A Broader Perspective

525
Tue, May 14, 2013 - 11:37am

Time is short but I do have something interesting for you to consider today.

Look, there's a lot going on that will make tomorrow's gold (and silver) "market" different from yesterday's. Regardless, I still believe it's useful to look at yesterday's market in order to forecast where we might be going based upon where we have been.

Today, we're going to look at the Continuous Commodity Index. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous_Commodity_Index. Here's a little background info from the Wiki page:

"The 17 components of the CCI are continuously rebalanced to maintain the equal weight of 5.88%. Since CCI components are equally weighted, they therefore distribute evenly into the major sectors: Energy 17.65%, Metals 23.53%, Softs 29.41% and Agriculture 29.41%. While other commodity indices may overweight in certain sectors (e.g. Energy), the CCI provides exposure to all four commodity subgroups."

So, first, let's look at a 25-year chart. Some of you may not even have been alive at the start of this chart. Personally, I was just graduating from college and chasing my then-sweetheart to San Francisco. (That's an interesting story but we'll save it for another day.) The point is: This chart covers a lot of ground and time. Therefore, it is to be respected.

Notice that for the first half of the chart, the action is sideways. From 1988 to 2002, the index fluctuated in roughly a 50-point range. Though there was some action in individual commodities from time to time, overall the sector was a real yawner. The sideways action actually goes back even further, to the early 1980s, when interest rates were raised to choke the money supply and curb inflation. So, for roughly 20 years, commodities in general sucked.

Then what happened? The debt-induced easy growth of the 90's finally popped in 2001 and it has been off to the races for commodities ever since. Sure there have been pauses and corrections along the way but there also been periods of blowoff, parabolic rallies, too. In the end, though, the trend has remained. Here, see for yourself:

So now let's look a little closer. On the five-year, weekly chart below, you can see where we currently stand. Of course, I've tried to draw the trendline as accurately as possible but it's impossible to show exactly where it currently lays. Needless to say though, we're pretty much right on top of it. So there are three things to consider:

  1. First and foremost, is this 11 year bull market in commodities over? Did commodities go sideways for 20 years only to have a bull market end after just 10 years? Look at it another way...Have the fundamental conditions which prompted this bull market changed? Are the Fed and other central banks about to embark on a Volcker-esque tightening spree?
  2. Could commodities in general (and, by extension, gold and silver) bounce and rally right here and right now, just like they did the on the last two occasions they encountered the main trendline in late 2008 and mid 2012?
  3. Are commodities about to over-shoot again, similar to the circled area on the monthly chart above? If so, could a final drop toward 500 or even 475 be in the cards? IF that were to happen, what would be the short-term impact on the price of gold? Of silver? Would you finally capitulate/panic and sell or will you rely on your answers to the questions posed in point #1 above?

OK, gotta stop there but that should give you plenty to think about and discuss for a while. Have a great day and let's hope that CIGA BoPolny/BoPelini/BoDiddley/BoJackson is proven correct.

TF

About the Author

Founder
tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()

  525 Comments

  Refresh
SilverSurfers
Jun 26, 2013 - 8:29am

Rock Stars

The Final Dream Team

==============================================
Eric King =============== Broadcaster
Chris Powell ============ Broadcaster
Greg Hunter ============= Broadcaster
Bill Murphy ============= Plaintiff Dream Team Lemetropolecafe
Turd Ferguson =========== Plaintiff Dream Team TFMetalsreport
Bill Haynes ============= Plaintiff Dream Team CMI
Thor Gjerdrum =========== Plaintiff Dream Team AMark
James Hausman =========== Plaintiff Dream Team Gold Center
Brian Crumbaker ========= Plaintiff Dream Team Goldline
James Turk ============== Expert Dream Team
Richard Guthrie ========= Expert Dream Team
James G Rickards ======== Expert Dream Team
Grant Williams ========== Expert Dream Team
Eric Sprott ============= Expert Dream Team
Ben Davies ============== Expert Dream Team
William Kaye ============ Expert Dream Team
Sandeep Jaitly ========== Expert Dream Team
Andrew McGuire ========== Expert Dream Team
==============================================
The Rock Star Show
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BU_2oNF9CZE

SilverSurfers
Jun 26, 2013 - 6:15am

brainwave

With TARP ZIRP QE, pumping dollars chasing fewer commodities, the price of commodities should be going up. Down action is caused not my market forces, but necessarily flows from market rigging. This simple stupid is what get judges attention real fast. and would be great as a first line of the prolog statement by PROXIMAL COUNSEL at the hearing to enjoin. Bang, if you face. Dream team has been notified. ============= Eric King --------------- Broadcaster Chris Powell ------------ Broadcaster Greg Hunter ------------- Broadcaster Bill Murphy ------------- Plaintiff Dream Team Turd Ferguson ----------- Plaintiff Dream Team Bill Haynes ------------- Plaintiff Dream Team Thor Gjerdrum ----------- Plaintiff Dream Team James Hausman ----------- Plaintiff Dream Tean Brian Crumbaker --------- Plaintiff Dream Team Dave In Denver ---------- Expert Dream Team Richard Guthrie --------- Expert Dream Team James G Rickards -------- Expert Dream Team Grant Williams ---------- Expert Dream Team Eric Sprott ------------- Expert Dream Team Ben Davies -------------- Expert Dream Team William Kaye ------------ Expert Dream Team Sandeep Jaitly ---------- Expert Dream Team Andrew McGuire ---------- Expert Dream Team

SilverSurfers
Jun 25, 2013 - 10:28am

Anyone

Anyone may pass this on to a lead or notable. Tally Ho!! War has been declared on the Gold Cartel, and JPM is the prime target. This is war. We extend no courtesy, no mercy, and no pity, and take no prisoners, as we fly the black flag into battle. W2_5hs_3c_xfers[at]yahoo[dot]com is the HQ communications center. ===== Sir, It is time to fill the rooster. You may pass along as you desire. Thanks, Derrick Michael Reid Mr X CEO Sprott Global Carlsbad, California Sir, It has been two difficult months, since the 4/29/20013 brainwave, but I went public with it. If successful, it will solve J Embry and E Sprott problems, and will solve many others' problems as well, mostly resolved by societal feedback loops. It took about 2 months, drafting the Coded Draft, perfecting marketing method implementations, and rewriting that coded draft into an English version. Next week the proposal is going to an editor for editing, so activation starts this July. Taking down JPM is something J Embry and E Sprott would want to hear about. But, I am sure they would like some screening up front, and you are selected for that purpose. So, the week after 6/30/2013, I could come down to Carlsbad for the entire day, as you deem fit and wish. The plan is fairly well organized and covers the bases. It would be best reviewed for rapid appraisal by one knowing the bullion space and a legal mind, and think it best you organize a team, as you wish, and send up a car to get me and take me to your carlsbad facility, driving and thinking for me is a huge no no. The basic thrust is on line as a marketing tool for advance review and funding, but it lacks specifics necessary, but would give you and others attending an advance read and understanding. I would also transmit that 142 page, single line spaced proposal to you personally, confidentially for an advanced review in advance of a planned conference at your facility. J Embry is the preferred confidential FINANCIER, and thus he is in the cross hairs, sort of speak, and is why I am writing you now. Mr J Embry and E Sprott would want to see a polished English plan of taking JPM completely out of the bullion space, as a first strike on destroying the Gold Cartel. So, if you desire, accordingly, I am available after 6/30/2013, any time. Sincerely, It is an honor to be your obedient servant Derrick Michael Reid, BS JD Laguna Beach California, W2_5hs_3c_xfers[at]yahoo[dot]com For your reference: https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/ https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/06/03/usa_nova_slang.thtml https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/05/29/freedom_v_tbtf_tbtj_gree... https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/06/06/usa_strike_on_the_evil_e... https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/users/silversurfers https://forum.astroempires.com/viewtopic.php?f=99&t=111935 https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4710/broader-perspective?page=10 https://usawatchdog.com/us-back-to-a-gold-standard-catherine-austin-fitts/ https://lemetropolecafe.com/CFFORUM/viewmessages.cfm?forum=7&topic=2221 Plaintiffs, Experts and Consultants There are many Gold Notables. Plaintiffs include service providers, retailers and wholesalers. Service providers provide URL cites with members who can regularly post comments as a private club of members. The two preferred service providers are TFMetalsreport and Lemetropolecafe. Plaintiffs preferably number six and have been identified in the dream team. Other unknown service providers can be listed as possible plaintiffs. Two retailers have been identified in the dream team. Other retailers can be listed possible plaintiffs. Two wholesalers have been identified in the dream team. Other wholesalers can be listed possible plaintiffs. There are nine listed PRIMARY SECONDARY TERTIARY EXPERTS. Other possible experts can be listed as standby experts, and be used as replacement or supporting experts. Others in the field can be listed as consultants to the case. These possible plaintiffs, standby experts and consultants generally have specific expertise within the field. Possible Plaintiffs and Standby Experts may be interviewed with supporting declarations prepared as supporting members of the TEAM and acts as replacements or added TEAM members to add weight to the cause. Consultants are behind the scene supporting experts, out of the lime light, and their names and roles kept confidential, but can be used to provide input to support the case. List of Supporting TEAM members =========================================================== Plaintiffs, named complainers of Record Possible Plaintiffs, replacement Plaintiffs and Experts Experts, named experts of Record Standby Experts, replacement Experts and Supporting Experts Consultants, Confidential Experts for Case Supports =========================================================== Plaintiffs, Counsel, and Experts share in any settlement only when officially made of record in the case. =========================================================== If you are a "Gold Notable" and would qualify as an expert in the bullion space, volunteers are gladly accepted. =========================================================== https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0CdcCnLdtE

SilverSurfers
Jun 24, 2013 - 10:26am

Theory

Brainwave, Sorry.

E Sprott is a supply guy. Understands general supplies. Now let say that JPM decides to sales 1000 tones of gold, in less than a minute, of course. Sprott testifies that they could not have it, possession, as new gold. Naked shorts could be minor forwards as legit future sales. So, Sprott would also testify that JPM shorts must be naked in fact, not possession, not acquired such miner forwards.

Aspects 0 1 2 sent to Editor. Robert McEwen Contacted

Joan of Arc volunteered to spiritually support the cause.

Graphics backup Communications computer on line.

Joan Tush and Sweethearts...

Joan Jett - I Hate Myself For Loving You [ Original HQ ]
I love Rock n roll - Joan jett The Blackhearts

And the three faces of eye ...

Video unavailable
Twisted Sister - We're Not Gonna Take It (Official Video)

Brainwave, Gold and Silver are not only special, and not really commodities but monetary metals, deserving of special treatment, no naked shorting, but Au and Ag are also found in the constitution retaining them as money.

SilverSurfers
Jun 23, 2013 - 3:43pm

Marketing

Mr Paul Peehl CEO Sprott Global Carlsbad, California

Sir,

It has been two difficult months, since the 4/29/20013 brainwave, but I went public with it. If successful, it will solve J Embry and E Sprott problems, and will solve many other's problems as well, mostly resolved by societal feedback loops. It took about 2 months, drafting the Coded Draft, perfecting marketing method implementations, and rewriting that coded draft into an English version. Next week the proposal is going to an editor for editing, so activation starts this July.

Taking down JPM is something J Embry and E Sprott would want to hear about. But, I am sure they would like some screening up front, and you are selected for that purpose.

So, the week after 6/30/2013, I could come down to Carlbad for the entire day, as you deem fit and wish. The plan is fairly well organized and covers the bases. It would be best reviewed for rapid appraisal by one knowing the bullion space and a legal mind, and think it best you organize a team, as you wish, and send up a car to get me and take me to your carlsbad facility, driving and thinking for me is a huge no no. The basic thrust is on line as a marketing tool for advance review and funding, but it lacks specifics necessary, but would give you and others attending an advance read and understanding. I would also transmit that 142 page, single line spaced proposal to you personally, confidentially for an advanced review in advance of a planned conference at your facility.

J Embry is the preferred confidential FINANCIER, and thus he is in the cross hairs, sort of speak, and is why I am writing you now. Mr J Embry and E Sprott would want to see a polished English plan of taking JPM completely out of the bullion space, as a first strike on destroying the Gold Cartel.

So, if you desire, accordingly, I am available after 6/30/2013, any time.

Sincerely, It is an honor to be your obedient servant Derrick Michael Reid, BS JD Laguna Beach California, W2_5hs_3c_xfers[at]yahoo[dot]com

For your reference: https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/ https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/06/03/usa_nova_slang.thtml https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/05/29/freedom_v_tbtf_tbtj_gre... https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/06/06/usa_strike_on_the_evil_... https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/users/silversurfers https://forum.astroempires.com/viewtopic.php?f=99&t=111935 https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4710/broader-perspective?page=10 https://usawatchdog.com/us-back-to-a-gold-standard-catherine-austin-fitts/ https://lemetropolecafe.com/CFFORUM/viewmessages.cfm?forum=7&topic=2221

Anchorman i'm kind of a big deal
SilverSurfers
Jun 23, 2013 - 8:15am

Talk Talk

There are many forms of communications. In the Bullion world we have yakty yak, which is the all talk and no go characterization. But in the real world, we have, spoken words which require vocal cords and ears, we have written which require hands and eyes, or brail requiring hands and hands, or electromagnetic which require transmitters and receivers, and we also have combinations, such as email where first hand to keyboard then to processor and transmitters then to receivers and processors and then to montiors. There are many forms of communications where human thought is moved from one physical place to another, and so, front running signaling is a form of communication, in the modner context in the information age. The TEAM of counsel is not only a vicious ruthless humiliating attack dog on Cross Examination, a specialty, but also a righteous SOB perfectly suited for the play in Equity, before the Church Bench, where morality is the determiner, is it fair, with a lift time of powdering and answering such questions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6aVuun8lvQ

SilverSurfers
Jun 22, 2013 - 11:18am

Finished

it, meh, what a pain, turning the double dutch into English. Now a couple of clean up passes and off to the editors. They are going to get an eye full!!! 150 pages single line spaced, you know, casual light reading. LOL!! Communicated with movie producers for funding. Next week start bullion notable funding logistics for funding. Next week will also start private placement funding logistics. Next week English editing by editors, so that by 6/30, me BD and anniversary, so me never forgets, Im sly that way, when the polished English version should be ready for distribution. So no more double dutch in the attack plan. So, for the last time, play it again sam.

Frankie Smith - Double Dutch Bus (Official Music Video)

So get ready, here I come, taking care of business.

GET READY RARE EARTH
Bachman Turner Overdrive-Taking care of business

Two in trudville will be the editors. And you cant touch that generousity to the cause, real stand up guys, we all depending on you two, to do a bang up job!!!!

SilverSurfers
Jun 22, 2013 - 8:14am

Funding

Movie Producer Financier

Advance copy of attack plan, Authorization to Make Movies, Authorization to use name and likeness of plaintiffs, counsel and experts, advance copy of press releases, advance copy of examination scripts.

Plaintiff share 1/3, 1/18 each Counsel Shire 1/3, 1/18 each Expert Share 1/3, 1/18 each

Private and Bullion Financier

Financier 1/4, prorated to funding team Plaintiffs 1/4, 1/26 each Counsel 1/4, 1/26 each Experts 1/4, 1/36 each

Experts can be added, individual shares prorated.

Plaintiffs can be added, individual shares prorated.

KISS funding and settlement sharing.

Lehman Brothers, Producers: Ruth Caleb, Lisa Osborne

Ruth Caleb Executive Producer Leopard Films Re: Freedom v TBTF TBTJ Greedsters Madam, You were selected as a primary candidate for movie rights due to your association with film Lehman Brothers.I invite you to review the following. Yours, Derrick Michael Reid

Calculating

Submitted by Mad5Hatter on June 21, 2013 - 9:31pm. to rock all of your worlds. So the Attack plan, soon to go to editor, which doubles as an agreement document, on the last page is the signature page, for the experts, counsel and plaintiffs, all 6+6+9 = 21 of them, for the one day hearing appearance, for mega bucks share of settlement, but the attack plan is not only peddled to some personal private fat cats, and if necessary to some bullion fat cat, for the doe, but also concurrently to Hollywood key movie producers, for production rights of the movie, with plaintiffs and experts and counsel, all becoming emulated personalities on the big screen. :0

Funding

Submitted by Mad5Hatter on June 22, 2013 - 4:18am. Movie Producer Financier Advance copy of attack plan, Authorization to Make Movies, Authorization to use name and likeness of plaintiffs, counsel and experts, advance copy of press releases, advance copy of examination scripts. Plaintiff share 1/3, 1/18 each Counsel Shire 1/3, 1/18 each Expert Share 1/3, 1/18 each Private and Bullion Financier Financier 1/4, prorated to funding team Plaintiffs 1/4, 1/26 each Counsel 1/4, 1/26 each Experts 1/4, 1/36 each Experts can be added, individual shares prorated. Plaintiffs can be added, individual shares prorated. KISS funding and settlement sharing. Lehman Brothers, Producers: Ruth Caleb, Lisa Osborne ===== https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/ https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/06/03/usa_nova_slang.thtml https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/05/29/freedom_v_tbtf_tbtj_greedsters.thtml https://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2013/06/06/usa_strike_on_the_evil_empire.thtml https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/users/silversurfers
https://forum.astroempires.com/viewtopic.php?f=99&t=111935
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4710/broader-perspective?page=10 https://usawatchdog.com/us-back-to-a-gold-standard-catherine-austin-fitts/

https://lemetropolecafe.com/CFFORUM/viewmessages.cfm?forum=7&topic=2221

CC Mel Gibson, Icon Productions

SilverSurfers
Jun 22, 2013 - 12:31am

Calculating

to rock all of your worlds. So the Attack plan, soon to go to editor, which doubles as an agreement document, on the last page is the signature page, for the experts, counsel and plaintiffs, all 6+6+9 = 21 of them, for the one day hearing appearance, for mega bucks share of settlement, but the attack plan is not only peddled to some personal private fat cats, and if necessary to some bullion fat cat, for the doe, but also concurrently to Hollywood key movie producers, for production rights of the movie, with plaintiffs and experts and counsel, all becoming emulated personalities on the big screen. :0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJOjTNuuEVw

SilverSurfers
Jun 21, 2013 - 6:35pm

Cartel II

Tentative, Best Guess 1. J P Morgan Chase (Mob Boss) 2. HSBC 3. Deutsche Bank 4. Citi Corp 5. Bank of International Settlement 6. Bank of Nova Sciotia 7. Barclays Bank 8. Wells Fargo 9. Bank of America 10.Goldman Saks 11.Barclays 12. USB 13. Cerdit Argicole 14. Societe General 15. Bank of Australia =======================

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion