelm the defenders and achieve a breakthrough. The standard infantry assault employed a wide battle line advancing more slowly, firing at the enemy as it moved forward. On May 10, 1864, Upton led twelve regiments in such an assault against the Confederate's Mule Shoe salient. His tactics worked and his command penetrated to the center of the Mule Shoe, but they were left unsupported and forced to withdraw in the face of enemy artillery and mounting reinforcements. Upton was wounded in the attack, but was promoted to brigadier general on May 12. On that same day, Maj. Gen. Winfield S. Hancock adapted Upton's columnar assault tactic to the entire II Corps to break through the Mule Shoe. Due to his wounds, Upton was forced to retire to Washington, D.C., but was back in command to participate in the early stages of the Siege of Petersburg.[5]

Attack in Depth for the power punch to break their front lines, with reduced logistics, while getting the for forcing moving into attack position and with advance MOPE for the mind screws, with fanned out plaintiffs covering more basis and options for damage proof and irreparable harm proof, misdirecting the enemy and thinning the enemy front lines. What a score, with advanced recon. So, you stack up the plaintiffs for the in depth focused punch led by proximal and distal counsel, then primary counsel brings up the front line primary experts for the general assault as flank support of and doubling of the focused punch, and then with a break of enemy lines, you throw in the secondary experts led by the primary counsel to start the route, and when with route is in full swing, you throw in the tertiary experts led by primary counsel to route in detail, and then clean up with the vicious ruthless Of Counsel on cross examination of defendant's experts, for the route in detail and the sweep of enemy positions, showing no mercy and no pity, taking no prisoners, of under the commander in charge and on sceen directing the action. The enemy is toast!

Jun 18, 2013 - 4:32am


comment regarding the GATA boys. They may be partially successful in obtaining redacted FOI documents, partially believed by some, noticed by few, but who really cares, and what results would be really obtained thereby, as the FOI is perceived as generally another dead end with out any real results. The bullion market as a whole already knows the story, as turd so ample explained. Nothing further by FOI is needed to rock JPMs world. I suppose its the engineer mind to put product out the door, achieving real concrete tangible immediate results, that is in play on this side. But who am I to tell them what to do, as they can spend their time and resources as they deem fit. I can only advise, offer services, and seek those tangible results.

Thank you turd, but some question then. If funding is obtained, will you then put them on? If a funding conference is had, will you attend. You have not been keeping up, but more importantly, you have not seen a polish version of the plan as yet, as that is still at least a week away. You and whats his name are similarly disposed, hesitate and cautious, but I have the time, and drive, and the skills, and can put it all together, and will not stop. Now, it would be a big step, and measures of protecting the complainants are well devised so that the cross-crap cant hurt that much, being way ahead of folks there, remember, shady at best.

But, in a week or so, will you at least review the plan, and indicate then a willingness to attend a funding conference with an eye to going global as a huge MEGA ROCK STAR with a huge pot of gold upon landing the fish in the boat?

Jun 18, 2013 - 4:30am

China is dropping the price,

China is dropping the price, to help the gold cartel pick it up on the cheap and then sell as it goes back up on the drift, for profit to open arms China. ssssshhhh, dont blow their cover, its called a treasonous conspiracy, so dont tell anyone, its a top trading secret, so, mums the word!! Chinese market use to be like flat landers, (thats what we call them, in the hiterlands), sure somed spikes up and spikes, like as only about 2 monhts ago, but over the past three weeks, china has drifted lower going into London. Oh yeah, like want bullion lower, in that control economy, because they got all that new hoard? Come on. The new normal play, with NY crimex running low on physical, is, in action right before your eyes. When was the time, the China market drifted UP going into london. :0

Jun 18, 2013 - 4:23am


you are asking allot of questions. Its all in the plan. But here is a clue. A chicago firm will be selected and 3 primary litigators interviewed, hired and assigned to the six pack. These three will be given specific tasks. They will appear and examine experts. Mostly though they will be acting as very expensive paralegals on a short leash, and time durations, for the master mind, all five of them. LOL!!!! Damn it, its 1am, and this is wake up, but have not gone down, at all, so going doing down now, sleeping is like a beating frequency, its rolls through all 24 hours. oh well, later folks, later rex.

At a reasonable rate of about 1800/hr x about 2000 hours, over the last several months, that is about 3.6 million, where should I send the bill? LOL.

Heart out weighs skin, any day of the week.

Current plans calls out

1000/hr for primary litigators

200/hr for proximal and distal attorney

100/hr for guess who, which Im sure will be mostly at no charge pro bono to keep it all on track. So, yours is not in this for the loot. Taking down the FRN is where its at, you know, freeing mankind stuff.

I figure plaintiffs go in with a 13 to 1 advantage, hence, fool proof, derived from proven skills and affects.

Jun 18, 2013 - 3:04am


JPM is basically on all fours when it come to literal compliance with trading laws, and can thus hide behide the law for conventional suits. They can hide internal operation in believed compliant. They can hide behind market signals during trading with limited reporting, pursuant to literal law, as all can only see are general stacking orders and resulting electronic signals, which is not transparent. They can dodge conventional law suits, in good faith. So, to defeat them, one must think outside the box, and avoid at law actions, as those are dead from the start. One must avoid the eastern corruption as well. However, just because someone complies with gun licensing laws, does not mean one can cause blood in the streets. So, with cows abundant, one must move cost-effectively with the right skills in simple tort law seeking equitable relief. That is totally outside the box. And the keys skills are patent law, legal disdain, engineering, military scrimmaging at law, in the bullion content, with an anomalous psychology, of a suit brought in the right place, which is totally unconventional and untraditional, to take them down to then destroy the gold cartel. Meh ....

Jun 18, 2013 - 2:01am


The major problems anticipated are Jurisdiction Venue Actions and Plaintiff. Jurisdiction is placed in causes of action in tort law, avoiding CFCT position limits. Venue change is largely defeated by plaintiff locations and counsel locations. Actions are simple tort claims any judge can understand for case simplicity in equity for irreparable harm from a lack of price discovery, where remedial injunctions are sought, to effectively deny continue price manipulation crimes, naked short selling fraud, selling treasonous to china with TARP ZIRP QE likely failure of FRNs, breach of fiduciary using clients money for cascade down smash where clients to not get FMV, front running signaling for racketeering conspiratorial control of the gold cartel. The plaintiff are selected to include Service, US Mint Wholesalers and Retailers. Two of each general type for six named plaintiff, v JPM, and the plaintiff will represent the whole of the US but weighted from the gun toting US center to the west, and so, TFMR, LMPC CMI GoldCtr, AMark, GoldNCoins are the six preferred plaintiffs, and like a heard of cows in an unknown forest with JPM wolves about, like the gold experts, they can only be moved into action exploiting a heard mentality, after funding, which is fine, and so, TX CA IL NE CA AZ goes up against JPM led wall street in Freedom v Greedster as the parties, and where IL CA CA TX lawyers go up against JPM NY lawyers, for defeating venue change into a NY jurisdiction, supported by judicial notice showing unduly influence there. So the venue chance is defeated, and the jurisdiction by an east coast state or US agency is defeated by injunctions couched in terms of Chinese Walls, FIFO inhouse and client funds, Staggered time wise sales, and Threshold amounts, to avoid special sales jurisdiction of CFTC. The added benefit is that, one appearance is all that is needed by all experts and plaintiffs who can function as auxiliary experts thereby reducing substantially logistics, where primary, secondary, tertiary experts are divided by plaintiff primary counsel for direct examination, as the auxiliary experts are divided by proximal and distal local counsel for direct examination, and REID of counsel (takes 3 weeks to get bar license reinstated), is the cross-examining hit man, the vicious ruthless attack dog upon defendant's experts, for ripping butt holes into defendant's case while humiliating JPM experts, because REID just loves butt hurt. :o

ZZ Top Sharp Dressed Man
ZZ Top Tush
Wyatt Earp - Gunfight at the O.K. Corral in HD 1080p
Jun 17, 2013 - 5:39am


Morning all. Morning synthentic amphetamine, to get tail in gear. Cheers! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1DDgNCLD84 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UaJAnnipkY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGAV8wvYdVI Beach boy Tune: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FS7SUFz36lg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zs2lL625Yy8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zs2lL625Yy8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eab_beh07HU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XULyDTDIsHk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfTnf4AiN4Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcLbS0yxzdk So what is it, really, what is the enslavement? Its actually called Totalitarianism by Government unduly influenced by fascist Greedsters and Banksters and Lawyers of Wall Street. What are the enablers? Printable paper money and IRS thuggery demanding paper money taxes. How do you change federal taxes? You make tax collection a pay-and-forget system by a national sale tax, and give the earth a break. One should first destroy paper money because it is printable for immediate results. Where do you attack? Not Government directly, they are merely undue influenced, but you must attack the fascists in Wall Street extending thier fascist control. Where to you attack in Wall Street. You dont attack the NY law firms or Banksters they are secondary fascists, but attack the commercial weak link, and that is the Greedsters. Which one? The mob boss, of course. And how do they sustain the paper money? Buy the gold cartel. What is that? The gold cartel comprises 15 large bullion banks controlling the bullion space and led by its mob boss, JPM. The attack plan seeks to assassinate the mob boss among the bullion banks of the gold cartel, that is, the king pin in the bullion space, and put their executives in jail for treason. Next, because the attack plan can be replicated, the attack plain can be applied to picking off the remainder of the bullion banks left in the gold cartel, thereby utterly destroying the gold cartel, thereby liberating bullion price discovery, thereby concurrently destroying in turn the FRN and the all paper money, thereby liberating those enslaved by paper money, to thus free the people in the US and world wide and free mankind from totalitarian rule. Its all about freeing the people from Governmental totalitarian rule, without attacking government directly, in a cost effective manner. You mean, for 6m$ with a one year 2-5 time rate of return for a financier, people world wide can be freed from Government Totalitarianism? Certainly. The attack plan is good to go, and fool proof, to assassinate the king pin mob boss of the gold cartel. But, the question remains, can gold notables or any one with means who is seriously concerned, play Raider Football.

Jun 16, 2013 - 9:02am


being nice, I suppose, but honey, its not used or really welcome, these days, but surely the kind thought is appreciated, bless her soul, but really, give it your buddy friend, we will like it, just got no time or use for it, these days, but that is a far cry from the mid 90s, when friends by the 10s would come by, every afternoon, on forest avenue, down town laguna beach, and hang for hours, to join in celebrating, the daily ritual, watching beautiful chicks cruise by in the sun, as always, it was a parade, right in front of the parked tables, and when a tener would come by, literally, we would all get up, if we could, and go out on the side walk and give it up, the standing ovation, and that was just a riot, as the pitchers flowed empty time again, it was happy hour, at the main gig on the main throughout fare, and man did we rock, funnier than holy crap on a horse, but that was the mid 90s, and today is today, a different time, a different life, with a new mission in life, to end TBTF TBTJ in the land of the free, to free mankind, and that is enough for any mortal desire, with two litte black belts kicking booty and a sweet honey, so really, just dont need or want that chit around these days, to keep the mind 100% razor sharp at all times, as the brainwaves pass in and out, with those vicious ruthless sneaky plans 24/7, being devised, even when sleeping, so do me and the world a huge favor, and just give it away to joe six pack.

Marvellettes - Don't Mess With Bill
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