A Broader Perspective

Tue, May 14, 2013 - 11:37am

Time is short but I do have something interesting for you to consider today.

Look, there's a lot going on that will make tomorrow's gold (and silver) "market" different from yesterday's. Regardless, I still believe it's useful to look at yesterday's market in order to forecast where we might be going based upon where we have been.

Today, we're going to look at the Continuous Commodity Index. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous_Commodity_Index. Here's a little background info from the Wiki page:

"The 17 components of the CCI are continuously rebalanced to maintain the equal weight of 5.88%. Since CCI components are equally weighted, they therefore distribute evenly into the major sectors: Energy 17.65%, Metals 23.53%, Softs 29.41% and Agriculture 29.41%. While other commodity indices may overweight in certain sectors (e.g. Energy), the CCI provides exposure to all four commodity subgroups."

So, first, let's look at a 25-year chart. Some of you may not even have been alive at the start of this chart. Personally, I was just graduating from college and chasing my then-sweetheart to San Francisco. (That's an interesting story but we'll save it for another day.) The point is: This chart covers a lot of ground and time. Therefore, it is to be respected.

Notice that for the first half of the chart, the action is sideways. From 1988 to 2002, the index fluctuated in roughly a 50-point range. Though there was some action in individual commodities from time to time, overall the sector was a real yawner. The sideways action actually goes back even further, to the early 1980s, when interest rates were raised to choke the money supply and curb inflation. So, for roughly 20 years, commodities in general sucked.

Then what happened? The debt-induced easy growth of the 90's finally popped in 2001 and it has been off to the races for commodities ever since. Sure there have been pauses and corrections along the way but there also been periods of blowoff, parabolic rallies, too. In the end, though, the trend has remained. Here, see for yourself:

So now let's look a little closer. On the five-year, weekly chart below, you can see where we currently stand. Of course, I've tried to draw the trendline as accurately as possible but it's impossible to show exactly where it currently lays. Needless to say though, we're pretty much right on top of it. So there are three things to consider:

  1. First and foremost, is this 11 year bull market in commodities over? Did commodities go sideways for 20 years only to have a bull market end after just 10 years? Look at it another way...Have the fundamental conditions which prompted this bull market changed? Are the Fed and other central banks about to embark on a Volcker-esque tightening spree?
  2. Could commodities in general (and, by extension, gold and silver) bounce and rally right here and right now, just like they did the on the last two occasions they encountered the main trendline in late 2008 and mid 2012?
  3. Are commodities about to over-shoot again, similar to the circled area on the monthly chart above? If so, could a final drop toward 500 or even 475 be in the cards? IF that were to happen, what would be the short-term impact on the price of gold? Of silver? Would you finally capitulate/panic and sell or will you rely on your answers to the questions posed in point #1 above?

OK, gotta stop there but that should give you plenty to think about and discuss for a while. Have a great day and let's hope that CIGA BoPolny/BoPelini/BoDiddley/BoJackson is proven correct.


About the Author

tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()


May 23, 2013 - 11:06pm


as ice, just ice cold, then they say revenge is best served ice cold, but so is, slamming them on the freaking mat with the body slam, using their weight against them, but here, vanilla ice, knocked out cold, using every disadvantage to advantage, for the three count, just butcher them puppies without mercy or pity, being just way ice ice cold baby about it all, they will pay the price digging for gold, Silly Putty is nice, ice cold, that way.

Vanilla Ice - Ice Ice Baby
Cold As Ice - Foreigner (1977)
May 23, 2013 - 6:39pm


up, one of Sillys closest 20 year pals in laguna tuna land runs an entertainment service, hiring bands for various gigs, who comes in regular contact with bands, having some very well off band members, with international record distributions, and being pissed off as heck at the banksters and greedsters unduly controlling the people and government, and thus a funding match, so the word will start to get out for yet another fancy pants replacement, if necessary, and that would only mean finding a suitable mouth piece for KWN to rally the folks per the plan, so, the hunt is on for another fancy pants, if the present one gives no feedback, so silly puttys pal is heading out on highway for another one coming. Just Hoping.

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May 23, 2013 - 5:51pm


King James aka Tangent Missile as possible back up or a front line precision torpedo, as a remote controlled possible surprise shot or back up shot to hindsight capitalist and Sugar Cane, and King James is also a shark uncover with bullion, politics, venture capital, and economic expertise, loading bow tubes of the attack submarine with the best of best, and King James is a 5 hatter 3rd order 3 sigma guy from the git, with a monster mass spectral density metal intellectual cube signature. Just Hoping for now.

Monster Mash
May 23, 2013 - 5:04pm

Marketing II

Marketing Kiss of The Secret World of Gold

Just keeping it straight, TF metal folks finally getting suspicious. A good indicator that the target has no clue, a good thing. Using Astro Empires Forum for indirect communications, as those people have absolutely no clues.

Bullion Space: T Ferguson 2ed Target Package Posted segmented TF direct by email; J Embry 2ed Target Package through Dark Mole; J Sinclair Teaser; Livermore Teaser; J Rickards Teaser; Kirby Teaser; Russell Teaser; Pento Teaser, Doctor Teaser, Political Space: Ron Paul Teaser; Paul Criag Roberts Teaser; D Issa Congressman Teaser; J Campbell Congressman Teaser, GOP Teaser; and, News Space: Hunter Teaser; King Teaser; Keiser Teaser; Celente Teaser; Durban Teaser; Barnes Teaser.

===========Teaser========================== Sir, I can take down JPManipulator, and end this nonsense.
Please carefully consider the following 3 cites as you wish.
The country needs saving, and we all must do our duties.
Most Respectfully, DM Reid BS JD
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4710/broader-perspective?page=10 =========================================== https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIuAnP9xfxw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UWRypqz5-o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJrbHapH5pM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Amzp7W0RkPA
May 23, 2013 - 3:12pm


a go go, waiting to happen, a beach party, and when that happens, SWEET as honey.

Vacation - The Go-go's
Beach Blanket Bingo
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May 23, 2013 - 2:26pm


Silver is the more intelligent play, if you can hold physical in possession, long time, with rock solid stacking strong hands, then that is the play, but right now, the manipulators are trying to wash people out, weak hands, and into central bank hands, by manipulating the paper crimex price down, so the people end up with little, and central banks end up with nearly it all, with the 1% greedster converting paper money to bullion, when paper money fails and gold rockets to between 7500/oz and 44,000/oz in present dollar terms, as the gold to silver ratio now at 60 goes to 10 in real relative value in purchasing power through intrinsic worth of bullion, during a paper money reset, as the bansters and greedster give the folds the bird, as the central banksters become buyers of bullion of last resort, for a six time increase of silver over gold, and hence, then, central bankster rule the real money bullion roost and 1%er convert paper to bullion to continue control of governments with bullion in hand for continued undue influence, and the people are screwed, called highway robbery, once again, by the central banksters and 1%er greedsters. So, silver is the 5x ((60-10)/10) play, if you can man up, or before then, cause a humpty dumpty.

The Trashmen - Surfin Bird - Bird is the Word 1963 (RE-MASTERED) (ALT End Video) (OFFICIAL VIDEO)
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May 23, 2013 - 1:42pm


max makes excellent point in episode 448 where wall street get zero percent interest for the fed, showing undue influence upon another FED agency, to obtain free money to buy back stock to run the dow higher, while the people's money is given to wall street free, so the 1%er can continue the greedster game, undue influence showed by the comprehensive whole of US courts, agenies, regulators, presidency, in the full court press strangle hold upon the US government, this has to stop, and only the circus master can save the country, of course, of course, as the economy stagnants, free falling contrary to the dow record levels, and something must be wrong, and a snap to prove, interrogatory, how many shared did you buy in year so and so, and through judicial notice, prove ZIPR, easy as pie, and let the circus master put two and two together, piece of cake.

Tom Petty - Free Fallin'
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Tom Petty And The Heartbreakers - The Waiting
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Listen to her Heart, Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers
May 23, 2013 - 12:42pm


practitioner, in the turdistan jail steps into the shoes of fancy pants, the funder, and sprott only eyes from afar, and the practitioner gets 200% money back, minimum, come settlement time, for a multiple bagger, with 6m$ to fund and 6mo from lift off, is expected time, keeping the funding in the turdistan jailhouse, in celestial computer verus the manipulator, and the commanding shark, the star, gang, fancy pants, rear guard shark, and one precision toperdo all in house already in the trudistan jail, for yet further increased in minimal logistic lines, additionally physically close to the tent, making the practitioner the preferred funder, just staying flexible, always. Just thinking, as always.

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The practitioner now being is Silly Puttys cross hairs.

May 23, 2013 - 12:37pm


the celestial complainer could not only rocket himself in to hyperspace, but any funding bullion supplier as well. WOW BABY, THATS HEAVY :O But you business types with them on line MBAs, lol, already got that, as VC is not one of Silly Putty's Worlds, so, Silly Putty is a tad slow here, so, Silly Putty gets a pass.

Metallica - Enter Sandman [Official Music Video]

Heeeeeeellllllllllooooooo Doc, Doc, Doc ..... Someone wake his tail up, please.

May 23, 2013 - 11:37am


bulb went off, April 29, and in 3 weeks had a 200 page, single line space attack plan fully developed. Hows that for rocking your worlds? And now to funding, the trip up, if any. Lets see how smart Sprott and co really are.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHr50SiLTXs IF | TF Metals Report - Page 17 Apr 29, 2013 ... NIRVANA baby, NIRVANA!!!!, after a decade of getting up to speed, trapped in dead ends, and searching for the missing piece, finally ... www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4673/if?page=16 Neutral net burned in and computer tools freakin ON LINE, all systems a go go.

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