A Broader Perspective

525
Tue, May 14, 2013 - 11:37am

Time is short but I do have something interesting for you to consider today.

Look, there's a lot going on that will make tomorrow's gold (and silver) "market" different from yesterday's. Regardless, I still believe it's useful to look at yesterday's market in order to forecast where we might be going based upon where we have been.

Today, we're going to look at the Continuous Commodity Index. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous_Commodity_Index. Here's a little background info from the Wiki page:

"The 17 components of the CCI are continuously rebalanced to maintain the equal weight of 5.88%. Since CCI components are equally weighted, they therefore distribute evenly into the major sectors: Energy 17.65%, Metals 23.53%, Softs 29.41% and Agriculture 29.41%. While other commodity indices may overweight in certain sectors (e.g. Energy), the CCI provides exposure to all four commodity subgroups."

So, first, let's look at a 25-year chart. Some of you may not even have been alive at the start of this chart. Personally, I was just graduating from college and chasing my then-sweetheart to San Francisco. (That's an interesting story but we'll save it for another day.) The point is: This chart covers a lot of ground and time. Therefore, it is to be respected.

Notice that for the first half of the chart, the action is sideways. From 1988 to 2002, the index fluctuated in roughly a 50-point range. Though there was some action in individual commodities from time to time, overall the sector was a real yawner. The sideways action actually goes back even further, to the early 1980s, when interest rates were raised to choke the money supply and curb inflation. So, for roughly 20 years, commodities in general sucked.

Then what happened? The debt-induced easy growth of the 90's finally popped in 2001 and it has been off to the races for commodities ever since. Sure there have been pauses and corrections along the way but there also been periods of blowoff, parabolic rallies, too. In the end, though, the trend has remained. Here, see for yourself:

So now let's look a little closer. On the five-year, weekly chart below, you can see where we currently stand. Of course, I've tried to draw the trendline as accurately as possible but it's impossible to show exactly where it currently lays. Needless to say though, we're pretty much right on top of it. So there are three things to consider:

  1. First and foremost, is this 11 year bull market in commodities over? Did commodities go sideways for 20 years only to have a bull market end after just 10 years? Look at it another way...Have the fundamental conditions which prompted this bull market changed? Are the Fed and other central banks about to embark on a Volcker-esque tightening spree?
  2. Could commodities in general (and, by extension, gold and silver) bounce and rally right here and right now, just like they did the on the last two occasions they encountered the main trendline in late 2008 and mid 2012?
  3. Are commodities about to over-shoot again, similar to the circled area on the monthly chart above? If so, could a final drop toward 500 or even 475 be in the cards? IF that were to happen, what would be the short-term impact on the price of gold? Of silver? Would you finally capitulate/panic and sell or will you rely on your answers to the questions posed in point #1 above?

OK, gotta stop there but that should give you plenty to think about and discuss for a while. Have a great day and let's hope that CIGA BoPolny/BoPelini/BoDiddley/BoJackson is proven correct.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  525 Comments

SilverSurfers
May 14, 2013 - 12:28pm

So

according to William Kaye over at KWN, his audio is great, there are no abundant gold supplies, not piles left, that its all paper, then what is the big deal about GLD? Maybe someone shooting from the hip, just got a toe. Maybe its a head fake. Holder would be impressed. Where did that doubting tom go, away? Just Wondering Just Saying Just asking

See how that RICO crime hoodies fits in nicely with Kaye's perspective. :O

And the US Army and CIA aint giving up what is left at the Fort, and aint telling jack about it, as the last ditch defense to total anarchy, so sssshhhhh about that, for crying out loud.

https://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/5/14_...

That_1_Guy
May 14, 2013 - 12:29pm

Imagine that...im First....its a First.

Look ma...im number 1

GUY

Sorry Doc..like your site :)

Road_Scholar
May 14, 2013 - 12:35pm

If one costs more, then substitute

for the other- and they probably taste about the same too when it's not "real". Mmmmmm, random meat chunks...

(That's how the government does it with CPI)

realitybiter
May 14, 2013 - 12:40pm

mulligan mint

I've been watching the back and forth between Chris Duane and Rob Gray regarding what were obviosuly Chris' designs (Freedom Girl, Slave Queen, Debt and Death) and the Mulligan Mint taking them.....

I don't know the truth here - but I can share my experience:

I do know that I placed an order in January, was delayed and delay and delayed. In April I was told twice "hold on, I will go back to shipping and sort this out......(5 min later).....yes, your order was just packaged, and you will receive confirmation" Then nothing. No confirmation. Finally, weeks later, I had had enough and gave them the choice to produce a wire transfer refund, ship, or get sued. They shipped that day.

I have bought from a dozen different dealers over the last 12 years. This was the worst customer service ever. I bought from NW Territorial Mint in Jan 2011. They had delays then, too, BUT they never lied. They were consistent with their delays and kept their word. The same cannot be said of the Mulligan Mint. Lie, after lie, after lie.

Jut the truth folks. That was my experience.

What do I think happened? I think they are very shady - but that is my opinion. I think they used money received for orders to purchase equipment and then didn't have enough money to buy the metal to produce the orders....somehow the money was misused. The "I'm in shipping right now" reminds me of the scene out of "Boiler Room": go to 1:20....great movie:

Boiler Room Giovanni Ribisi "reco scene" Vin Diesel Closing the Sale

Will I order anything from them again? No way. You simply don't lie like that without repercussions.

SIlverbee
May 14, 2013 - 12:45pm

Miners

Why is it that the stock markets are at new highs but the G/S mining sector is at multi year lows?

Can anyone explain the fundamental reasoning that CNBC might use to explain this.

Surely it is an obvious indicator of manipulation?

SIlverbee
May 14, 2013 - 12:46pm

@philipat

I did not buy the dip. I am in far enough. Having followed the meme's BTFD and keep stacking I am now waiting for affirmation.

The annoying thing is I know it is the right thing to do both fundamentally and righteously but the PTB are done with the natural laws of economics. It seems every time they appear to be in a corner just like Batman they find a way out. The only way to win is to bet with the house.

John Galt tyberious
May 14, 2013 - 12:47pm

@tyberious re: BRICS vs NWO

I am more than a little sceptical about the East vs. West and BRICS vs. NWO theory.

On a very macro level I believe that the various large central banks are all controlled by the same entity, and the "competition" or rivalry we perceive is nothing more than illusion.

Several years ago there was a video floating around around that was an interview of a movie producer by the name of Aaron Russo. In the late 1990s Russo became friends with one Nicholas Rockefeller who told him that an "event" would happen in the Fall of 2001 which would result in a futile war on terror where soldiers would be looking for non existent terrorists in caves. Russo at the time thought it was all BS until things unfolded the way Rockefeller said they would.

Here is a segment of that interview:

https://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=wD7wOUM4IEQ&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dw...

On a whim I decided to look up Rockefeller's name to see what he is up to now.

https://www.nicholasrockefeller.org/wikipedia/

Based on his website he's heavily involved with banking and business interests in China.

So my point is that if the Rockefeller family is part of the NWO interests in America why are they integrating themselves so deeply with one of the biggest BRICS players at the same time unless, of course, they're gaming both sides?

Also given that Rockefeller apparently told Russo that the new currency to come would be a fully digital one, I have to wonder how stackers will "sell" some or all of their stack after the reset when banksters will have full control and knowledge of all transactions and be able to tax and seize at will.

The Watchman
May 14, 2013 - 12:48pm
Hunt brother
May 14, 2013 - 12:53pm

Gold price rises into the London fix...

Then the COMEX paper shorts take it down.

London fix involves delivery of physical gold.

Naked shorting on the COMEX is counterfeit gold.

Upseting to see the rampant circulation of counterfeit gold.

Hunt brother
May 14, 2013 - 1:01pm

Re:silver bee. Miners

Mining stocks are call options on the value of gold in the ground.

with current metal "prices" below production costs, the miners are "out of the money" call options.

The HUI went from 150 to 600 off the 2008 low.

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