A Broader Perspective

525
Tue, May 14, 2013 - 11:37am

Time is short but I do have something interesting for you to consider today.

Look, there's a lot going on that will make tomorrow's gold (and silver) "market" different from yesterday's. Regardless, I still believe it's useful to look at yesterday's market in order to forecast where we might be going based upon where we have been.

Today, we're going to look at the Continuous Commodity Index. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous_Commodity_Index. Here's a little background info from the Wiki page:

"The 17 components of the CCI are continuously rebalanced to maintain the equal weight of 5.88%. Since CCI components are equally weighted, they therefore distribute evenly into the major sectors: Energy 17.65%, Metals 23.53%, Softs 29.41% and Agriculture 29.41%. While other commodity indices may overweight in certain sectors (e.g. Energy), the CCI provides exposure to all four commodity subgroups."

So, first, let's look at a 25-year chart. Some of you may not even have been alive at the start of this chart. Personally, I was just graduating from college and chasing my then-sweetheart to San Francisco. (That's an interesting story but we'll save it for another day.) The point is: This chart covers a lot of ground and time. Therefore, it is to be respected.

Notice that for the first half of the chart, the action is sideways. From 1988 to 2002, the index fluctuated in roughly a 50-point range. Though there was some action in individual commodities from time to time, overall the sector was a real yawner. The sideways action actually goes back even further, to the early 1980s, when interest rates were raised to choke the money supply and curb inflation. So, for roughly 20 years, commodities in general sucked.

Then what happened? The debt-induced easy growth of the 90's finally popped in 2001 and it has been off to the races for commodities ever since. Sure there have been pauses and corrections along the way but there also been periods of blowoff, parabolic rallies, too. In the end, though, the trend has remained. Here, see for yourself:

So now let's look a little closer. On the five-year, weekly chart below, you can see where we currently stand. Of course, I've tried to draw the trendline as accurately as possible but it's impossible to show exactly where it currently lays. Needless to say though, we're pretty much right on top of it. So there are three things to consider:

  1. First and foremost, is this 11 year bull market in commodities over? Did commodities go sideways for 20 years only to have a bull market end after just 10 years? Look at it another way...Have the fundamental conditions which prompted this bull market changed? Are the Fed and other central banks about to embark on a Volcker-esque tightening spree?
  2. Could commodities in general (and, by extension, gold and silver) bounce and rally right here and right now, just like they did the on the last two occasions they encountered the main trendline in late 2008 and mid 2012?
  3. Are commodities about to over-shoot again, similar to the circled area on the monthly chart above? If so, could a final drop toward 500 or even 475 be in the cards? IF that were to happen, what would be the short-term impact on the price of gold? Of silver? Would you finally capitulate/panic and sell or will you rely on your answers to the questions posed in point #1 above?

OK, gotta stop there but that should give you plenty to think about and discuss for a while. Have a great day and let's hope that CIGA BoPolny/BoPelini/BoDiddley/BoJackson is proven correct.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  525 Comments

pforth
May 14, 2013 - 7:28pm

Bo Polny not looking good...

If yesterday was the turn date for silver, I hate to tell you but it's lower today. Of course, maybe you're just off by a day so I'll cut you some slack ;)

ancientmoney
May 14, 2013 - 7:36pm

Public participation in PMs?

Designed not to happen. China makes it easy for their people to buy gold and silver--banks sell it most everywhere in urban areas. The governmeent there even advertises the wisdom of PM investing.

Here? No such thing. PMs are denigrated as archaic useless items of yore, unfit for modern usage.

Nobody knows how to buy them, in general. They must be sought out in relatively tiny retail, mom & pop stores.

ETFs were created to further obfuscate and frustrate PM purchases.

Public will be unlikely to ever participate to a level that will make a difference. That does not diminish the importance however, as the ROW is going that way.

alan2102
May 14, 2013 - 7:49pm

foggyroad

"Ten minutes, make up your own mind:
The Complete Idiot's Guide to the New World Order"

That was about just one portion of the "new world order" or very high-level power structure -- as I say, more properly called the "old world order": the U.S./U.K/Israel/Japan/Western-Europe/OECD axis, represented on a high level institutionally by the Bilderberg group, the CFR, NATO, the IMF, and the World Bank. But then there is another, competing world order in the making, represented by the BRICS, centered on the Eurasian land mass, particularly the Eastern portion of it.

SilverSurfers
May 14, 2013 - 7:54pm

Podcast

catch up, been distracted in never never land of lates, but turd did great on SD weekly, nice show, great vocals, good prodcast, lots of info, got the feel of the flow, which is where its at. Just Saying.

Harald
May 14, 2013 - 7:59pm

.

.

The Watchman
May 14, 2013 - 8:01pm
Just A Regular Guy
May 14, 2013 - 8:01pm

About Bo Polny

Sounds like Bo-LONEY to me. I find it interesting that Santa says TA is useless and that fundamentals win yet posts TA on his page? It doesn't bother me, he can do whatever he wants, it's his jig, but there's definitely conflicting messages there....

I'm in the gold going to 1300-1100 camp, then higher.... The chart is being painted with a perfect dead-cat bounce! Smash down coming this Friday in my opinion..... but WTFDIK ;)

Peace

alan2102 John Galt
May 14, 2013 - 8:05pm

John Galt

Thanks for your reply. I guess I'm still not convinced that the East/West rivalry is an illusion. But I'll think on it some more.

One thing: you write: "there is definitely a competition between east and west on a certain level, be it some combination of political, economic and military. This gets played out in visible arenas such as television where national leaders either vocally or through actions (such as moving troops/ships/aircraft) play out roles to look after their own national interests."

In addition to competition on political, economic and military fronts, there is arising competition on the monetary front -- competition sure to intensify in coming years (maybe even coming months!). The U.S./U.K./etc. axis is the dollar-based/paper-based system, and the BRICS, especially the traditional cultures of India (gold) and China (silver), as well as the Islamic world, are metal-based systems in their essence. They USE paper instruments, of course; that is a necessity in the current world in which dollars and paper are hegemonic. What I am saying is that metal is "in their blood" and will recrudesce when it is given the opportunity -- which could be quite soon. Of course, the U.S./U.K./etc. will move heaven and earth to maintain the dollar over metal, since that is the linchpin (apart from raw military power and force) of the empire's global power. As such, favoring gold and silver is in effect voting for the BRICS block and against the U.S./U.K/etc. axis. It is easy to see how this could be construed by some (crazy people) as "financial terrorism" or treason -- a thought that gives me the heebie-jeebies, now and then.

SRSrocco
May 14, 2013 - 8:06pm
Hunt brother
May 14, 2013 - 8:28pm

Ted Nugent to replace Bernanke Jan. 2014

Ted Nugent -Stranglehold

A young Ted rocks "Stranglehold"

Warning! Explicit language, live concert.

foggyroad alan2102
May 14, 2013 - 8:43pm

@alan2102

"Ten minutes, make up your own mind:
The Complete Idiot's Guide to the New World Order"

That was about just one portion of the "new world order" or very high-level power structure -- as I say, more properly called the "old world order": the U.S./U.K/Israel/Japan/Western-Europe/OECD axis, represented on a high level institutionally by the Bilderberg group, the CFR, NATO, the IMF, and the World Bank.

" But then there is another, competing world order in the making, represented by the BRICS, centered on the Eurasian land mass, particularly the Eastern portion of it."

**********

Financial Structures are being put into place by the BRIICS, ie. SCO, an ASEAN, and other developments granted, and agreed.

The Central Banks, of these Nations are controlled by Whom?

The Shanghi Gold exchange is a Rothschild enterprise, the Rothschilds and Rockefellers merged a short while ago, and are internationalists.

They have business interests everywhere in the world BRIIICS included.

They owe loyalty to no sovereign, and with their immense wealth can sway the top echelons of any nation, think top level politburo members, what maybe a hundred real powerful members in China, or Russia.

I think the only thing holding up the NWO, is the United States of America, and the Constitution.

Once these two obstacles are removed, there will be four zones as per the documentary, all under one government, and one currency.

NWO types favor the communist type of government, and with a corporate entity in penultimate control.

SilverSurfers
May 14, 2013 - 8:51pm

Baltic

dry ice index continues in dumpster, indicates global economic trade as well, in the broad perspective, always a good reliable indicator, while global stocks go gang busters, go figure, have, its a farce bought by some for short terms profits, trading.

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/5/14_T...

The Watchman
May 14, 2013 - 9:01pm

SGE-Only 1.3 Tons of Gold Have Been Delivered Since April 19

Chinese Gold Exchange Sold Out - Begins Importing From Switzerland Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/19/2013 14:02 -0400



Submitted by Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society Runs Out of Gold... Importing from Switzerland and London

Hong Kong’s Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society has been in operations for over a century, and it’s President Haywood Cheung was interviewed by Bloomberg news earlier today. Whoever orchestrated the attack on gold and silver in the last week or so has gravely miscalculated, since the response to the drop has been surging demand for physical gold and silver. While I tend to be skeptical when I hear about silver shortages since these reports have been so exaggerated in the past, the lack of silver coin availability and premiums are the most extreme I have seen since the financial and economic meltdown of 2008. Now we discover that the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society has essentially sold out of gold bullion, and must wait until Wednesday for shipments to arrive from Switzerland and London.

Average:
Wizard
May 14, 2013 - 9:02pm
Karankawa
May 14, 2013 - 9:09pm

Wizard

Great eagle post.

alan2102 foggyroad
May 14, 2013 - 9:27pm

foggyroad, continued...

foggyroad: "The Central Banks, of these Nations are controlled by Whom?"

I don't see them as controlled by anyone; they are part of a matrix of controllers, including many parties: corporations, the super-rich (old money), high government officials, other financial figures, etc. They are all players in a complex matrix of control. As far as I can see. (Or I should say attempted control. There's evidence that some things are escaping their grasp. It is a dynamic situation!)

"I think the only thing holding up the NWO, is the United States of America, and the Constitution."

I think the U.S. is integral to the "NWO", or let's just say to the WO -- World Order. After the British empire collapsed, after WWII, the baton was passed to the U.S. The U.S. now spearheads a global empire. The USSR and Warsaw Pact nations stood in its way for a while, but now that resistance is gone. The U.S. has been unopposed since 1989. It is only the rise of the BRICS that now threatens the U.S./U.K./etc. empire. Or BRIICS (include Iran).

"NWO types favor the communist type of government, and with a corporate entity in penultimate control."

Communism has been dead for decades, and is unlikely to make a come-back. Fascism is more likely to come back into fashion. Indeed it already is coming back, in forms. Feudalism, too.

John Galt alan2102
May 14, 2013 - 9:29pm

@alan2102 re: East vs. West

I do agree that on ground level we have many tensions at play - all we have to do is look at Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Chechnya, North Korea etc. In this realm the rivalry is very real.

The illusion is what is taking place in the illusionary world of fiat finance. At the very upper echelons of THAT realm of the fiat currency world - which is run the puppet masters behind the likes of Blankfein, Dimon, Blythe et al - the "East/West rivalry" is highly irrelevant IMO, other than as a tool to keep the ignorant masses occupied and distracted and continually in debt.

On a macro level I think there's a move to create an all encompassing global currency system that all governments - East and West - will benefit from. At this level of the monetary world I believe there is more cooperation than rivalry.

3 years ago the G20 Summit was held in Toronto. Membership of the G20 includes not only the traditional G7 members of the West but also BRIC+ other nations.

A friend of mine is highly placed in police services and he was very involved in organizing security for that summit. He said there were 3 rings of security there. The outer one was the one most of us saw on television, such as fencing and highly armed security forces. Within the outer ring was a second layer of security, and within that was a third layer.

My friend went on to say that the innermost ring was virtually impervious to most security, and what was especially interesting was that there were security forces there protecting " big money people" who were carrying more clout than any politicians. Secret Service agents protecting Obama had to clear certain checkpoints by showing ID etc., but my friend said that there was one security group on hand (Blackwater types, he said) who carried exotic weapons like he had never seen before who did not have to stop at any checkpoint at any time. They had carte blanche run of the place in ways that even Obama's security didn't have.

Whatever was happening behind closed doors at those meetings (involving big money interests and East/West politicians) it is clear that this is not something the rest of us were supposed to be privy to, especially when the MSM was more interested in showing images of burning police cruisers caused by the "riot" than covering the real news.

Bugzy The Watchman
May 14, 2013 - 9:30pm

Swiss to China Gold

In a few days!

Obviously a complete load of bollocks....takes at least 5 years to move Gold from one country to another, ask any German.

Karankawa
May 14, 2013 - 9:36pm

@ Turd. Great thread post. Thanks for pointing out ..

the CCI index.

I'm sure that most here are aware of it. I'm also sure many also are aware that the Main Stream Media generally references the CRB as THE Commodity Index.

Check out the wiki def of the CRB here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomson_Reuters/Jefferies_CRB_Index

And speaking of 25 year charts, here is the chart of of the CCI/CRB

https://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/825/ccivscrb.png/

(sorry, it seems I can't find the embed code for this)

In 2005 both Gold and the USD were rising. Think a little more than a little MOPE has been applied since then?

Texas Sandman
May 14, 2013 - 9:57pm

davey is a troll

Don't feed him. For god's sakes don't try engaging him in anything. I've been close to using the ignore on him in the past, but this last post did it. Ignore button.

DayStar
May 14, 2013 - 10:20pm

Harvey's Up!

David Yanofsky, of Bloomberg has discovered that in Jan February 1 billion usa dollars worth of gold was shipped to South Africa. One possible destination for the gold is the South African Mint, which produces legal-to-own gold coins called Krugerrands. This may have been needed due to severe gold shortage as a result of the miner strike. The fact they had to import may indicate a much more severe drop in production than was reported. • Harvey: Neither GLD or SLV reported any change in inventory as they are exactly the same as Monday's level. The total Comex gold had inventories of around 11 million oz in 2011. Today it fell to 7.943 million oz. Japan had another violent session (the third one in three days) with the 10 year bond yield rising another 9 basis points. • DS: There is a rumor of repatriation of trillions in unwanted US dollars coming home over the next few weeks. • David Schectman (Miles Franklin): If the bond market's Bull Run is over, then interest rates by definition must rise. • DS: Rising interest rates will signal the beginning of hyperinflation and the ending of our economy. • William Kayne: ABN AMRO doesn't have any gold. And if you check the public information, JP Morgan has almost no gold. They are at modern era record lows in their warehouses. The Comex, as of the last report I looked at, had under 200 tons of gold. That's also a modern era record low, against enormous liabilities to deliver gold. • Harvey: Seems that the EU is getting ready for the big bail in. If this is contemplated then I can assure you that many of the rich depositors will buy gold or switch to other safe havens. ​• Manisha Gupta: The Indian retail sellers and bullion associations are expecting the sales on Akshay Tritiya and this week to be higher by 30-40 per cent as compared to last year same time. • William Kaye: Show me another bear market where demand goes up as prices collapse. You can't. It hasn't happened in history. ​• SmartknowledgeU: We can never be sure of when the day will arrive when one opts to sell out of their physical stack of PMs and then tragically, is unable to re-buy it. I believe this risk is not worth taking. All this and more on...

The Harvey Report!

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/597491#comment-597491

DayStar

Boswell
May 14, 2013 - 10:37pm

Dialogue 05/14/2013 China's gold frenzy

CCTV interview show on latest Chinese Gold buying... https://english.cntv.cn/program/dialogue/20130515/100626.shtml Charles Liu, Chairman of HAO Capital & Owen Hegarty, Executive Vice Chairman of G-Resources Group (Miners) talk with host. Nothing new to this group, but interesting to hear the Chinese take on their own markets.

dropout
May 14, 2013 - 10:46pm

Freight Container Rate Increase

Haphag-Lloyd

Effective July 1, 2013, rates on the far east westbound trade will increase by $1,000 USD per TEU.

Implementation of a Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) of $650 USD per TEU to the Mediterranean and $500 USD per TEU to northern Europe will also apply.

https://www.haphag-lloyd.com/en/news/news_page_29598.html

Gent
May 14, 2013 - 10:47pm

Additional Harvey

{This guy sounds very similar to Andy McGuire. Harvey said he sent this article to the CTFC}

Starting with...
Indisputable Proof Paper Gold Markets are Massively Manipulated
Submitted by smartknowledgeu on 05/14/2013 06:01 -0400

Middle with ...
Raids precisely predicted withing the past few weeks .. Details


Ending with ...
In conclusion, as someone that predicted huge declines in the gold spot price last week on three separate occasions, please understand that the same understanding of these banker gold and silver price manipulation games that led to the accuracy of my calls last week is also what leads me to conclude that the banking cartel price manipulation games in PM markets are unsustainable, on their way to imploding, and will eventually result in much higher prices in all gold/silver assets in the future. Yes, all gold and silver assets have suffered thus far this year in performance, but always remember that a focus on truth versus propaganda will always drive proper decisions when it comes to accumulating gold and silver assets and help one identify buying opportunities when they exist and further prevent one from being a "weak hand" that sells into banker manipulation ploys when Central Banks execute such fraud.

{See Day Star's link above}

Sheetrocker I Run Bartertown
May 14, 2013 - 10:50pm

@IRB RE: US Energy

Your post made me recall this story from 2009.

"Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower"

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added.

https://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-internationa...

I have noticed the MSM increasingly promoting this idea of the US becoming "the new Saudi Arabia" for the last few years.

Due to the work of SRSrocco, and a little research of my of my own, I am convinced this is totally false. People can believe what they want, but I see this as another example of MOPE. What I don't know is the full reasoning behind it.

tyberious
May 14, 2013 - 10:50pm

Good Read

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/5/15_H...

Kaye: “Look at what’s happening to GLD and these other exchange traded products. The gold is being looted, and it’s being looted in a systematic way. GLD is a great example because it is by far the biggest gold ETP (exchange traded product) in the world.

Who can deal for gold with this exchange traded product? Who can deal with the Trustee? Only ‘bankster’ banks. 15 bankster banks deal with Bank of New York Mellon who is the Trustee (of GLD), and negotiate the price based off of the London fixing, which is (also priced by) 5 bankster banks, the same crime family....

“Off of that London fixing they transact to get physical (gold) out of HSBC London, another bankster bank. That’s the custodian. That’s where the vault is. The process is pretty simple.

Most of the time it works according to one formula: They (conspiring banks) short the COMEX futures, which GLD tracks by design, into the London fix in order to get an attractive price at which they can transact for physical gold. Then, at some point in New York time, typically both GLD and the COMEX futures will trade down further below that London PM fix.

That is the price at which the bullion banks gobble up the shares of GLD at a discounted price, and redeem them in minimum lots of 100,000 (shares). That’s about $14 million US. So you can rule out most investors and certainly almost all retail. They present these discounted GLD shares to Bank of New York Mellon, who then cancels the shares and releases (physical) gold from HSBC London.

They (Bank of New York Mellon) give the instruction out to HSBC to release the gold to the bankster banks. Now this is a very profitable business. The banksters are making money in two ways: First of all they are arbitraging the spread between the discounted price at which they buy GLD, because with the Fed’s help they are manipulating the futures price down.

The second thing is normally they take their foot off the brake a little bit in my time in Asia, because demand is very high here with the price so low, they allow the price in Asia to go up a bit. Things tend to recover in Asia time before we rinse and repeat.

What they (then) do is the bullion banks sell the physical gold, which they acquired at a very attractive price, at a profit in Asian (trading) time. So there are two sources of profit: One is the arbitrage profit, which occurs in New York time, and the second is the profit off of the discounted, manipulated physical price that they receive for selling at a higher level in Asia.

So this is a great business for the bankster banks. The same people who rigged LIBOR, I’m telling you are very obviously rigging the gold market. It’s so obvious that only the mainstream media would not be able to figure this out.”

IMPORTANT - Part IV of William Kaye’s extraordinary written interview series will be released in few hours. Also, Part II of his audio interview will also be released and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE.

Karankawa
May 14, 2013 - 10:50pm

For those that found the Karen Hudes interviews ...

posted here over the weekend, she was interviewed on the Pete Santelli show today:

"Special Guest First Hour: Karen Hudes studied law at Yale Law School and economics at the University of Amsterdam. She worked in the US Export Import Bank of the US from 1980-1985 and in the Legal Department of the World Bank from 1986-2007. She established the Non Governmental Organization Committee of the International Law Section of the American Bar Association and the Committee on Multilateralism and the Accountability of International Organizations of the American Branch of the International Law Association."

https://petersantilli.com/

Personally I think she is a shining example of a highly educated, very trusting, good person that woke up and realized she has been naively supporting world banking corruption. I think she's still a bit naive, but she has dug in her heals and I believe is trying to do the right thing.

Also, she states she has been in 'discussions' with a 'Canadian Gold Expert'. (Why does Sprott come to mind?)

I'm listening to the interview a second time because I'm probably not a mensa.

That said, I know the light of truth crushes corruption and I'm enthused.

Beastly Stack
May 14, 2013 - 10:54pm

Make or break

For the Dollar and Gold, I would greatly appreciate this being shared. Thanks in advance!

https://tradermartinstake.blogspot.com/2013/05/its-time-my-friends.html

Zoltan
May 14, 2013 - 10:58pm

Down the Memory Hole

Damn it my post disappeared.

Silver Lease Rates
May 14 2013 Change
1M 0.1926% -0.0011
2M 0.2295% -0.0010
3M 0.2688% -0.0008
6M 0.4182% -0.0026
1Y 0.6900% -0.0056

These are the new lease rates on Kitco. See my previous post in this thread for what they showed earlier today. Notice the change doesn't add up to a positive rate. Anyone remember when I posted a rate of -15% in the middle of the night back in December? Thought not.

Z

Karankawa
May 14, 2013 - 11:02pm

Hey Turd! It might be hard to pull off, but I think an effort

to try is worth thinking about.

We have the 20 year Legal Head of the fucking World bank singing like there is no tomorrow, doing everything she can to get the 'word' out. You have a relationship with our friend Willie that also seems to want to spread the truth.

YOU, may be the guy that could get them to agree to and interview that would go viral plus.

Think about it, after listening to the interview I posted above.

And once again, Thank You Sir For Creating this Community!

Karankawa

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