A Broader Perspective

Tue, May 14, 2013 - 11:37am

Time is short but I do have something interesting for you to consider today.

Look, there's a lot going on that will make tomorrow's gold (and silver) "market" different from yesterday's. Regardless, I still believe it's useful to look at yesterday's market in order to forecast where we might be going based upon where we have been.

Today, we're going to look at the Continuous Commodity Index. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous_Commodity_Index. Here's a little background info from the Wiki page:

"The 17 components of the CCI are continuously rebalanced to maintain the equal weight of 5.88%. Since CCI components are equally weighted, they therefore distribute evenly into the major sectors: Energy 17.65%, Metals 23.53%, Softs 29.41% and Agriculture 29.41%. While other commodity indices may overweight in certain sectors (e.g. Energy), the CCI provides exposure to all four commodity subgroups."

So, first, let's look at a 25-year chart. Some of you may not even have been alive at the start of this chart. Personally, I was just graduating from college and chasing my then-sweetheart to San Francisco. (That's an interesting story but we'll save it for another day.) The point is: This chart covers a lot of ground and time. Therefore, it is to be respected.

Notice that for the first half of the chart, the action is sideways. From 1988 to 2002, the index fluctuated in roughly a 50-point range. Though there was some action in individual commodities from time to time, overall the sector was a real yawner. The sideways action actually goes back even further, to the early 1980s, when interest rates were raised to choke the money supply and curb inflation. So, for roughly 20 years, commodities in general sucked.

Then what happened? The debt-induced easy growth of the 90's finally popped in 2001 and it has been off to the races for commodities ever since. Sure there have been pauses and corrections along the way but there also been periods of blowoff, parabolic rallies, too. In the end, though, the trend has remained. Here, see for yourself:

So now let's look a little closer. On the five-year, weekly chart below, you can see where we currently stand. Of course, I've tried to draw the trendline as accurately as possible but it's impossible to show exactly where it currently lays. Needless to say though, we're pretty much right on top of it. So there are three things to consider:

  1. First and foremost, is this 11 year bull market in commodities over? Did commodities go sideways for 20 years only to have a bull market end after just 10 years? Look at it another way...Have the fundamental conditions which prompted this bull market changed? Are the Fed and other central banks about to embark on a Volcker-esque tightening spree?
  2. Could commodities in general (and, by extension, gold and silver) bounce and rally right here and right now, just like they did the on the last two occasions they encountered the main trendline in late 2008 and mid 2012?
  3. Are commodities about to over-shoot again, similar to the circled area on the monthly chart above? If so, could a final drop toward 500 or even 475 be in the cards? IF that were to happen, what would be the short-term impact on the price of gold? Of silver? Would you finally capitulate/panic and sell or will you rely on your answers to the questions posed in point #1 above?

OK, gotta stop there but that should give you plenty to think about and discuss for a while. Have a great day and let's hope that CIGA BoPolny/BoPelini/BoDiddley/BoJackson is proven correct.


About the Author

tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()


Jul 15, 2013 - 10:23pm

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Spirit In The Sky Norman Greenbaum
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The Pledge of Allegiance
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The Battle Hymn of the Republic Glory! Glory! Hallelujah!
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YouTube List II

spirit in the sky Norman Greenbaum
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YouTube List

Johnny Rivers - Secret Agent Man
Mission Impossible - Original Intro ( 1966 - 1973 )
Goldfinger - Theme Song
James Bond 007 Movie Theme Music
I Spy Theme
The Man From UNCLE Theme (Long Version)
The Man From U.N.C.L.E. First season
Get Smart
Elliott Fisher - Theme From "Our Man Flint"1967 -
OUR MAN FLINT (TRAILER) James Coburn https://videorevo1.blogspot.com/
Tom Jones - Thunderball Theme (cre8gent)
From Russia With Love - Opening Titles (James Bond Is Back, From Russia With Love, James Bond Theme)
1967 - James Bond - You only live twice: title sequence
The Pink Panther Theme Song (Original Version)
It's A Mad Mad Mad Mad World (1963) Official Theatrical Trailer

President Ronald Reagan Clip: "Tear Down This Wall"
John F. Kennedy ask not what your country can do for you ask what you can do for your country
Just win baby
Rookie Kobe Bryant Slam Dunk Contest Highlights
Werewolves Of London
The Bonnie Blue Flag - Gods and Generals
Steelers Renegade AFC Championship game 2011
They Will Never Take Our Freedom - Braveheart (3/9) Movie CLIP (1995) HD
Loverboy - Turn Me Loose

"SECRETARIAT" Greatest Race Horse of All Time - Kentucky Derby Preakness Belmont Stakes 1973 Video

Elvis Presley - Jailhouse Rock (Music Video)

They Will Never Take Our Freedom - Braveheart (3/9) Movie CLIP (1995) HD

Beach Boys - Surfin Usa (Live, 14 March 1964)

Beach Boys " I Get Around " Live 1964

Jefferson Airplane -White Rabbit-

Beach Boys - Surfin Usa (Live, 14 March 1964)

Surfin' Safari-The Beach Boys-1962

Beach Boys-(my 409)

Beach Boys-(The little Old Lady From Pasadena)

The Beach Boys - Good Vibrations

The Everly Brothers "Bye Bye Love"


Cathy's Clown - Everly Brothers

When Will I Be Loved - Everly Brothers


The Everly Brothers - Dream

"March Of The Toys" - from "Babes In Toyland"

There Is No Reason We Cant Be CIVIL ,300 The Movie , By : Walid El Menshawey

Journey-Dont Stop Believing (official song) with lyrics

Frankie Smith - Double Dutch Bus

Bachman Turner Overdrive-Taking care of business

Michael Jackson - Thriller Music Video

Tom Tom Club - Suboceana

Belinda Carlisle - Heaven Is A Place On Earth

Spirit In The Sky - Norman Greenbaum Wyatt Earp - Gunfight at the O.K. Corral in HD 1080p Robin Trower-The Fool and Me. Technotronic - Pump Up The Jam Robin Trower; Bridge of Sighs, 1974 Robin Trower - Bridge of Sighs - 01 - Day Of The Eagle Heart - Never RATT - Round and Round (HD music video) Robin Trower - Bridge Of Sighs - 07 - Lady Love JFK Ask Not What Your Country Can Do For You

"Berlin Wall" Speech - President Reagan's Address at the Brandenburg Gate - 6/12/87

John F. Kennedy's speech in Berlin

Normandy Speech: Ceremony Commemorating the 40th Anniversary of the Normandy Invasion, D-Day 6/6/84 Geico Caveman Commercial, The Original
Geico Cavemen Commercials First Five Combo Neil Young - Rockin' In The Free World The Lone Ranger Opening Theme Song

Jeff Beck Group - I Ain't Superstitious

Sammy Hagar - I Can't Drive 55 TOPPOP: Ohio Players - Fire

Joan Baez - The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down

Heart - What About Love? Jimi Hendrix - Crosstown Traffic

Barry White - You're My First My Last My Everything

I will survive - Gloria Gaynor THE NAME GAME SHIRLEY ELLIS
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Steppenwolf - Magic Carpet Ride
Chronic and Habitual Liar
Technotronic - Pump Up The Jam
The Castaways - HD STEREO - Liar Liar
Heart - What About Love?
The Roy Rogers Show - Happy Trails To You The Secret World of Gold (Full Documentary) Do You Believe in Magic? Rock N' Roll All Night ( Good Quality ) - Kiss The Spinners Working My Way Back To You Girl The 5th Dimension Age of Aquarius 1969
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Christie - "Yellow River" (1970)
Steelers Renegade AFC Championship game 2011
Iron Man-Black Sabbath-Lyrics Included

Arthur Brown - Fire
Rick Astley - Never Gonna Give You Up

The Doors - The End

What A Day For A Day Dream - Loving Spoonful

Bon Jovi-Wanted Dead Or Alive

Mikey Life cereal commercial

Lulu - To Sir With Love

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The Temptations - My Girl - HIGH QUALITY - With LYRICS! Brenda Lee - I'm Sorry The Twist - Chubby Checker Neneh Cherry - Buffalo Stance Marvellettes - Don't Mess With Bill The Supremes--I Hear A Symphony
Patrick Hernandez - Born to Be Alive - Official Video (Clip Officiel) The Romantics - One In A Million Carpenters - Yesterday Once More( ORIGINAL VIDEO).mp4 ZZ Top Sharp Dressed Man ZZ Top Tush RAWHIDE Billy Idol - White Wedding Pt 1 i'm going to pick a fight INXS - Don't Change INXS - What You Need (HQ music video) INXS - Original Sin INXS - Devil Inside Love potion number 9, The Searchers Led Zeppelin- Whole Lotta Love Gold Diggers of 1933 - "We're in the Money" Doctor Doctor - Thompson Twins Anchorman i'm kind of a big deal I Wanna Rock- Twisted Sister I love Rock n roll - Joan jett The Blackhearts Twisted Sister - We're Not Gonna Take It (Official Video) Joan Jett - I Hate Myself For Loving You [ Original HQ ] Venus and Mars & Rock Show - Paul McCartney and Wings Madonna - Lucky Star [Long Version] (Video)
Jul 6, 2013 - 6:05pm

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From Russia With Love - Opening Titles (James Bond Is Back, From Russia With Love, James Bond Theme)
1967 - James Bond - You only live twice: title sequence
The Pink Panther Theme Song (Original Version)
The Man From U.N.C.L.E. First season
It's A Mad Mad Mad Mad World (1963) Official Theatrical Trailer

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